1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core View of the Report - Short - term copper prices are likely to remain volatile at current high levels. The supply - side contraction in mineral copper output is offset by the increase in recycled copper. On the demand side, domestic infrastructure provides support while overseas demand is weak. The continuous destocking of LME at the macro level supports prices. It is expected that copper prices will remain in a high - level shock range of 84,500 - 86,500 yuan/ton in the next one to two weeks [6][36] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Market Summary 3.1.1 Copper Futures Market Data Change Analysis - The price of SHFE's main copper contract closed at 85,530 yuan/ton on October 20, showing an upward trend. The LME copper price dropped to $10,611/ton on October 17. The LME (0 - 3) contango widened from -$11.16/ton to -$16.83/ton, indicating increased overseas spot supply pressure [1] - From October 14 to 20, LME copper inventory decreased by 3,090 tons to 41,319 tons, a decrease of 7.0%, with the overseas destocking speed accelerating. SHFE inventory slightly decreased by 50 tons to 137,175 tons, remaining stable overall [2] 3.1.2 Analysis of Industrial Chain Supply - Demand and Inventory Changes - **Supply Side**: Overseas mine disruptions continued. MMG's Las Bambas mine in Peru lost about 90,000 tons of copper resources due to illegal mining. Zijin Mining's third - quarter mineral copper output decreased by 6% quarter - on - quarter, tightening short - term supply. Although the import of recycled copper raw materials continued to grow, the import of anode copper decreased by 32.84% year - on - year, and there were still structural contradictions in refined copper supply [3] - **Demand Side**: Domestic demand was differentiated. The import of copper foil in the power sector increased by 7.28% year - on - year, and the import of copper alloys increased by 12.37% month - on - month. However, the export of copper enameled wire to the US and Indonesia declined year - on - year, showing weak demand in some overseas markets. The spot market was suppressed by high copper prices, and the concentrated arrival of imported copper further restricted the premium space [4] - **Inventory Side**: Global visible inventory continued the destocking trend. LME inventory dropped to 41,319 tons, a three - month low. Domestic SHFE inventory slightly decreased but remained at a high level of 137,000 tons. The increase in the arrival of imported copper may put pressure on subsequent inventory. The increase in the import of recycled copper raw materials may ease the supply gap of refined copper to some extent [5] 3.1.3 Market Summary - Short - term copper prices are likely to remain volatile at current high levels. The supply - side contraction in mineral copper output is offset by the increase in recycled copper. On the demand side, domestic infrastructure provides support while overseas demand is weak. The continuous destocking of LME at the macro level supports prices [6] 3.2 Industrial Chain Price Monitoring - On October 20, the price of SMM's 1 copper was 85,990 yuan/ton, with a change rate of 1.24% compared to October 14. The price of SHFE was 85,530 yuan/ton, with a change rate of 1.05%. The LME price on October 17 was $10,611/ton [8] - The premium of premium copper remained stable at 95 yuan/ton. The premium of flat - water copper increased by 16.67% to 35 yuan/ton, and the premium of wet - process copper increased by 12.50% to - 35 yuan/ton. The LME (0 - 3) contango widened [8] - From October 14 to 20, LME inventory decreased by 1,530 tons to 41,319 tons, a decrease of 3.57%. SHFE inventory decreased by 50 tons to 137,175 tons, a decrease of 0.04%. COMEX inventory data on October 17 was 345,581 short tons [8] 3.3 Industrial Chain Data Charts - The report includes charts such as China PMI, US PMI, US employment situation, the correlation between US interest rates and LME copper prices, the correlation between the US dollar index and LME copper prices, TC processing fees, CFTC copper positions, LME copper net long positions, SHFE copper warehouse receipts, LME copper inventory changes, COMEX copper inventory changes, and SMM social inventory [9][11][14] 3.4 Appendix: Big Model Inference Process - The SHFE main contract price increased slightly, while the LME price decreased slightly. The basis weakened, indicating increased spot pressure. LME inventory decreased, while SHFE inventory decreased slightly and COMEX inventory increased slightly [34][35] - On the supply side, the decrease in Zijin Mining's third - quarter output and the loss of copper in MMG's Peruvian mine may affect supply. Although anode copper imports decreased, recycled copper imports increased, showing diversified supply [35] - On the demand side, copper foil and copper alloy imports increased year - on - year but decreased month - on - month. Copper enameled wire exports to the US and Indonesia were weak. The domestic spot