李若熙 17611619787，lirx@avicsec.com 行情回顾 （2.07-2.21） 申万农林牧渔行业（-2.10%），申万行业排名（28/31）； 炒股就看金麒麟分析师研报，权威，专业，及时，全面，助您挖掘潜力主题机会！ （来源：中航证券研究） 如您需要报告全文，可联系研究所销售团队： 陈艺丹 18611188969，chenyd@avicsec.com 李裕淇 18674857775，liyuq@avicsec.com 李友琳 18665808487，liyoul@avicsec.com 交易上，关注产能去化趋势中的板块机会。一是生猪周期轮转不止，配合"反内卷"政策引导，产能有望合理调减，猪价预期和生猪板块走势有望演绎。二 是生猪行业优势企业价值属性增强。长期稳态下生猪养殖产业整体将保持一定的利润水平，而行业具备养殖管理和成本优势的企业望保持较好盈利能力。 行业前期产能扩张的财务压力释放，产业优质企业的自由现金流大幅改善，支撑相关生猪企业估值。三是生猪行业优势企业红利属性增强。优质养殖企业 重视并不断提升股东回报，生猪板块优质标的的长期红利属性和配置价值有望愈加显著。四是生猪头部企业推进全球 ...

2026年02月02日，生物股份披露接待调研公告，公司于01月30日接待睿远基金、中信证券、天风证券、 国泰海通证券、招商证券、国投证券等28家机构调研。 生物股份（600201）最新股价为16.28元，较前一交易日收盘价下跌1.77元，跌幅为9.81%，总市值 180.99亿元。从行业市盈率来看，生物股份所处的农药兽药行业滚动市盈率平均47.77倍，行业中值 27.11倍，生物股份179.63倍排名第32位。 调研情况显示，生物股份非洲猪瘟疫苗临床试验进展顺利，于2025年7月取得临床批件，10月启动田间 试验，2026年1月23日完成首次攻毒试验并符合阶段性评价要求，计划4月上旬启动第二轮攻毒试验，6 月完成全部临床试验数据统计与分析。 公司非洲猪瘟疫苗具备显著竞争优势，包括高安全性和高保护性，采用保守性靶点设计对重组毒株、基 因二型毒株均具备较高交叉保护率，已包含完整的妊娠动物安全性实验数据；技术优势方面，公司拥有 大动物P3实验室，已建成专用GMP生产车间并通过验收，在产业化方面具备先发优势；时间壁垒明 显，是率先取得临床批件并完成首次攻毒试验的企业，已完成万头猪只大规模免疫实验。 参与此次调研的睿远 ...

