In Donald Trump's world, the strong take what they can That will be bad for America—and everyone else 在唐纳德·特朗普的世界里，强者夺取他们能拿走的一切。 这对美国很糟糕，对世界其他地 方也如此。 插图来源：《经济学人》/盖蒂图片社 12年来，尼古拉斯·马杜罗对委内瑞拉实施统治，导致该国GDP暴跌69%。四分之一的人 口被迫流亡海外。这场经济崩溃与人口外逃的严重程度，甚至超过了最血腥内战时期的典型 情况。然而，就在2026年1月3日，他被美国特种部队突袭抓获，就此消失。 这次突袭的意义远超委内瑞拉一国。原因有三：一是行动方式；二是行动动机；三是行动时 机。首先，这是一次硬实力的惊人展示，同时也暴露了其局限性。其次，特朗普并未像以往 美国总统那样以民主或人权为由，而是直言要夺取委内瑞拉的石油，并确立美国在西半球的 主导地位。第三，这一事件发生在旧有国际秩序——联合国决议、国际法和普世价值观—— 加速瓦解之际。当前上演的这场大戏，将深刻影响未来世界秩序的走向。 先看"如何"发生。除美军外，没有任何其他国家的军队能 ...

（来源：直新闻） 在海湖庄园的临时指挥所内，特朗普与其核心战争团队远程监控这场军事行动的进行。在批准作战行动后，总统能做的事情就是"观看直播"，除非面临重 大变数，否则已不需更多指令。 直新闻：吴先生，在美国总统特朗普授意下，美军对委内瑞拉发起的"绝对决心"军事行动取得了所谓"重大战果"。从军事角度分析，这场行动有哪些细节 值得玩味？ 要复盘这场"一夜之间"的军事行动，恐怕要把时间的坐标拖回到去年9月由特朗普亲自推动、赫格赛斯亲力亲为的"南方之矛"行动。从某种意义上看，美 军之所以能够在2026年的开端以雷霆之势一夜洞穿委内瑞拉的国防体系直抵中枢擒拿委总统马杜罗，离不开"南方之矛"行动长达4个多月的前期铺垫与外 围试探。是的，对于国际舆论的观感而言，"南方之矛"行动就是一个冗长的"用航母欺负小渔船"过程。当外界逐渐对美军这种违反国际法、肆意杀戮的做 法审丑疲劳时，美军已经通过这几个月的实际使用兵力摸清了委内瑞拉在海防、空防与陆防的军事部署。我相信，"绝对决心"行动的战役谋划也是在过去 这几个月的逐步试探中渐渐明晰的。美军逐渐摸清了委内瑞拉的防御体系构筑方式，为撕开突破口找到了"解题思路"。 "绝对决心"行动的 ...

"我认为他们很软弱。"特朗普表示，"我认为他们不知道该怎么办。""欧洲不知道该怎么办。" 同样，在这份长达3页的文件中，特朗普指责欧盟和欧洲国家纵容移民激增、出生率下降以及所谓的民 主自由遭到侵蚀，导致"文明消亡"的风险增加。 据环球网报道，近日，美国总统特朗普在接受采访时，抨击欧盟是一个由"软弱"之人主导的"正在衰 败"的国家集团，他指责美国的这些传统盟友国家未能控制移民、结束俄乌冲突，并表示自己将支持与 其自身愿景相一致的欧洲政界人士。 据称，特朗普此次对欧洲政治领导层的猛烈抨击，是他迄今为止对这些西方国家发出的最严厉批评。 特朗普的这番言论不出意料地引发强烈反响，同时也引来欧洲一众政客、前政客的无情批评，最终让自 己成了"吐槽大会"主角。 一而再、再而三地贬损欧洲及其领导人 当地时间12月10日，特朗普接受了网络政治专业杂志《POLITICO》的专访。 在专访中，特朗普痛斥欧洲国家"衰落"，理由是"未能控制移民，也未能采取果断行动结束俄乌战争"， 更放任乌克兰"战斗到最后一刻"，指责欧洲领导人"只会空谈，却不付诸行动。战争就这样没完没了地 持续着"，声称"意识形态分歧"正威胁到华盛顿与欧洲的联盟关系。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The cryptocurrency market experienced a significant rebound, with Bitcoin rising over 4% and Ethereum over 3%, driven by oversold conditions and expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [1][2][3] Market Performance - As of November 27, Bitcoin's price reached $91,420, marking a cumulative increase of over 13% from its low of $80,843 on November 21 [2] - The total liquidation amount in the cryptocurrency market reached $301 million (approximately 2.1 billion RMB), with over 100,000 traders liquidated within 24 hours [1] Factors Driving the Rebound - The rebound is attributed to two main factors: 1. Oversold conditions in the cryptocurrency market, particularly for Bitcoin, which had previously peaked at over $126,000 before dropping to around $80,000 [3] 2. Rising expectations for a Federal Reserve interest rate cut, with an 84.9% probability of a 25 basis point cut in December, boosting investor sentiment [3][4] Federal Reserve Leadership Speculation - Kevin Hassett, the Director of the National Economic Council, is considered the leading candidate for the next Federal Reserve Chair, which could lead to a more dovish monetary policy [4] - Hassett has indicated a willingness to implement immediate rate cuts if