Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley believes that the Chinese food delivery market is at a critical turning point, with overall order volume declining due to reduced subsidies and seasonal factors [1][2]. Group 1: Market Trends - The total daily order volume in the food delivery market has decreased from 151 million in September to a projected 141 million in November [2]. - The market share of Meituan has dropped to 50% (approximately 71 million daily orders), while Alibaba holds 42% (about 59 million daily orders), and JD.com has 8% (around 11 million daily orders) [2]. Group 2: Profitability Outlook - Meituan's average loss per order has improved from 1.8 yuan in September to an expected 1.2 yuan in November, while Alibaba's loss per order is projected to be 3.0 yuan in November, and JD.com's is even higher at 4.8 yuan [4]. - Meituan is expected to achieve breakeven by mid-2026, with profits of 0.4-0.5 yuan per order in the second half of 2026, while Alibaba may still incur losses but will gradually narrow them [4]. Group 3: Strategic Focus - Meituan is focusing on managing high-frequency, quality memberships and providing substantial coupon packages to enhance customer loyalty [5]. - Alibaba plans to continue significant investments in its food delivery and flash purchase businesses, aiming for breakeven and improving conversion rates from 2% to 4-5% [5]. - JD.com is concentrating on key flash purchase categories like 3C digital products and maternal and infant goods, serving its JD Plus members with a more focused strategy [6]. Group 4: Competitive Landscape - The intense subsidy competition is expected to ease by the first quarter of 2026, driven by regulatory scrutiny, seasonal demand fluctuations, and the unsustainability of high subsidies in the face of large order volumes [8].

天眼新知|双十一购物节进入新常态：理性消费与产业协同驱动发展 2025年的"双十一"购物节再次以惊人的数据刷新了人们对中国消费市场的认知。开卖首小时内，天猫平台即有80个品牌成交额突破亿元，30516个品牌实 现成交额同比翻倍，而京东平台同期亦有超过5.2万个品牌成交额同比翻倍增长。走过16个年头的"双十一"，其意义早已超越单纯的促销活动，进化为观 察中国消费韧性、产业变革与技术创新最重要的窗口。 消费趋势变迁与品牌格局重塑，理性个性化选择驱动产业精准适配 2025年的双十一显示，消费行为正朝着更理性、更注重品质和个性化的方向演变。平台的营销策略也随之调整，普遍采用"官方立减"、"一件直降"等简化 规则替代复杂的凑单模式，以迎合消费者对透明实惠和便捷体验的追求。 品牌格局在双十一期间呈现出更显著的分化态势。一方面，具备强大数字化运营能力的新老国货品牌表现抢眼。另一方面，新品与技术仍是吸引消费者的 关键。品牌增长分化加剧，具备数字化运营能力的商家更能抓住销售窗口期，这也对品牌的综合能力提出了更高要求。 消费市场的细分与下沉趋势同样明显。"Z世代"、"小镇青年"等新兴消费群体带来多元化、个性化的细分需求。与此同时 ...

Core Insights - The "Double Eleven" shopping festival has evolved from a single-day event to a month-long promotional period, reflecting a shift in consumer behavior towards more rational purchasing decisions [9][10][11] - The integration of online and offline retail strategies is becoming more pronounced, with businesses leveraging both channels to enhance consumer engagement and drive sales [19][20] Group 1: Changes in Consumer Behavior - Consumers are increasingly adopting a rational approach to shopping, moving from impulsive buying to need-based purchases, as evidenced by the slowing growth rates of GMV during "Double Eleven" [12][13] - The simplification of promotional strategies by e-commerce platforms indicates a maturation in consumer shopping habits, with a preference for straightforward discounts over complex promotional rules [12][13] Group 2: E-commerce Strategies - The duration of promotional activities has been extended significantly, with major platforms launching campaigns as early as September, leading to a competitive landscape focused on supply chain efficiency and customer experience [10][11] - Instant retail has emerged as a key player in this year's "Double Eleven," with platforms like Meituan and Taobao integrating rapid delivery services, enhancing consumer convenience and expanding market reach [15][16][17] Group 3: Offline Retail Participation - Physical retail spaces are actively participating in "Double Eleven," utilizing promotional events and experiential marketing to attract consumers, thereby benefiting from the increased foot traffic generated by online campaigns [18][19] - The emotional connection and experiential value offered by brick-and-mortar stores are becoming significant factors in consumer decision-making, as shoppers seek tangible interactions with products [20]

