机构：中金公司 研究员：邓学/任丹霖/荆文娟 公司近况 公司公告，2025 年吉利实现乘用车销量3,024,567 辆，同比+39%，超出公司原定的300 万辆年度销量目 标。 评论 2025 年销量收官，全年销量超目标完成。分品牌来看，吉利主品牌、极氪、领克分别实现销量 2,449,939 辆、224,133 辆、350,495 辆，同比分别+47%/+1%/+23%，新车销量中新能源车型销量同比 +90%至1,687,767 辆，占比+15ppt至55.8%。我们认为，公司销量高增主要得益于银河品牌产品矩阵丰 富，星愿车型月销4 万辆以上，并在年内推出A7、星耀6、星耀8、M9 多款全新车型，推动银河品牌 2025 年销量同比+150%至1,235,807 辆，贡献主要增长点。在出口方面，出口销量同比+1%至420,097 辆，整体保持稳健。 设立2026 年销量目标345 万辆，产品矩阵持续拓宽，多品牌协同释放盈利弹性。公司设定2026 年乘用 车销量同比+14%至345万辆，其中新能源汽车销量同比+32%至222 万辆，分品牌来看，吉利/极氪/领克 销量目标分别为275 万辆、30 万辆、40 万辆。 ...

中金发布研报称，由于吉利汽车(00175)产品周期向上，多品牌协同提升盈利能力，上调2025/2026净利 润3.2%/8.9%至175亿元/215亿元。首次引入2027年净利润249亿元。当前股价对应2025/2026/2027年10.4 倍/8.3倍/7.0倍市盈率。维持跑赢行业评级和26.00港元目标价，对应11.9倍2026年市盈率，较当前股价 有42.9%的上行空间。 公司公告，2025年吉利实现乘用车销量3,024,567辆，同比+39%，超出公司原定的300万辆年度销量目 标。 2025年销量收官，全年销量超目标完成 分品牌来看，吉利主品牌、极氪、领克分别实现销量2,449,939辆、224,133辆、350,495辆，同比分别 +47%/+1%/+23%，新车销量中新能源车型销量同比+90%至1,687,767辆，占比+15ppt至55.8%。该行认 为，公司销量高增主要得益于银河品牌产品矩阵丰富，星愿车型月销4万辆以上，并在年内推出A7、星 耀6、星耀8、M9多款全新车型，推动银河品牌2025年销量同比+150%至1,235,807辆，贡献主要增长 点。在出口方面，出口销量同比+1%至420 ...

智通财经APP获悉，华创证券发布研报称，根据吉利汽车(00175)近期销量以及极氪私有化调整，将公司 2025-27E归母净利预测由178亿、240亿、272亿元上调至186亿、263亿、316亿元，对应PE8.8倍、6.3 倍、5.2倍。参考公司历史估值水平，综合考虑公司基本面以及行业整体趋势，给予公司2026年10倍 PE，对应目标价27.01港元，空间60%，维持"强推"评级。 华创证券主要观点如下： 销量方面，多款新车型助力下公司销量持续突破，11月实现销量31万辆，同比+24%，环比+1.1%。后 续随新车型规模化交付，以及明年吉利海外销量增长，公司总销量提升趋势延续，预计2025-27E销量 306万、370万、399万辆，同比+40%、+21%、+8%。盈利方面，以三款六座SUV为代表的中高端/高端 车型大幅提升公司产品结构，以更高的ASP和更高的毛利率有望显著带来净利总额增长。该行预计公司 2025-27E净利率5.5%、5.9%、6.4%，归母净利186亿、263亿、316亿元，其中核心归母净利润分别151 亿、253亿、306亿元(均考虑极氪私有化)。 低估值+强增长，吉利为明年整车bet ...

Group 1 - The company achieved a total sales volume of 310,000 units in November, representing a year-on-year increase of 24.1% and a month-on-month increase of 1.1% [1] - By brand, sales for Geely, Lynk & Co, and Zeekr were 247,000, 35,000, and 29,000 units respectively, with year-on-year changes of +76.3%, +7.3%, and +6.8% [1] - New energy vehicle (NEV) sales reached 188,000 units in November, a year-on-year increase of 53.4% and accounting for 60.5% of total sales, up 11.5 percentage points year-on-year [1] Group 2 - The company exported 42,000 units in November, marking a year-on-year increase of 22.2% [1] - The cumulative sales from January to November 2025 reached 2.788 million units, a year-on-year increase of 41.8% [1] - The strong new car cycle is expected to continue driving profitability in the NEV segment, with Zeekr and Lynk & Co focusing on high-end brand development [2] Group 3 - New models such as the Galaxy A7, M9, and Xingyao 6 have been launched, with accelerated deliveries expected in Q4 [2] - The high-end Lynk & Co 900 continues to see deliveries, while Zeekr 9X has accumulated over 40,000 orders, indicating strong demand [2] - The combination of scale enhancement and structural optimization is anticipated to improve profitability for Zeekr [2]