market was suppressed by high prices [35] - Overall inventory pressure was not large, but attention should be paid to subsequent imports. Copper prices are expected to remain in a high - level shock range of 84,500 - 86,500 yuan/ton in the next one to two weeks [35][36]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Views - **Copper**: On Friday night, Shanghai copper opened high and went higher. Today, copper prices maintained a strong shock, with a slight decline in open interest. After the Fed's September interest rate cut last week, short - term long - position closing was over. High copper prices previously led to strong downstream wait - and - see sentiment. The decline in copper prices and pre - holiday stocking demand boosted industrial restocking willingness, supporting copper prices. Technically, pay attention to the long - short game at the 80,000 mark [4]. - **Aluminum**: Today, aluminum prices fluctuated, with open interest continuously declining. After the Fed's September interest rate cut last week, short - term long - position closing was over. In September, aluminum prices generally remained high, and downstream restocking willingness was weak. As futures prices declined, the accumulation of electrolytic aluminum social inventory slowed down. Technically, Shanghai aluminum pulled back after hitting a high in March, facing significant technical pressure. Pay attention to the support of the 60 - day moving average [5]. - **Nickel**: Today, Shanghai nickel rose and then fell, with open interest continuously rising. In the morning, the main futures price reached the 122,000 mark. After the Fed's September interest rate cut last week, short - term long - position closing was over. On the industrial side, disruptions at the Indonesian mine end were positive for nickel prices, while the continuous increase in domestic nickel ore port inventory and SHFE nickel inventory was negative for nickel prices. Technically, nickel prices were still in the shock range. Pay attention to the 120,000 - 123,000 range [6]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Industry Dynamics Copper - In August 2025, China's copper enameled wire exports were 12,806 tons, a year - on - year increase of 25.82% and a month - on - month increase of 2.09%. From January to August, China's copper enameled wire exports totaled 94,935.7 tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 25.41% [8]. - In August 2025, China's copper clad laminate (HS code: 74102110) imports were 3,417.14 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 18.12% and a month - on - month increase of 5.68%. From January to August, the cumulative imports were 26,439.07 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 2.23%. In August, exports were 8,377.20 tons, a year - on - year increase of 4.22% and a month - on - month increase of 15.87%. From January to August, the cumulative exports were 59,867.55 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 8.85% [8]. Aluminum - In August 2025, the imports of unwrought aluminum alloy were 71,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 16.7% and a month - on - month increase of 2.6%. From January to August, the cumulative imports were 682,500 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 14.2%. In August, the exports were 29,100 tons, a year - on - year increase of 28.3% and a month - on - month increase of 16.7%. From January to August, the cumulative exports were 174,300 tons, a year - on - year increase of 10.7% [9]. - In August 2025, the exports of domestic aluminum profiles were 84,300 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.17% and a year - on - year decrease of 14.94% [9]. Nickel - On September 22, the price of SMM1 electrolytic nickel was 121,300 - 124,100 yuan/ton, with an average price of 122,700 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The mainstream spot premium quotation range of Jinchuan 1 electrolytic nickel was 2,300 - 2,400 yuan/ton, with an average premium of 2,350 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day. The spot premium and discount quotation range of domestic mainstream brand electrowon nickel was - 100 - 200 yuan/ton [10]. 2. Relevant Charts Copper - Charts include copper basis, electrolytic copper domestic visible inventory (social inventory + bonded area inventory), LME copper cancelled warrant ratio, overseas copper exchange inventory, and SHFE warrant inventory [11][13][14] Aluminum - Charts include aluminum basis, aluminum monthly spread, electrolytic aluminum domestic social inventory, electrolytic aluminum overseas exchange inventory (LME + COMEX), alumina inventory, and aluminum rod inventory [22][24][26] Nickel - Charts include nickel basis, LME nickel inventory and cancelled warrant ratio, LME nickel trend, SHFE nickel monthly spread, SHFE inventory, and nickel ore port inventory [34][37][38]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core View of the Report - Copper prices are oscillating weakly, with the main contract