注意了，美国下届总统候选人阵营突然爆出颠覆全球预判的惊天骗局，最终人选彻底跳出所有人的既定想象。既非呼声登顶的万斯，亦非政坛老 牌精英鲁比奥，甚至连共和党顶层智囊都猝不及防。 美国最新权威大选民调直接炸翻党内初选格局——一位从未正式官宣、连竞选团队都尚未搭建的非正式候选人，支持率狂飙突进，稳居第二，硬 生生扭转共和党的竞选轨迹，更可能彻底改写2028年美国大选的终极走向。 此人既非德桑蒂斯，亦非任何建制派老将，答案只有一个：唐纳德·特朗普的长子小唐纳德·特朗普。他虽无公职履历，却全程参与其父的政治运 动。他凭什么能横空出世、逆袭突围？本文将深入剖析这冰冷数据背后的火热真相，审视这匹黑马是否真有可能掀翻美国政坛的既有秩序。 小唐纳德·特朗普 首先，审视最硬核、最冰冷的真实数据。 2025年11月的民调显示，万斯以34%的支持率暂时领跑，小特朗普以24%紧随其后。表面看来，十个百分点的差距似乎并不算小；然而，只要将 时间轴拉长，所有人都会倒吸一口凉气。 就在2025年8月，万斯尚以20个百分点的碾压优势遥遥领先；短短数月间，这一差距已被直接腰斩，缩水至一半。这并非一场静态的排位赛，而 是一场支持率飞速逆转的追逐战 ...

Core Argument - The book "American Made" by Edward Stettner argues that "Trumpism" is not an anomaly but rather a continuation of darker chapters in American history, reflecting long-standing contradictions within the nation [3][4]. Group 1: Historical Context - The author analyzes six key aspects of American history: religion, imperialism, immigration, tariffs, political persecution, and presidential power, to contextualize the current political landscape [3][4]. - Historical land acquisitions, such as the Louisiana Purchase in 1803, exemplify America's imperial ambitions, where the U.S. doubled its territory at the expense of Native Americans [4][5]. - The U.S. government forced Mexico to cede over half of its territory approximately 40 years after the Louisiana Purchase, highlighting a pattern of aggressive territorial expansion throughout the 19th century [5]. Group 2: Political Practices - The book draws parallels between current government actions and historical precedents, such as the detention and expulsion of individuals without trial, reminiscent of the Alien and Sedition Acts signed by President John Adams in 1798 [6]. - Historical examples of presidential defiance against judicial rulings, such as Andrew Jackson's refusal to enforce Supreme Court decisions, illustrate a long-standing tension between executive power and the rule of law [6]. - The increase of import tariffs to around 50% by President William McKinley is cited as a disastrous move for the Republican Party, reflecting the recurring theme of economic protectionism in U.S. politics [6].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the resurgence of protests in Minneapolis following immigration enforcement shootings, highlighting the controversial nature of Trump's immigration policies and the broader implications for American political dynamics [2][6]. Group 1: Immigration Policy and Public Response - The shooting of Alex Preti on January 24 and the earlier death of Reign Nicole Good on January 7 by ICE agents sparked nationwide protests against Trump's immigration policies, marking the third major anti-government demonstration since his presidency began [2]. - The protests were characterized by the slogan "No King," reflecting a historical resistance to authority and a critique of Trump's governance style [2]. Group 2: Historical Context of American Conservatism - American conservatism has evolved through various phases, with anti-communism becoming a key pillar during the Cold War, emphasizing free market economics, traditional values, and opposition to communism [3][4]. - William Buckley, a significant figure in modern conservatism, integrated these elements into a cohesive ideology, which faced challenges during the 1960s and 70s due to social upheaval and the civil rights movement [3][4]. Group 3: The Rise of Neoconservatism - The emergence of neoconservatism in the 1970s, characterized by a reaction against liberal welfare policies and radical civil rights stances, marked a shift in conservative thought, leading to a more interventionist foreign policy under George W. Bush [5][6]. - Bush's administration emphasized unilateral military action and government intervention, contrasting with earlier conservative approaches that favored limited government [5]. Group 4: Trump's Unique Position in Conservatism - Trump represents a departure from traditional conservatism, embodying a populist approach that prioritizes domestic interests and challenges established political norms [6][7]. - His administration's policies, including strict immigration enforcement and trade protectionism, reflect a shift towards a more nationalist and pragmatic form of governance, diverging from the idealistic tenets of neoconservatism [7][8]. Group 5: The Impact of Trump's Governance - Trump's presidency has seen an unprecedented expansion of executive power, undermining traditional checks and balances and altering the landscape of American conservatism [9][10]. - The article posits that Trump's influence will leave a lasting mark on American politics, raising questions about the future trajectory of the nation amidst rising populism and nationalism [10].