appointed, aligning with President Trump's economic strategies [4] Impact of Political Climate on Cryptocurrency - The decline in Bitcoin's price is linked to President Trump's decreasing approval ratings, which have fallen to 38%, the lowest since his second term began [8] - Nobel laureate Paul Krugman suggests that Trump's waning influence negatively affects Bitcoin prices, as the cryptocurrency has become associated with "Trumpism" [7][9][10] Historical Context of "Trump Trade" - The "Trump trade" refers to the surge in cryptocurrency prices following Trump's election, driven by expectations of favorable policies for digital assets [10] - Despite initial support for cryptocurrencies, the market has faced volatility due to trade wars and other economic factors during Trump's presidency [10]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses a significant currency swap agreement worth $20 billion between the United States and Argentina, aimed at stabilizing Argentina's economy and supporting President Milei ahead of the upcoming elections [5][8]. Group 1: Currency Swap Agreement - The agreement is referred to as a "currency swap," but many U.S. media outlets describe it as "emergency credit," essentially a loan from the U.S. Treasury to the Milei government [6][8]. - The currency swap allows for a controlled exchange, where funds can be accessed gradually rather than in a lump sum [7]. - This marks the first large-scale U.S. financial assistance to a foreign government in economic distress since the $20 billion loan to Mexico in 1995 [8]. Group 2: Argentina's Foreign Exchange Reserves - Argentina's reported foreign exchange reserves stand at $33 billion, but much of this is not readily available for market support [13]. - Of the $33 billion, $13 billion is in RMB for trade with China, and $12 billion is theoretical reserves from commercial banks, which could lead to a loss of confidence if misused [14]. - After accounting for these factors, Argentina's actual foreign reserves are only a few billion dollars, raising concerns about its fiscal health [15]. Group 3: Implications for China - The U.S. support for Argentina indirectly benefits China, as it is Argentina's largest trading partner and investor, with a currency swap agreement worth 130 billion RMB [22]. - The U.S. Treasury's commitment to stabilize the peso market is seen as a way to mitigate risks for Chinese investments in Argentina [22]. Group 4: Political Context - The article highlights the unusual nature of U.S. support for Argentina, a country not traditionally aligned with U.S. interests, especially under a "America First" administration [24]. - The support for Milei is viewed as part of a broader strategy to counter leftist movements in Latin America, with the success of his reforms being crucial for U.S. interests [25][26].

