更多资料加入知识星球:水木调研纪要 关注公众号:水木纪要 人民币升值,如何引领本轮牛市?20260104 人民币汇率升值对中国经济的影响是什么? 人民币汇率升值是中国在当前康波萧条期走向繁荣的关键契机。人民币升值可以 说是 2026年中国走向繁荣的起点,这是一个核心指标。我们预判 2026年及未来 几年内,人民币汇率有望相继升值突破前高的 6.8,甚至达到6.3。人民币汇率 中长期升值趋势主要源于中国强劲的对外出口能力,这种能力根植于 2018年前 后中国进入工业化成熟期。工业化成熟期国家通常具有强劲的对外出口能力,从 而带来本国货币中长期升值趋势。这一点在 1,945年后的美国和1975年后的日 本都得到了验证。 争 ケー · 人民币汇率有望突破前高,长期升值趋势源于中国工业化成熟期带来的强 劲出口能力,类似于美国 1,945年后和日本 1975年后经历,出口扩张带 动本币升值。 当前人民币升值不仅由企业结汇驱动,更受益于过去几年贬值期间流出的 ● 约 16 万亿资金回流,即使未来结汇减少,升值趋势仍将持续。 2026 年或成中国经济转折点,受益于美联储降息带来的跨境资本回流和 ● 可能的中国央行 QE 政 ...

Core Viewpoint - Barclays believes that the AI investment boom is triggering a global supercycle in commodities, presenting significant opportunities for investors [3][5]. Group 1: Capital Expenditure and Commodity Demand - Barclays estimates that capital expenditure by cloud service providers will exceed $2.5 trillion over the next five years, with copper demand being the most prominent [5][6]. - The report highlights that the demand for specific minerals and rare earth elements will surge due to ongoing upgrades in AI infrastructure [3][5]. - The International Energy Agency (IEA) projects that $500-600 billion in new investments will be needed for copper, lithium, nickel, and cobalt over the next 15 years, with copper accounting for half of this demand [7][8]. Group 2: Beneficiary Countries - Mining-exporting countries like Chile, Peru, and the Democratic Republic of Congo are positioned to benefit significantly from this investment cycle [10][9]. - Australia, Indonesia, and Brazil are also expected to see substantial gains from the export of other minerals and rare earth elements [11]. - Despite global mineral extraction being widespread, China dominates the refining sector, processing nearly 50% of global refined minerals, indicating a sustained tight trade relationship with the world [11]. Group 3: Historical Insights and Trade Conditions - Historical commodity boom periods, particularly those led by China from 2002-2007 and 2010-2014, show that fixed capital formation in commodity-exporting countries significantly contributes to GDP growth [13][15]. - The current supercycle is characterized by a decoupling of copper prices from oil prices, which traditionally have been correlated [20][24]. - This decoupling creates favorable trade conditions for countries that are net oil importers but major exporters of key minerals, enhancing their currencies' strength [24][28].

Core Insights - The Barclays research report highlights that the ongoing upgrade of AI infrastructure will lead to a significant increase in demand for specific minerals and rare earth elements, benefiting mineral-exporting countries over a multi-year investment cycle [1][4]. Group 1: AI Investment and Commodity Demand - The demand for copper is particularly emphasized as the most prominent beneficiary among AI-driven commodities, with countries like Chile, Peru, the Democratic Republic of Congo, and Australia expected to experience prolonged investment prosperity [1][5]. - The report estimates that capital expenditures from hyperscale cloud service providers will exceed $2.5 trillion over the next five years, indicating that related commodities such as energy, electrical infrastructure, and cooling systems will benefit from this AI investment cycle [4][6]. Group 2: Historical Context and Trade Dynamics - Historical commodity booms, particularly those driven by China in the early 21st century, show that commodity-exporting countries saw significant increases in fixed capital formation, contributing to GDP growth [10][13]. - The report notes a positive correlation between high export growth and the appreciation of the real effective exchange rate (REER), especially during commodity bull markets [14]. Group 3: Copper and Oil Price Decoupling - A notable feature of the current cycle is the decoupling of copper prices from oil prices, which traditionally moved in tandem. This decoupling is seen as a significant opportunity for investors [16][19]. - Countries that are major exporters of AI-critical minerals and net oil importers, such as Chile and Peru, will benefit from improved trade conditions, providing stronger support for their currencies [19][21]. Group 4: Future Outlook for Currencies - The report suggests that currencies like the Chilean peso, Peruvian sol, and Australian dollar are expected to perform well due to the copper-oil decoupling, indicating a new macroeconomic landscape driven by AI investments [22].

Core Viewpoint - The non-ferrous metal sector has emerged as one of the strongest performing sectors in the market since 2025, with the China Securities Shenyin Wanguo Non-Ferrous Metals Index leading 31 first-level sub-industries with a nearly 70% increase [2][4]. Group 1: Driving Factors Behind Sector Strength - The recent strength in the non-ferrous metal sector is attributed to multiple factors including macroeconomic easing, supply-demand dynamics, market sentiment, and sector rotation effects [17][18]. - The expectation of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve and a globally loose liquidity environment have weakened the dollar, enhancing the appeal of non-ferrous metals as a hedge against currency depreciation [17][18]. - Supply constraints coupled with rising demand from emerging sectors such as electric vehicles and photovoltaics have led to a tight supply-demand balance, driving prices higher [17][18]. - The valuation of the non-ferrous metal sector remains below historical averages, attracting capital inflows as other sectors face valuation pressures [17][18]. Group 2: "Davis Double Play" Phenomenon - The non-ferrous metal sector has experienced a "Davis Double Play" phenomenon this year, characterized by rising metal prices leading to significant improvements in corporate profit expectations, alongside a recovery in valuations from historically low levels [20][21]. - The sector's strong performance is further supported by its high beta characteristics and the strategic value of physical assets in an inflationary environment [20][21]. Group 3: Growth Potential Compared to Traditional Cycles - The non-ferrous metal sector exhibits better growth potential compared to traditional cyclical sectors, driven by demand from high-end manufacturing and strategic industries such as electronics, military, and renewable energy [23][24]. - The sector's demand is less reliant on real estate, which is currently under pressure, allowing for more stable growth prospects [23][24]. Group 4: Long-term Investment Value - The non-ferrous metal sector is viewed as having solid long-term investment value due to constrained supply and attractive valuations, especially in a low-risk yield environment [26][27]. - Key signals to monitor include the pace of Federal Reserve interest rate cuts, mining disruptions, domestic growth policies, and signs of stabilization in the Producer Price Index (PPI) [27][28]. Group 5: Strategic Value of Rare Earths - The recent tightening of rare earth export controls is expected to enhance China's competitive advantage in the global supply chain, reinforcing the strategic value of rare earths in high-tech industries [30][31]. - The strategic importance of rare earths is being re-evaluated, with their role in key sectors like electric vehicles and renewable energy expected to support long-term demand [30][31]. Group 6: Internal Logic and Investment Opportunities - The non-ferrous metal sector has significant internal logic differences, with precious metals driven by safe-haven demand, while industrial and energy metals benefit from macroeconomic recovery and energy transition [33][34]. - Investment opportunities may arise from sectors with strong demand certainty and clear supply constraints, as well as from rotational opportunities within sub-sectors [33][34].