免责声明：Mysteel发布的原创及转载内容，仅供客户参考，不作为决策建议。原创内容版权归Mysteel所有，转载需取得Mysteel书面授 权，且Mysteel保留对任何侵权行为和有悖原创内容原意的引用行为进行追究的权利。转载内容来源于网络，目的在于传递更多信息，方 便学习与交流，并不代表Mysteel赞同其观点及对其真实性、完整性负责。 截至1月2日，全球最大黄金ETF——SPDR Gold Trust持仓较前一日减少5.43吨，当前持仓量为1065.13 吨。 资讯编辑：王芳琴 021-66896877 资讯监督：乐卫扬 021-26093827 资讯投诉：陈跃进 021-26093100 ...

行情回顾： 国际黄金周二（12月16日）维持震荡走势，开盘价4318.16美元/盎司，最高价4335.04美元/盎司，最高价 4335.04美元/盎司，最低价4271.43美元/盎司，收盘价4319.66美元/盎司。 消息面： 美国劳工统计局周二公布的数据显示，11月份非农就业人数增加了6.4万人，而10月份减少了10.5万人。上个月 的失业率为4.6%，高于9月份的4.4%，为2021年以来的最高水平。美国劳工统计局不得不放弃公布10月份的失 业率，因为它无法在政府关门后追溯收集该数据。而10月份就业人数的下降是自2020年底以来的最大降幅，原 因是参加特朗普政府的买断辞职计划的工人正式退出就业名单，联邦政府就业人数减少了16.2万人。 CNBC分析称，美国劳工统计局周二公布的数据显示，11月份非农就业人数增幅略高于预期。由于政府停摆， 这些数据发布有所延迟。当月新增就业人数为64,000人，好于道琼斯预期的45,000人。失业率升至4.6%，高于 预期。劳工统计局还发布了简略的10月份数据，显示非农就业人数减少了10.5万人。虽然没有官方预测，但华 尔街经济学家普遍预计，继9月份意外增加10.8万人之后， ...

Core Viewpoint - The SPDR Gold Trust, the world's largest gold ETF, has seen an increase in holdings to 1,046.36 tons as of November 11, 2025, reflecting a rise of 4.3 tons from the previous trading day, amid a rebound in gold prices which are trading above $4,100 per ounce [7]. Group 1: Gold ETF Holdings - As of November 11, 2025, SPDR Gold Trust's total holdings stand at 1,046.36 tons of gold, marking an increase of 4.3 tons from the prior day [7]. - The increase in gold ETF holdings coincides with a rise in spot gold prices, which reached a three-week high of $4,148.73 per ounce during the trading session [7]. Group 2: Market Conditions and Price Movements - On November 11, spot gold prices fluctuated, closing at $4,126.62 per ounce, up by $10.91 or 0.27% [7]. - The price of gold is supported by expectations of Federal Reserve easing and geopolitical risks, leading to a generally optimistic short-term outlook for gold prices [7][8]. - Recent employment data has reignited market hopes for interest rate cuts, with private sector layoffs averaging 11,250 per week, indicating challenges in job creation [8]. Group 3: Technical Analysis - Gold has broken out of a consolidation range between $3,900 and $4,050, confirming a bullish breakout, although upward momentum appears to be stalling [8]. - The daily chart shows a neutral to bullish pattern, while the 4-hour chart indicates that gold prices are above all major moving averages, supporting further upward movement [8]. Group 4: Price Resistance and Support Levels - A strong breakout above the $4,150 resistance level could enhance bullish momentum, targeting $4,200 and potentially retesting historical highs around $4,381 [9]. - Key support levels are identified at $4,100 and a stronger support near $4,050 [9].

Core Viewpoint - As of November 5, the SPDR Gold Trust holds 1,038.63 tons of gold, unchanged from the previous trading day, while spot gold prices experienced fluctuations, closing at $3,978.95 per ounce, up $47.17 or 1.20% [2] Group 1: Market Dynamics - Spot gold prices initially dipped to around $3,930 before rebounding, reaching a daily high of approximately $3,990, supported by dovish comments from Federal Reserve officials and ongoing safe-haven demand despite strong U.S. economic data pushing the dollar higher [2][3] - U.S. economic indicators show resilience alongside inflation pressures, with ADP reporting 42,000 new jobs in October, exceeding expectations of 25,000, and the ISM services PMI rising from 50 in September to 52.4, indicating inflationary signs [2] Group 2: Federal Reserve Influence - Despite a surge in U.S. Treasury yields following the data release, dovish statements from Federal Reserve officials alleviated market tensions, with calls for lower interest rates [3] - The upcoming Supreme Court hearing regarding the legality of Trump's tariff policies could significantly impact global trade dynamics and market sentiment, with tariff uncertainties driving demand for safe-haven assets like gold [3] Group 3: Technical Analysis - Current market sentiment suggests a neutral to bearish outlook for gold prices, with no strong upward catalysts identified, potentially leading to a period of consolidation lasting weeks or months [3] - Technical indicators show that gold may continue to oscillate within a range, with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicating buyers are gathering strength but not yet breaking above the neutral level of 50 [3] - Support is noted around the $3,900 level, while a break below this could open up further downside potential; conversely, gold needs to stabilize above $4,000 to pave the way for upward movement [4]

