AI播客：换个方式听新闻 下载mp3 这些担忧推动黄金创下前所未有的高点。卡普兰向《市场观察》（MarketWatch）指出，恐惧与贪婪是 两种"极具影响力的情绪，因此投资者在做任何财务决策时，都必须排除情绪干扰，这一点至关重要"。 周三，纽约商品交易所（Comex）12月交割的黄金期货合约收于每盎司4070.50美元，创下历史新高； 同期，标普500指数（SPX）也收于历史峰值，报6753点。 "在政策环境充满不确定性的背景下——包括美国债务负担加重、美联储独立性存疑、地缘政治及全球 贸易动荡——投资者可能在寻求对冲市场波动的工具。"美国银行高级投资策略总监罗布·哈沃斯（Rob Haworth）表示。 哈沃斯向《市场观察》透露，对标普500指数而言，短期关键影响因素是盈利增长及稳健的第三季度财 报季；而对黄金来说，若想持续冲高，需看到全球各国央行继续增持黄金。他补充道："流动性危机对 两个市场而言都将是挑战。" 不过，道琼斯市场数据显示，回溯至1975年的历史数据表明，2024年之前，黄金期货与标普500指数从 未在同一天收于历史新高。2007年和2020年，两者曾短暂同时触及或接近历史高点，但均未出现过去 ...

Group 1 - The S&P 500 index experienced a significant drop of 1.8%, marking its worst single-day performance since April, driven by fears of economic downturn due to tariff policies and disappointing job growth [1] - The Cboe Volatility Index (VIX), known as the "Wall Street Fear Index," surged to nearly 20, indicating increasing market pressure [1] - The cost of hedging against a potential 10% decline in the S&P 500 index ETF has reached its highest level since the regional banking crisis in May 2023, reflecting heightened concerns among investors [1] Group 2 - Following a 25% rise in the S&P 500 index since early April due to tariff impacts, investors are now seeking risk protection for the upcoming two months, particularly as the historically poor-performing months of August and September approach [3] - Data from Deutsche Bank indicates that Commodity Trading Advisors (CTAs) are holding stock long positions at the 94th percentile, the highest level since January 2020, suggesting confidence in the market but also potential for sharp reversals if conditions change [3] - Investor anxiety remains primarily focused on the short term, with the skewness indicator for S&P 500 options rising but still below levels seen before the April downturn [3]

Group 1 - The core issue revolves around President Trump's potential decision to dismiss Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, which has sparked significant market reactions and discussions among Republican lawmakers [1][3]. - Following Trump's comments, there was a notable market response: U.S. Treasury yields fell, gold prices surged, Bitcoin rose by $1,400, and both the U.S. dollar and stock market declined [3][5]. - Trump's remarks included a suggestion that he had considered a draft letter for Powell's dismissal, indicating serious contemplation rather than mere speculation [3][5]. Group 2 - Trump later downplayed the likelihood of Powell's dismissal, stating there were no current plans, but left the door open for future actions depending on Powell's performance [5][7]. - The legal ambiguity surrounding the President's authority to dismiss the Fed Chairman remains a critical point, as federal law states that a dismissal can only occur for "just cause," which is not clearly defined [7][8]. - Analysts warn that removing Powell could lead to market panic, undermine the independence of the Federal Reserve, and potentially trigger legal battles, with historical context showing that Powell was prepared for such a scenario six years ago [7][8].

