新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-12-25 价格重心上移，碳酸锂盘面继续冲高 市场分析 风险 2025-12-24，碳酸锂主力合约2605开于122000元/吨，收于124720元/吨，当日收盘价较昨日结算价变化5.89%。当日 成交量为949006手，持仓量为647366手，前一交易日持仓量671573手，根据SMM现货报价，目前基差为-21900元/ 吨（电碳均价-期货）。当日碳酸锂仓单17101手，较上个交易日变化450手。广期所将碳酸锂期货LC2605合约的交 易手续费和日内平仓交易手续费标准均调整为成交金额的万分之三点二，但是手续费的上调依然未能拦住投资者 的热情，期货继续大幅上涨。当前碳酸锂价格已处于2年内高位。 碳酸锂现货：根据SMM数据，电池级碳酸锂报价97000-106000元/吨，较前一交易日变化2000元/吨，工业级碳酸锂 报价96700-101000元/吨，较前一交易日变化2000元/吨。6%锂精矿价格1450美元/吨，较前一日变化30美元/吨。海 关总署数据显示，2025年11月我国碳酸锂进口总量约为22055吨，环比减少8%，同比增加15%，进口均价约为9915 美元/吨，较1 ...

Report Information - Report Name: Carbonate Lithium Futures Daily Report [1] - Date: December 17, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Non-ferrous Metals Research Team [4] - Researchers: Zhang Ping, Yu Feifei, Peng Jinglin [3] Report Highlights 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided. 2. Core View - Carbonate lithium futures are oscillating at a high level. Affected by weak market sentiment, the main contract of carbonate lithium futures once fell below 100,000. The 05 - 01 spread on the disk narrowed slightly to 1,860. The spot price of electric carbon increased by 700 to 95,850. The discount of the trading market to the main contract widened to (-3,200, -1,000). The price of lithium spodumene ore increased by 40 to 1,260, the price of lithium mica ore increased by 80 to 2,700, the price of ternary materials increased by 200 - 250, the price of iron - lithium increased by 165 - 170, and the price of electrolyte remained flat. The upward price trend in the industrial chain is stable, but the inventory reduction in social warehouses has slowed down, and the fundamental support momentum has weakened. In the short term, attention should be paid to the previous high pressure level. However, with the rising prices in the industrial chain, carbonate lithium futures are expected to be more likely to rise than to fall [9]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Carbonate lithium futures are in high - level oscillation. The main contract was affected by weak market sentiment and once fell below 100,000. The 05 - 01 spread narrowed slightly. The spot price of electric carbon, lithium ore, and some materials increased, while the electrolyte price remained unchanged. The price increase trend in the industrial chain is stable, but the inventory reduction in social warehouses has slowed down, and the fundamental support has weakened. It is expected that the futures are more likely to rise than to fall, and short - term attention should be paid to the previous high pressure level [9]. 3.2 Industry News - **M&A News**: Canadian lithium - mining developer Li - FT Power announced a binding agreement to acquire all issued shares of Australian listed company Winsome Resources for approximately $86.8 million. After the transaction, Winsome shareholders will hold about 35.3% of the merged company. Winsome's core asset is the Adina lithium - mining project, which is one of the top five lithium - resource projects in North America, with proven resources of 1.4 million tons of lithium oxide (grade 1.14%) and inferred resources of 16.5 million tons of lithium oxide (grade 1.19%) [12]. - **Distributed Energy Storage Report**: From 2019 to September 2025, the cumulative installed capacity of domestic distributed energy storage (connected at a voltage level below 35kV and with a power scale ≤6MW) increased from 570MW to 3,638MW. Since 2024, the growth rate has accelerated significantly. Jiangsu, Guangdong, and Zhejiang rank in the top three in terms of cumulative installed capacity. In different application scenarios, industrial and commercial energy storage accounts for 68.70%, followed by grid - side distributed energy storage at 8.30% and new energy - supported energy storage at 7.09%. Lithium - ion batteries account for 92.77% of the domestic distributed energy - storage installed capacity [12].