Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Insights - The total retail sales in China for 2025 reached CNY 501,202 billion, with a year-on-year growth of +3.7%. December's retail sales showed a modest increase of +0.9% [25][34] - The retail sector is experiencing a gradual recovery, with service retail outperforming goods retail. Online sales are rebounding, while offline supermarkets, convenience stores, and specialty shops are performing relatively steadily [4][27] - The high-end traditional gold market is expanding, with brands like Laopu Gold gaining traction among high-net-worth consumers, supported by strong sales during promotional events [34][38] Summary by Sections Retail Sector Overview - The retail and social service indices reported increases of 2.16% and 3.20% respectively from January 19 to January 23, 2026, with the retail index ranking 16th among 31 sectors [6][15] - The jewelry sector has shown the highest growth, with an increase of 8.66% in the past week and 11.51% year-to-date [18][20] Consumer Trends - Essential consumer goods are stable, with food and oil products performing particularly well. In contrast, optional consumer goods show mixed results, with cosmetics and jewelry performing better than clothing and home appliances [31][33] - The online retail market for physical goods reached CNY 130,923 billion in 2025, growing by +5.2%, accounting for 26.1% of total retail sales [27][30] Investment Recommendations - Focus on high-quality companies in high-demand sectors driven by emotional consumption themes, particularly in gold and jewelry, with recommendations for brands like Laopu Gold, Chao Hong Ji, and Chow Tai Fook [7][41] - Emphasize offline retail companies adapting to market changes and AI-enabled cross-border e-commerce leaders, recommending companies like Yonghui Supermarket and Aiyingshi [7][39] - Highlight domestic beauty brands that innovate in emotional value and safety, recommending brands like Mao Ge Ping and Proya [7][39] - Consider differentiated medical beauty product manufacturers and expanding chain medical institutions, with recommendations for companies like Meili Tianyuan and Aimeike [7][39]

Group 1: Macroeconomic Insights - The U.S. inflation rate for December 2025 was reported at 2.7% year-on-year, aligning with market expectations, while core CPI rose by 2.6%, slightly below expectations [5][6] - Energy inflation has significantly decreased, with December energy prices rising by only 2.3% year-on-year, down 1.9 percentage points from November [7] - The overall inflation level is expected to continue declining due to high base effects in early 2025, although potential rebound pressures may arise from fiscal policies and economic support measures [8][9] Group 2: Real Estate and Construction Sector - Poly Developments (600048.SH) has adjusted its headquarters structure to enhance management efficiency, maintaining its leading position in the industry [26][30] - The company reported a total sales amount of 121.6 billion yuan in December 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 18.9%, but it remains the top seller in the industry [28] - The company’s land acquisition in major cities accounted for over 85% of its total, with a total land acquisition amount of 771.3 billion yuan in 2025, reflecting a 13.0% year-on-year increase [29] Group 3: Media and Entertainment Sector - Xindong Company (02400.HK) saw its game "Heart Town" achieve over 500 million downloads shortly after its international launch, indicating strong performance and potential for future revenue growth [32][33] - The company plans to leverage partnerships with well-known IPs to enhance user engagement and revenue streams, particularly during peak seasons [32][34] Group 4: Retail Sector - Chao Hong Ji (002345.SZ) anticipates a significant increase in net profit for 2025, projecting a year-on-year growth of 125% to 175%, driven by brand enhancement and market expansion [36][37] - The company has successfully expanded its store network, reaching a total of 1,668 stores by the end of 2025, with a notable increase in new store openings [37]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Insights - The company is expected to achieve a significant increase in net profit attributable to shareholders in 2025, with a forecasted growth of 125% to 175%, resulting in a net profit of 436 million to 533 million yuan [5] - The company has successfully expanded its store network, reaching a total of 1,668 stores by the end of 2025, with a net increase of 163 stores during the year [6] - The company is enhancing its international presence, particularly in Southeast Asia, demonstrating the cross-cultural appeal of its designs [6] - The company is focusing on product differentiation and has launched new products that blend traditional culture with modern fashion [7] - The financial projections indicate a steady increase in revenue and net profit