Core Viewpoint - Despite market volatility surrounding the Greenland issue and potential tariffs from the U.S. on certain EU countries, JPMorgan remains cautiously optimistic, believing that the current chaos will ultimately de-escalate into a "negotiated arrangement" rather than evolve into a full-blown crisis [1]. Group 1: Market Analysis - JPMorgan's International Market Intelligence team suggests interpreting the current market turmoil from the perspective of "the art of negotiation," with the U.S. adopting a tough stance to trigger negotiations and create leverage [1]. - The firm notes that the EU's response, including potential retaliatory tariffs and warnings about the impact on the U.S.-EU trade agreement, is more of a strategic posturing than a genuine threat [1]. - Analyst Federico Manicardi believes that the situation is not fundamentally difficult to resolve, with a potential solution emerging during the upcoming World Economic Forum (WEF) [1][3]. Group 2: Risk Assessment and Predictions - JPMorgan has ruled out extreme scenarios that could arise from the Greenland situation, such as the sale of Greenland or an invasion, deeming them highly unlikely due to the complexities involved and the unpopularity of such actions among voters [3]. - The firm has identified key catalysts for investors to watch, including President Trump's speech scheduled for January 21 at the WEF, which may focus on potential candidates for the Federal Reserve Chair and issues of affordability [3]. - On a macro level, JPMorgan observes a strong start to the year, with industries and regions in a leading position, and investors anticipating an economic reboot by 2026 [3].

Group 1 - The global landscape has become increasingly unpredictable due to two major events: the rise of "Trumpism" in the U.S. and the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine war in Europe [10][35] - The U.S. has experienced deepening societal divisions, leading to a populist backlash against traditional political establishments, exemplified by Trump's "Make America Great Again" slogan and the initiation of trade wars [20][24][26] - The Russia-Ukraine war has disrupted the status quo in Europe, creating significant uncertainty and elevating the risk of large-scale conflict, which compounds the unpredictability stemming from U.S. domestic issues [36][37] Group 2 - The evolution of global economic growth has transitioned through three phases: from "amplifying physical capabilities," to "amplifying intellectual capabilities," and now to a stage where systems begin to think independently [3][4][56] - The current phase, characterized by the rise of artificial intelligence, presents both opportunities and risks, as AI systems may act autonomously, raising concerns about control and ethical implications [4][60] - Companies must adapt to this new environment by embracing flexibility and resilience, preparing for unexpected developments, and shifting their mindset from representing a national identity to integrating as local entities in foreign markets [75][76][69] Group 3 - Chinese companies expanding internationally should prioritize understanding local laws regarding national security and avoid sectors that may conflict with these regulations [62][68] - A significant shift in mindset is necessary for Chinese firms to operate successfully abroad, emphasizing the importance of being perceived as local companies rather than extensions of the Chinese government [69][70] - The future landscape will be shaped by four key areas: philosophy, AI technology, economy, and politics, which are interconnected and essential for navigating the complexities of the modern world [77][78]

In Donald Trump's world, the strong take what they can That will be bad for America—and everyone else 在唐纳德·特朗普的世界里，强者夺取他们能拿走的一切。 这对美国很糟糕，对世界其他地 方也如此。 插图来源：《经济学人》/盖蒂图片社 12年来，尼古拉斯·马杜罗对委内瑞拉实施统治，导致该国GDP暴跌69%。四分之一的人 口被迫流亡海外。这场经济崩溃与人口外逃的严重程度，甚至超过了最血腥内战时期的典型 情况。然而，就在2026年1月3日，他被美国特种部队突袭抓获，就此消失。 这次突袭的意义远超委内瑞拉一国。原因有三：一是行动方式；二是行动动机；三是行动时 机。首先，这是一次硬实力的惊人展示，同时也暴露了其局限性。其次，特朗普并未像以往 美国总统那样以民主或人权为由，而是直言要夺取委内瑞拉的石油，并确立美国在西半球的 主导地位。第三，这一事件发生在旧有国际秩序——联合国决议、国际法和普世价值观—— 加速瓦解之际。当前上演的这场大戏，将深刻影响未来世界秩序的走向。 先看"如何"发生。除美军外，没有任何其他国家的军队能 ...

Core Viewpoint - The military operation "Absolute Resolve" led by the U.S. against Venezuela is characterized as a significant display of power by President Trump, showcasing the overwhelming military superiority of the U.S. over Venezuela, which is described as a "one-sided dimensional strike" [2][5]. Military Operation Overview - The operation was a culmination of the "Southern Spear" initiative, which lasted over four months and involved extensive reconnaissance and testing of Venezuela's military defenses [3]. - The core challenge of the operation was locating the high-value target, Venezuelan President Maduro, who was well-guarded and mobile, necessitating a combination of human and technical intelligence to track his movements [4]. Execution of the Operation - The "Absolute Resolve" operation involved a multi-domain approach, starting with air campaigns, supported by special operations and amphibious landings [8]. - Key assets included F-22 and F-35A stealth fighters, B-1B bombers, and specialized helicopters from the U.S. Army's 160th Special Operations Aviation Regiment, which executed low-altitude night operations to infiltrate Venezuela [9][12]. Strategic Implications - The operation reflects a strategic shift in U.S. foreign policy, emphasizing the Western Hemisphere as a core interest and the use of military force to expand influence in Latin America [19]. - Trump's approach combines military action with domestic law enforcement tactics, indicating a low threshold for military engagement without formal congressional approval [20]. Political Context - The military action is seen as part of Trump's broader strategy to consolidate power domestically and assert U.S. dominance internationally, particularly in the context of countering Chinese and Russian influence in Latin America [22].

