维持"强烈推荐"投资评级。考虑到公司后续产品储备丰富，经典游戏表现亮眼，有道等创新业务持续发 展，我们预计公司2025-2027 年归母净利润有望达到351.0/384.9/425.3 亿元。维持 "强烈推荐"投资评 级。 风险提示：新游表现不及预期、竞争格局恶化、监管风险。 三季度公司多款经典游戏表现优秀。《梦幻西游》电脑版最高同时在线玩家次数连创四次新高，达到 358 万；新游戏上线进一步丰富产品矩阵，包括《命运：群星》在海外及国内上线后登顶多地区iOS 下 载榜，《无限大》在2025东京电玩展推出线下试玩后引发热烈反响，《逆水寒》手游及《燕云十六声》 于11 月在全球上线，《遗忘之海》有望于2026 年上线贡献增量。此外，暴雪系列游戏中，《魔兽世 界》近期推出国区独家"泰坦重铸"服务器，《暗黑破坏神II》重制版和《星际争霸I》分别于8 月27 日和 10 月28 日回归中国，《暗黑破坏神IV》国区即将在12 月12 日上线。 有道持续推动AI 技术升级与落地，教育及广告领域商业化成果显著。25Q3有道实现收入16 亿元，同比 增长3.6%，环比增长主要来自智能硬件及在线营销服务收入增长；云音乐25Q3 ...

Core Insights - The company's Q3 2025 revenue increased by 8% to 28.4 billion yuan, while Non-GAAP net profit rose by 27% to 9.5 billion yuan, slightly below expectations due to unrecognized revenue from some products and higher-than-expected marketing expenses [1] - The company declared a dividend of $0.114 per share and extended its share repurchase program of up to $5 billion until January 2029, having repurchased $2 billion by the end of Q3 2025 [1] Revenue and Profit Trends - Revenue from games and value-added services grew by 12%, driven by flagship products such as "Dream of Dreams" and "Egg Party," showcasing the company's long-term game operation capabilities [1] - Marketing expenses increased by 17% to 4.46 billion yuan, primarily due to seasonal promotional activities and new version marketing for flagship products, leading to a significant increase in deferred revenue [1] Investment and New Game Releases - The company achieved investment income of 1.38 billion yuan, which helped offset the impact of increased marketing expenses on profits [1] - New games "Destiny: Stars" and "Yanyun Sixteen Sounds" are set to launch in overseas and Chinese markets, with the former nominated for the 2025 TGA Best Mobile Game [1] - The company plans to focus on global capabilities and the progress of key new games, with several titles in the pipeline for 2026 [1] Profit Forecast and Valuation - The company maintains its profit forecast, with current valuations at 16/15x for Hong Kong stocks and 15/14x for U.S. stocks for 2025/2026 Non-GAAP P/E [2] - The company retains an outperform rating and a target price of 275 HKD / 177 USD, indicating an upside potential of 29% for Hong Kong stocks and 33% for U.S. stocks [2]

Core Insights - Multiple games from NetEase have experienced service interruptions on the OPPO channel, affecting players significantly [2] - The cessation of services began last year with "Onmyoji: Yokai House" and has continued with several other titles, including major products like "Dream of the Westward Journey" and "The Last of Us" [2] - OPPO's customer service indicated that the service interruptions are due to the expiration of the partnership with NetEase, with no current plans for renewal [2] Industry Analysis - The high revenue-sharing model between game developers and channel providers in China, which can reach up to 50%, is significantly higher than the 30% seen in overseas markets, potentially contributing to the termination of partnerships [2] - NetEase's CEO expressed dissatisfaction with the high revenue-sharing rates during a financial call, highlighting that the current model is detrimental to the industry ecosystem [2]

Core Viewpoint - The ongoing conflict between game developers and distribution channels, particularly regarding the withdrawal of multiple NetEase games from the OPPO platform, highlights a significant shift in the gaming industry dynamics, driven by cost issues associated with Android distribution channels [1][2][3] Group 1: Game Withdrawals - Multiple NetEase games have been removed from the OPPO channel, including titles like "Onmyoji: Yokai House" and "Onmyoji: Card Game," with the latest being "Nirvana in Fire" and "Pro Evolution Soccer" [2] - The trend of withdrawing games from OPPO has escalated from smaller titles last year to major flagship products this year, indicating a broader industry shift [2] Group 2: Industry Dynamics - Analysts suggest that the era of distribution channels charging exorbitant fees is coming to an end, as game developers seek to optimize their operational strategies [3] - The situation reflects a growing trend in the gaming industry where developers are reassessing their partnerships with distribution platforms due to financial pressures [2][3]