over the next few years, with expected revenues of 8.52 billion yuan in 2025 and 10.46 billion yuan in 2026 [9] Financial Summary - The company’s revenue is projected to grow from 5.9 billion yuan in 2023 to 12.56 billion yuan in 2027, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 20.1% [9] - The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to rise from 333 million yuan in 2023 to 960 million yuan in 2027, with a notable increase of 148.2% in 2025 [9] - The earnings per share (EPS) is forecasted to increase from 0.38 yuan in 2023 to 1.08 yuan in 2027, indicating strong profitability growth [9] - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is projected to decrease from 34.6 in 2023 to 12.0 in 2027, suggesting an attractive valuation over time [9]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Viewpoints - The retail industry is undergoing an evolution in the "people, goods, and scene" framework, driven by emotional consumption, which presents new opportunities for growth [3][25] - High-end gold and fashion jewelry are gaining traction among consumers, with a focus on product differentiation and cultural significance [3][32] - The cosmetics industry is innovating through the IP of technical ingredients and cultural confidence, enhancing product appeal and market competitiveness [3][37] - Offline retail is shifting from selling "goods" to offering "services and experiences," with companies like Yonghui Supermarket leading the transformation [3][41] Summary by Sections Retail Market Overview - In 2025, the retail sector index closed at 2422.59 points, with an annual increase of 8.21%, underperforming the Shanghai Composite Index, which rose by 18.41% [5][14] - The retail industry ranked 23rd among 31 sectors in terms of performance [15] Industry Dynamics - The emotional value is driving consumer intentions, with a focus on "research-based consumption," "self-satisfaction," and "long-termism" as key decision-making trends [25][28] - High-end gold is becoming a preferred asset for wealth preservation, while fashion gold is appealing to younger consumers through innovative designs and social media engagement [32] - The cosmetics sector is witnessing a shift towards self-developed core ingredients and cultural narratives, enhancing brand value [37] Investment Recommendations - Focus on high-quality companies in the emotional consumption theme, particularly in the gold jewelry sector, with recommendations for brands like Chao Hong Ji and Lao Pu Gold [6][50] - Emphasize offline retail companies adapting to market changes, such as Yonghui Supermarket and Ai Ying Shi [6][48] - Highlight cosmetics brands that innovate in emotional value and safety, including Mao Ge Ping and Po Lai Ya [6][48] - Consider differentiated medical beauty product manufacturers and leading medical beauty institutions, recommending companies like Ai Mei Ke and Ke Di-B [6][48]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the retail industry is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Insights - The retail industry index rose by 6.66% in the week of December 15-19, 2025, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 6.63 percentage points, ranking first among 31 primary industries [6][15] - The launch of the Hainan Free Trade Port has shown promising initial results, with duty-free sales reaching 118 million yuan on the first day and a significant increase in the number of zero-tariff goods [4][25][26] - The report emphasizes the importance of consumer sentiment and the potential for high-growth sectors within the retail space, particularly in jewelry, offline retail, cosmetics, and medical aesthetics [7][30][31] Summary by Sections Retail Market Review - The retail industry index closed at 2458.79 points, with a weekly increase of 6.66% [6][15] - The supermarket sector saw the highest weekly increase of 14.18%, while the commercial property sector led with a year-to-date increase of 22.51% [17][19] Industry Dynamics - The Hainan Free Trade Port officially commenced operations on December 18, 2025, with a focus on "one line open, two lines controlled, and free trade within the island" [4][25] - The proportion of zero-tariff goods increased from 21% to 74%, covering approximately 6,600 items, which is expected to reduce import tax burdens by about 20% for related enterprises [26][25] Investment Themes - Investment Theme 1: Focus on high-end jewelry brands with differentiated product offerings, recommending companies like Chow Tai Fook and Lao Pu Gold [7][30] - Investment Theme 2: Emphasize offline retail companies adapting to trends and AI-enabled cross-border e-commerce leaders, recommending Yonghui Supermarket and Aiying Room [7][30] - Investment Theme 3: Highlight domestic cosmetics brands that meet emotional value and safety ingredient innovations, recommending brands like Maogeping and Proya [7][31] - Investment Theme 4: Focus on differentiated medical