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黄金ETF持仓量报告解读(2025-11-12)金价短期乐观 回调或成机会
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-11-12 04:37
Core Viewpoint - The SPDR Gold Trust, the world's largest gold ETF, has seen an increase in holdings to 1,046.36 tons as of November 11, 2025, reflecting a rise of 4.3 tons from the previous trading day, amid a rebound in gold prices which are trading above $4,100 per ounce [7]. Group 1: Gold ETF Holdings - As of November 11, 2025, SPDR Gold Trust's total holdings stand at 1,046.36 tons of gold, marking an increase of 4.3 tons from the prior day [7]. - The increase in gold ETF holdings coincides with a rise in spot gold prices, which reached a three-week high of $4,148.73 per ounce during the trading session [7]. Group 2: Market Conditions and Price Movements - On November 11, spot gold prices fluctuated, closing at $4,126.62 per ounce, up by $10.91 or 0.27% [7]. - The price of gold is supported by expectations of Federal Reserve easing and geopolitical risks, leading to a generally optimistic short-term outlook for gold prices [7][8]. - Recent employment data has reignited market hopes for interest rate cuts, with private sector layoffs averaging 11,250 per week, indicating challenges in job creation [8]. Group 3: Technical Analysis - Gold has broken out of a consolidation range between $3,900 and $4,050, confirming a bullish breakout, although upward momentum appears to be stalling [8]. - The daily chart shows a neutral to bullish pattern, while the 4-hour chart indicates that gold prices are above all major moving averages, supporting further upward movement [8]. Group 4: Price Resistance and Support Levels - A strong breakout above the $4,150 resistance level could enhance bullish momentum, targeting $4,200 and potentially retesting historical highs around $4,381 [9]. - Key support levels are identified at $4,100 and a stronger support near $4,050 [9].
黄金ETF持仓量报告解读(2025-11-6)鸽派言论及避险需求支撑金价
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-11-06 04:11
Core Viewpoint - As of November 5, the SPDR Gold Trust holds 1,038.63 tons of gold, unchanged from the previous trading day, while spot gold prices experienced fluctuations, closing at $3,978.95 per ounce, up $47.17 or 1.20% [2] Group 1: Market Dynamics - Spot gold prices initially dipped to around $3,930 before rebounding, reaching a daily high of approximately $3,990, supported by dovish comments from Federal Reserve officials and ongoing safe-haven demand despite strong U.S. economic data pushing the dollar higher [2][3] - U.S. economic indicators show resilience alongside inflation pressures, with ADP reporting 42,000 new jobs in October, exceeding expectations of 25,000, and the ISM services PMI rising from 50 in September to 52.4, indicating inflationary signs [2] Group 2: Federal Reserve Influence - Despite a surge in U.S. Treasury yields following the data release, dovish statements from Federal Reserve officials alleviated market tensions, with calls for lower interest rates [3] - The upcoming Supreme Court hearing regarding the legality of Trump's tariff policies could significantly impact global trade dynamics and market sentiment, with tariff uncertainties driving demand for safe-haven assets like gold [3] Group 3: Technical Analysis - Current market sentiment suggests a neutral to bearish outlook for gold prices, with no strong upward catalysts identified, potentially leading to a period of consolidation lasting weeks or months [3] - Technical indicators show that gold may continue to oscillate within a range, with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicating buyers are gathering strength but not yet breaking above the neutral level of 50 [3] - Support is noted around the $3,900 level, while a break below this could open up further downside potential; conversely, gold needs to stabilize above $4,000 to pave the way for upward movement [4]
黄金ETF持仓量报告解读(2025-11-5)金价跌势加速 下挫至3930
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-11-05 06:08
Core Viewpoint - The SPDR Gold Trust, the world's largest gold ETF, reported a total holding of 1,038.63 tons of gold, reflecting a decrease of 3.15 tons from the previous trading day, coinciding with a significant drop in spot gold prices [5]. Group 1: Gold ETF Holdings - As of November 4, the SPDR Gold Trust's holdings were 1,038.63 tons, down by 3.15 tons from the previous day [5]. - The decline in gold ETF holdings occurred alongside a notable drop in spot gold prices, which fell to a low of $3,929.14 per ounce, marking the lowest level since October 30 [5]. Group 2: Market Conditions - On November 4, spot gold prices experienced a significant decline, closing at $3,931.78 per ounce, down $69.38 or 1.73% [5]. - The overall market sentiment was affected by a decline in global stock markets and risk assets, leading to a downward trend in commodities such as gold, silver, and oil [5]. Group 3: Economic Factors - The strengthening of the US dollar and rising bond yields have contributed to the pressure on gold prices, with expectations for a December rate cut diminishing [6]. - Economic uncertainty stemming from the potential government shutdown has provided some support for gold prices, as Congress remains deadlocked over funding proposals [6]. Group 4: Technical Analysis - Recent weeks have seen key technical levels breached, particularly the psychological $4,000 mark, triggering technical selling and long liquidation [6]. - The technical outlook for gold indicates an increased risk of correction, with daily momentum indicators showing a downward trend and a weakening bullish sentiment [6][7]. - Short-term support for gold is identified in the $3,910-$3,900 range, with potential challenges to $3,850 and even $3,800 if further declines occur [7].