Core Viewpoint - The SPDR Gold Trust, the world's largest gold ETF, reported a total holding of 1,038.63 tons of gold, reflecting a decrease of 3.15 tons from the previous trading day, coinciding with a significant drop in spot gold prices [5]. Group 1: Gold ETF Holdings - As of November 4, the SPDR Gold Trust's holdings were 1,038.63 tons, down by 3.15 tons from the previous day [5]. - The decline in gold ETF holdings occurred alongside a notable drop in spot gold prices, which fell to a low of $3,929.14 per ounce, marking the lowest level since October 30 [5]. Group 2: Market Conditions - On November 4, spot gold prices experienced a significant decline, closing at $3,931.78 per ounce, down $69.38 or 1.73% [5]. - The overall market sentiment was affected by a decline in global stock markets and risk assets, leading to a downward trend in commodities such as gold, silver, and oil [5]. Group 3: Economic Factors - The strengthening of the US dollar and rising bond yields have contributed to the pressure on gold prices, with expectations for a December rate cut diminishing [6]. - Economic uncertainty stemming from the potential government shutdown has provided some support for gold prices, as Congress remains deadlocked over funding proposals [6]. Group 4: Technical Analysis - Recent weeks have seen key technical levels breached, particularly the psychological $4,000 mark, triggering technical selling and long liquidation [6]. - The technical outlook for gold indicates an increased risk of correction, with daily momentum indicators showing a downward trend and a weakening bullish sentiment [6][7]. - Short-term support for gold is identified in the $3,910-$3,900 range, with potential challenges to $3,850 and even $3,800 if further declines occur [7].

Core Viewpoint - As of October 29, 2025, the SPDR Gold Trust, the world's largest gold ETF, reported a total holding of 1,036.05 tons of gold, reflecting a decrease of 2.87 tons from the previous trading day, amidst a backdrop of declining gold prices and recent Federal Reserve interest rate cuts [6][7]. Group 1: Gold ETF Holdings - The current total holding of the SPDR Gold Trust is 1,036.05 tons of gold [6]. - The holdings decreased by 2.87 tons compared to the previous trading day [6]. Group 2: Gold Price Movements - On October 29, spot gold prices experienced fluctuations, peaking at $4,029.46 per ounce before falling to a low of $3,917.25 per ounce, ultimately closing at $3,930.10 per ounce, a decline of $22.44 or 0.57% [6]. - Gold prices have been on a downward trend for four consecutive trading days [6]. Group 3: Federal Reserve Actions - The Federal Reserve lowered the target range for the federal funds rate from 4.00%-4.25% to 3.75%-4.00%, marking the first back-to-back rate cuts in a year [6][7]. - The rate cut was in line with market expectations, with the market having largely priced in three rate cuts for the year [7]. Group 4: Market Reactions and Analysis - Fed Chair Jerome Powell indicated that the market's expectation for another rate cut in December is "far from a done deal," suggesting a potential slowdown in the pace of rate cuts if economic conditions remain stable [7]. - Analysts believe that while gold may face short-term pressure if market rate expectations turn hawkish, its long-term upward trend remains intact due to ongoing monetary easing [7]. - Some analysts noted that the recent drop in gold prices of over 10% has made it attractive for bottom-fishing buyers, with central banks potentially increasing their gold holdings during this dip [7]. Group 5: Technical Analysis - Technical indicators suggest that gold may experience further consolidation, with a key support level at $3,900; a breach could lead to testing lower levels [8]. - The daily chart shows a decisive reversal in momentum indicators, indicating strong bearish pressure in the short term [8].