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent activities of Duan Liping, the brother of the well-known investor Duan Yongping, highlighting his increasing presence in the capital market and investments in companies like Guocheng Mining, which has seen significant stock price increases due to favorable market conditions and strategic asset acquisitions [6][7][10]. Group 1: Duan Liping's Investment Activities - Duan Liping has been actively involved in the capital market, particularly with Guocheng Mining, which has experienced a stock price surge of approximately 127% from 13.63 CNY to a peak of 31.04 CNY per share [10]. - Guocheng Mining's recent announcements, including a major asset restructuring involving a 60% stake in Guocheng Industry, have contributed to its stock performance. The core asset is a significant molybdenum mine, which is crucial for various industries [10][11]. - As of the end of Q3 2025, Duan Liping holds a 0.56% stake in Guocheng Mining, ranking as the ninth largest circulating shareholder, alongside his spouse and another individual, collectively holding 1.64% of the company [12]. Group 2: Family Background and Business Connections - Duan Liping, born in 1957, has maintained a lower profile compared to his brother Duan Yongping, who has largely withdrawn from direct business involvement since moving to the U.S. in 2002 [15][16]. - Despite Duan Yongping's withdrawal, Duan Liping remains active in the business sector, holding positions in various companies related to the BuBuGao group, including Jiangsu BubuGao Real Estate and Guizhou BubuGao Liquor [21][22]. - The article highlights the familial ties and business collaborations between Duan Liping and other prominent figures in the industry, indicating a network of influence and shared interests within the BuBuGao ecosystem [19][21]. Group 3: Market Dynamics and Strategic Moves - The article notes that Duan Liping and his associates have strategically acquired control of LiYuan Co., a company facing operational challenges, for a relatively low price of 3.8 million CNY, indicating a calculated move to enter the automotive parts sector [22][23]. - The previous owners of LiYuan Co. were motivated to sell due to ongoing financial difficulties, including significant losses and legal issues, which made the sale a pragmatic decision [22][23]. - The acquisition reflects a broader trend in the market where established players are seeking opportunities in emerging sectors, such as the automotive industry, amidst changing economic conditions [23].

Core Insights - The article discusses the investment activities and market presence of Duan Liping, the elder brother of Duan Yongping, highlighting his increasing involvement in the capital market and the performance of Guocheng Mining [4][9]. Group 1: Duan Liping's Investment Activities - Duan Liping has been actively increasing his stake in Guocheng Mining, which has seen a significant stock price increase of approximately 127% from 13.63 CNY to 31.04 CNY per share within a month [5][6]. - Guocheng Mining's recent asset restructuring involves acquiring a 60% stake in Guocheng Industrial, which owns a major molybdenum mine, enhancing its core asset portfolio [6]. - The company also has a lithium mining project with a confirmed lithium oxide reserve of 112.07 million tons, making it the largest of its kind in Asia [8]. Group 2: Shareholding and Market Performance - As of September 30, Duan Liping held a 0.56% stake in Guocheng Mining, ranking ninth among the top ten circulating shareholders [9]. - By the third quarter of 2025, Duan Liping, along with his wife and another shareholder, collectively held 18,448,599 shares, representing 1.64% of the company, with a market value that peaked at approximately 573 million CNY during the stock price surge [11][12]. - Even at a closing price of 22.37 CNY per share on December 3, their combined holdings would still be valued at around 413 million CNY, reflecting a nearly 50% gain since the end of September [12]. Group 3: Business Connections and Collaborations - Duan Liping has maintained connections with the "Bubugao" group, collaborating with figures like Zhang Yuan, who is also involved in various business ventures related to the Bubugao brand [17][18]. - In February, Duan Liping and Zhang Yuan acquired control of Liyuan Co., Ltd. for 3.8 million CNY, a strategic move to enter the automotive parts sector, which is currently a hot market [19][22]. - The original controlling party of Liyuan Co. faced operational difficulties, leading to a pragmatic decision to sell control at a low price, indicating a shift in market dynamics [20][21].

