一篇读后感，竟促成了一场超过40万播放量的深度对谈！ 韦青老师这篇附赠于《黄仁勋：英伟达之芯》的文字，让播客「无人知晓」主理人孟岩感慨： " 认识韦青老师，是因为在《黄仁勋：英伟达之芯》这本书的附录里，我看到了一篇他的读后感。那是我 第一次觉得，一本书的读后感可以比书本身还要精彩。也是我第一次意识到，读后感可以写得如此认真， 如此动人 。" 它没有跟风追逐黄仁勋和英伟达的光环，而是直戳时代痛处：在信息过剩、变化快到让人焦虑的今天，我 们到底该如何进化思维，才能继续"活得像一个真正的人"？ 韦青老师的洞察，为我们提供了一套超越技术的 生存哲学 。它拒绝追逐表面的成功，反而聚焦在那些"沉 寂的、被忽略的、但极其关键的力量"上。 比成功更重要的三个常识： 1.幸存者偏差： 为什么只学习"成功经验"是最大的"拦路虎"？因为成功只是小概率事件，真正的智慧是掌 握"改错的本事"。真正的强者，必须有"勇于接受失败，并愿意承担后果的魄力"。 2.系统效应： 别只看构成木桶的"长板"！真正的领袖，不是"静态的领先者"，而是暂时的现任者，遵循的 是一种动态、灵活、充满活力的无限游戏规则；像冰球皇帝格雷茨基一样，永远滑向"冰球即将 ...

Core Insights - The article discusses a significant surge in DRAM memory prices, particularly a 156% increase in the price of a 32GB DDR5 memory kit within a month, attributed to a combination of market panic, AI-related demand, and supply chain issues [2][3]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - OpenAI signed unprecedented agreements with Samsung and SK Hynix on October 1, securing 40% of global DRAM supply, which caught the industry off guard [5][6]. - The secrecy surrounding these agreements led to widespread panic among competitors and suppliers, as they were unaware of the scale and timing of OpenAI's actions [7][9]. - The lack of safety stock in the market was exacerbated by tariff confusion, declining prices, and halted second-hand DRAM manufacturing, leaving the market vulnerable [11][12]. Group 2: Impact on Products - The immediate impact of the memory shortage is categorized into different levels of urgency for various products: - S Level: Memory itself is in critical shortage, with prices skyrocketing [15]. - A Level: Solid State Drives (SSDs) are at risk due to their price lagging behind DRAM changes [16]. - B Level: NVIDIA graphics cards have some buffer but are still at risk, especially high-capacity models [19]. - C Level: Laptops and smartphones are currently safe but may face issues once inventory runs out [20]. - D Level: PlayStation is well-prepared due to prior procurement [21]. - E Level: Products without memory, like CPUs, may see price drops due to decreased demand [22]. Group 3: Future Considerations - The article emphasizes that even if the memory shortage is alleviated, the market will remain chaotic for at least the next 6 to 9 months due to long delivery cycles for DDR5 [15]. - There is a call for deeper investigation into OpenAI's financial practices and their impact on the memory market, highlighting concerns over their aggressive accumulation of resources [22].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the historical and contemporary significance of companies like Nvidia and the Dutch East India Company (VOC), drawing parallels between their market dominance and the implications of their economic power in their respective eras [5][8][60]. Group 1: Historical Context - The Dutch East India Company (VOC) is considered the highest-valued company in history, with a peak valuation equivalent to approximately $7.9 trillion today, representing two-thirds of the GDP of the Netherlands at that time [5][6]. - The VOC was the first joint-stock company and played a crucial role in global trade, particularly in spices, leading to significant economic advantages for the Netherlands over other European powers [6][7]. Group 2: Nvidia's Market Position - Nvidia reached a market capitalization of $5 trillion in October, making it the highest-valued company in U.S. history, closely rivaling the combined market caps of Apple and Tesla [5][7]. - Nvidia's dominance in the AI sector is likened to a "currency" in the AGI world, with its GPUs being essential for AI development, establishing it as a "dollar-level" entity in the tech industry [9][10]. Group 3: Investment and Economic Influence - Nvidia has disclosed plans for investments and acquisitions totaling at least $1.5 trillion, with significant stakes in AI companies like OpenAI ($100 billion) and various other tech sectors [14]. - The company's investment strategy resembles a modern economic order, akin to the Bretton Woods system, where Nvidia aims to create a thriving AGI ecosystem centered around its technology [15][18]. Group 4: Competitive Landscape - The article compares Nvidia's relationship with OpenAI to that of the VOC and the British East India Company, highlighting the competitive dynamics and interdependencies between these entities [23][26]. - Nvidia's CUDA technology has become a dominant force in AI development, with over 5 million developers engaged in its ecosystem, reinforcing its market position [19][20]. Group 5: Data Colonialism and Sovereignty - The concept of "data colonialism" is discussed, with concerns raised about how companies like OpenAI and Nvidia may exploit data from developing countries, echoing historical colonial practices [27][28]. - The article emphasizes the importance of "sovereign AI," where countries seek to establish their own AI infrastructures to protect data sovereignty, although this often leads to dependency on major tech companies [56][58]. Group 6: Market Dynamics and Future Outlook - The article warns of a potential "bubble" in the AGI market, drawing parallels to historical market bubbles, and suggests that the current valuation of tech companies may not be sustainable [31][38]. - The future of AGI is portrayed as a landscape dominated by a few powerful entities, raising concerns about systemic risks and the implications for global economic equity [62][63].