aesthetics product manufacturers and leading chain medical institutions, recommending Aimeike and Kedi-B [7][31] Company-Specific Insights - Chow Tai Fook reported a revenue of 38.986 billion HKD for FY2026H1, with a slight decline of 1.1% year-on-year, while net profit increased by 0.1% [37] - Lao Pu Gold achieved a revenue of 12.354 billion HKD for FY2025H1, marking a significant increase of 250.9% year-on-year, with net profit rising by 285.8% [36] - Yonghui Supermarket's revenue for the first three quarters of 2025 was 42.434 billion yuan, down 22.2% year-on-year, with net profit showing a significant loss [44]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the retail industry is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Insights - The Ministry of Commerce has set a positive tone for the retail industry, emphasizing the importance of quality and service-driven transformation. Retailers with strong supply chain advantages and the ability to adapt are expected to benefit [25][27] - Yonghui Supermarket is undergoing a significant transformation focused on product centralization, with 222 stores modified by the end of September 2025. The company has seen a recovery in same-store sales and is enhancing its product quality and differentiation [27][29] Industry Overview - The retail industry index closed at 2305.32 points, down 0.21% for the week, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index, which fell 0.34% [5][14] - The supermarket sector showed the highest increase among retail sub-sectors, with a weekly rise of 10.73% [17][20] Investment Recommendations - Focus on high-quality companies in sectors benefiting from emotional consumption themes, including: - **Gold and Jewelry**: Recommend brands like Chow Tai Fook and Chow Hong Kee, which are expected to benefit from differentiated product offerings [6][29] - **Offline Retail**: Highlight companies like Yonghui Supermarket and Ai Ying Shi, which are adapting to market changes [6][29] - **Cosmetics**: Recommend domestic brands that emphasize emotional value and innovative safe ingredients, such as Maogeping and Proya [6][29] - **Medical Aesthetics**: Focus on differentiated product manufacturers and expanding medical chains, recommending companies like Aimeike and Kedi-B [6][29] Company-Specific Insights - **Yonghui Supermarket**: The company reported a revenue of 424.34 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, down 22.2% year-on-year, with a net loss of 7.10 billion yuan. The company is in a transformation phase aimed at quality retail [31][43] - **Chow Tai Fook**: The company achieved a revenue of 389.86 billion HKD for FY2026H1, down 1.1%, with a net profit of 25.34 billion HKD, up 0.1%. The company is optimizing its product structure and store quality [36][38] - **Chow Hong Kee**: The company reported a revenue of 62.37 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, up 28.4%, with a net profit of 3.17 billion yuan, up 0.3%. The company is expanding its franchise model and enhancing product differentiation [39][40]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is optimistic (maintained) [1] Core Insights - The report highlights the rapid growth of high-end skincare products in China, with a projected compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 13.8% from 2024 to 2029 [28] - Lin Qingxuan, a high-end domestic skincare brand, is positioned to capitalize on this growth, having updated its IPO prospectus, indicating a potential acceleration in its capital process [25][28] - The report emphasizes the importance of emotional consumption themes and recommends focusing on high-quality companies in high-growth sectors [6][32] Summary by Sections Retail Market Overview - The retail industry index closed at 2310.07 points, down 0.83%, underperforming the Shanghai Composite Index, which rose by 0.37% [5][14] - Among the retail sub-sectors, the professional chain segment saw the largest increase, while the jewelry sector led the year-to-date performance with a 20.56% rise [17][20] Company Focus: Lin Qingxuan - Lin Qingxuan achieved a revenue of 1.05 billion yuan in H1 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 98.3%, with a net profit of 180 million yuan, up 109.9% [25][28] - The brand's core product, camellia oil, has dominated the facial oil sales market for 11 consecutive years, establishing a strong market presence [25][28] - Lin Qingxuan's online and offline revenue contributions were 65.4% and 34.6%, respectively, with a total of 554 stores, the highest among domestic and international high-end skincare brands [25][28] Investment Themes - Investment Theme 1: Focus on high-end jewelry brands with differentiated product offerings, recommending companies like Chow Tai Fook and Lao Pu Gold [6][32] - Investment Theme 2: Emphasize offline retail companies adapting to market changes and AI-enabled cross-border e-commerce leaders, recommending