天孚通信 20250826 摘要 天孚通信 2025 年上半年营收同比增长 37%，达亿元级别，其中二季度 营收环比增长近 60%，归母净利润环比增长 66%，显示出强劲的增长 势头，主要受益于 1.6T 产品市场占比提升和新客户导入。 公司 2025 年上半年毛利率为 50.8%，净利率为 36.62%，加权平均净 资产收益率为 20.13%。尽管有源产品毛利率因 1.6T 产品处于爬坡阶 段略有下降，但整体盈利能力依然稳健。 天孚通信持续优化生产管理系统，存货周转率有所提升，应收账款周转 率保持稳定，并通过战略备货等措施有效控制存货，提升了整体营运能 力。 公司有源业务收入同比增长超过 90%，主要得益于数据中心领域需求的 强劲拉动和 1.6T 光模块的逐步量产，同时也在不断扩展市场份额。 公司在苏州、江西和泰国三地进行布局，稳健扩张产能，专注于 CPO 项 目的研发和迭代，目前处于小批量验证阶段，并持续改进以提高性价比。 为确保 1.6T 核心器件如激光器的物料供应，公司采取引入二供等措施， 保障供应链安全与连续性，以支持新产品顺利上量，应对交付压力。 公司在 CPU 领域不断拓展新产品，如 ERS 外 ...

通信行业 2025 年 8 月 22 日 分析师：陈伟光 S0340520060001 电话：0769-22119430 邮箱： chenweiguang@dgzq.com.cn 周 报 分析师：罗炜斌 S0340521020001 电话：0769-22110619 邮箱：luoweibin@dgzq.com.cn SAC 执业证书编号： S0340524070002 电话：0769-22119302 邮箱： chenzhanqian@dgzq.com.cn 资料来源：东莞证券研究所，iFind 相关报告 超配（维持） 通信行业双周报（2025/8/8-2025/8/21） 行 业 全球首批支持 NB-NTN 卫星通信的可穿戴平台面世 投资要点： 本报告的风险等级为中高风险。 本报告的信息均来自已公开信息，关于信息的准确性与完整性，建议投资者谨慎判断，据此入市，风险自担。 请务必阅读末页声明。 | 1、通信行业行情回顾 | | | 3 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2、产业新闻 | | | 4 | | 3、公司公告 | | | 6 | | 4、行业数据更新 | | | 6 | | ...

通信行业 2025 年 8 月 22 日 分析师：陈伟光 S0340520060001 电话：0769-22119430 邮箱： chenweiguang@dgzq.com.cn 周 报 分析师：罗炜斌 S0340521020001 电话：0769-22110619 邮箱：luoweibin@dgzq.com.cn SAC 执业证书编号： S0340524070002 电话：0769-22119302 邮箱： chenzhanqian@dgzq.com.cn 资料来源：东莞证券研究所，iFind 相关报告 全球首批支持 NB-NTN 卫星通信的可穿戴平台面世 投资要点： 本报告的风险等级为中高风险。 本报告的信息均来自已公开信息，关于信息的准确性与完整性，建议投资者谨慎判断，据此入市，风险自担。 请务必阅读末页声明。 SAC 执业证书编号： 通信行业指数近两周涨跌幅：申万通信板块近2周（8/8-8/21）累计上 涨14.81%，跑赢沪深300指数10.59个百分点，涨幅在31个申万一级行业 中位列第1位；申万通信板块8月累计上涨15.25%，跑赢沪深300指数 10.04个百分点；申万通信板块今年累计上涨39 ...

