11月20日，章源钨业盘中上涨2.34%，截至13:02，报13.11元/股，成交3.77亿元，换手率2.45%，总市值 157.51亿元。 资金流向方面，主力资金净流入150.19万元，特大单买入914.26万元，占比2.42%，卖出1009.92万元， 占比2.68%；大单买入8711.91万元，占比23.09%，卖出8466.07万元，占比22.43%。 章源钨业所属申万行业为：有色金属-小金属-钨。所属概念板块包括：基金重仓、航天军工、专精特 新、融资融券、中盘等。 截至9月30日，章源钨业股东户数9.81万，较上期增加80.69%；人均流通股12185股，较上期减少 44.66%。2025年1月-9月，章源钨业实现营业收入38.78亿元，同比增长37.38%；归母净利润1.90亿元， 同比增长29.71%。 分红方面，章源钨业A股上市后累计派现8.62亿元。近三年，累计派现2.69亿元。 机构持仓方面，截止2025年9月30日，章源钨业十大流通股东中，香港中央结算有限公司位居第二大流 通股东，持股1300.64万股，相比上期增加422.07万股。银华心佳两年持有期混合（010730）位居第四大 流通 ...

Core Viewpoint - Zhangyuan Tungsten Industry has shown significant stock price appreciation and strong financial performance in 2023, indicating potential growth in the tungsten industry. Financial Performance - As of September 30, 2025, Zhangyuan Tungsten achieved a revenue of 3.878 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 37.38% [2] - The net profit attributable to shareholders for the same period was 190 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 29.71% [2] - The company has distributed a total of 862 million yuan in dividends since its A-share listing, with 269 million yuan distributed over the last three years [3] Stock Market Activity - On November 7, 2023, the stock price increased by 2.04%, reaching 13.48 yuan per share, with a trading volume of 341 million yuan and a turnover rate of 2.16% [1] - The stock has appreciated by 110.69% year-to-date, with a 4.58% increase over the last five trading days, 8.10% over the last 20 days, and 45.57% over the last 60 days [1] - The company has appeared on the "Dragon and Tiger List" twice this year, with the most recent instance on August 26, 2023, where it recorded a net buy of -121 million yuan [1] Shareholder Structure - As of September 30, 2025, the number of shareholders increased to 98,100, up by 80.69% from the previous period [2] - The average number of circulating shares per shareholder decreased by 44.66% to 12,185 shares [2] - Major shareholders include Hong Kong Central Clearing Limited, which holds 13.0064 million shares, and several ETFs, with varying changes in their holdings [3]

Core Viewpoint - Zhangyuan Tungsten's stock price has shown significant growth this year, with a year-to-date increase of 104.44%, indicating strong market performance and investor interest [1][2]. Financial Performance - For the period from January to September 2025, Zhangyuan Tungsten achieved a revenue of 3.878 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 37.38% [2]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders for the same period was 190 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 29.71% [2]. Stock Market Activity - As of October 31, Zhangyuan Tungsten's stock price was 13.08 yuan per share, with a trading volume of 416 million yuan and a turnover rate of 2.63% [1]. - The company has appeared on the "Dragon and Tiger List" twice this year, with the most recent instance on August 26, where it recorded a net buy of -121 million yuan [1]. Shareholder Information - As of September 30, the number of shareholders for Zhangyuan Tungsten was 98,100, an increase of 80.69% compared to the previous period [2]. - The average number of circulating shares per shareholder decreased by 44.66% to 12,185 shares [2]. Dividend Distribution - Since its A-share listing, Zhangyuan Tungsten has distributed a total of 862 million yuan in dividends, with 269 million yuan distributed over the past three years [3]. Institutional Holdings - As of September 30, the second-largest circulating shareholder is Hong Kong Central Clearing Limited, holding 13.0064 million shares, an increase of 4.2207 million shares from the previous period [3]. - The top ten circulating shareholders include various ETFs, with some showing changes in their holdings [3].