Core Insights - The article discusses the recent activities and investments of Duan Liping, the elder brother of Duan Yongping, highlighting his increasing presence in the capital market and his strategic investments in the mining sector, particularly in non-ferrous metals [4][5][7]. Group 1: Duan Liping's Background and Investments - Duan Liping, born in 1957, is actively involved in the capital market and has been increasing his investments in companies like Guocheng Mining, which has seen a significant stock price increase of approximately 127% from 13.63 CNY to 31.04 CNY per share within a month [4][5][7]. - Guocheng Mining's recent announcements, including a major asset restructuring involving a 60% stake in Guocheng Industry, which owns a significant molybdenum mine, have contributed to its stock performance [7][10]. - Duan Liping holds a 0.56% stake in Guocheng Mining, ranking as the ninth largest circulating shareholder, alongside his wife Wang Xiaomei and Liao Yannan, who are also significant shareholders [8][10]. Group 2: Market Dynamics and Stock Performance - The article notes a broader trend in the non-ferrous metals market, where rising prices of gold and silver have positively impacted related stocks, including Guocheng Mining [5][7]. - The combined holdings of Duan Liping, Wang Xiaomei, and Liao Yannan in Guocheng Mining have increased in value significantly, with their shares worth approximately 4.43 billion CNY after a recent stock price adjustment [10][11]. Group 3: Strategic Collaborations and Acquisitions - Duan Liping has collaborated with other prominent figures in the industry, such as Zhang Yuan, to acquire control of listed companies like Liyuan Co., which was purchased for 38 million CNY, indicating a strategic move into the automotive parts sector [20][21]. - The acquisition of Liyuan Co. is seen as a calculated entry into a lucrative market, focusing on aluminum components for the automotive industry, which is currently a hot sector [21][22].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is that Guocheng Mining (000688) has reported significant growth in both revenue and net profit for the first half of 2025, with total revenue reaching 1.085 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 39.74%, and net profit attributable to shareholders at 521 million yuan, a remarkable year-on-year increase of 1111.34% [1] - In the second quarter, the company recorded a total revenue of 555 million yuan, which is a 16.28% increase year-on-year, but the net profit attributable to shareholders was a loss of 90.85 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 329.06% [1] - The financial indicators show a gross margin of 13.51%, a decrease of 63.95% year-on-year, and a net profit margin of 47.95%, an increase of 750.52% year-on-year [1] Group 2 - The company's return on invested capital (ROIC) was only 0.1% last year, indicating weak capital returns, and the net profit margin was -6.09%, suggesting low added value in its products or services [2] - Over the past decade, the median ROIC has been 6.76%, with a particularly poor performance in 2024, where ROIC was also 0.1%, indicating generally weak investment returns [2] - The company's performance heavily relies on capital expenditures, necessitating close monitoring of the viability and necessity of these capital projects [2] Group 3 - Jin Xin Mining, a subsidiary of Guocheng Mining, possesses a high-quality lithium ore resource in Sichuan, with a total identified ore volume of 84.255 million tons and a lithium oxide content of 1,120,731 tons, indicating strong development potential [3] - The mining operation has an annual production capacity of 1 million tons, with an expected raw ore extraction of 465,000 tons in 2024 [3]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that Chuaneng Power has achieved significant breakthroughs in its lithium battery business, with the Lijiagou spodumene mine project reaching its design capacity of processing 4,200 tons of ore per day and producing approximately 720 tons of concentrate daily, marking a new stage of efficient and stable production [1] - The annual production capacity of the Lijiagou mine is 1.05 million tons of raw ore and about 180,000 tons of concentrate, with potential for further increases in daily processing capacity up to 6,000 tons in the future [1] - The sales of new energy vehicles in China have surged, with a market share of 44.3% in new car sales in the first half of this year, leading to a significant recovery in the lithium battery industry's prosperity [1] Group 2 - The Lijiagou spodumene mine project is becoming a key force supporting the high-quality development of China's lithium battery industry, with an estimated annual revenue scale exceeding 900 million yuan from the lithium battery business [2] - The project has high-quality resource reserves, advanced environmental technology, and comprehensive industrial chain capabilities, indicating strong profitability and growth potential [2] - The lithium battery industry is experiencing a continuous recovery, with companies in the sector generally showing synchronized increases in revenue and profit, benefiting from new demand increments and technological innovations [2]

Transaction Overview - Jiangxi Ganfeng Lithium Co., Ltd. has approved a proposal to pledge its 49% equity in Minmetals Salt Lake Co., Ltd. and mining rights of two other subsidiaries to secure financing [1][2] - The pledge is intended to support the company's daily operations and financing activities [1] Recent Developments - The company has completed the pledge registration for the 49% equity in Minmetals Salt Lake [1] - As of the announcement date, the pledges for the mining rights of the two other subsidiaries have not yet been completed [2]