Summary of Conference Call Records Companies and Industries Involved - **Companies**:环旭电子 (Huanxu Electronics), 工业富联 (Industrial Fulian), 比亚迪电子 (BYD Electronics) - **Industries**: Electronics, AI, Automotive, Cooling Technology Key Points and Arguments Huanxu Electronics - Benefiting from integrated SoC eyewear solutions, with expected unit value reaching three-digit USD levels, driven by increased orders from Meta, presenting new investment opportunities [1] - Achieved breakthroughs in 1.6T optical modules, network cards, and power supply businesses, leveraging the packaging capabilities of its parent company, ASE Group, and the advantages of the Taiwanese supply chain [1][2] - The high-voltage power supply product line is projected to reach a market size of $4 billion by 2027, with a target to capture nearly half of the market share [2] Industrial Fulian - Recent strong stock performance attributed to outstanding Q2 financial results, with GB200 cabinets and products beginning to ship, validating its high barriers to entry and profitability [1][4] - The proliferation of liquid cooling technology and the delegation of procurement rights from NVIDIA have reduced overall costs for mainland manufacturers, enhancing profitability [1][4] - Increased shipment volumes and scale effects have made even minor profit improvements significantly impactful for the company [4] BYD Electronics - Continuously improving the structure of North American key customer components and assembly business through the acquisition of JEP and operational improvements, leading to reduced financial costs [1][5] - Major customers plan to launch foldable smartphones and smart home products in 2026, which will provide profit elasticity [5] - Expanding from smart cockpit to smart driving and thermal management in the automotive sector, enhancing competitiveness [3][5] - After obtaining certification from Hengwei in 2024, the company has become a qualified supplier in the power supply and liquid cooling sectors, with strong manufacturing capabilities expected to further expand market share [3][5] - The current valuation of Hong Kong stocks relative to A-shares still has discount space, but the development of AI product lines may change this situation [3][5] Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content - The integration of AI-related components in Huanxu Electronics' product offerings, including SIP modules for WiFi and integrated solutions with SoC, is expected to significantly enhance product miniaturization and value [2] - The impact of supply chain dynamics on BYD Electronics' competitive advantage and potential valuation uplift if supply chains are relaxed in the future [3][5]

Summary of Conference Call on Optical Module Industry Industry Overview - The optical module industry is experiencing a significant shift due to the explosive demand from the North American inference market, which is expected to enhance the sustainability of capital expenditures in 2025 [1][4] - Chinese companies are playing an increasingly important role in the technological iteration of optical modules, particularly in high-end products like 800G and 1.6T, leading to a growing market share and concentration towards leading firms [1][6] Key Insights and Arguments - The demand for pluggable optical modules in the inference market has been underestimated, with a notable increase in the ratio of ASIC chips to optical modules, such as Meta and Amazon's ratios of 1:6 to 1:8, and Huawei's Cloud Matrix reaching 1:18 [1][7] - The second quarter of 2025 saw a sharp increase in the optical module market, primarily driven by the North American inference demand and the ramp-up in 800G laser module demand, with expectations for continued growth in the third and fourth quarters [1][8] - Major tech companies in North America are making substantial investments in AI computing, which supports the demand for optical modules, with leading companies currently undervalued [1][10] Market Performance and Investor Sentiment - Since May, the optical module industry has seen a significant rise, particularly with companies like Xuchuang showing outstanding performance. However, investors have mixed views on future trends, focusing on market saturation, short-term positioning, and future development [2] - The optical module industry underwent adjustments from June to November 2023 due to slowing user growth for GPT-4 and concerns over the sustainability of capital expenditures, but a recovery is anticipated with the rise of Sora optical interconnect technology [3] Supporting Evidence for Industry Growth - Three key pieces of evidence support the growth of the optical module industry: performance guidance from inference chips like ASICs, growth in enterprise leasing in computing, and the significant increase in token consumption by major companies like Google [5] - The trend towards optical interconnect technology is expected to increase hardware demand significantly, as the industry shifts from copper to optical connections in scale-up networks [14] Future Investment Opportunities - The outlook for investment in the optical module sector remains optimistic, with accelerated AI model iterations and substantial investments in AI computing by major U.S. companies [9][10] - The upcoming 1.6T product upgrade cycle is expected to bring significant changes, with major companies likely to see accelerated performance [12] Company-Specific Insights - Taiyuan Optical's recent performance showed a net profit of approximately 94 million yuan, which, while not meeting expectations, remains within a reasonable range. Concerns about revenue and profit margins are considered short-term issues [19][25] - The revenue share of Taiyuan Optical in Corning's optical communication enterprise network business has fluctuated between 8% and 12% over the past several years, with a recent increase to 9% in Q2 2025 [20] - Despite lower revenue growth compared to Corning, Taiyuan Optical's performance in Q2 2025 indicates a healthy trajectory, with expectations for continued growth in the latter half of the year [21][25] Conclusion - The optical module industry is poised for growth driven by technological advancements and increased demand from the AI sector, with significant contributions from both North American and Chinese companies. The market dynamics suggest a favorable environment for investment, particularly in leading firms within the sector.