Core Insights - The tungsten concentrate industry is crucial for strategic sectors like aerospace and defense, with a focus on high-density, high-melting-point, and high-hardness properties [1][5][11] - China, as the largest tungsten producer, faces rapid resource consumption and has implemented policies for total control and export regulation to transition from resource output to high value-added production [1][5][6] - The industry is characterized by a concentration of resources, with significant production capacity in provinces like Jiangxi and Henan, and a market dominated by state-owned enterprises [1][12][16] Industry Overview - Tungsten concentrate is extracted from tungsten ore through various processes, requiring a minimum tungsten trioxide (WO₃) content of 65% [2][3] - The global tungsten resource distribution is highly concentrated, with China holding 52% of the total reserves, while the domestic reserve-to-production ratio is only 36 years [10][11] Policy Analysis - China has established a policy framework focusing on resource protection and sustainable utilization, including total mining volume management and export controls [5][6][14] - Recent policies have refined the management of mining quotas and introduced stricter regulations on exports of tungsten-related products [6][14] Industry Chain - The tungsten concentrate industry chain includes exploration, mining, and processing, with a high concentration of mining enterprises and increasing prices due to supply constraints [8][12] - The downstream applications are diverse, with significant growth in demand for tungsten wire in the photovoltaic sector, while traditional sectors face cost pressures [8][12] Current Industry Status - The tungsten industry in China is experiencing a transformation, with a focus on high-end applications and a shift towards sustainable practices [13][15] - In 2024, the total tungsten concentrate production is projected to be 12.7 million tons, reflecting the impact of total control policies [14][15] Competitive Landscape - The industry is characterized by a "resource core, state-owned leadership, and collaborative ecosystem" model, with major players like Jiangxi Tungsten Industry Group and Xiamen Tungsten leading the market [16][17] - The market concentration is high, with the top five companies controlling 61% of the production capacity [16] Future Trends - The tungsten concentrate industry is expected to evolve towards resource consolidation, technological advancement, and global expansion [17][19] - Key trends include a shift from scale advantages to ecological dominance, with a focus on high-end applications and green transformation [17][18][19]

Summary of Conference Call on Tungsten Market Industry Overview - The conference call focuses on the tungsten industry, specifically the dynamics of tungsten prices and the factors influencing demand and supply in China for 2024 and beyond [1][3][5]. Key Points and Arguments - **Tungsten Demand Growth**: In 2024, China's total tungsten demand is expected to grow by 2% year-on-year to 177,600 metric tons, with military demand accounting for over 10% [1][3]. - **Price Increase Drivers**: Recent increases in tungsten prices are attributed to a reduction in domestic mining quotas, potential supply disruptions due to environmental inspections, and heightened military demand due to geopolitical tensions [1][4]. - **Future Price Outlook**: Tungsten prices are anticipated to continue rising, driven by potential catalysts such as improved US-China relations leading to export recovery and slower-than-expected production at the Bakuta tungsten mine [1][5]. - **Impact on Company Profits**: The rise in tungsten prices is not expected to negatively impact the profits of listed companies. Faster price transmission within the industry and increased machine tool production are expected to enhance profit realization [1][7][8]. - **Investment Opportunities**: Companies with a higher proportion of profits derived from tungsten mining, such as Zhangyuan Tungsten and Changgao Electric, are showing strong resilience in the current price environment [1][9]. - **Investment Strategy**: Middle tungsten high-tech is prioritized as the top investment target, along with companies benefiting from rare earth themes and robotics component substitution [2][9]. Additional Important Insights - **Supply-Side Challenges**: Domestic tungsten production is declining, with a forecast of 72,100 metric tons in 2024, a decrease of 0.64% year-on-year. Import growth is also slowing, with average monthly imports around 500 tons in early 2025 [3][4]. - **Market Sentiment**: The overall sentiment in the tungsten market is positive, with expectations of demand recovery and price increases, despite potential short-term volatility [6][8]. - **Long-Term Investment Value**: The long-term investment value of the entire industry chain remains strong, with a focus on companies' sensitivity to market changes to capture growth opportunities [6][9].