"我认为他们很软弱。"特朗普表示，"我认为他们不知道该怎么办。""欧洲不知道该怎么办。" 同样，在这份长达3页的文件中，特朗普指责欧盟和欧洲国家纵容移民激增、出生率下降以及所谓的民 主自由遭到侵蚀，导致"文明消亡"的风险增加。 据环球网报道，近日，美国总统特朗普在接受采访时，抨击欧盟是一个由"软弱"之人主导的"正在衰 败"的国家集团，他指责美国的这些传统盟友国家未能控制移民、结束俄乌冲突，并表示自己将支持与 其自身愿景相一致的欧洲政界人士。 据称，特朗普此次对欧洲政治领导层的猛烈抨击，是他迄今为止对这些西方国家发出的最严厉批评。 特朗普的这番言论不出意料地引发强烈反响，同时也引来欧洲一众政客、前政客的无情批评，最终让自 己成了"吐槽大会"主角。 一而再、再而三地贬损欧洲及其领导人 当地时间12月10日，特朗普接受了网络政治专业杂志《POLITICO》的专访。 在专访中，特朗普痛斥欧洲国家"衰落"，理由是"未能控制移民，也未能采取果断行动结束俄乌战争"， 更放任乌克兰"战斗到最后一刻"，指责欧洲领导人"只会空谈，却不付诸行动。战争就这样没完没了地 持续着"，声称"意识形态分歧"正威胁到华盛顿与欧洲的联盟关系。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The cryptocurrency market experienced a significant rebound, with Bitcoin rising over 4% and Ethereum over 3%, driven by oversold conditions and expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [1][2][3] Market Performance - As of November 27, Bitcoin's price reached $91,420, marking a cumulative increase of over 13% from its low of $80,843 on November 21 [2] - The total liquidation amount in the cryptocurrency market reached $301 million (approximately 2.1 billion RMB), with over 100,000 traders liquidated within 24 hours [1] Factors Driving the Rebound - The rebound is attributed to two main factors: 1. Oversold conditions in the cryptocurrency market, particularly for Bitcoin, which had previously peaked at over $126,000 before dropping to around $80,000 [3] 2. Rising expectations for a Federal Reserve interest rate cut, with an 84.9% probability of a 25 basis point cut in December, boosting investor sentiment [3][4] Federal Reserve Leadership Speculation - Kevin Hassett, the Director of the National Economic Council, is considered the leading candidate for the next Federal Reserve Chair, which could lead to a more dovish monetary policy [4] - Hassett has indicated a willingness to implement immediate rate cuts if appointed, aligning with President Trump's economic strategies [4] Impact of Political Climate on Cryptocurrency - The decline in Bitcoin's price is linked to President Trump's decreasing approval ratings, which have fallen to 38%, the lowest since his second term began [8] - Nobel laureate Paul Krugman suggests that Trump's waning influence negatively affects Bitcoin prices, as the cryptocurrency has become associated with "Trumpism" [7][9][10] Historical Context of "Trump Trade" - The "Trump trade" refers to the surge in cryptocurrency prices following Trump's election, driven by expectations of favorable policies for digital assets [10] - Despite initial support for cryptocurrencies, the market has faced volatility due to trade wars and other economic factors during Trump's presidency [10]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses a significant currency swap agreement worth $20 billion between the United States and Argentina, aimed at stabilizing Argentina's economy and supporting President Milei ahead of the upcoming elections [5][8]. Group 1: Currency Swap Agreement - The agreement is referred to as a "currency swap," but many U.S. media outlets describe it as "emergency credit," essentially a loan from the U.S. Treasury to the Milei government [6][8]. - The currency swap allows for a controlled exchange, where funds can be accessed gradually rather than in a lump sum [7]. - This marks the first large-scale U.S. financial assistance to a foreign government in economic distress since the $20 billion loan to Mexico in 1995 [8]. Group 2: Argentina's Foreign Exchange Reserves - Argentina's reported foreign exchange reserves stand at $33 billion, but much of this is not readily available for market support [13]. - Of the $33 billion, $13 billion is in RMB for trade with China, and $12 billion is theoretical reserves from commercial banks, which could lead to a loss of confidence if misused [14]. - After accounting for these factors, Argentina's actual foreign reserves are only a few billion dollars, raising concerns about its fiscal health [15]. Group 3: Implications for China - The U.S. support for Argentina indirectly benefits China, as it is Argentina's largest trading partner and investor, with a currency swap agreement worth 130 billion RMB [22]. - The U.S. Treasury's commitment to stabilize the peso market is seen as a way to mitigate risks for Chinese investments in Argentina [22]. Group 4: Political Context - The article highlights the unusual nature of U.S. support for Argentina, a country not traditionally aligned with U.S. interests, especially under a "America First" administration [24]. - The support for Milei is viewed as part of a broader strategy to counter leftist movements in Latin America, with the success of his reforms being crucial for U.S. interests [25][26].