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the green computing industry Core Insights - The report emphasizes the necessity of developing green computing to address the increasing energy consumption and carbon emissions associated with computing power, which is seen as a critical component of high-quality development in the digital economy [7][21] - It highlights the significant growth in computing power in China, with a total scale reaching 280 EFLOPS by the end of 2024, and an average growth rate of nearly 30% over the past five years [7][9] - The report outlines the integration of green computing into various sectors, including energy, manufacturing, retail, transportation, and construction, with over 86% of central enterprises adopting cloud services [9][21] Summary by Sections 1. Background of Green Computing Research - The report identifies the exponential growth in energy demand for computing infrastructure, driven by advancements in AI technologies and distributed computing [19][20] - It discusses the contradiction between the increasing demand for computing power and the limited environmental capacity, necessitating a transformation towards green computing [21][22] 2. Overall Progress in Green Computing - The report notes a tightening of global policies regarding energy consumption and carbon emissions in the computing sector, with various countries implementing stringent regulations [29][30] - In China, policies are shifting from intensive construction to a collaborative model focusing on efficiency, energy consumption, and application [30][31] 3. Development Trends in Computing Equipment - The report highlights the rapid growth of AI servers as a key driver of energy consumption in computing equipment, with global data center IT loads expected to increase significantly by 2030 [48][49] - It mentions that China's computing equipment efficiency is improving, with advancements in chip manufacturing and cooling technologies [51] 4. Industry Dynamics - The report outlines the green computing industry chain, which includes hardware suppliers, energy providers, infrastructure builders, and application customers [37] - It emphasizes the importance of energy efficiency technologies, such as liquid cooling, which is projected to grow significantly in the coming years [41][42] 5. Corporate Practices - The report details various corporate initiatives aimed at achieving carbon neutrality and enhancing energy efficiency, with major tech companies committing to renewable energy usage [43][45] - It highlights the proactive measures taken by Chinese telecom operators to promote green computing and energy collaboration [45][46]

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Industry Overview - The overseas computing power market is experiencing strong demand growth, exceeding previous pessimistic expectations, particularly in the optical module industry, which is seeing growth rates surpassing forecasts [2][1]. - The optical module market is expected to see significant growth driven by AI, with demand for 800G modules projected to reach 35-40 million units and 1.6T modules expected to reach 6-7 million units by 2026, maintaining an overall revenue growth rate of at least 50% [3][11]. Core Companies and Performance - Core companies in the optical module market include Xuchuang and Xinyi, both showing strong performance with Q2 results significantly exceeding market expectations, with Xinyi's revenue reaching approximately 2.4 billion yuan [5][4]. - Other notable companies include Bochuang and Taichuang, which are also performing well in the MPO segment, and Jin Tong and Woer in the same supply chain [5]. Profitability Trends - The profitability of the optical module industry is on the rise due to increased demand driven by AI, with new product price reductions narrowing to 10-15% compared to the previous 20% [3][4]. - Xuchuang's net profit margin and gross profit margin are expected to improve, indicating a continuing trend of profitability enhancement through 2026 [3][4]. Impact of NVIDIA's Supply Chain - NVIDIA's supply chain is significantly boosting the optical module industry, with Industrial Fulian reporting a Q2 profit of 6.7-6.9 billion yuan, a 30% year-on-year increase, largely due to accelerated shipments of NVIDIA GPU cabinets [6][8]. - The release of NVIDIA's GB200 and GB300 cabinets is expected to further drive industry growth in the second half of the year and into 2026 [6][8]. Model Iteration and Demand - The release of advanced AI models such as OpenAI's GPT-5 and XAI's GROK4 is anticipated to enhance performance and drive demand for computing power and hardware, thereby increasing the need for optical modules [9][10]. - The scaling laws demonstrated by GROK4, which has significantly increased training volume, highlight the importance of continued investment in computing infrastructure for AI model development [9]. Future Market Expectations - The optical module market demand for 2026 is being continuously revised upwards, with expectations for 800G and 1.6T modules being adjusted significantly higher than initial forecasts [10][11]. - The overall revenue growth for the optical module industry is expected to remain robust, supported by strong demand from major cloud service providers like Meta and new entrants like Oracle and XAI [10][11]. Secondary Companies to Watch - Secondary companies such as Bochuang, Taichuang, and Xiaoguangzi are noted for their long-term potential, with Bochuang expected to achieve revenues of around 1.5 billion yuan in 2026 due to strong partnerships [13]. - Taichuang's growth is closely tied to the demand for MPO connectors, while Xiaoguangzi is leveraging its AWG chip advantages to enhance its MPU business [13]. Copper Connection Industry Insights - The copper connection industry is seeing improvements in shipment expectations, particularly for NV chains, with anticipated shipments of 30,000 to 40,000 units for GB200 and GP300 [14]. - The market is also witnessing increased attention on non-NV chain demand, driven by rising shipments from companies like Google, Amazon, and Meta [14][15]. Concerns and Future Outlook - There are concerns regarding the potential replacement of copper connections by PDFE orthogonal solutions, but current products like NVIDIA's Rubin series are expected to maintain compatibility with existing copper solutions [16][17]. - The copper cable connection market is likely to remain strong in the near term, with a longer lifecycle anticipated if alternative solutions do not meet expectations [17]. Other Notable Company Performances - Woer has shown strong performance in the high-speed line sector, with significant revenue growth expected in Q3 due to new equipment and large-scale cabinet shipments [18]. - Ding Tong Technology's communication business is experiencing growth, although its automotive segment faces challenges; however, future projects with high profit margins are expected to bolster overall performance [19][21].