Economic Overview - The U.S. economy is on a "K-shaped" trajectory, where the wealthy are thriving while ordinary families struggle financially [1][4] - The Federal Reserve's aggressive interest rate hikes, reaching 5.5%, have exacerbated this divide, acting as a "double-edged sword" [3][4] Consumer Behavior - Credit card delinquency rates have surged to a 15-year high, with bad debt ratios exceeding 9.5%, indicating financial strain among lower-income households [4] - Ordinary families are forced to make difficult financial choices, such as switching from premium brands to cheaper alternatives [1][4] Corporate Landscape - Large tech companies are investing heavily in AI, with Nvidia's graphics card orders extending three years into the future, showcasing a stark contrast to the struggles of small and medium enterprises [4] - High interest rates are crippling small businesses, hindering their ability to invest in equipment and hire talent [4] Federal Reserve's Dilemma - The Federal Reserve faces a challenging situation, balancing the need to lower interest rates to prevent a wave of defaults while fearing inflation resurgence [5] - Any potential interest rate cuts may provide temporary relief for consumers but could further inflate asset bubbles for the wealthy [5] Policy Implications - A more equitable tax system and improved social safety nets are suggested as necessary reforms to address the underlying issues of wealth inequality [7] - The current economic policies are leading to a scenario where recovery benefits a select few, while the majority continue to struggle [9]

Core Viewpoint - The current market situation on Wall Street is concerning despite the signing of a trade agreement between the US and China, which was expected to boost market sentiment [1][2]. Group 1: Market Performance - The Nasdaq and S&P 500 indices, which had been performing well, have recently experienced a downturn, breaking their upward trend and entering a phase of volatility [5]. - Nvidia's market value has dropped significantly, losing 10% in just two weeks, indicating a broader concern about the sustainability of tech stock valuations [4][7]. Group 2: AI Sector Concerns - The AI sector is facing scrutiny, with warnings about a potential bubble, particularly highlighted by Michael Burry's recent comments and his fund's short positions on Nvidia and Palantir [6][7]. - Despite strong earnings reports from companies like Nvidia and Palantir, their stock prices have plummeted, suggesting a loss of investor confidence in the AI narrative [7]. Group 3: Economic Indicators - The slowdown in revenue growth for major players like TSMC raises alarms about the overall health of the AI industry, as it reflects a significant drop from previous performance levels [9]. - The interconnectedness of AI companies, where investments are often recycled back into purchasing each other's products, mirrors the financing practices seen during the dot-com bubble [11][13]. Group 4: Liquidity Crisis - The current market downturn is attributed more to a liquidity crisis rather than a simple correction in tech stocks, with both gold and tech stocks experiencing declines simultaneously [20][25]. - The US Treasury's inability to spend due to a government shutdown has led to a significant accumulation of funds in its accounts, effectively draining liquidity from the market [22][26]. Group 5: Future Outlook - The market's current volatility is not solely due to the fading AI narrative but rather a tightening of liquidity that forces a reevaluation of asset values [27]. - While AI may not necessarily lead to a repeat of the internet bubble, the withdrawal of liquidity will expose vulnerabilities in overvalued assets [32].