Summary of the Conference Call on China's Internet Industry and Flash Purchase Market Industry Overview - The conference call focused on the competitive landscape and future prospects of China's food delivery and flash purchase markets, which are experiencing intense competition and significant growth [1][2]. Key Points and Arguments 1. **Market Growth**: By August 2025, the average daily order volume in China's food delivery and flash purchase market is expected to reach approximately 180 million orders, representing over 80% growth compared to around 100 million orders in the same period last year [2][3]. 2. **Market Share Distribution**: - Meituan leads with approximately 85 million daily orders, capturing 47% of the market. - Alibaba follows closely with about 80 million daily orders, holding a 45% market share. - JD.com accounts for around 14 million daily orders, translating to an 8% market share [2][3]. 3. **Meituan's Strategy**: Meituan aims to maintain its market share through operational efficiency and leveraging its existing user and merchant base. Its market share has remained stable at 47% over the past three months [2][3][13]. 4. **Alibaba's Focus**: Alibaba is shifting its strategy to enhance its flash purchase business, targeting a market share of 50% and increasing traffic to its e-commerce platform. The company plans to consolidate its food delivery and flash purchase operations under the Taobao app [2][14]. 5. **JD.com's Approach**: JD.com is focusing on increasing user engagement and cross-selling to drive growth in its core e-commerce business, with a target of capturing 10-15% of the food delivery and flash purchase market [2][14]. 6. **Profitability Comparison**: - Meituan's average loss per order in the food delivery segment is estimated at 1.2 yuan, while Alibaba and JD.com incur losses of approximately 4.4 yuan and 5.5 yuan per order, respectively [7][12]. - In the flash purchase segment, Meituan's average loss is about 1.5 yuan per order, compared to Alibaba's 4.5 yuan [7][12]. 7. **Strategic Shifts Since 2018**: The current competition is more focused on flash purchases, which are expected to grow at a double-digit rate, compared to the previous emphasis on food delivery. Alibaba's organizational restructuring aims to enhance synergy across its various business units [14][15]. 8. **Emerging Competitors**: Pinduoduo has recently entered the flash purchase market, establishing self-operated warehouses and focusing on fresh produce. This new entrant is expected to compete more with local grocery stores than with the major internet platforms [16][17]. Additional Important Insights - The competitive dynamics have shifted significantly since 2018, with a greater emphasis on flash purchases and a more integrated approach within Alibaba's business units [14][15]. - The anticipated market trends suggest that the flash purchase segment will become increasingly critical for all players involved, with significant investment expected in the second half of 2025 [17]. This summary encapsulates the key insights from the conference call regarding the competitive landscape and strategic directions of major players in China's food delivery and flash purchase markets.