Core Viewpoint - 吉利汽车 reported strong performance in Q3 2025, with revenue reaching 89.2 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 27% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 15% [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - In Q3 2025, 吉利汽车 achieved a net profit attributable to shareholders of 3.82 billion yuan, an increase of 1.4 billion yuan year-on-year and 0.2 billion yuan quarter-on-quarter [1] - The company sold 760,000 vehicles in Q3 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 43% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 7.9% [1] - The gross profit margin for Q3 2025 was 16.6%, up 1.2 percentage points year-on-year but down 0.5 percentage points quarter-on-quarter [1] Group 2: Cost Management - Sales expense ratio in Q3 2025 was 6.0%, up 1.2 percentage points year-on-year and down 0.1 percentage points quarter-on-quarter [1] - Management expense ratio was 1.5%, down 0.6 percentage points year-on-year and down 0.4 percentage points quarter-on-quarter [1] - R&D expense ratio was 4.9%, up 0.3 percentage points year-on-year and down 0.2 percentage points quarter-on-quarter [1] Group 3: Product Strategy and Market Outlook - 吉利汽车 is launching a new product cycle with competitive models such as 银河A7 and 银河星耀8, which have achieved monthly sales of over 13,000 and 10,000 units respectively [2] - The company expects to maintain strong sales momentum, with projected total sales of 3.04 million, 3.73 million, and 4.02 million vehicles for 2025-2027, representing year-on-year increases of 40%, 23%, and 8% respectively [2] - The introduction of high-end models is expected to significantly enhance the company's product structure and profitability [2] Group 4: Profitability Forecast - Projected net profit margins for 2025-2027 are 5.2%, 6.0%, and 6.4%, with attributable net profits of 17.8 billion, 24 billion, and 27.2 billion yuan respectively [3] - The core net profit estimates for the same period are 14.3 billion, 23 billion, and 26.2 billion yuan [3] - The company is considered a top pick for the upcoming recovery in the automotive sector due to its low valuation and strong growth potential [3] Group 5: Investment Recommendation - Based on the strong new product cycle and improved product structure, the profit forecasts for 2025-2027 have been revised upwards [3] - The target price for 吉利汽车 is set at 26.00 HKD, representing a potential upside of 51% based on a 10x PE ratio for 2026 [3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [6] Core Insights - The company's profitability continues to improve, with exports expected to become a new growth driver [2] - EPS forecasts for 2025-2027 are adjusted to 1.68, 2.04, and 2.40 RMB respectively, with a target price set at 22.44 RMB and 24.62 HKD, based on a PE ratio of 11 times for comparable companies in 2026 [3] Financial Performance Summary - Revenue (in million RMB) is projected to grow from 179,204 in 2023 to 448,685 in 2027, with year-on-year growth rates of 21.1%, 34.0%, 33.0%, 21.3%, and 15.8% respectively [5] - Operating profit (in million RMB) is expected to increase from 3,806 in 2023 to 23,173 in 2027, with significant growth rates of 4.3%, 100.8%, 110.0%, 22.2%, and 18.1% [5] - Net profit attributable to the parent company (in million RMB) is forecasted to rise from 5,308 in 2023 to 24,318 in 2027, with growth rates of 0.9%, 213.3%, 2.5%, 20.9%, and 18.0% [5] - The gross margin is projected to improve from 15.3% in 2023 to 17.3% in 2027, while the net margin is expected to stabilize around 5.3% [5] Market Position and Strategy - The company is expected to maintain a strong market share, with sales growth outpacing the industry average, particularly in the electric vehicle segment [10] - The company is accelerating its global expansion, with exports anticipated to become a significant source of revenue and profit growth [10]