Summary of Zhongmin Resources Conference Call Industry and Company Overview - The conference call pertains to Zhongmin Resources, focusing on the lithium and copper sectors, with significant developments in their operations and market strategies [2][3][4][5]. Key Points and Arguments Lithium Sector Developments - Expected shipment volume for lithium carbonate and spodumene is over 40,000 tons in 2025, with the lithium battery segment becoming a crucial performance support starting in 2024 [2][3]. - The company is implementing cost-reduction measures for lithium carbonate production, including the commissioning of optical-electrical sorting equipment in Zimbabwe, which is anticipated to lower costs by approximately 5,000 RMB per ton [2][6][8]. - The total production cost is projected to be under 70,000 RMB per ton, with production costs around 50,000 RMB per ton [9]. Copper Projects Progress - The copper project in Zambia is progressing well, with product output expected by mid-2026 [5]. - The Namibia copper smelting plant is set to close in Q3 2025, with a rotary kiln already on-site and expected to produce by Q4 2025 [5]. Cost Management and Production Lines - The company has two flexible production lines in Jiangxi, with a 25,000-ton line undergoing renovation expected to complete in 2025, aimed at further cost reduction [7][8]. - The company is responding to Zimbabwe's planned ban on lithium concentrate exports by developing on-site lithium sulfate processing, which could significantly reduce costs and improve logistics [9][10]. Market Conditions and Future Outlook - The lithium market is currently under pressure due to price declines, but this presents opportunities for cost reduction [3][4]. - The company maintains a multi-metal strategy, with plans to increase copper production capacity from 50,000 tons to 100,000 tons over the next five years [4][16]. - The small metals segment has shown rapid growth, with revenues increasing from over 100 million RMB in 2019 to 1.4 billion RMB in 2024, indicating a positive market outlook [16]. Strategic Positioning - Zhongmin Resources has shifted focus from external geological exploration to enhancing its own mining reserves and seeking quality mineral resources, particularly in Africa [17]. - The company aims to strengthen its influence in the rare metals market, particularly in rubidium and strontium, by increasing production capacity and planning for long-term development [18]. Additional Important Insights - The company has a unique geological exploration background, which supports its multi-metal strategy and resource acquisition capabilities [15]. - The integration of fire and wet processing methods for product development is underway, with a total investment of approximately 200 million USD for the wet processing segment [4][13]. - The company has set ambitious targets, including achieving 100,000 tons of copper, 100,000 tons of aluminum, and 1 billion RMB in profits from the small metals segment [16]. This summary encapsulates the critical developments and strategic directions of Zhongmin Resources as discussed in the conference call, highlighting their operational advancements, market conditions, and future growth plans.

Group 1: Report Overview - Report date: June 6, 2025 [1] - Report title: Carbonate Lithium Futures Daily Report [1] - Research team: Nonferrous Metals Research Team [2] - Researchers: Zhang Ping, Yu Feifei, Peng Jinglin [2] Group 2: Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Carbonate lithium futures fluctuated weakly, with total positions decreasing by 321 lots. The game between long and short positions remained intense, and the spot price center continued to move down. Electric carbon dropped by 50 to 60,200, and the price of Australian lithium ore dropped by 2.5 to $607.5 per ton. The price of lithium mica ore remained flat, and the price of cathode materials also decreased. The downward trend in the industry chain remained unchanged [8]. - This week, the weekly production of carbonate lithium increased by 891 tons to 17,471 tons. Except for the decline in production at the recycling end, the production of carbonate lithium from other raw material ends increased, and the pressure on the supply side continued to exist. Whether the price of carbonate lithium can stop falling and rebound still depends on the strength of the demand side. In the short term, the futures price of carbonate lithium has not yet stabilized above the trend line and should still be treated with a weak perspective [8]. Group 3: Industry News - Rio Tinto is adjusting the cost of its lithium project in Serbia, which was identified as one of the 13 strategic new key material projects by the European Commission. The project was opposed by environmental groups and many Serbians due to environmental issues and led to large - scale street protests in 2022, resulting in the government revoking all of Rio Tinto's exploration licenses. The Constitutional Court overturned the decision last year and restored the licenses. The project was originally expected to start production in 2027, and the company still needs to obtain on - site mining licenses [9]. - Metal investor Cobalt Holdings will abandon its planned initial public offering (IPO) on the London Stock Exchange. The company did not disclose the specific reasons for canceling the plan. Sources revealed that the IPO process was aborted due to weak subscription demand, and the management still看好 the cobalt business model and market prospects and plans to explore alternative financing options such as private placement. The company's original plan to use most of the IPO proceeds (about $200 million) to purchase the first 6,000 tons of cobalt metal from Glencore has not been clearly determined whether to continue [9][10]. - According to the mineral and petroleum exploration data for the first quarter of 2025 released by the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS), the national exploration activities decreased significantly both quarter - on - quarter and year - on - year. The total exploration expenditure decreased by 18.4% (A$181 million) quarter - on - quarter to A$804.7 million, and the year - on - year decrease was 11.5% (A$105 million), a nearly 20% reduction from the quarterly peak in 2023 (over A$1 billion). Drilling activities also declined, with the new exploration drilling volume decreasing by 21.9% quarter - on - quarter and the total drilling meters decreasing by 11.6% [10].