出品/壹览商业 作者/蒙嘉怡 编辑/薛向 头图/截自品牌官网 港交所迎来了开年最受瞩目的消费IPO。 1月28日，湖南鸣鸣很忙商业连锁股份有限公司（以下简称鸣鸣很忙）挂牌上市，成为港股"量贩零食第一股"，获得全球资本疯抢。香港公开发售超额认购 近1900倍，国际配售超额44倍，创下近年港股消费类IPO配售热度新高，更吸引了腾讯、淡马锡、贝莱德、富达等8家国际顶级机构作为基石投资者。 热烈的申购与高涨的股价，反映了资本市场对其的高度认可。当喧嚣逐渐平复，市场讨论的焦点逐步从门店数量，转向一个更本质的问题：在低价策略下， 什么才是支撑鸣鸣很忙实现健康盈利、持续扩张的真实能力？ 财报展现的韧性 企业的真实健康状况，最终会体现在财务数据上。分析鸣鸣很忙近年来的业绩，可以明确的是，其不仅规模迅猛膨胀，盈利质量也在同步优化。 从营收与净利润看，2022年至2024年，鸣鸣很忙营收从42.86亿元跃升至393.44亿元；同期经调整净利润从0.81亿元增长至9.13亿元，利润增速持续高于营收 增速。进入2025年，这一趋势更为显著，前9个月经调整净利润已达18.10亿元，同比增长240.86%，远超75.21%的营收增幅。这 ...

Group 1 - The event held on January 24 in Beijing allowed representatives and committee members to engage with various government departments, showcasing a blend of traditional and innovative products [1] - The Beijing Municipal Bureau of Commerce presented promotional materials and showcased cross-border products from time-honored brands, emphasizing convenience and gift attributes for the upcoming New Year [1] - The Bureau highlighted specific products such as the "Da Da Cake" from Daoxiangcun, which symbolizes good fortune, and the collaboration between Liubiju and Yanjinpuzi to create a new product, reflecting the trend of cross-industry integration [1] Group 2 - The Beijing Municipal Bureau of Radio and Television is promoting high-quality performances to reach grassroots levels, integrating AI and audiovisual technology to create a new cultural service model [3] - The bureau displayed guides for filming and food photography in Beijing, aimed at supporting film and television enterprises [3] - New derivative products based on popular shows, such as character figurines and themed models, are attracting younger consumers and driving spending [3] Group 3 - The Beijing Municipal Market Supervision Bureau introduced bilingual registration guides for foreign investors, aimed at improving efficiency in the registration process [4] - The Beijing Municipal Bureau of Culture and Tourism presented various travel guides and maps, including a new "Red Tourism Map" to encourage exploration of the city [4] - The bureau also showcased playful cultural products, such as the "Fat Dada" toy, which serves as an overseas promotional ambassador [4] Group 4 - The Beijing Ethnic and Religious Affairs Commission utilized cultural products and historical compilations to promote the concept of a shared Chinese national community [5] - A manual titled "Historical Narratives of the Community" was introduced, detailing the interactions among various ethnic groups in Beijing's history [5] - The commission's products, including beautifully designed notebooks and bookmarks, aim to resonate with younger audiences and promote cultural unity [5]

Core Insights - The company, Mingming Hen Mang, is set to go public on January 28, having integrated its two brands, "Zhao Yiming Snacks" and "Snacks Hen Mang," to become the largest chain retailer of snack food and beverages in China, with over 21,000 stores across 28 provinces [1] - The growth strategy of Mingming Hen Mang transcends mere scale, focusing on an innovative ecosystem built around supply chain, consumer scenarios, and partnerships, which supports its leading industry position and establishes a foundation for sustainable and resilient profitability [1] Financial Performance - From 2022 to 2024, the company's revenue surged from 4.286 billion to 39.344 billion yuan, achieving an 860% growth and a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 203% [2] - Adjusted net profit increased from 82 million to 913 million yuan, expanding over tenfold, demonstrating strong profit conversion capabilities [2] - In the first three quarters of 2025, the company reported revenue of 46.372 billion yuan and a GMV of 66.1 billion yuan, reflecting year-on-year growth of 75.2% and 74.5%, respectively, with adjusted net profit soaring by 241% [3] Market Position and Expansion - According to a report by Frost & Sullivan, Mingming Hen Mang ranks first among Chinese chain retailers in terms of GMV for snack food and beverages, and fourth in the overall food and beverage category [2] - The company has a high penetration rate in lower-tier markets, with 59% of its 19,517 stores located in county towns and rural areas, achieving a 66% market penetration rate [4][5] - The retail market for snack food and beverages in China continues