Core Viewpoint - OPPO has ceased cooperation with NetEase for several games, leading to multiple game shutdowns on the OPPO platform, with no current plans for restoration [1][2][4]. Group 1: Game Shutdowns - Numerous NetEase games have stopped operating on OPPO's platform, including popular titles like "Dream of Jianghu" and "Onmyoji: Yokai House" [2][4]. - The shutdowns began in November 2022 and continued into 2025, with several major games announcing their exit from the OPPO platform [4]. Group 2: Company Responses - OPPO customer service confirmed the cessation of certain games due to the end of cooperation with NetEase, but did not provide details on potential partnerships with other game developers [1]. - As of the latest updates, neither OPPO nor NetEase has issued a unified statement regarding the operational strategy changes [6]. Group 3: Industry Analysis - The high revenue-sharing model of traditional Android channels, which can reach up to 50%, has been a limiting factor for game developers' profit margins [6]. - As NetEase and other game developers grow, they are increasingly negotiating better terms with distribution channels to reduce reliance on traditional platforms [6]. Group 4: Financial Performance - NetEase reported a net income of 27.9 billion yuan for Q2 2025, a 9.4% year-on-year increase, but below market expectations [7]. - The net income from games and related services was 22.8 billion yuan, reflecting a 13.7% year-on-year growth [7]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders decreased to 8.6 billion yuan compared to 10.3 billion yuan in the previous quarter and 6.8 billion yuan in the same quarter last year [7].

Core Insights - A significant leadership shakeup is occurring at NetEase Games, with multiple high-ranking executives departing, indicating unprecedented organizational changes within the company [1][2][4][6] Group 1: Executive Departures - Li Kaiming, head of NetEase Interactive Entertainment's 10th division, announced his departure for personal career development, marking him as the third senior executive to leave this year [1][2] - Other notable departures include Lin Yunfeng, president of the Dreamland division, and Xuanzi, producer of "World Beyond," suggesting a trend of restructuring similar to last year's disbandment of the Tianxia division [2][4] - The departures reflect a broader trend of leadership changes, particularly among executives overseeing key business areas such as competitive gaming, anime, and strategy games [2][6] Group 2: Organizational Changes - The leadership changes are centered in the Guangzhou headquarters, which has historically been the cradle of NetEase's gaming empire, indicating a potential shift in focus towards the Hangzhou region [4][7][16] - The company is reportedly consolidating its operations in Hangzhou, where the LeiHuo division has seen significant success, contributing approximately 50% to NetEase's total gaming revenue [13][15] - The restructuring aims to inject new energy into the organization by replacing long-standing executives with younger leaders who can better connect with the new generation of players [17][22] Group 3: Performance and Challenges - The Guangzhou divisions have faced significant setbacks, including the failure of the martial arts open-world game "The Legend of the Condor Heroes," which suffered a nearly 80% user attrition rate post-launch [9][10] - The 10th division also faced challenges, with the cancellation of the single-player project "Ten Thousand People Long Song: Three Kingdoms" after four years of development due to poor market feedback [11] - In contrast, the Hangzhou operations have thrived, with successful titles like "Nirvana in Fire Mobile" and "Eternal Return" establishing a strong market presence and contributing to the company's growth [12][13] Group 4: Strategic Shifts - The leadership changes reflect a strategic pivot from product-driven approaches to data-driven methodologies, emphasizing user profiling, monetization models, and predictive analytics in game development [21][22] - The company is focusing on a dual strategy of "data + rhythm" to enhance resource efficiency and mitigate the impact of individual project failures on overall business performance [22] - This shift is expected to lead to a more structured approach to game development, ensuring that new projects are backed by comprehensive market analysis and clear commercialization paths [21][22]