New Car Launches - The new Zeekr 7X has been launched with a price range of 229,800 to 269,800 CNY, featuring three models and significant upgrades in design and technology [2][3][11] - The new Avita 12 Four Laser Edition is priced between 269,900 and 429,900 CNY, offering both range-extended and pure electric versions with advanced driving assistance systems [14][20][22] - Smart's new model, the Smart 5 EHD, is priced from 189,900 to 239,900 CNY, featuring a hybrid system and a luxurious interior [23][30] - The new Denza N8L is launched at a price of 299,800 to 329,800 CNY, showcasing a modern design and advanced technology features [4][38] - Beijing Hyundai's EO model is available for pre-sale at 119,800 to 149,800 CNY, targeting the compact SUV market with competitive features [5][47] - Chery's new model, the Wind Cloud T11, is priced between 189,900 and 249,900 CNY, boasting high-end configurations and a spacious interior [6][54] - The Galaxy Star 6 has been launched with a price range of 74,800 to 105,800 CNY, featuring a new design and advanced technology [7][58] - The Deep Blue L06 has opened for pre-sale with a price range of 139,900 to 161,900 CNY, featuring a sporty design and advanced driving assistance [8][67] Company Dynamics - Horizon Robotics has partnered with ZF to develop a city navigation assistance system, set to be mass-produced by 2026 [70][75] - Xiaopeng Motors is establishing the first low-altitude flying car "6S" store in Guangzhou, aiming to integrate various flying services [76][79] - 4D Map has rebranded to SEEWAY.AI, focusing on AI strategies and expanding into autonomous driving technologies [81][84] - SAIC Group reported a growth in both sales and revenue in Q3, driven by strong performance in the electric vehicle segment [87][90] - BYD's Q3 revenue decreased by 3.05% to 194.99 billion CNY, with net profit down 32.6% due to competitive pressures [91][92] - Seres reported a 15.75% increase in revenue to 48.13 billion CNY, while net profit slightly declined [94][95] Sales Performance - BYD's October passenger car sales reached 436,856 units, maintaining a leading position in the electric vehicle market [100][104] - SAIC Group sold 207,000 new energy vehicles in October, leading the industry in total sales [106] - Geely's October new energy vehicle sales were 177,882 units, with significant contributions from its Galaxy brand [107][110] - Chery's new energy vehicle sales reached 110,346 units in October, marking a significant milestone [111][112] - Chang'an's new energy vehicle sales were 119,000 units, with strong performance from its Deep Blue brand [119] - Great Wall Motors sold 46,155 new energy vehicles in October, reflecting its ongoing transition to electric vehicles [120][121] - Leap Motor delivered 70,289 units in October, showcasing its strong market presence [122] - Hongmeng Zhixing delivered 68,216 units in October, benefiting from increased production capacity [125][127] - Xiaopeng Motors delivered 42,013 units in October, with new models contributing to sales growth [128][130] - NIO delivered 40,397 units in October, reflecting a successful year for the brand [131][133] - Xiaomi's vehicle deliveries exceeded 40,000 units in October, supported by favorable market conditions [134][136] - FAW delivered 38,900 new energy vehicles in October, marking a significant achievement [137][138] - Li Auto delivered 31,767 units in October, facing competitive pressures in the market [143][144] - Dongfeng Yipai Technology delivered 31,107 units in October, showing steady growth [146][148] - BAIC New Energy sold 30,542 units in October, driven by new model launches [149][152] - Lantu delivered 17,218 units in October, continuing its upward trajectory [153][155] - Jishi delivered 1,426 units in October, with plans for future expansion [156][159]

Group 1 - Chery's new model, the Fengyun T11, has been launched with a price range of 189,900 to 249,900 yuan, featuring four variants [1][3][15] - The vehicle is positioned as a full-size SUV with dimensions of 5205mm in length, 1998mm in width, and 1800mm in height, along with a wheelbase of 3120mm [4] - The T11 boasts a high-end interior with 11 premium features, including a 30-inch front display and advanced driver assistance systems, indicating its competitive positioning against luxury vehicles [6][8] Group 2 - The Galaxy Xingyao 6 has been launched with a price range of 74,800 to 105,800 yuan, featuring a compact design and a focus on user-friendly technology [9][11] - It is equipped with a new generation of hybrid technology, offering a maximum power of 82kW from its 1.5L engine and a pure electric range of 60km for the entry-level model [14] - The vehicle's competitive pricing allows it to compete effectively against rivals like the Qin PLUS [14] Group 3 - The Deep Blue L06 has opened for pre-sale with a price range of 139,900 to 161,900 yuan, featuring a sporty design and advanced technology [15][17] - It offers impressive performance with a 200kW motor and a pure electric range of up to 670km, showcasing its capabilities in the competitive mid-size sedan market [19][22] - The inclusion of unique features like a magnetorheological suspension system enhances its driving experience, setting it apart from competitors [20][22] Group 4 - SAIC Motor Corporation reported a significant increase in both sales and revenue in its third-quarter financial results [23][24] - The company has introduced several competitive models this year, including the MG4 electric vehicle and the collaboration with Huawei on the Shangjie H5, contributing to its growth [29] - SAIC regained the title of the top-selling domestic automaker in September, surpassing BYD, indicating strong market performance [29][30]