to grow, with the share of lower-tier markets in total GMV rising from 58.8% to 61.7% over the past five years, expected to reach 64.7% by 2029 [4] Supply Chain Efficiency - The company maintains a stable profit margin, with adjusted net profit margins around 2% from 2022 to 2024, driven by cost control through a large store network and efficient supply chain [6] - Future profit growth is anticipated to stem from enhanced supply chain efficiency, with investments in cold chain logistics and optimized warehousing and distribution systems [6][7] Ecosystem Development - Mingming Hen Mang is building a comprehensive ecosystem that includes supply chain, consumer scenarios, and partnership networks, which opens up broader growth opportunities [8] - The company has developed a customized product development capability, with approximately 34% of its product SKUs being vendor-customized, enhancing product competitiveness and supply chain stability [8] - The company is also focusing on community consumption scenarios and has shifted its franchise model to eliminate franchise fees, promoting a sustainable growth model for both the company and its franchisees [9]

Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the food and beverage industry is "Outperform the Market" [1] Core Insights - The dairy sector has shown strong stock performance due to favorable policies, expectations of a cyclical turning point, seasonal demand release, and capital inflow. The National Healthcare Security Administration aims for "no out-of-pocket" costs for childbirth by 2026, alongside local childcare subsidies, boosting long-term demand for maternal and infant dairy products. The Ministry of Commerce and other departments have issued policies to enhance consumption [4][14] - After previous capacity clearance, the acceleration of dairy cow inventory reduction has stabilized raw milk prices, with expectations of a supply-demand turning point in 2026, leading to increased milk prices. Dairy companies are transitioning towards "nutrition and health," with growing demand for functional dairy products and the upcoming launch of deep processing capacities, opening new growth opportunities [4][14] - As the Spring Festival approaches, demand for dairy products is expected to surge due to family reunions and gift purchases, with rising health consciousness driving sales of organic and functional dairy products [4][14] Summary by Sections Industry Performance - The food and beverage sector index (801120.SL) increased by 1.05% this week, ranking 13th among 30 sectors, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 1.33 percentage points. The current dynamic PE ratio for the industry is 21.75 [19] - Among the 10 sub-sectors, only beer and liquor saw declines, while the highest gain was in baked goods (+8.0%). A total of 107 stocks in the sector rose, with the top five performers being Huanlejia (+44.42%), Zhuangyuan Pasture (+35.96%), Huangshi Group (+21.16%), Junyao Health (+17.02%), and Sunshine Dairy (+14.72%) [19] Company Announcements - Wuliangye held its 12.18 conference, focusing on systematic construction to address market uncertainties. The company is implementing tailored strategies for different partners and is optimistic about sales during the 2026 Spring Festival due to more scientific strategies [5][15] - Mixue Ice Cream opened its first store in North America in Hollywood, Los Angeles, emphasizing a localized and cost-effective strategy. The store offers a wide range of sweetness levels to cater to local preferences, successfully generating social buzz and brand recognition [6][16] - Yanjinpuzi announced a 2025 stock incentive plan, with performance targets set for net profits from 2026 to 2028, aiming for significant growth. The company plans to refocus on supermarkets and leverage its flagship products for growth [7][17][18]