Summary of Tungsten Industry Conference Call Industry Overview - The tungsten market is expected to remain tight in 2025, with no significant increase in supply and stable demand, leading to an optimistic outlook. The average price for the year may reach around 160,000 yuan, with a fluctuation range of 20%-30% [1][7] - In Q1 2025, tungsten exports significantly decreased due to policy adjustments, with a cumulative decline of 27% by March. However, imports increased by 20% year-on-year, with tungsten concentrate imports growing by over 40% [1][3] Key Points on Demand and Supply - The demand for tungsten is expected to increase significantly due to nuclear fusion test reactors, with an estimated demand of over 3,000 tons of metal, accounting for about 5% of total consumption. The acceleration of domestic and international experimental reactor construction and commercialization is driving this demand [1][6] - The first batch of tungsten quotas for 2025 has been reduced by 4,000 tons, marking the largest reduction in five years. The strengthening of the Mineral Resources Law may lead to more policies managing strategic metals, presenting development opportunities for tungsten [1][9] - The Bakuta tungsten mine in Kazakhstan is expected to release 2,500-3,000 tons of metal in 2025, but the growth in domestic demand in China may offset this increase, resulting in limited impact on global supply and demand [1][10] Production and Inventory Insights - In Q1 2025, the tungsten industry maintained stable operations, with tungsten concentrate production increasing by less than 1% year-on-year. The hard alloy segment saw a 9.9% increase, indicating a shift in the industry chain focus [2][4] - Current tungsten industry inventory levels are low, with deep processing product increases outpacing raw material growth. Prices are higher than the same period last year, and it is expected that inventory will not see significant increases this year [4][17] Price Trends and Influencing Factors - Tungsten prices increased by 15% year-on-year in Q1, primarily due to the ongoing tight supply-demand situation established in 2023 and 2024. Despite insufficient order saturation, production is still growing, albeit at a slow pace [5][27] - The price increase in 2024 was influenced by geopolitical factors such as conflicts in the Middle East and Ukraine, while the price increase in 2025 is expected to be driven by domestic demand and regulatory policies [8][9] Export and Import Dynamics - The export of tungsten is approximately 30,000 tons annually, with domestic consumption around 64,000 tons. Exports account for about one-third of total demand, while domestic consumption makes up two-thirds [23] - Hard alloy products, including tools, are not subject to export restrictions, while raw materials require licensing. In 2024, hard alloys accounted for 32% of total exports, with raw materials exceeding 50% [16][25] Future Outlook - The global tungsten production in 2025 is expected to remain flat compared to last year, with limited growth in domestic production offsetting the increase from the Bakuta mine. Demand growth in tungsten materials, chemicals, alloys, and hard alloys is anticipated [32] - There is uncertainty regarding strategic reserve actions for tungsten in 2025, with potential interventions in the market depending on price levels and military supply needs [30][31]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the tungsten industry Core Insights - Tungsten is an irreplaceable material in various sectors such as industrial, military, and aerospace due to its unique physical and chemical properties [1][3] - The demand for tungsten materials and products is continuously growing, particularly in hard alloys, cutting tools, and photovoltaic tungsten wire applications [1] - China holds a significant position in the global tungsten market, with a resource reserve of 2.3 million tons, accounting for 52.27% of the world's total [11] - The government has implemented policies to support the development and utilization of tungsten resources, ensuring favorable conditions for industry growth [6][7] Industry Overview - Tungsten is classified as a strategic mineral in China, with its mining regulated to prevent over-exploitation [3][11] - The main applications of tungsten include mechanical processing, aerospace, defense, electronics, and transportation [3] - The report highlights the importance of tungsten in high-temperature and high-density applications, particularly in hard alloys and tungsten-based products [4] Market Demand and Supply - The production of tungsten concentrate in China is projected to reach 133,100 tons in 2025, reflecting a growth trend [15] - The APT (Ammonium Paratungstate) production is expected to increase to 132,000 tons in 2025, indicating a robust demand for tungsten compounds [16] - The tungsten material production is forecasted to grow significantly, reaching 20,600 tons in 2025, driven by advancements in technology and industrial applications [18] Key Enterprises - Xiamen Tungsten Co., Ltd. is a leading player in the tungsten industry, with a comprehensive production chain and a market share exceeding 70% in tungsten wire [26] - Zhongtung High-tech Materials Co., Ltd. specializes in hard alloys and has a significant market presence in cutting tools [32] - Luoyang Molybdenum Co., Ltd. is a major global producer of tungsten and other metals, with a revenue of 213.03 billion yuan in 2024 [36] Policy Environment - The Chinese government has prioritized tungsten as a strategic resource in its "14th Five-Year Plan," promoting industry consolidation and technological innovation [49] - Environmental regulations are expected to tighten, pushing the tungsten industry towards sustainable practices and resource recycling [51] - The report emphasizes the need for companies to adopt low-carbon technologies and improve resource utilization efficiency [51] Future Outlook - The demand for tungsten products is anticipated to grow due to the rapid development of high-tech industries such as new energy vehicles and aerospace [53] - The report suggests that traditional applications in mechanical manufacturing will remain stable, with hard alloys continuing to play a crucial role in various sectors [53]