黄金ETF持仓量报告解读(2025-10-30)美联储决议后金价跌势加剧
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-10-30 06:24
Core Viewpoint - As of October 29, 2025, the SPDR Gold Trust, the world's largest gold ETF, reported a total holding of 1,036.05 tons of gold, reflecting a decrease of 2.87 tons from the previous trading day, amidst a backdrop of declining gold prices and recent Federal Reserve interest rate cuts [6][7]. Group 1: Gold ETF Holdings - The current total holding of the SPDR Gold Trust is 1,036.05 tons of gold [6]. - The holdings decreased by 2.87 tons compared to the previous trading day [6]. Group 2: Gold Price Movements - On October 29, spot gold prices experienced fluctuations, peaking at $4,029.46 per ounce before falling to a low of $3,917.25 per ounce, ultimately closing at $3,930.10 per ounce, a decline of $22.44 or 0.57% [6]. - Gold prices have been on a downward trend for four consecutive trading days [6]. Group 3: Federal Reserve Actions - The Federal Reserve lowered the target range for the federal funds rate from 4.00%-4.25% to 3.75%-4.00%, marking the first back-to-back rate cuts in a year [6][7]. - The rate cut was in line with market expectations, with the market having largely priced in three rate cuts for the year [7]. Group 4: Market Reactions and Analysis - Fed Chair Jerome Powell indicated that the market's expectation for another rate cut in December is "far from a done deal," suggesting a potential slowdown in the pace of rate cuts if economic conditions remain stable [7]. - Analysts believe that while gold may face short-term pressure if market rate expectations turn hawkish, its long-term upward trend remains intact due to ongoing monetary easing [7]. - Some analysts noted that the recent drop in gold prices of over 10% has made it attractive for bottom-fishing buyers, with central banks potentially increasing their gold holdings during this dip [7]. Group 5: Technical Analysis - Technical indicators suggest that gold may experience further consolidation, with a key support level at $3,900; a breach could lead to testing lower levels [8]. - The daily chart shows a decisive reversal in momentum indicators, indicating strong bearish pressure in the short term [8].