Summary of the Conference Call for Shijia Photonics Industry Overview - The AI computing power demand remains optimistic, with high-frequency data showing explosive growth year-on-year and month-on-month, indicating a broad application of AI in the B-end market. The upcoming release of large models like GPT-5 is expected to catalyze the industry and enhance valuations, benefiting related stock trading strategies [2][3] - The optical module industry is experiencing significant growth opportunities, with an upward revision in the demand for 800G optical modules and a confirmed ramp-up in 1.6T optical modules. Shijia Photonics is expected to benefit from the increased production of 800G and 1.6T products and the rising penetration rate of CPU applications [2][5] Company Highlights - Shijia Photonics has acquired Fokexima, enhancing its technical strength and market competitiveness. Fokexima specializes in MPO components and holds nearly 60 patents, reporting revenue of 82.57 million yuan and a net profit of 30.68 million yuan in Q1 2025 [2][6] - Fokexima has been certified by several leading clients, including optical module manufacturers and structured cabling companies, with its 800G and 1.6T single-mode low-loss connectors already in mass production for high-speed data transmission applications [2][7][8] - The acquisition of Fokexima is expected to significantly enhance Shijia Photonics' technical capabilities and market position, particularly in the MPO component sector [6][30] Product Development and Market Trends - The optical module industry is witnessing notable trends, with a strong demand for 800G and 1.6T products. Shijia Photonics has a comprehensive layout in both passive and active products, benefiting from the ramp-up of its 800G and 1.6T products and the accelerated penetration of CPU applications [5][29] - The AWG (Arrayed Waveguide Grating) products of Shijia Photonics are competitive, with strong performance in loss metrics and leading capacity and customer response. The demand for AWG products continues to grow, covering major domestic optical modem manufacturers [4][23] - The company is also focusing on new product categories such as CW light sources and EML optical chips, which are expected to open up larger growth opportunities [5][30] Financial Performance and Future Outlook - The acquisition of Fokexima is anticipated to improve Shijia Photonics' capacity utilization and gross margin, although the specific impact is yet to be quantified. The company is adjusting its product structure to enhance the gross margin of MPO products [13][30] - The potential output value of the Thai factory, which is currently in the equipment debugging and employee training phase, is expected to be significant, although actual production value needs further enhancement [19] - The company’s MPO products are primarily multi-mode until 2024, after which there will be a gradual shift towards single-mode products, which are expected to improve gross margins [14][30] Competitive Landscape - The barriers to entry in the connector industry, particularly for MPO connectors, are primarily based on technological advancement. Fokexima has achieved mass production of products with 2 to 48 fiber holes, leading the domestic market in technology [11][12] - The company is also exploring the application of wavelength division multiplexing technology in DR optical module products, which is expected to reduce costs and meet increasing demand [24] Conclusion - Shijia Photonics is well-positioned for future growth, particularly in the AWG product line, which is expected to replace traditional filter methods. The company has achieved significant sales in MPO connectors, with a growth rate of approximately 400% in Q1 2025 compared to the previous year [29][30] - The active optical chip market is projected to reach around 15-16 billion yuan in 2025, with Shijia Photonics playing a crucial role in this growth [30]