Group 1: Soybean Oil - Spot market: Before the Tomb - Sweeping Festival, the price of first - grade soybean oil at Zhangjiagang Donghai Grain and Oil was 8,520 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan/ton from the previous trading day [2] - Market analysis: The 2024/25 Brazilian soybean crop harvest rate is faster than last year, and South America's new season may be in a bumper - harvest pattern. Currently, it's the U.S. soybean export and South American growth and harvest season. Domestically, short - term soybean oil supply and downstream demand may remain neutral, and short - term inventory may be stable [2] - Reference view: The soybean oil 2505 contract may run weakly in the short term [2] Group 2: Soybean Meal - Spot information: 43 soybean meal prices in different regions: Zhangjiagang 3,010 yuan/ton (- 10), Tianjin 3,130 yuan/ton (- 30), Rizhao 3,070 yuan/ton (- 10), Dongguan 2,970 yuan/ton (0) [3] - Market analysis: Sino - U.S. tariff policies have caused market panic. CBOT soybeans have declined due to demand concerns. In April, the number of imported soybeans is expected to increase. Terminal breeding demand is average, and downstream feed enterprises mainly replenish stocks on a rolling basis. Oil mill soybean meal inventory remains neutral [3] - Reference view: Soybean meal may fluctuate within a range in the short term [3] Group 3: Corn - Spot information: The average purchase price of new corn in key deep - processing enterprises in the three northeastern provinces and Inner Mongolia is 2,082 yuan/ton; in North China and the Huang - Huai region, it's 2,281 yuan/ton. The purchase price at Jinzhou Port and Bayuquan Port is 2,130 - 2,155 yuan/ton [4] - Market analysis: The U.S. corn planting area in 2025 is expected to reach 95.326 million acres, a 12 - year high. Domestically, farmers' grain sales are nearly 90% complete, and imported corn and substitute grains have decreased significantly. Downstream pig production capacity is recovering, but there are still potential suppressing factors [4] - Reference view: The short - term corn futures price will fluctuate within a range, and an interval operation strategy is recommended [4] Group 4: Electrolytic Copper - Spot information: The price of Shanghai 1 electrolytic copper is 79,010 - 79,290 yuan, down 905 yuan. The import copper ore index is - 26.4, down 2.26 [5] - Market analysis: Global "irrational" tariffs have caused turmoil in overseas capital markets. Domestically, policies are continuously strengthening, giving the market strong expectations. The raw material impact is still extreme, and the copper price is in a stage of resonance [5] - Reference view: Affected by the external market, Shanghai copper may open sharply lower. It is recommended to keep the strategy unchanged [5] Group 5: Lithium Carbonate - Spot information: The market price of battery - grade lithium carbonate (99.5%) is 74,100 yuan/ton, and that of industrial - grade lithium carbonate (99.2%) is 72,200 yuan/ton. The price difference between them is 1,900 yuan/ton, remaining unchanged from the previous trading day [6] - Market analysis: Lithium ore prices are unchanged, and inventory has increased. Supply is growing but at a slower pace, and the salt - lake end has started to resume production. Demand has improved but is still insufficient to drive prices up [6][7] - Reference view: The lithium carbonate 2505 contract may oscillate weakly. Short - selling on rallies is recommended [7] Group 6: Steel - Spot information: The price of Shanghai rebar is 3,260 yuan, the Tangshan start - up rate is 80.58%, the social inventory is 6.28 million tons, and the steel mill inventory is 2.2578 million tons [8] - Market analysis: The fundamentals of steel are gradually improving, with a weaker near - term and stronger long - term situation. The cost is rising, and the inventory is accumulating but at a low level. The short - term market is dominated by macro - policy expectations [8] - Reference view: The market sentiment is pessimistic, and steel prices will oscillate at a low level [8] Group 7: Coking Coal and Coke - Spot information: The price of main coking coal (washed coal, Meng 5) is 1,270 yuan/ton; the price of quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke at Rizhao Port is 1,370 yuan/ton. The port inventory of imported coking coal is 3.8623 million tons, and the port inventory of coke is 2.0013 million tons [9] - Market analysis: Supply is relatively loose, demand is still sluggish, inventory is slightly accumulating, and the average profit per ton of coke is approaching the break - even point [9] - Reference view: Due to loose supply, coking coal and coke will rebound weakly at a low level with limited space [9] Group 8: Iron Ore - Spot information: The Platts iron ore index is 102.95, the price of Qingdao PB (61.5%) powder is 786 yuan, and the price of Australian iron ore powder (62% Fe) is 787 yuan [10] - Market analysis: Supply is increasing, demand is weak both domestically and