Core Viewpoint - Geely Automobile reported strong sales and revenue growth in August 2025, indicating a positive trend in the company's performance and market position [1] Sales Performance - In August 2025, Geely's wholesale sales reached 250,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 38% and a month-on-month increase of 5.2% [1] - Domestic sales accounted for 214,000 units, up 58% year-on-year, while exports were 36,000 units, down 22% year-on-year [1] - The Galaxy brand showed significant growth, with sales of 111,000 units in August, a year-on-year increase of 320% [1] Financial Performance - For the first half of 2025, Geely achieved revenue of 150.3 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 27%, and a core net profit of 6.7 billion yuan, up 100% year-on-year [1] - In Q2 2025, the company reported revenue of 77.8 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 28%, and a net profit of 3.6 billion yuan, up 19 billion yuan year-on-year [1] Strategic Developments - Geely is advancing its electric and intelligent transformation, with new models set to launch, including the Galaxy M9 and Lynk & Co 10 EM-P [1] - The company has raised its 2025 sales target from 2.71 million to 3 million units, reflecting confidence in its growth trajectory [1] - The integration of Geely, Galaxy, Lynk & Co, and Zeekr brands is expected to enhance cost efficiency and drive profitability [1] Future Outlook - The company forecasts total sales of 3.02 million, 3.4 million, and 3.96 million units for 2025-2027, representing year-on-year growth of 53%, 13%, and 16% respectively [1] - Geely's long-term strategy includes building an AI ecosystem through industry chain integration, which is anticipated to enhance competitiveness and business model [1] Investment Recommendations - Revenue forecasts for 2025-2027 have been adjusted upwards to 353.5 billion, 449.7 billion, and 530.1 billion yuan, reflecting year-on-year growth of 47%, 27%, and 18% [2] - The net profit estimates have also been revised to 16 billion, 21.8 billion, and 26.6 billion yuan, corresponding to a PE ratio of 10.8, 7.9, and 6.5 [2] - The target price is set at 26.04 HKD, indicating a potential upside of 39%, maintaining a "strong buy" rating [2]

Group 1 - In August, Geely's total sales reached 250,200 units, a year-on-year increase of 38.0% and a month-on-month increase of 5.2% [1] - New energy vehicle sales for Geely in August were 147,300 units, showing a year-on-year growth of 95.2% and a month-on-month increase of 13.2% [1] - Geely's total sales from January to August amounted to 1,897,100 units, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 47.3%, achieving 63.2% of the annual target of 3 million units by the end of August [1] Group 2 - In August, Geely's brand sales were 205,300 units, a year-on-year increase of 45.9% and a month-on-month increase of 6.1% [1] - The Geely Galaxy model sold 110,700 units in August, marking a year-on-year increase of 172.6% and a month-on-month increase of 16.4% [1] - The Geely Galaxy M9, a new large six-seat SUV, has begun pre-sales with a competitive price range of 193,800 to 258,800 yuan, achieving over 40,000 orders within 24 hours [1] Group 3 - Zeekr brand sales in August were 17,600 units, a year-on-year decrease of 2.2% but a month-on-month increase of 3.8% [2] - Lynk & Co brand sales in August reached 27,200 units, a year-on-year increase of 20.8% [2] - The Zeekr 9X has officially started pre-sales with a price range of 479,900 to 569,900 yuan, receiving over 42,000 orders within the first hour, indicating strong consumer demand for higher-end versions [2] Group 4 - The forecast for EPS from 2025 to 2027 is 1.49, 1.75, and 2.12 yuan respectively, maintaining a target price of 22.35 yuan [3] - The average PE valuation for comparable companies in 2025 is set at 15 times [3]