Core Viewpoint - The company reported a slight increase in revenue for Q1-Q3 2025, but a significant decline in net profit, indicating challenges in profitability despite revenue growth [4][6]. Group 1: Financial Performance - For Q1-Q3 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 1.808 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.05%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 173 million yuan, a decrease of 19.51% [4]. - In Q3 2025 alone, the company recorded a revenue of 685 million yuan, up 6.55% year-on-year, but the net profit dropped by 14.77% to 61 million yuan [4]. - The gross profit margin for Q1-Q3 and Q3 2025 was 29.25% and 28.93% respectively, with a year-on-year decline of 1.14 percentage points for Q3 [6]. Group 2: Product and Channel Strategy - The company improved its revenue growth in Q3 2025 compared to Q2 2025, driven by fish products and snack wholesale channels [5]. - New product development accelerated, with the launch of items like sesame sauce beef tripe and marinated tofu, aiming to leverage market opportunities [5]. - The company is focusing on enhancing channel construction and deepening cooperation with snack wholesale channels, which has led to a steady increase in sales [5]. Group 3: Cost Management and Profitability - The company emphasized cost efficiency, with a slight increase in the sales expense ratio to 13.82% in Q3 2025, reflecting increased promotional spending [6]. - The net profit margin for Q1-Q3 and Q3 2025 was 9.56% and 8.89% respectively, showing a year-on-year decline of 2.22 percentage points for Q3, but an improvement compared to Q2 2025 [6][7]. - The stability of fish product costs in the new procurement season is expected to support profitability, despite high prices for konjac raw materials [7].

Overview of the Snack Food Sector - The A-share snack food sector has 23 companies, with Wancheng Group leading at a weight of 15.5% and a total market value of 24.8 billion [1][2] - The top 20 companies in the snack food sector have a combined market value of approximately 150 billion, significantly lower than the liquor sector, where Kweichow Moutai alone exceeds 2 trillion [2] Industry Characteristics - Snack foods are inherently less addictive compared to alcoholic beverages, and brands are still in the early stages of consumer recognition [3][5] - The snack food industry is characterized by high dependence on distribution channels, with traditional supermarkets shrinking at an annual rate of 8% [6][9] - The snack food sector has a market size exceeding 1 trillion, but the top ten companies only hold about 20% market share, much lower than the liquor and dairy sectors [7] Market Challenges - The snack food index has underperformed the overall consumer index from 2021 to 2024 due to three main pressures: shrinking traditional retail channels, low margins in bulk sales, and a price war leading to reduced profits [9][13] - The average price drop in the snack food industry reached 12% in 2023, with a corresponding 5% increase in sales volume, resulting in a profit squeeze [13] - Online price transparency has intensified competition, with leading companies experiencing a decline in online gross margins by 8-10 percentage points [13] Company Types and Performance - Domestic snack companies can be categorized into channel-based and product-based companies, with the former relying heavily on distribution channels and the latter focusing on product differentiation [14][16] - Product-based companies like Salted Fish and Jin Zai Food have shown faster growth, while channel-based companies like Liangpin Shop and Lai Yi Fen have faced significant declines [17] Case Studies - Three squirrels have seen a revenue rebound starting in Q4 2023, with Douyin channel revenue reaching 2.188 billion in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 81.7% [21] - However, they face challenges such as high traffic costs and low offline distribution margins, with a gross margin of only 15-18% [24] - Salted Fish's "Big Demon King" single product achieved over 100 million in monthly sales in March 2025, indicating successful product differentiation [42] Future Outlook - Channel-based companies should focus on cost-effective branding, while product-based companies should aim for super single products in niche categories [49] - The competition will increasingly involve both comprehensive snack brands and channel brands, necessitating a strong brand identity to withstand competition from private label products [49]