Livestock Farming - In the first half of 2026, pig prices are expected to remain low, leading to continued low profits in the industry [4] - The pig farming sector is undergoing capacity adjustments driven by policies and cycles, with ongoing capacity reduction [4] - Debt levels are decreasing, and costs are declining, making it important to focus on cost improvements and growth-oriented pig farming enterprises [4] Poultry Farming - The white chicken supply chain is experiencing deep price declines, and it will take time for supply and demand to return to balance [5] - Yellow chicken prices may see slight recovery, with attention on the promotion of native chicken varieties boosting yellow chicken consumption [5] Beef Farming - The beef farming cycle is long, and the fragmented supply side is significantly influenced by smallholder behaviors [6] - Low prices from 2022 to 2024 are driving capacity reduction, with expected declines in slaughter volumes from 2025, leading to sustained price increases [6] Post-Farming Cycle - Feed sales are anticipated to grow, with an increase in industry concentration among leading companies [7] - In 2026, the livestock inventory is expected to remain high, with industry prosperity continuing upward, particularly in the first half of the year [7] - Demand for animal health products may be pressured by low farming profits, with a focus on new products like African swine fever vaccines and pet vaccines [7] Crop Farming - Grain prices are expected to stabilize and trend upward, emphasizing the importance of food security [8] - The seed industry is seeing revitalization and innovation in varieties [8] - Opportunities in specialty crops such as blueberries and mushrooms are noteworthy [8] - The demand for plant extraction products is growing due to the trend towards natural health [8] Pet Industry - The pet market is thriving, with strong consumer spending and an increasing willingness to pay for pet-related products [9] - By 2025, the industry may face challenges in scaling revenue due to competition, leading to increased marketing expenditures that could impact short-term profit margins [9] - Companies with comprehensive capabilities in production, sales, and research are rare and may gain competitive advantages, with a focus on the growth of domestic brands and price increases [9]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery industry [1] Core Insights - The swine industry is entering an accelerated phase of capacity reduction, with a focus on positioning at the bottom of the market. Regulatory measures are being reinforced to stabilize pig prices, which are expected to face downward pressure in the short term due to increased market supply [3][15] - The poultry sector shows signs of fundamental improvement, with a focus on the white feather chicken breeding segment and potential price recovery in the future [4][28] - The animal health sector is closely monitoring the clinical trial progress of African swine fever vaccines, which could enhance market conditions for leading companies in the sector [5][38] - The pet industry continues to experience rapid growth, with domestic brands gaining strength and improving profitability [8][60] Summary by Sections Swine Industry - The average price of live pigs is reported at 11.53 CNY/kg, with a slight weekly increase. The number of breeding sows has decreased by 1.1% month-on-month [14][15] - Key investment recommendations include leading companies such as Muyuan Foods and Wens Foodstuffs, with additional attention on Dekang Agriculture and Shennong Group [3][15] Poultry Industry - The white feather chicken breeding segment has seen a total of 107.21 thousand sets updated from January to October 2025, with a balanced import and self-breeding ratio [4][28] - Recommended companies in this sector include San Nong Development and Lihua Shares [4][28] Animal Health - The animal health industry has faced losses for over three months, with expectations of continued low pig prices. The clinical trials for the African swine fever vaccine are a critical step towards commercialization [5][38] - Companies to watch include BioStock, Kexin Biological, and Ruipu Biological [5][38] Planting Industry - Grain prices are fluctuating, with corn prices at 2244 CNY/ton and wheat prices at 2515 CNY/ton. The pig-to-grain ratio is reported at 5.03 [44][48] - Investment suggestions focus on companies with strong positions in genetically modified seeds, such as Suqian Agricultural Development and Longping High-Tech [6][48] Feed Industry - Feed prices are experiencing fluctuations, with pig feed priced at 3.33 CNY/kg and chicken feed at 3.45 CNY/kg. The industry is expected to see increased concentration [49][50] - Recommended companies include Haida Group and He Feng Shares [49][50] Pet Industry - The pet market is projected to reach 300.2 billion CNY in 2024, with a year-on-year growth of 7.5%. The number of pet dogs and cats is also on the rise [59][60] - Recommended companies in the pet food sector include Guibao Pet, Zhongchong Shares, and Petty Shares [59][60]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery industry [1] Core Viewpoints - The swine industry is entering an accelerated phase of capacity reduction, presenting opportunities for investment at the bottom of the market [3][4] - The poultry sector's fundamentals are expected to improve, with a focus on marginal changes in the cycle [4][5] - The animal health sector is closely monitoring the progress of African swine fever vaccine clinical trials, which could enhance the industry's competitive landscape [6][7] - The pet economy is thriving, with domestic brands rapidly emerging and improving profitability [9][10] Summary by Sections Swine Industry - The average price of live pigs in November was 11.69 yuan/kg, with a month-on-month change of 0 yuan/kg [15] - The number of breeding sows as of the end of October was 39.9 million, a decrease of 1.1% month-on-month and 2.1% year-on-year [15][16] - Investment suggestions include leading companies such as Muyuan Foods and Wens Foodstuffs, with a focus on low-cost performance and dividend increases [16] Poultry Industry - The price of white feather broiler parent stock chicks was 41 yuan/set, down 6 yuan from the previous week [31] - The poultry sector is seeing a gradual recovery, with a recommendation for companies like Shennong Development and Lihua Stock [32] Animal Health - The profitability of self-breeding pigs has been negative for over two months, impacting the animal health sector [40] - Companies like Bio-Pharmaceuticals and Keqian Bio are recommended due to their strong business layouts and customer resources [6][40] Planting Industry - The price of corn was 2229 yuan/ton, with a month-on-month increase of 0.5% and a year-on-year increase of 8% [45] - Companies with early reserves in genetically modified seeds are recommended, including Suqian Agricultural Development and Longping High-Tech [50] Feed Industry - The price of feed for fattening pigs was 3.32 yuan/kg, with a month-on-month decrease of 20 yuan/ton [51] - The feed industry is expected to see increased concentration, with recommendations for Haida Group and He Feng Stock [52] Pet Industry - The pet consumption market in urban China is projected to reach 300.2 billion yuan in 2024, with a year-on-year growth of 7.5% [58] - Recommended companies in the pet food sector include Guibao Pet and Zhongchong Stock, with a focus on the pet medical sector as well [59]

Core Points - AVAC Vietnam Joint Stock Company has exported 340,000 doses of African swine fever vaccine to the Philippines on September 8 [1] - To date, Vietnam has exported a total of 460,000 doses of African swine fever vaccine to the Philippines in two batches [1]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Insights - The report highlights that a new round of price increases for pigs may gradually begin, with the African swine fever vaccine opening growth opportunities for the animal health sector [4][5] - The report emphasizes that the investment logic for live pigs is marginally improving, supported by both fundamental and policy factors, with recommendations for specific companies [5][31] Summary by Sections Weekly Observation - As of August 15, 2025, the national average price of live pigs is 13.73 CNY/kg, with a week-on-week increase of 0.06 CNY/kg but a year-on-year decrease of 7.44% [4][13] - The price premium for 150kg fat pigs over 120kg standard pigs is 0.28 CNY/kg, indicating a tightening supply [4][13] Weekly Market Performance (August 11-15) - The agricultural sector underperformed the market by 1.84 percentage points, with the agricultural index down 0.14% while the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 1.70% [6][35] - Key stocks that led the gains include COFCO Sugar (+41.04%), Shunli Biological (+13.97%), and Xiaoming Co. (+8.86%) [6][35] Price Tracking (August 11-15) - The average price of live pigs on August 15 is 13.76 CNY/kg, a slight increase from the previous week [6][46] - The average price of piglets is 28.87 CNY/kg, showing a decrease of 5.03% from the previous week [6][46] - The average price of white feathered chickens is 7.20 CNY/kg, with a week-on-week increase of 0.84% [6][51] Key News (August 11-15) - The central government allocated 1.146 billion CNY for agricultural disaster relief, supporting major grain-producing provinces [6][41]