黄金ETF持仓量报告解读(2025-10-29)金价遭大幅抛售跌破3900
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-10-29 04:33
Core Insights - The total holdings of the world's largest gold ETF, SPDR Gold Trust, remain unchanged at 1,038.92 tons as of October 28, 2025, despite fluctuations in gold prices [5] - Gold prices have experienced a downward trend, dropping to a low of $3,886.80 per ounce, the lowest level since October 6, 2025, with a closing price of $3,952.54 per ounce, reflecting a decrease of $28.56 or 0.72% [5] - The signing of a rare earth supply agreement between the U.S. and Japan has injected optimism into the market, reducing gold's appeal as a safe-haven asset [5] Market Trends - The market is closely watching the Federal Reserve's decision, with expectations of a 25 basis point rate cut, marking the second cut since September and the first since December 2024 [6] - The focus will shift to Jerome Powell's speech, where dovish comments could boost gold prices, while hawkish tones may limit upward momentum [6] - Central banks, including the Bank of Korea, are considering increasing gold reserves, which could provide additional support for gold prices [6] Technical Analysis - Gold has seen a correction after a more than 30% increase since late August, with potential for further downside [7] - Key support levels are identified between $3,900 and $3,890, with a decisive break below this range opening up further declines towards $3,800 [7] - Initial resistance is near $4,000, with stronger resistance between $4,050 and $4,150, where multiple moving averages converge [7]
黄金ETF持仓量报告解读(2025-9-25)经济不确定性推动金价上涨
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-09-25 05:40
Core Viewpoint - The SPDR Gold Trust, the world's largest gold ETF, reported a total holding of 996.85 tons of gold as of September 24, 2025, reflecting a decrease of 3.72 tons from the previous trading day, indicating profit-taking by investors at high price levels [5]. Group 1: Gold ETF Holdings - As of September 24, 2025, SPDR Gold Trust's holdings were 996.85 tons, down 3.72 tons from the previous day [5]. - The decrease in gold ETF holdings marks the end of a previous trend of continuous increases, suggesting a shift in investor sentiment [5]. Group 2: Gold Price Movements - On September 24, gold prices peaked at just below $3780 per ounce before falling to a low of $3717.46, closing at $3735.88, a drop of $28.05 or 0.75% [5]. - The price drop followed comments from Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, which dampened expectations for interest rate cuts, alongside a strengthening U.S. dollar and rising U.S. Treasury yields [5][6]. Group 3: Market Influences - Investors are closely monitoring the core PCE price index report to gauge the likelihood of future interest rate cuts, with market expectations for two 25 basis point cuts in October and December at probabilities of 93% and 79%, respectively [6]. - The potential government shutdown due to legislative gridlock adds to market uncertainty, increasing demand for safe-haven assets like gold [6]. Group 4: Technical Analysis - Technical indicators suggest a cautious outlook for gold, with the RSI showing a decline and prices expected to oscillate between $3750 and $3700, awaiting new market catalysts [7]. - Key resistance levels are identified at $3791 (historical high) and $3800 (psychological level), while support is noted at $3700, with a breach potentially leading to deeper corrections [7].
黄金ETF持仓量报告解读(2025-9-19)金价遭遇显著抛压 跌至3630
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-09-19 04:05
Group 1 - The current total holdings of the world's largest gold ETF, SPDR Gold Trust, stand at 975.66 tons, unchanged from the previous trading day [5] - On September 18, spot gold prices fell for the second consecutive day, reaching a low of $3628.43 per ounce and closing at $3644.27, down $15.52 or 0.42% [5] - Market analysts suggest that gold prices are reacting to the recent Federal Reserve interest rate decision, with prices hovering around the $3650 mark, significantly lower than the record high of $3707 reached after the Fed's policy statement [5] Group 2 - Recent economic data showed a significant drop in initial jobless claims in the U.S. to 231,000, the largest decline in nearly four years, which has led to renewed downward pressure on gold prices [6] - Analysts from ANZ Bank believe that gold may perform well at the beginning of the easing cycle, driven by demand for safe-haven assets amid complex geopolitical conditions [6] - Technical analysis indicates that if gold prices break below $3650, the next targets could be the September 11 low of $3613 and the psychological level of $3600 [6][7]
黄金ETF持仓量报告解读(2025-9-3)金价大涨 创近三年最高水平
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-09-03 03:46
Core Viewpoint - The SPDR Gold Trust, the world's largest gold ETF, reported a significant increase in holdings to 990.56 tons, marking the highest level since August 2022, driven by rising gold prices and favorable market conditions [6]. Group 1: Gold ETF Holdings - As of September 2, the SPDR Gold Trust's holdings rose by 12.88 tons from the previous trading day [6]. - The current total holdings of 990.56 tons represent a substantial increase, reflecting growing investor interest in gold [6]. Group 2: Gold Price Movement - On September 2, spot gold prices surged past $3,500 per ounce, reaching a peak of $3,540.04, and closing at $3,533.35, an increase of $57.04 or 1.64% [6]. - Analysts expect continued increases in gold ETF holdings in the coming week due to the ongoing rise in gold prices [6]. Group 3: Market Drivers - The recent surge in gold prices is attributed to a weakening dollar and expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, particularly following political events affecting the Fed's independence [6]. - UBS forecasts four consecutive rate cuts in the upcoming Federal Reserve meetings, further supporting gold prices [6][7]. Group 4: Technical Analysis - Technical indicators suggest strong potential for gold price increases, with a bullish crossover observed in moving averages [7]. - Short-term resistance is identified at $3,550, with potential challenges to $3,600 and even $4,000 if upward momentum continues [7].