Core Insights - Recent personnel changes at NetEase's gaming division indicate a significant restructuring, particularly affecting the Guangzhou-based teams, which have historically been crucial to the company's success [1][4][8] Group 1: Personnel Changes - NetEase's gaming division has experienced a series of high-profile departures, including the resignation of key figures such as Lin Yunfeng and Li Kaiming, indicating a potential shift in leadership strategy [2][6][16] - Li Kaiming announced his departure to pursue entrepreneurial ventures, countering rumors of being forced out, and confirmed he had initiated his resignation process earlier [7][11] - The restructuring is seen as part of a broader strategy by CEO Ding Lei to address underperformance in the Guangzhou region, which has seen a lack of successful new titles in recent years [9][28][36] Group 2: Performance and Strategy - The Guangzhou gaming units, particularly the Dream and Tenth divisions, have faced challenges with recent projects, including the underwhelming performance of "射雕" and the cancellation of "万民长歌：三国," leading to a reassessment of their operational effectiveness [29][31][34] - The restructuring aligns with a trend of shifting focus towards younger talent and innovative projects, as evidenced by the success of titles emerging from the Hangzhou-based teams [25][37] - NetEase's strategy appears to be moving away from its historical reliance on veteran teams in Guangzhou, as the company seeks to rejuvenate its game offerings and adapt to changing market demands [36][37] Group 3: Market Position - Despite the upheaval, NetEase continues to maintain a presence in the mobile gaming market, with "梦幻西游手游" and "率土之滨" remaining top performers, showcasing the enduring appeal of its legacy titles [10][34] - The company is actively recruiting in Hangzhou, indicating a strategic shift in its operational focus from Guangzhou to its headquarters, reflecting a broader trend in the gaming industry towards centralization of talent and resources [36]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company reported stable performance with a focus on global game expansion, achieving revenue of 27.99 billion yuan in Q2 2025, representing a year-over-year increase of 9.4% and a quarter-over-quarter decrease of 3.2% [3][4] - The gross profit for Q2 was 18.05 billion yuan, with a gross margin of 64.7%, an increase of 1.8 percentage points year-over-year [3][4] - The adjusted net profit reached 9.53 billion yuan, reflecting a year-over-year growth of 32.0% and a net margin of 34.2%, up 3.5 percentage points year-over-year [3][4] Game Business Performance - The revenue from games and related services in Q2 was 22.8 billion yuan, a year-over-year increase of 13.7% [4] - Several games celebrated anniversary updates, achieving high rankings on various sales charts, including "Marvel Contest" reaching the top of the global Steam sales chart [4] - The company continues to deepen its overseas expansion with multiple new game launches and ongoing development of international versions of existing titles [4] Youdao Business Strategy - Youdao's revenue for Q2 was 1.42 billion yuan, exceeding consensus estimates, with a year-over-year growth of 7.2% and a gross margin of 43.0% [5] - The "production-model integration" strategy is driving the application of AI innovations in education, including new AI learning assistants and virtual speaking coaches [5] Cloud Music Operations - Cloud Music generated 1.97 billion yuan in revenue for Q2, with a gross margin of 36.1%, an increase of 4 percentage points year-over-year [6] - The company is focused on building a music ecosystem, enhancing user experience through innovative features [6] Financial Projections - The company expects revenues of 114.73 billion yuan, 119.65 billion yuan, and 124.39 billion yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [7] - The projected adjusted net profits for the same years are 39.41 billion yuan, 40.85 billion yuan, and 42.59 billion yuan [7] - The report maintains a "Buy" rating based on these projections [7]

Core Viewpoint - The ongoing conflict between two games under NetEase, "逆水寒手游" (Nirvana in Fire Mobile) and "燕云十六声" (Yanyun Sixteen Sounds), highlights internal competition within the company, with accusations of plagiarism and marketing strategies that may be seen as a new form of promotion [1][9][21]. Group 1: Game Development and Technology - "逆水寒手游" claims its AI-driven gameplay is developed using its proprietary Fuxi intelligent engine and has not been licensed to any non-NetEase games [1]. - "燕云十六声" acknowledges that its "戏乐模式" (Xile Mode) utilizes algorithms from NetEase's AI Lab, which has been in development since 2018 [3][7]. - The competition between the two games is characterized as a "世子之争" (prince competition), with each game belonging to different business units within NetEase, leading to a lack of shared technology and resources [9][12]. Group 2: Market Performance - "逆水寒手游" achieved over 2 billion yuan in revenue within its first month and has registered over 50 million players [14]. - "燕云十六声" generated an estimated revenue of 700-1 billion yuan in its first month and saw over 3 million downloads within four days of its PC launch [15][16]. - Both games are currently performing closely in the market, with rankings in mobile game revenue fluctuating between the two [16]. Group 3: Marketing and Competition - The public dispute over alleged plagiarism has led to significant player engagement, with "燕云十六声" receiving 110,000 comments on social media platforms [1]. - The competitive nature of the two games is expected to drive improvements in technology, service, and player experience, benefiting the gaming industry as a whole [21].

Group 1 - The Chinese gaming market achieved a sales revenue of 168 billion yuan in the first half of the year, representing a year-on-year growth of 14.08%, with a user base of 679 million, showing a steady increase of 0.72% [1] - Self-developed games in the domestic market saw nearly a 20% increase in sales revenue, while overseas revenue exceeded 9.5 billion USD, indicating a strong performance in international markets [1][2] - The gaming industry has evolved into a significant part of China's digital economy, contributing to employment, consumption, and exports, with hundreds of thousands of high-tech jobs created in game content development, operation, and distribution [1] Group 2 - The international success of self-developed games has shifted from low-cost re-skins to high-quality original content, enhancing China's influence in the global market [2] - Notable titles like "Genshin Impact" and "Honkai: Star Rail" have consistently ranked high in the App Store across multiple overseas markets, showcasing advancements in artistic style, narrative ability, and operational systems [2] - The gaming industry exemplifies the transformation of digital technology into market products, driving the maturation of new technologies such as AI, cloud computing, and virtual reality [2] Group 3 - Leading companies like miHoYo and Tencent are implementing strategies that integrate technology and culture, moving beyond reliance on blockbuster products to explore deeper and broader development paths [3] - The gaming industry represents not only a robust entertainment sector but also a convergence of cultural confidence and technological self-reliance, contributing to national soft power and economic transformation [3]