Investment Rating - The industry is rated as "Overweight," indicating that the growth level of the industry is expected to exceed that of the CSI 300 index in the next six months [75]. Core Insights - The animal health industry is anticipated to recover alongside improvements in the breeding sector, driven by the approval of clinical trials for African swine fever vaccines, which could significantly expand the market [7][10]. - The breeding industry has shown mixed performance, with some companies reporting increased sales and profits, while others face challenges due to fluctuating prices and weights of livestock [8][9]. - The global grain supply and demand dynamics are being affected by geopolitical factors, with adjustments in production forecasts for wheat, rice, corn, and soybeans for the 2025/26 season [11][12][13][14]. Summary by Sections Animal Health Industry - The approval of clinical trials for African swine fever vaccines is a significant development, with a potential market size of 14.5 billion expected by 2027 [23]. - Several animal health companies have forecasted substantial profit growth for the first half of 2025, with increases ranging from 40% to 70% year-on-year [7]. Breeding Industry - In June, the total sales of pigs from 12 companies reached 7.4472 million heads, a month-on-month decrease of 3.21%, while the average price per kilogram was 14.32 yuan, down 1.92% [8]. - The average weight of pigs sold decreased to 101.8 kg, a drop of 7.84% month-on-month, indicating challenges in the breeding sector [8]. Grain Supply and Demand - The global wheat supply is projected to decrease by 400,000 tons to 107.21 million tons for the 2025/26 season, while consumption is expected to rise by 800,000 tons to 81.06 million tons [11]. - The rice supply remains stable, but consumption is forecasted to reach a record 54.16 million tons, driven by increased demand from China [12]. - The corn market is seeing increased production in Canada and Mexico, while global corn stocks are expected to decrease by 3.2 million tons to 27.21 million tons [13]. - The soybean market is projected to see an increase in supply and crushing, with ending stocks expected to rise by 800,000 tons to 12.61 million tons [14]. Seed Industry - The revitalization of the seed industry is supported by government policies aimed at enhancing crop yields and promoting the commercialization of biotechnology [15]. - Companies with advantages in biotechnology and seed varieties are expected to benefit from ongoing industry expansion [15]. Pet Industry - The domestic pet food market is projected to grow significantly, with compound annual growth rates of 17% for pet staples and 25% for pet snacks expected by 2026 [16]. - Leading domestic pet food companies are increasingly focusing on brand strategies and global expansion to enhance their market presence [16].

Core Viewpoint - The city of Hohhot is striving to become the leading hub for veterinary vaccine research and production in China, driven by significant technological breakthroughs and supportive policies in the biopharmaceutical industry [1][3][5] Group 1: Technological Breakthroughs - Jin Yu Bao Ling Biopharmaceutical Co., Ltd. launched the "Jin Niu Zhi" vaccine, marking a major technological advancement in China's biopharmaceutical sector [1] - The company has also established an intelligent manufacturing line capable of producing 8 million doses of pet vaccines annually, which has passed GMP static acceptance [1] - The establishment of the Inner Mongolia Animal Vaccine Technology Innovation Center aims to enhance vaccine research and development, focusing on major animal diseases [2][3] Group 2: Industry Growth and Collaboration - Hohhot has seen its biopharmaceutical industry output grow from 13.11 billion yuan in 2020 to 20.25 billion yuan in 2024, with 117 research institutions and 602 drug registration approvals [4] - The city has actively collaborated with prestigious institutions like the Chinese Academy of Sciences and Tsinghua University to accelerate vaccine development [4] - The introduction of high-value product projects by local companies aims to enhance the quality and innovation of animal serum and vaccine production [2][4] Group 3: Policy Support and Investment - Hohhot has implemented various policies to support the high-quality development of the biopharmaceutical industry, including financial incentives totaling 14 million yuan for innovation platforms and vaccine projects [3] - The city is positioning itself as a national leader in veterinary vaccine production, with significant investments in research and development infrastructure [5] - The establishment of the National Swine Technology Innovation Center in Inner Mongolia signifies the region's commitment to becoming a key player in the animal vaccine industry [4]