突破3500美元!黄金价格创历史新高,背后暗藏三大危机信号?
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-09-02 06:55
Group 1 - On September 2, spot gold surged to $3,500 per ounce, marking a historic high and a more than 32% increase since the beginning of the year, with a single-day rise of over 1%, the largest daily increase since 2025 [2][3] - The largest gold ETF, SPDR Gold Trust, saw its holdings exceed 1,100 tons, reaching a new high for the year, while global central bank gold purchases increased by 20% year-on-year [3] Group 2 - The surge in gold prices is driven by three major crises: a crisis of trust in the US dollar, the looming threat of stagflation, and escalating geopolitical tensions [5] - The US dollar is facing a credibility crisis, exacerbated by dovish comments from the Federal Reserve Chairman and weak economic data, leading to a 100% market bet on a rate cut in September [5] - Stagflation risks are rising, with persistent global inflation, particularly in the US and Europe, driving investors towards gold as an inflation hedge [5] - Geopolitical tensions, particularly the intensifying Ukraine crisis and attacks on energy facilities, have led to increased safe-haven demand for gold [5] Group 3 - For ordinary investors, it is advisable to consider a phased entry into gold, particularly monitoring the support level at $3,400, while the long-term outlook remains strong with target prices projected between $3,700 and $4,000 [7] - The current gold price surge is viewed as a reflection of global economic fractures rather than a mere wealth game, indicating significant asset testing amid a declining dollar and rising inflation [7]
黄金ETF持仓量报告解读(2025-8-15)降息未定 金价何去何从
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-08-15 06:46
Core Viewpoint - The SPDR Gold Trust, the world's largest gold ETF, reported a decrease in holdings to 961.36 tons as of August 14, 2025, reflecting a drop of 2.86 tons from the previous trading day, amid significant adjustments in spot gold prices [5]. Group 1: Gold ETF Holdings - As of August 14, 2025, SPDR Gold Trust's total holdings stand at 961.36 tons [5]. - The holdings decreased by 2.86 tons compared to the previous trading day [5]. Group 2: Market Conditions - On August 14, spot gold prices fell significantly, reaching a low of $3,329.73 per ounce and closing at $3,335.33 per ounce, a decline of $20.69 or 0.62% [5]. - The decline in gold prices is attributed to rising inflation indicators, with the U.S. Producer Price Index (PPI) for July showing a year-on-year increase from 2.3% to 3.3%, the highest level since February [5]. - The month-on-month increase of 0.9% in PPI is the largest since June 2022, driven by soaring service costs [5]. Group 3: Federal Reserve Influence - The rising inflation data has led traders to reduce bets on a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September, resulting in a rebound of the U.S. dollar and Treasury yields, which in turn suppresses gold prices [5]. - Several Federal Reserve officials, including San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly, have publicly opposed a significant 50 basis point rate cut in September, indicating that such a move could send unnecessary signals [6]. - Analysts suggest that while rate cut expectations are already priced in, gold prices may begin to rise by the end of the year due to concerns over high debt levels [6]. Group 4: Technical Analysis - Technical indicators show that while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is above the midpoint, it is not sufficient to confirm a new upward trend for gold prices [5]. - The gold price has closed below the 50-day moving average of $3,350, with the next target being the 100-day moving average at $3,302 [5]. - If gold prices continue to decline, they may challenge the July 31 low of $3,274 [5].