Core Viewpoint - The article criticizes NVIDIA for product quality issues, poor sales strategies, and monopolistic practices, leading to widespread dissatisfaction among consumers and industry observers [1][4][47]. Product Quality Issues - NVIDIA's new 50 series graphics cards have been plagued by significant quality defects, including the infamous burning connector issue with the 5090 model, which was previously claimed to be resolved [10][12][14]. - Another notable defect involves the missing ROPs (Raster Operations Pipelines) in models like the 5090, which resulted in performance drops of up to 5.6% compared to the founder's edition [16][22][24]. - Users have reported driver issues that rendered graphics cards unusable, with NVIDIA acknowledging the problems but failing to provide a clear resolution timeline [25][28]. Sales Strategy Concerns - The article highlights NVIDIA's limited inventory at launch, with the 5090 having only single-digit units available, leading to scalpers driving up prices significantly [28][30]. - Reports indicate that the 5090 was listed at $3,359.99 on platforms like NewEgg, far exceeding the manufacturer's suggested retail price of $1,999 [32]. - The bundling of graphics cards with other products to inflate prices is criticized, as NVIDIA's focus has shifted towards data center revenues, which now account for nearly 80% of its income [34][35]. Monopolistic Practices - The article discusses NVIDIA's attempts to manipulate media and review platforms, citing incidents where the company pressured reviewers to alter their evaluation criteria or risk losing access to products [37][40]. - The monopolistic position of NVIDIA in the GPU market is emphasized, with over 90% of the PC market utilizing NVIDIA technology, leading to a lack of competition and consumer choice [48][50].

Group 1: Economic Overview - Developed countries are facing an "economic curse," with Japan's GDP stagnating for 30 years, Germany's industrial sector struggling, and France experiencing rising unemployment and protests. In contrast, the US GDP is projected to soar to $29.2 trillion in 2024, surpassing the combined GDP of Germany, Japan, and France [1] Group 2: Dollar Dominance - The US benefits from dollar hegemony, allowing it to receive foreign capital effortlessly. In 2024, the Federal Reserve's interest rate is expected to reach 5.5%, leading to a capital influx of $2.1 trillion from global investors. Approximately 80% of global trade is conducted in dollars, making other countries effectively subsidize the US economy [3][5] - Japan has suffered significantly, with the yen depreciating by 30% this year, resulting in a GDP shrinkage to $4.1 trillion when calculated in dollars [3] Group 3: Technological Superiority - The US technology sector, led by seven major companies, has significantly boosted the economy. The market capitalization of these companies surged by 54% last year, equivalent to recreating three Japanese stock markets. The US is also doubling its chip production capacity in three years, enhancing its control over global AI technology [5][9] - Notably, Apple's market value reached $3 trillion, surpassing Russia's entire GDP, showcasing the immense profitability of the US tech industry [5] Group 4: Consumer Spending - American consumer spending constitutes 70% of GDP, with $3.3 trillion spent in the last quarter alone. Credit card debt has exceeded $1.3 trillion, driven by a "wealth illusion" from rising housing prices and stock market gains [7] - The US government has injected $5 trillion into the economy during the pandemic, supporting 40 million low-income individuals with food vouchers, which has stimulated consumer spending [7] Group 5: Policy Strategies - The US government employs a dual strategy of monetary tightening and fiscal stimulus, with a $1.7 trillion deficit to stimulate the market. Significant subsidies have been allocated to the semiconductor industry, compelling foreign companies to share technology with US firms [9][10] - This approach has created challenges for European allies, as they must comply with US regulations to receive subsidies, impacting their own industries [10] Group 6: Long-term Concerns - Despite current economic success, the US faces a looming debt crisis with $36 trillion in national debt. Interest payments on this debt consumed 14% of federal spending last year, raising concerns about the sustainability of this economic model [12] - The reliability of the US economy is contingent on the continued acceptance of the dollar globally, with potential shifts towards alternative currencies posing risks to its economic dominance [12]

英伟达股价下跌，因为业绩预期超得不够多 去年二季度是英伟达业绩因为人工智能需求而爆发的开始，营收翻倍，净利润增长超 8 倍。即使同比基 数这么高，英伟达这次营收和利润依旧分别增长了 122% 和 168%。 只是很多投资者觉得还不够好。英伟达已经连续一年业绩远超预期，之前两次发财报后分别涨了 16.4% 和 9.3%。随着市值一起被拔高的还有投资者预期，这一次公司业绩没好到完美程度，加上管理层对关键 问题的回应略显平淡，股价盘后罕见大跌。 华为半年收入增长千亿元，增量从哪来？ 中公教育盈利，考公培训收入占比再次过半 奈雪茶饮烘焙收入下滑，上海门店利润率跌至 1.4% TikTok 算法推荐惹祸，美国法院判定平台需担责 关注《晚点财经》并设为星标，第一时间获取每日商业精华。 英伟达股价下跌，因为业绩预期超得不够多 怎么看英伟达最近一季的业绩都很好，收入、利润、毛利率、下季度指引，全都超出市场一致预期。 市场现在主要关心两件事：新品延期、客户的资本回报率。 黄仁勋确认下一代旗舰芯片 Blackwell 因生产问题而延期。好在影响良率的掩膜已更换完毕，四季度将 开始发货给客户，带来数十亿美元收入，产能恢复需要几周至 ...