closing at 78,640. The market is waiting for Powell's speech at the global central bank annual meeting on Friday night, the US dollar index is oscillating, and market sentiment is cautious. Spot prices dropped 330 to 78,770, and the spot premium fell 5 to 190. The spot import window remains open, with a profit of 350 yuan/ton due to the increase in the Shanghai-London ratio to 8.12 and the expansion of the LME 0 - 3 contango structure to $96.85/ton. The demand for Yangshan copper has improved, and both the warehouse receipt and bill of lading premiums have risen. Short - term demand is in the transition between the off - season and peak season, and with low inventories both at home and abroad, the fundamentals still support copper prices. The short - term support level is 78,000, but market caution persists before important events, and there is a lack of obvious positive factors, so copper prices are expected to continue to oscillate within a narrow range [10] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Copper prices are oscillating weakly, and the main contract closed at 78,640. The market is waiting for Powell's speech at the global central bank annual meeting, the US dollar index is oscillating, and market sentiment is cautious. Spot prices dropped 330, and the spot premium fell 5. The spot import window is open with a profit of 350 yuan/ton. The demand for Yangshan copper has improved, and subsequent imports of copper are expected to increase. Short - term demand is in the transition period, and fundamentals support copper prices. The short - term support level is 78,000, and copper prices are expected to oscillate narrowly [10] 3.2 Industry News - In July 2025, China's copper strip exports were 10,531.17 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.84% and a year - on - year increase of 0.17%. From January to July, the cumulative export of copper strips was 71,070 tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 1.12% [11] - In July 2025, China's copper enameled wire exports continued to grow, covering 142 countries and regions, with a total export volume up 25.45% year - on - year. Exports to India and Turkey increased by 450% and 290% year - on - year respectively. Exports to the US decreased both year - on - year and month - on - month, and are expected to decline significantly in the future due to US tariffs on copper semi - finished products [11] - In July 2025, China imported 84,200 tons of anode copper, a month - on - month increase of 22.86% and a year - on - year increase of 19.08%. From January to July, the cumulative import of anode copper was 466,900 tons, a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 12.72% [11]

Report Information - Report Name: Copper Futures Daily Report [2] - Date: July 22, 2025 [3] - Researcher: Zhang Ping, Yu Feifei, Peng Jinglin [4] Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Core View - The macro - level is the main reason for the recent rise in copper prices. The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology is about to introduce a plan to stabilize growth for industries such as non - ferrous metals, which has raised market expectations for a new round of supply - side reform. With the short - term hype points of copper supply - side reform and a relatively strong fundamental situation, copper prices are expected to rise further [12] Summary by Directory 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Shanghai copper prices rose, with total positions increasing by 14,000 lots and trading volume significantly expanding. The market maintained a near - month contango structure and a far - month ack structure, and the spot premium rose to 220 due to tight market supply. Domestic social inventories decreased by 24,700 tons to 118,600 tons over the weekend, and low inventories began to affect the spot premium. The LME market had a slight inventory reduction of 100 tons, and the expectation of inventory accumulation continued to suppress the 0 - 3 contango structure. The overseas market was affected by the upcoming US tariff on copper, showing a pattern of strong domestic and weak overseas fundamentals [12] 2. Industry News - In June 2025, China's copper enameled wire exports were 12,222.29 tons, a year - on - year increase of 18.35% and a month - on - month increase of 0.93%. From January to June, the total exports were 69,586.5 tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 25.32% [13] - In June 2025, China imported 34,700 tons of scrap copper ingots (red/purple copper ingots), a month - on - month decrease of 5% and a year - on - year increase of 71%. From January to June, the cumulative imports were 226,700 tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 111% [13] - In June 2025, China imported 68,500 tons of anode copper, a month - on - month decrease of 1.26% and a year - on - year increase of 2.38%. From January to June, the cumulative imports were 382,700 tons, a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 17.56% [13]