overseas, and there are concerns about the contraction of long - process steelmaking demand. However, the weakening of the U.S. dollar index provides some support [10] - Reference view: The iron ore 2505 contract will mainly oscillate weakly in the short term. Traders are advised to be cautious [10] Group 9: Crude Oil - Market analysis: After the U.S. announced "reciprocal tariffs" and China counter - attacked, global capital markets tumbled, and crude oil prices dropped more than 10% during the holiday. OPEC+ decided to increase production in May, and the U.S. PMI data in February contracted [11] - Reference view: The WTI main contract will experience a sharp decline after the holiday. Attention should be paid to the supplementary decline in the domestic market [11] Group 10: Rubber - Spot information: The price of domestic full - latex rubber is 16,600 yuan/ton, Thai RSS3 is 21,600 yuan/ton, Vietnamese 3L standard rubber is 17,750 yuan/ton, and 20 - grade rubber is 16,350 yuan/ton [12] - Market analysis: U.S. "reciprocal tariffs" have affected China's tire and automobile exports, causing rubber prices to fall. Domestically, full - latex rubber production is gradually resuming, and the global rubber supply and demand are both loose [13] - Reference view: Rubber prices will mainly oscillate weakly. Attention should be paid to the supplementary decline after the holiday [13] Group 11: PVC - Spot information: The mainstream price of East China 5 - type PVC is 4,900 yuan/ton, and that of ethylene - based PVC is 5,150 yuan/ton, both remaining unchanged [14] - Market analysis: The PVC production enterprise start - up rate has increased. Downstream demand has not improved significantly, and inventory has decreased. The current supply - demand contradiction is still prominent [14] - Reference view: In the short term, lacking fundamental positive drivers, the futures price will oscillate at a low level [14] Group 12: Soda Ash - Spot information: The national mainstream price of heavy soda ash is 1,471.56 yuan/ton, down 1.57 yuan/ton month - on - month [15] - Market analysis: The soda ash start - up rate has increased, production has risen, and factory inventory has accumulated. Social inventory has decreased slightly. Demand is average, and there is resistance to high - price goods [15] - Reference view: Before the holiday, the 05 contract fluctuated narrowly. It is expected that the futures price will mainly oscillate widely in the short term [15]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the significant market turmoil triggered by aggressive tariff policies announced by the Trump administration, leading to a sharp decline in global stock markets and heightened investor anxiety [1][9][10]. Market Impact - The S&P 500 index experienced its largest two-day drop since March 2020, with over $5 trillion in market value lost in just two days [1]. - The Nasdaq Composite index fell into bear market territory, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average entered a correction phase [1]. - On Monday, S&P 500 futures dropped by as much as 5.4%, and Nasdaq 100 futures fell by 6.2% [1]. Asian Market Reaction - Major Asian indices suffered significant losses, with the Nikkei 225 and Topix indices both down over 5% [2]. - The Taiwan Weighted Index opened down 5.4% and later expanded its losses to 9.8% [3]. - The Hang Seng Index opened down 9.28%, with the Hang Seng Tech Index falling 11.15% [4]. Commodity and Currency Movements - WTI crude oil futures fell below $60 for the first time since April 2021, while copper prices dropped over 8% [5]. - Non-US currencies weakened, with the Australian dollar declining by 1% and the Japanese yen rising due to safe-haven demand [5]. Historical Context - The market's reaction has drawn comparisons to the "Black Monday" crash of 1987, with analysts warning of potential further turmoil [6][10]. - The recent declines are noted as the fourth largest "double-day drop" since World War II, following similar events in 1987, 2008, and during the COVID-19 pandemic [7][8]. Investor Sentiment - Market commentators express deep concern over the potential for a recession, with some suggesting that the current situation could lead to severe economic downturns if tariffs are not reconsidered [11][12]. - Investors are reportedly anxious, with many seeking to reduce risk exposure amid the uncertainty surrounding tariff impacts [15][16]. Government Response - In contrast to market fears, Trump administration officials have maintained a calm demeanor, asserting that the economy will prosper despite the turmoil [18][19]. - Treasury Secretary Mnuchin emphasized that the long-term market returns remain strong, despite recent volatility [19]. Economic Outlook - Analysts are increasingly worried about the implications of rising tariffs on economic growth, with predictions of a 60% chance of a global recession [24]. - The uncertainty surrounding tariff rates is causing businesses to struggle with planning and investment decisions [24].