Group 1 - The core agreement between Trump and Argentine President Milei involves a significant currency swap totaling $20 billion, which is viewed by many U.S. media as an emergency credit or loan from the U.S. Treasury to the Milei government [1][2][6]. - The currency swap agreement is designed to be controllable, allowing for gradual exchanges rather than a lump-sum payment [3]. - The U.S. aims to stabilize Argentina's fragile financial market and support Milei ahead of the upcoming legislative elections on October 26, where losing majority seats could severely limit his government's economic control [4][5][8]. Group 2 - This marks the first large-scale U.S. financial assistance to a foreign government in economic distress since the $20 billion loan to Mexico during the Clinton administration in 1995 [6]. - The U.S. government has also purchased an unspecified amount of Argentine pesos, marking the fourth time since 1996 that the U.S. has bought foreign currency [7]. - Argentina's foreign reserves are critically low, with only about $33 billion reported, but much of this is not readily available for supporting the peso [13][14][15]. Group 3 - The agreement is seen as a way to make the loan assistance sound more palatable, as the U.S. dollar is already a global currency and does not require conversion to other currencies for transactions [16][17]. - Argentina has a history of alternating between left and right governments, with leftist administrations typically signing currency swap agreements with China and rightist governments seeking financial aid from the IMF and the U.S. [18]. - The U.S. support for Argentina is also viewed as a strategic move to counterbalance China's influence, as China is Argentina's largest trading partner [22]. Group 4 - The U.S. Treasury Secretary has emphasized the commitment to take necessary measures to maintain peso market stability [23]. - There are criticisms regarding the U.S. assistance to Argentina, especially from agricultural sectors in the U.S. that feel their interests are being overlooked [21][23]. - The political dynamics in South America are shifting, with the U.S. keen on supporting right-wing governments like Milei's to counter leftist trends in the region [25][26].

Group 1 - The core argument is that the tariffs imposed by the Trump administration have negatively impacted the U.S. economy, leading to increased costs for businesses and consumers, market volatility, and disruptions in the global supply chain [1][3][11] - The root cause of the current situation in the U.S. is long-standing social issues, including wealth concentration and increasing inequality, which have left many citizens feeling abandoned by the system [3][11] - Trump's tariff policies, initiated in 2018, aimed to combat unfair trade practices but resulted in retaliatory measures from other countries, adversely affecting U.S. farmers and manufacturers [5][9] Group 2 - The tariffs led to significant cost increases for American consumers, with estimates indicating that tariffs imposed in 2018 alone cost U.S. companies and consumers an additional $51 billion [9][11] - Despite the intention to reduce the trade deficit, the tariffs have not achieved this goal; instead, the trade deficit has increased due to higher import costs without a corresponding improvement in exports [9][11] - The economic policies have contributed to a decline in U.S. global influence, with a shift towards isolationism and protectionism, which threatens democratic values and accelerates the de-dollarization process [13][18] Group 3 - The long-term outlook is pessimistic, with expectations of continued trade friction and potential inflation resurgence, leading to increased business failures and a search for alternative trade partners by allies [17][18] - The article emphasizes the need for continuous investment in education and public welfare to prevent societal division and political crises, highlighting the responsibility of elites to address inequality [15][18]

Core Points - The assassination of Charlie Kirk, a prominent conservative activist and ally of Trump, reveals a complex political landscape, suggesting the suspect may be linked to the far-right rather than the "radical left" as initially claimed [1][2][12] - The suspect, Tyler Robinson, has raised questions about his political affiliations, with speculation about his connection to the "Groyper" movement, which has been in conflict with mainstream conservatives like Kirk [1][3][6][18] Group 1: Incident Overview - Charlie Kirk was shot and killed in Utah, with Tyler Robinson arrested as the suspect after his father reported him following a confession [1][2] - Initial reactions from Trump and Vice President Vance blamed the "radical left," but investigations suggest Robinson's ties to the far-right [1][2] Group 2: Political Implications - The incident highlights deep ideological rifts within the conservative movement, particularly between mainstream conservatives and the far-right represented by figures like Nick Fuentes [1][18] - Kirk was seen as a moderate voice within the conservative movement, often criticized by the far-right for his positions, which may have contributed to the tensions leading to his assassination [18][19] Group 3: Suspect's Background - Tyler Robinson's political leanings have come under scrutiny, with social media users linking him to the "Groyper" movement based on his attire and online behavior [3][6][8] - Despite