Core Viewpoint - The company reported a slight increase in revenue for the first three quarters of 2025, but a significant decline in net profit, indicating challenges in profitability despite revenue growth [1][2]. Financial Performance - For Q1-Q3 2025, the company achieved revenue of 1.808 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.05%, while net profit attributable to shareholders was 173 million yuan, a decrease of 19.51% [1]. - In Q3 2025 alone, revenue reached 685 million yuan, up 6.55% year-on-year, but net profit fell to 61 million yuan, down 14.77% [1]. Product and Channel Strategy - The company accelerated new product launches and strengthened channel development, with significant contributions from fish products and snack wholesale channels [2]. - New products such as sesame sauce tripe and marinated tofu were introduced, aiming to leverage market opportunities and enhance product distribution speed [2]. - The company is focusing on improving its presence in the snack wholesale channel and has seen steady growth in overseas markets, although e-commerce channels are currently undergoing adjustments due to declining traffic [2]. Cost and Profitability Analysis - The gross margin for Q1-Q3 2025 was 29.25%, slightly decreasing to 28.93% in Q3, primarily due to rising raw material costs [3]. - The company maintained a sales expense ratio of 13.81% for Q1-Q3 2025, with a slight increase in Q3, reflecting investments in brand building and channel development [3]. - The net profit margin for Q1-Q3 2025 was 9.56%, decreasing to 8.89% in Q3, but showing improvement compared to Q2 due to enhanced efficiency in expense usage and scale effects [3]. Earnings Forecast and Valuation - The company maintains its profit forecasts for 2025-2027, with expected earnings per share (EPS) of 0.56, 0.67, and 0.80 yuan respectively, corresponding to price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios of 21, 18, and 15 times [4]. - The company's product strategy is clear, and it is actively expanding through multiple channels, maintaining a "buy" rating [4].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [4][6]. Core Insights - The company achieved a revenue of 1.808 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 2.05%. However, the net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 19.51% to 173 million yuan [1]. - In Q3 2025, the company reported a revenue of 685 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6.55%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 61 million yuan, down 14.77% [1][2]. - The company is accelerating new product launches and strengthening channel construction, with significant improvements in revenue growth driven by fish products and snack wholesale channels [2]. - The gross profit margin for the first three quarters of 2025 was 29.25%, with a slight decrease in Q3 to 28.93% due to rising raw material costs [3]. - The company is focusing on improving cost efficiency, with a net profit margin of 9.56% for the first three quarters of 2025, showing a sequential improvement compared to Q2 [3]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For Q1-Q3 2025, the company reported a revenue of 1.808 billion yuan and a net profit of 173 million yuan, with a decrease in net profit margin to 8.89% in Q3 [1][3]. - The company’s revenue growth rate for 2025 is projected at 1.94%, with a net profit forecast of 254 million yuan, reflecting a decline of 12.77% [5]. Product and Market Strategy - The company is enhancing its product lineup with new offerings such as sesame sauce tripe and marinated tofu, aiming to leverage market trends and improve distribution speed [2]. - The company is also expanding its presence in overseas markets and adjusting its e-commerce strategy in response to declining traffic [2]. Cost and Profitability - The gross profit margin is under pressure due to increased costs of raw materials, particularly for fish and konjac products, but the company expects stable costs in the upcoming procurement season [3]. - The report indicates a focus on improving the efficiency of expense utilization, with a sales expense ratio of 13.81% for Q1-Q3 2025 [3]. Valuation and Forecast - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is estimated at 0.56 yuan, with corresponding price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios of 21, 18, and 15 for 2025-2027 [4][5]. - The company’s strategy is clear, with active multi-channel expansion, supporting the "Buy" rating [4].

