Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints of the Report - The US has submitted a 15 - point cease - fire plan to Iran, focusing on issues such as Iran's nuclear program, missile capabilities, and opening the Strait of Hormuz, with the condition of lifting sanctions. President Trump has postponed the strike on Iranian energy facilities until April 6, and the US envoy may have arrived in Islamabad for a potential US - Iran talk [3]. - Using economic leverage to end the conflict is logical for the US as high oil prices affect US inflation and financial markets. However, economic leverage may not work as Iran's oil export revenue has increased in March [3]. - The US's preference is to use economic leverage and promote talks, but there are still doubts about forcibly seizing islands and escorting. Whether the Islamabad talks can be held next week may determine if the conflict escalates [3]. - This week (the week of March 28), Brent and WTI crude oil futures prices decreased by 0.87% and 3.22% respectively on average week - on - week. LME copper spot price decreased by 2.80% on average week - on - week, and the copper - gold ratio increased by 4.27%. Aluminum spot price decreased by 2.28% on average week - on - week [3]. - This week, the average wholesale price of pork decreased by 1.77% week - on - week and 24.08% year - on - year; the average wholesale price of 28 key monitored vegetables decreased by 0.86% week - on - week and increased by 0.29% year - on - year. On the week of March 20, the edible agricultural product price index decreased by 0.30% week - on - week and increased by 1.91% year - on - year [3]. - The domestic cement price index increased by 0.27% week - on - week; the operating rate of coking enterprises with a capacity of over 2 million tons increased by 1.01% week - on - week; the rebar inventory index decreased by 1.60% week - on - week; the rebar price index increased by 0.16% week - on - week; the blast furnace operating rate of 247 domestic steel mills increased by 1.57% week - on - week. On the week of March 20, the production material price index decreased by 0.10% week - on - week and increased by 5.00% year - on - year [3]. - From March 1 - 25 this year, the average daily trading area of commercial housing in 30 large and medium - sized cities tracked by Wind was about 229,000 square meters per day, while in March 2025, it was about 288,000 square meters per day [3]. Summary by Directory High - frequency Data Panoramic Scan - The report provides detailed week - on - week and year - on - year data of various high - frequency indicators, including food, other consumer goods, bulk commodities, energy, non - ferrous metals, ferrous metals, real estate, shipping, etc. For example, the average wholesale price of pork decreased by 1.77% week - on - week, and the RJ/CRB commodity price index decreased by 1.02% week - on - week [19]. High - frequency Data and Important Macro - indicator Trend Comparison - Multiple charts show the relationship between high - frequency data and important macro - indicators, such as the relationship between the RJ/CRB price index year - on - year and export amount year - on - year, and the relationship between the production material price index year - on - year and PPI industrial year - on - year [24]. Important High - frequency Indicators in the US, Europe, and Japan - Charts show indicators such as the US weekly economic indicators and actual economic growth rate, the US initial jobless claims and unemployment rate, and the implied interest - rate hike or cut prospects of the US Federal Reserve, the Bank of Japan, and the European Central Bank [91]. Seasonal Trends of High - frequency Data - The seasonal trends of high - frequency data are presented, including the seasonal trends of indicators such as the daily average output of crude steel, production material price index, and 30 - city commercial housing trading area [105]. High - frequency Traffic Data in Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen - The year - on - year changes in subway passenger volume in Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen are shown [150].