Core Insights - The total holdings of the world's largest gold ETF, SPDR Gold Trust, remain unchanged at 1,038.92 tons as of October 28, 2025, despite fluctuations in gold prices [5] - Gold prices have experienced a downward trend, dropping to a low of $3,886.80 per ounce, the lowest level since October 6, 2025, with a closing price of $3,952.54 per ounce, reflecting a decrease of $28.56 or 0.72% [5] - The signing of a rare earth supply agreement between the U.S. and Japan has injected optimism into the market, reducing gold's appeal as a safe-haven asset [5] Market Trends - The market is closely watching the Federal Reserve's decision, with expectations of a 25 basis point rate cut, marking the second cut since September and the first since December 2024 [6] - The focus will shift to Jerome Powell's speech, where dovish comments could boost gold prices, while hawkish tones may limit upward momentum [6] - Central banks, including the Bank of Korea, are considering increasing gold reserves, which could provide additional support for gold prices [6] Technical Analysis - Gold has seen a correction after a more than 30% increase since late August, with potential for further downside [7] - Key support levels are identified between $3,900 and $3,890, with a decisive break below this range opening up further declines towards $3,800 [7] - Initial resistance is near $4,000, with stronger resistance between $4,050 and $4,150, where multiple moving averages converge [7]

Core Viewpoint - The SPDR Gold Trust, the world's largest gold ETF, reported a total holding of 996.85 tons of gold as of September 24, 2025, reflecting a decrease of 3.72 tons from the previous trading day, indicating profit-taking by investors at high price levels [5]. Group 1: Gold ETF Holdings - As of September 24, 2025, SPDR Gold Trust's holdings were 996.85 tons, down 3.72 tons from the previous day [5]. - The decrease in gold ETF holdings marks the end of a previous trend of continuous increases, suggesting a shift in investor sentiment [5]. Group 2: Gold Price Movements - On September 24, gold prices peaked at just below $3780 per ounce before falling to a low of $3717.46, closing at $3735.88, a drop of $28.05 or 0.75% [5]. - The price drop followed comments from Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, which dampened expectations for interest rate cuts, alongside a strengthening U.S. dollar and rising U.S. Treasury yields [5][6]. Group 3: Market Influences - Investors are closely monitoring the core PCE price index report to gauge the likelihood of future interest rate cuts, with market expectations for two 25 basis point cuts in October and December at probabilities of 93% and 79%, respectively [6]. - The potential government shutdown due to legislative gridlock adds to market uncertainty, increasing demand for safe-haven assets like gold [6]. Group 4: Technical Analysis - Technical indicators suggest a cautious outlook for gold, with the RSI showing a decline and prices expected to oscillate between $3750 and $3700, awaiting new market catalysts [7]. - Key resistance levels are identified at $3791 (historical high) and $3800 (psychological level), while support is noted at $3700, with a breach potentially leading to deeper corrections [7].

Group 1 - The current total holdings of the world's largest gold ETF, SPDR Gold Trust, stand at 975.66 tons, unchanged from the previous trading day [5] - On September 18, spot gold prices fell for the second consecutive day, reaching a low of $3628.43 per ounce and closing at $3644.27, down $15.52 or 0.42% [5] - Market analysts suggest that gold prices are reacting to the recent Federal Reserve interest rate decision, with prices hovering around the $3650 mark, significantly lower than the record high of $3707 reached after the Fed's policy statement [5] Group 2 - Recent economic data showed a significant drop in initial jobless claims in the U.S. to 231,000, the largest decline in nearly four years, which has led to renewed downward pressure on gold prices [6] - Analysts from ANZ Bank believe that gold may perform well at the beginning of the easing cycle, driven by demand for safe-haven assets amid complex geopolitical conditions [6] - Technical analysis indicates that if gold prices break below $3650, the next targets could be the September 11 low of $3613 and the psychological level of $3600 [6][7]

Core Viewpoint - The SPDR Gold Trust, the world's largest gold ETF, reported a significant increase in holdings to 990.56 tons, marking the highest level since August 2022, driven by rising gold prices and favorable market conditions [6]. Group 1: Gold ETF Holdings - As of September 2, the SPDR Gold Trust's holdings rose by 12.88 tons from the previous trading day [6]. - The current total holdings of 990.56 tons represent a substantial increase, reflecting growing investor interest in gold [6]. Group 2: Gold Price Movement - On September 2, spot gold prices surged past $3,500 per ounce, reaching a peak of $3,540.04, and closing at $3,533.35, an increase of $57.04 or 1.64% [6]. - Analysts expect continued increases in gold ETF holdings in the coming week due to the ongoing rise in gold prices [6]. Group 3: Market Drivers - The recent surge in gold prices is attributed to a weakening dollar and expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, particularly following political events affecting the Fed's independence [6]. - UBS forecasts four consecutive rate cuts in the upcoming Federal Reserve meetings, further supporting gold prices [6][7]. Group 4: Technical Analysis - Technical indicators suggest strong potential for gold price increases, with a bullish crossover observed in moving averages [7]. - Short-term resistance is identified at $3,550, with potential challenges to $3,600 and even $4,000 if upward momentum continues [7].