Core Viewpoint - Salted Fish Shop and Liu Bi Ju have entered a ten-year strategic partnership to promote traditional Chinese food culture through the development of a new product line centered around sesame sauce konjac products [1][2]. Group 1: Strategic Partnership - The strategic cooperation agreement will be effective from October 16, 2025, and will last for ten years, focusing on the co-creation of sesame sauce konjac products [1]. - The collaboration aims to enhance both companies' market influence and value by combining traditional craftsmanship with innovative flavors [1]. Group 2: Product Development and Market Performance - Salted Fish Shop has launched its first strategic sub-brand "Da Mo Wang," which achieved over 1 billion yuan in sales within a year, becoming the company's top-selling product [2]. - The "Da Mo Wang" sesame sauce konjac has shown strong performance across various sales channels, including membership, convenience stores, and online platforms, contributing to a significant increase in sales efficiency for distributors [2]. - In the first half of 2025, the leisure konjac product segment generated revenue of 791 million yuan, marking a year-on-year growth of 155.10% and accounting for 26.90% of the company's total revenue [2]. Group 3: Market Expansion and Innovation - The "Da Mo Wang" sesame sauce konjac has successfully entered mainstream markets in North America and Southeast Asia, serving as a new model for Chinese flavors going global [3]. - The company is expanding its product matrix around the core flavor of sesame sauce, developing various derivative products such as garlic sesame sauce konjac and sesame sauce spicy tripe [3].

Summary of Jin Zai Food's Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: Jin Zai Food - **Industry**: Food Production, specifically focusing on snacks and processed food products Key Points and Arguments Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, Jin Zai Food reported revenue of **1.124 billion** yuan, a slight decrease of **0.5%** year-on-year, and a net profit of **112 million** yuan, down **21.86%** year-on-year, due to industry demand fluctuations, seasonal shifts, and rising raw material costs [3][4][5] - Direct sales channels grew by over **29%**, and overseas revenue increased by **40%**, indicating strong performance in these areas despite overall revenue challenges [2][3] Product Development and R&D - The company invested **25.8 million** yuan in R&D in the first half of 2025, an increase of approximately **18%** year-on-year, launching new products such as sesame-flavored tripe and various tofu products [2][4] - The company is focusing on health-oriented product upgrades, including a sodium reduction process to meet food safety standards, which has led to some cost increases [10][11][16] Brand Promotion and Marketing - Jin Zai Food increased brand promotion efforts, including sponsorship of popular shows like "New Rap" and other marketing activities, which slightly raised brand expenses [2][5] - The company declared a cash dividend of **1 yuan** per **10 shares**, totaling **44.72 million** yuan, enhancing investor confidence [2][5] Channel Performance - Retail channels showed strong growth, with an increase of over **50%** in the first half of 2025, while international trade markets also grew by **40%** [2][6] - Online channels experienced a slight decline, primarily due to a pullback in community group buying, although shelf e-commerce remained stable [3][6] - The company faced challenges in traditional distribution channels due to competition from snack channels and delays in membership supermarket entry plans [6][8] Strategic Adjustments - Jin Zai Food is adjusting its strategy for konjac products, launching new flavors to enhance consumer feedback and market positioning [7][9][20] - The company is focusing on channel construction and efficiency improvements, with a strategic shift towards existing channel development rather than solely brand upgrades [22][23] Competitive Landscape - The quail egg segment faces intense price competition, particularly from industry giants offering lower-priced products, impacting overall category growth [12][14] - Despite challenges, the company remains optimistic about the long-term potential of quail eggs as a healthy snack option [15][33] Cost Structure and Management - Raw material costs remained stable, with slight increases in manufacturing and transportation costs by approximately **10%** due to scale effects and changes in channel structure [25][26] - The company is optimizing its organizational structure to improve operational efficiency and manage rising employee compensation costs [17][21] Future Outlook - Jin Zai Food anticipates a return to positive sales growth in the second half of 2025, driven by strategic adjustments and channel development [34] - The company is actively exploring the emerging field of instant retail, aiming to capture market share and adapt to changing consumer purchasing habits [30][35] Additional Important Insights - The company is committed to upgrading all products to antibiotic-free versions, which is expected to benefit consumer health without significant cost pressures [18][16] - Jin Zai Food's strategic focus on konjac products is seen as a key area for future growth, with plans to expand market share and improve product offerings [19][20]