these claims, authorities have not confirmed Robinson's membership in any far-right organizations, and he was registered as an independent voter [12] Group 4: Groyper Movement - The "Groyper" movement, associated with white nationalism and led by Nick Fuentes, has been in conflict with mainstream conservative groups, including Kirk's "Turning Point USA" [13][15][17] - The movement gained notoriety for disrupting conservative events and challenging figures like Kirk, accusing them of diluting Trump’s message [17][18] Group 5: Future of Conservative Politics - The power struggle for the future of Trumpism is intensifying, with figures like Fuentes positioning themselves as challengers to mainstream conservatism [20][21] - Experts express concern that the absence of moderate voices like Kirk may lead to a rise in more radical and violent rhetoric within the conservative movement [22]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the evolution of the global economic order since the 1980s, highlighting the impact of globalization and free trade, the rise of "America First" ideology, and the challenges faced by China in this changing landscape [1][4]. Group 1: Globalization and Economic Order - Since the 1980s, globalization and free trade have formed the foundation of the current global economic order, driven by neoliberal reforms initiated by leaders like Reagan and Thatcher [3]. - The principle of "capital supremacy" underpins the liberal global economic order, advocating for the free flow of goods, technology, and capital across borders [3]. Group 2: Impact on American Society - While globalization has benefited the U.S. economy, the gains have been concentrated among multinational corporations and elite groups, leading to significant losses for the broader American populace [4]. - The closure of approximately 60,000 factories since 2001 has resulted in the loss of 4.8 million manufacturing jobs, exacerbating social inequalities [4]. Group 3: Political Response and Ideological Shift - The "America First" movement, associated with Trumpism, emerged as a reaction against the perceived failures of globalization, advocating for the interests of the working class and small businesses [4][6]. - Tariffs are viewed as a strategic tool to counteract the loss of comparative advantage in manufacturing, aiming to bring jobs back to the U.S. and stimulate economic growth [5]. Group 4: Biden Administration's Approach - The Biden administration has continued some of Trump's economic policies, reflecting the political reality that defending worker interests has become a central theme in American politics [9][10]. - Despite efforts to correct course, such as reducing tariffs, the Biden administration has faced challenges in reversing the trend of de-globalization [9][10].

Core Points - The "2025 Plan" is a comprehensive policy roadmap developed by the Heritage Foundation, aimed at institutionalizing Trumpism and outlining a conservative agenda for a potential second Trump administration [1][2][3] - The plan consists of four main pillars: presidential missions, a personnel database, the establishment of a "Presidential Executive Academy," and a 180-day action handbook for the new administration [2][3] - The plan proposes significant reforms across various sectors, including drastic tax cuts, the abolition of the Department of Education, and changes to immigration and environmental policies [3][9] Group 1: Plan Overview - The "2025 Plan" is a 920-page document released by the Heritage Foundation, detailing a $22 million initiative developed in collaboration with over 100 conservative groups [1][2] - The plan is described as a "transition plan" based on the assumption that Trump and the Republican Party will win the upcoming presidential election [1][2] Group 2: Key Components - The first pillar emphasizes expanding presidential powers and reforming federal agencies, including the dismissal of leadership in the State Department in favor of conservative figures [2][3] - The second pillar involves creating a personnel database to identify federal employees loyal to Trump and conservative ideals, akin to a "right-wing LinkedIn" [3][4] - The "Presidential Executive Academy" is an online education system aimed at training individuals on government operations, although it has been criticized for its ideological bias and lack of substantive content [4] Group 3: Implementation and Impact - As of July 2023, over 40% of the 313 objectives outlined in the "2025 Plan" have been achieved or are in progress, with 98 objectives completed and 66 currently being implemented [9] - Critics argue that the plan poses significant risks to democratic institutions and civil liberties, with concerns raised by organizations like the ACLU regarding its potential to undermine rights for immigrants and marginalized groups [9][10] - The plan's authors and contributors have strong ties to the Trump administration, with many having held positions in Trump's first term, indicating a continuity of influence [5][6][8] Group 4: Future Outlook - Despite Trump's public distancing from the "2025 Plan," its proposals continue to be integrated into government policy, with ongoing efforts to implement its agenda [9][11] - Analysts suggest that the conservative authors of the plan are engaged in a long-term strategy to reshape American governance and societal structures, aiming to reverse progressive policies from previous decades [11]