Summary of Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The optical module market is experiencing a positive outlook, driven by the new developments and optimistic forecasts from internet cloud companies. The demand for 800G and 1.6T optical modules is expected to reach 40 million and 6-8 million units respectively by 2026, primarily due to changes in CSB manufacturers' architectures and increased market demand [1][4]. Key Companies and Their Performance - **Leading Companies**: - **Xuchuang** maintains its leading position in the market, while **Xinyi** has rapidly increased its market share, collaborating closely with major clients like Meta and Amazon. Revenue for leading companies is projected to reach RMB 36-37 billion in 2025 and RMB 44-45 billion in 2026, with significant potential for profit margin improvement [1][5]. - **Second-tier Companies**: - Companies like **Sorshi**, **LianTe Technology**, and **Cambridge Technology** are expected to capture market share, with the overall industry beta being revised upwards. If Sorshi secures over a million 800G orders, its profitability could significantly improve [6][8]. - **Domestic Leaders**: - Domestic leaders such as **Huagong Technology** and **Guangxun Technology** are set to benefit from increased capital expenditure in the domestic CS market, with strong performance anticipated in the second half of 2025 [7][8]. Market Trends and Future Expectations - The optical module market is expected to grow, with 800G module demand projected to rise from 35 million to 40 million units, and 1.6T modules from 5 million to 6-8 million units. This growth is influenced by collaborations like that between Google and OpenAI, which may further boost demand [4][12]. - The optical module jumpers market shows significant potential, with an estimated demand of 20 million units for 800G jumpers, translating to a market space worth hundreds of billions of RMB. Companies like **Taisheng Guangbo**, **Hengtong Optic-electric**, and **Aikangde** are expected to benefit from this market [9]. Technological Developments - **Meta's New Architecture**: Meta's MTIA architecture increases the demand for OSFP 800G optical modules and copper DAC connections, significantly impacting the CSP field. This architecture utilizes a large number of optical modules, which is expected to drive demand from major internet companies [13]. - **Copper Connections**: The role of copper connections in data center interconnectivity is crucial, with companies like **Credo** showing substantial revenue growth and plans to double capital expenditures, indicating a healthy market for copper connections [14]. Conclusion - The optical module industry is poised for growth, with strong demand for high-end products like 800G and 1.6T modules. The collaboration between major tech companies and the increasing capital expenditure in the domestic market are key drivers of this growth. Companies in both the leading and second-tier categories are expected to benefit significantly from these trends, making them worthy of investment consideration [12][19].

Summary of the Conference Call on Optical Module Research Industry Overview - The conference call focuses on the optical module industry, particularly the demand and pricing trends for 400G and 800G optical modules in 2025 and 2026 [2][5][10]. Key Points and Arguments 1. **800G Optical Module Demand**: The demand for 800G optical modules is in a ramp-up phase, with expectations for significant growth in 2026, projected at 35 to 38 million units, reflecting strong market demand for high-performance optical modules [4][5]. 2. **Pricing Trends**: The price of 800G optical modules has decreased by approximately 15% due to scale production, with an additional expected decline of around 10% by the end of the year. This cost optimization is crucial for manufacturers' competitiveness [2][5]. 3. **400G Optical Module Stability**: The average price of 400G optical modules remains stable, indicating a steady market for this segment [2][5]. 4. **Cloud Service Providers' Demand**: Companies like Zhongji Xuchuang are expected to achieve quarterly revenues of 50 to 60 million yuan in Q2, highlighting the urgent demand from cloud service providers for high-speed optical modules [7]. 5. **AI Computing Impact**: The explosion of AI computing is driving growth in 1.6T optical modules, with expectations for shipment volumes to double in 2026 compared to 2025. Companies that master silicon photonic integrated high-speed DSP chips will gain a market advantage [8][10]. 6. **Meta's Demand for High-Performance Modules**: Meta's data centers have a high ratio of ASIC chips to optical modules at 1.8, indicating a strong demand for high-performance optical modules. Companies like Zhongji Xuchuang and Xinyi Sheng have been certified by Meta and Google for bulk supply [9]. 7. **North American Manufacturers' Strategy**: North American manufacturers are accelerating their production lines for 800G and 1.6T modules, with market competition shifting towards cost control, delivery capabilities, and technological iteration [9][10]. Additional Important Insights - The key factors influencing market development include the capacity release rhythm of leading manufacturers and advancements in silicon photonics and next-generation technologies like CPO [3][10]. - The short-term outlook suggests that the price decline of 800G modules will enhance market penetration, while the long-term perspective indicates that 1.6T products will become a growth engine alongside the expansion of AI computing capabilities [3][10].