Yonghui Supermarket and Aiyingshi [6][32] - Investment Theme 3: Highlight domestic beauty brands that meet emotional value and safety ingredient innovations, recommending brands like Maogeping and Proya [6][32] - Investment Theme 4: Target differentiated medical beauty product manufacturers and expanding chain medical beauty institutions, recommending Aimeike and Kedi-B [6][32] Company Performance Highlights - Chow Tai Fook reported a revenue of 38.986 billion HKD in FY2026H1, a slight decline of 1.1%, but a net profit increase of 0.1% [39][40] - Chao Hong Ji achieved a revenue of 6.237 billion yuan in Q1-Q3 2025, up 28.4%, with a net profit increase of 0.3% [42] - The report notes that companies like Proya and Marubi have shown strong performance in the beauty sector, with Proya's revenue reaching 7.098 billion yuan in Q3 2025, up 1.9% [34][35]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1][11]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 6.237 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 28.35%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 317 million yuan, up 0.33% year-on-year. Excluding goodwill impairment, the net profit was 488 million yuan, a significant increase of 54.52% year-on-year [4][5]. - The jewelry business saw a revenue increase of 53.55% year-on-year in Q3 2025, with net profit rising by 86.80%, indicating strong performance [5]. - The company is focusing on expanding its store network, with a total of 1,599 jewelry stores as of September 2025, including 1,412 franchise stores, which exceeded the opening target [6]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - Latest closing price: 12.20 yuan - Total shares: 889 million, circulating shares: 867 million - Total market value: 10.8 billion yuan, circulating market value: 10.6 billion yuan - 52-week high/low: 17.39/4.75 yuan - Debt-to-asset ratio: 36.1% - Price-to-earnings ratio: 55.45 [3]. Financial Performance - In Q3 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 2.135 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 49.52%. The net profit was -14 million yuan, down 116.52% year-on-year, but excluding goodwill impairment, the net profit was 157 million yuan, up 81.54% year-on-year [4][5]. - The gross profit margin for Q3 2025 was 21.93%, a decrease of 2.27 percentage points year-on-year, while the sales expense ratio was 8.23%, down 4.02 percentage points year-on-year [7]. Future Outlook - The company plans to open 20 jewelry stores in overseas markets by 2028, with a focus on Southeast Asia, and aims to establish a Hong Kong headquarters to manage international operations [6][10]. - The "1+N" brand strategy will be implemented to capture emerging markets and trends, with ongoing upgrades to the FION brand and the development of the Cevol brand [10][11]. Earnings Forecast - Projected revenue growth rates for 2025-2027 are 23%, 18%, and 16%, respectively. The net profit growth rates are expected to be 130%, 49%, and 25% for the same period [11][13].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The retail industry is experiencing a shift towards emotional consumption, with brands that possess differentiated product capabilities and deep consumer insights gaining traction [31] - The report highlights the strong performance of the jewelry sector, particularly in high-end and fashion segments, driven by consumer preferences and innovative marketing strategies [31][39] Summary by Sections Retail Market Overview - The retail index closed at 2384.72 points, down 0.51% for the week, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index, which fell 1.30% [6][13] - Year-to-date, the retail index has increased by 6.51%, lagging behind the Shanghai Composite Index's 13.97% rise [13][15] Key Industry Dynamics - The report emphasizes the successful autumn ordering meeting of Chao Hong Ji, showcasing strong demand for new products rooted in traditional craftsmanship and innovative designs [25][26] - The jewelry sector, particularly the high-end and fashion categories, is benefiting from emotional consumption trends, with brands like Lao Pu Gold and Chao Hong Ji recommended for investment [31][39] Company Performance Highlights - Lao Pu Gold reported a revenue of 12.354 billion yuan for H1 2025, a 250.9% increase year-on-year, with a net profit of 2.268 billion yuan, up 285.8% [33][36] - Chao Hong Ji achieved a revenue of 4.102 billion yuan in H1 2025, reflecting a 19.5% increase, with a net profit of 331 million yuan, up 44.3% [39][40] - The report also highlights the performance of other companies such as Mao Ge Ping and Ru Ben, which are experiencing significant growth in the cosmetics sector [32][42] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on high-quality companies in the emotional consumption theme, particularly in the jewelry and cosmetics sectors, with specific recommendations for Lao Pu Gold, Chao Hong Ji, and Mao Ge Ping [7][31][32]