Summary of Conference Call Industry or Company Involved - The discussion primarily revolves around the **Chinese stock market** and the **automobile industry** in the context of macroeconomic trends and policies. Core Points and Arguments 1. **Market Resilience**: The Chinese stock market and global markets appear resilient despite economic data and policy uncertainties, driven by liquidity factors [1][2][3] 2. **Economic Outlook**: The expectation for China's economic growth is cautious, with GDP growth projected to slow down to around 4.5% or lower, and deflationary pressures likely to persist into the first half of the next year [2][6] 3. **Liquidity-Driven Bull Market**: There are signs of a liquidity-driven bull market, particularly since early July, with a shift in asset allocation from fixed income to equity assets [5][11] 4. **Investor Sentiment**: International investors are increasingly interested in China, with a notable shift in sentiment regarding the country's investability compared to six months ago [13][14] 5. **Inflation and Deflation Concerns**: Discussions around whether China will experience prolonged deflation similar to Japan have diminished, with a more optimistic outlook on breaking the deflationary cycle [14][15] 6. **Sectoral Focus**: The automobile industry is highlighted as a key sector for observing the effects of anti-involution policies, which aim to reduce excessive price competition and improve supply chain profitability [33][34] 7. **Policy Impacts**: Recent policies, such as the 60-day payment terms, are expected to help stabilize the automobile industry's pricing and competition dynamics [34][35] 8. **Long-Term Industry Transformation**: The automobile sector is expected to undergo a transformation towards innovation and high-quality development, although short-term challenges remain [35][36] 9. **Supply Chain Optimization**: There is a focus on optimizing supply chains and eliminating inefficient production capacities within the automobile industry [38] Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content 1. **Global Liquidity Trends**: The global liquidity environment is influencing investment decisions, with expectations of a potential easing of monetary policy in the U.S. impacting emerging markets, including China [7][8][28] 2. **Investment Strategies**: Investors are advised to consider the structural changes in the Chinese stock market, particularly the shift towards high-quality sectors such as technology and finance, which now dominate the MSCI China Index [17][18] 3. **Market Dynamics**: The divergence in performance between A-shares and Hong Kong stocks is noted, with A-shares expected to outperform in the near term due to lower relative valuations and sensitivity to policy changes [19][20][21] 4. **Consumer Behavior**: There is a growing trend of consumers shifting from fixed deposits to equity-linked financial products, indicating a change in investment behavior among residents [5][6] 5. **Future Monitoring**: The sustainability of liquidity improvements and the impact of upcoming economic policies will be critical to watch in the coming months [30][31]

Core Viewpoint - The recent statements from multiple food delivery platforms advocate for healthy competition and responsible business practices in response to regulatory guidance aimed at promoting fair competition and sustainable market practices [1][2]. Group 1: Industry Response and Regulation - The market regulatory authorities have previously engaged with major platforms like JD, Meituan, and Ele.me to encourage legal and fair business operations [1]. - The emphasis on avoiding unsustainable competitive practices, such as "zero-yuan purchases" and selling below cost to gain market dominance, reflects the industry's commitment to social responsibility [1][2]. Group 2: Market Dynamics and Consumer Behavior - In the platform economy, merchants face market pressures not only from direct competition but also from the platforms themselves, which leverage data and scale to respond to market changes [2]. - The potential for service consumption growth is significant, as increasing frequency of service usage can lead to substantial consumption increases, aligning with national policies to boost domestic demand [2]. Group 3: Economic Impact of Subsidies - A study from Peking University indicates that effective subsidy strategies can stimulate platform consumption and generate significant spillover effects, with every 1 yuan of effective flash purchase subsidy leading to an additional 6.76 yuan in consumer spending [3]. - The estimated total consumption increase from platform subsidies could reach 676 billion yuan, representing 1.4% of the projected total retail sales of consumer goods in 2024 [3]. Group 4: Balancing Efficiency and Diversity - The harsh realities of market competition can lead to the closure of small businesses that provide unique value, highlighting the need for platforms to balance efficiency with the preservation of market diversity [3]. - Platforms are encouraged to utilize data analytics to identify and support unique merchants, ensuring their survival during challenging market conditions [3]. Group 5: Sustainable Development and Social Responsibility - The food delivery market is becoming a crucial driver of consumption upgrade, employment, and public service, necessitating a focus on service quality and the balanced interests of platforms, merchants, delivery personnel, and consumers [4]. - Achieving sustainable industry development requires a multi-faceted approach that considers both economic and social benefits [4].

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of resisting malicious competition in the food delivery industry, advocating for a fair and orderly market environment to promote mutual benefits among all parties involved [1][3]. Group 1: Company Initiatives - Meituan has committed to regulating promotional activities and eliminating unfair competition, aiming to establish a healthy and sustainable development in the catering service industry [1]. - The company plans to issue subsidies based on consumer and merchant needs, ensuring transparency and protecting merchants' rights [5]. - Meituan will actively resist irrational promotional activities, such as large-scale "0 yuan purchases," to safeguard merchants' earnings and operational integrity [5][6]. Group 2: Industry Collaboration - Meituan and Ele.me have jointly announced their commitment to resist malicious competition and promote ecological win-win cooperation within the industry [3]. - The companies are focusing on enhancing service quality, providing diverse consumption scenarios, and improving delivery network efficiency to better serve consumers [6]. - A feedback system has been established to address core issues such as merchant participation, product quality, and rider rights, with ongoing discussions taking place across various regions [6].