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is that LME aluminum futures prices experienced a slight increase, opening at $3116 per ton and currently at $3113.5 per ton, reflecting a rise of 0.48% [1] - On January 20, LME aluminum futures had a closing price of $3118.5, down by 1.48% from the previous day, with a trading range between a high of $3164.5 and a low of $3096.0 [2] - The total registered aluminum warehouse receipts at LME were reported at 452,250 tons, with a decrease of 2,000 tons in canceled receipts [2] Group 2 - As of January 20, the Shanghai Futures Exchange reported aluminum warehouse receipts at 139,951 tons, which is a decrease of 1,524 tons compared to the previous trading day [2] - The current import loss for electrolytic aluminum is -2,516.03 yuan per ton, slightly worsening from -2,457.14 yuan per ton in the previous trading day [2] - The total aluminum inventory at LME stands at 483,000 tons, also reflecting a decrease of 2,000 tons [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Aluminum: Cautiously bullish [9] - Alumina: Neutral [9] - Aluminum alloy: Cautiously bullish [9] 2. Core View of the Report - The domestic overall supply - demand fundamentals of electrolytic aluminum have not changed significantly. Overseas production cuts and power costs have an impact, and consumption is expected to enter a peak season. With positive macro - factors, the decline of aluminum prices may be limited, and if inventory reduction is smooth, the upside potential of aluminum prices may be opened [6]. - For alumina, the supply - demand surplus pattern remains unchanged, and the social inventory is increasing. The current fundamentals lack positive factors, but there may be disturbances from overseas mines [8]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Aluminum Spot - East China A00 aluminum price is 21,630 yuan/ton, a change of - 280 yuan/ton from the previous trading day; the spot premium is 0 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day. Central China A00 aluminum price is 21,490 yuan/ton, and the spot premium has changed by 10 yuan/ton to - 140 yuan/ton compared to the previous day. Foshan A00 aluminum price is 21,480 yuan/ton, a change of - 280 yuan/ton from the previous day, and the spot premium has changed by - 5 yuan/ton to - 150 yuan/ton [1]. 3.2 Aluminum Futures - On November 17, 2025, the main contract of Shanghai aluminum opened at 21,835 yuan/ton, closed at 21,725 yuan/ton, a change of - 250 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, with the highest price reaching 21,835 yuan/ton and the lowest price at 21,650 yuan/ton. The trading volume for the day was 276,419 lots, and the holding volume was 390,859 lots [2]. 3.3 Inventory - As of November 17, 2025, the domestic social inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots is 646,000 tons, a change of 25,000 tons from the previous period; the warrant inventory is 69,484 tons, a change of 4,742 tons from the previous trading day; LME aluminum inventory is 550,200 tons, a change of - 2,175 tons from the previous trading day. The aluminum alloy social inventory is 72,100 tons, and the in - factory inventory is 59,000 tons [2][4]. 3.4 Alumina Spot Price - On November 17, 2025, the SMM alumina price in Shanxi is 2,840 yuan/ton, Shandong is 2,780 yuan/ton, Henan is 2,865 yuan/ton, Guangxi is 2,915 yuan/ton, Guizhou is 2,940 yuan/ton, and the FOB price of Australian alumina is 320 US dollars/ton [2]. 3.5 Alumina Futures - On November 17, 2025, the main contract of alumina opened at 2,816 yuan/ton, closed at 2,817 yuan/ton, a change of - 20 yuan/ton (- 0.70%) from the previous trading day's closing price, with the highest price reaching 2,840 yuan/ton and the lowest price at 2,774 yuan/ton. The trading volume for the day was 505,612 lots, and the holding volume was 390,494 lots [2]. 3.6 Aluminum Alloy Price - On November 17, 2025, the procurement price of Baotai civil raw aluminum is 16,800 yuan/ton, and the procurement price of mechanical raw aluminum is 17,000 yuan/ton, both with a price change of - 100 yuan/ton compared to the previous day. The Baotai quotation of ADC12 is 20,900 yuan/ton, a price change of - 100 yuan/ton compared to the previous day [3]. 3.7 Aluminum Alloy Cost and Profit - The theoretical total cost of aluminum alloy is 21,469 yuan/ton, and the theoretical profit is - 269 yuan/ton [5]. 3.8 Market Analysis - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: The domestic supply - demand fundamentals are stable. Overseas production cuts and power cost pressures exist. Consumption is growing well, and the peak season is expected from November to December. With positive macro - factors, the decline of aluminum prices may be limited, and the upside potential may be opened if inventory reduction is smooth [6]. - **Alumina**: The supply - demand surplus pattern remains. Although there are some production cuts, they are not large - scale. The social inventory is increasing, and there may be disturbances from overseas mines [8]. 3.9 Strategy - **Unilateral**: Bullish on aluminum, neutral on alumina, and bullish on aluminum alloy [9]. - **Arbitrage**: Long - short spread trading in Shanghai aluminum [9]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints - The alumina market is in a stage of sufficient supply and warm expectations. The electrolytic aluminum market is in a situation of increasing supply and demand and gradually reducing inventory. For both, it is recommended to conduct light - position oscillating trading and control the rhythm and trading risks [2] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract of Shanghai Aluminum is 20,435 yuan/ton, down 90 yuan; the closing price of the main contract of alumina futures is 2,890 yuan/ton, down 61 yuan. The LME aluminum three - month quotation is 2,507 US dollars/ton, down 26 US dollars. The LME aluminum inventory is 458,900 tons, down 3,550 tons [2] - The net position of the top 20 in Shanghai Aluminum is 43,566 hands, up 11,687 hands; the Shanghai - London ratio is 8.15, up 0.05 [2] - The Shanghai Aluminum warehouse receipt is 139,290 tons, down 4,222 tons; the Shanghai Aluminum inventory is 236,557 tons, up 3,317 tons [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The price of Shanghai Non - ferrous A00 aluminum is 20,560 yuan/ton, unchanged; the spot price of alumina in Shanghai Non - ferrous is 3,051 yuan/ton, down 24 yuan [2] - The Shanghai Wumao aluminum premium/discount is 0 yuan/ton, unchanged; the Yangtze River Non - ferrous market AOO aluminum price is 20,520 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] - The LME aluminum premium/discount is 20,520 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the basis of electrolytic aluminum is - 125 yuan/ton, down 90 yuan; the basis of alumina is - 161 yuan/ton, down 37 yuan [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The alumina production is 750.75 tons, down 4.92 tons; the demand for alumina (electrolytic aluminum part) is 647.02 tons, down 64.53 tons; the supply - demand balance of alumina is 20.92 tons, down 14.76 tons [2] - The export volume of alumina is 21.00 tons, up 1.00 tons; the import volume of alumina is 4.17 tons, up 0.58 tons [2] - The WBMS aluminum supply - demand balance is 29.51 tons, up 33.55 tons; the electrolytic aluminum social inventory is 76.60 tons, down 0.80 tons [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - The import volume of primary aluminum is 200,200.39 tons, up 38,792.39 tons; the export volume of primary aluminum is 3,426.54 tons, down 4,973.02 tons [2] - The total production capacity of electrolytic aluminum is 4,517.20 tons, unchanged; the operating rate of electrolytic aluminum is 97.37%, up 0.29% [2] - The output of aluminum products is 610.66 tons, up 17.91 tons; the export volume of unforged aluminum and aluminum products is 37.00 tons, down 12.00 tons [2] 3.5 Downstream and Application - The output of aluminum alloy is 155.20 tons, up 10.20 tons; the export volume of aluminum alloy is 1.75 tons, down 0.06 tons [2] - The automobile production is 349.86 vehicles, up 5.10 vehicles; the National Real Estate Prosperity Index is 93.80, up 0.45 [2] 3.6 Option Situation - The 20 - day historical volatility of Shanghai Aluminum is 9.50%, up 0.11%; the 40 - day historical volatility of Shanghai Aluminum is 8.76%, up 0.07% [2] - The implied volatility of the main at - the - money IV is 8.66%, up 0.0003; the option put - call ratio is 0.73, down 0.0451 [2] 3.7 Industry News - The US "reciprocal tariff" is about to be implemented on April 2. The EU has a strong counter - measure plan. Tariffs may push up inflation and unemployment [2] - The Caixin China Manufacturing PMI in March was 51.2, up 0.4 percentage points from February, reaching a new high since December 2024 [2] - The Ministry of Commerce held a national conference on promoting the replacement of old consumer goods with new ones, aiming to promote the use of smart terminal consumer goods [2] - From January to February, the added value of above - scale electronic information manufacturing increased by 10.6% year - on - year [2] - New energy vehicle companies released their March sales results. BYD, XPeng, Li Auto, etc. had good performance [2] 3.8 Alumina Viewpoint - The main contract of alumina fluctuates weakly, with increasing positions, spot discount, and weakening basis. The supply of alumina is expected to remain relatively loose, while the demand is expected to be good. It is recommended to conduct light - position oscillating trading [2] 3.9 Electrolytic Aluminum Viewpoint - The main contract of Shanghai Aluminum fluctuates, with decreasing positions, spot discount, and weakening basis. The supply of electrolytic aluminum is expected to increase steadily, and the demand is also expected to rise. The inventory is gradually decreasing. The option market sentiment is bearish. It is recommended to conduct light - position oscillating trading [2]