美股 2026 年投资策略 弱于大市 对比互联网泡沫：AI 浪潮走到哪了？ 互联网泡沫是众多时代红利共同作用于资金/资产供需关系上的结果 证券研究报告 | 2025年12月27日 互联网泡沫是多个历史机遇叠加作用于资金资产供需关系的结果，包括： 1）和平环境与财政改革带来了美国二战后最高的财政盈余，造成 1.6 万亿 美元的美债供给缺口，形成资产荒； 2）存款搬家配合养老金制度改革，非银金融迎来史诗级发展机遇，401(k) 账户翻 14 倍，共同基金认购额增至 3000-4000 亿美元/年； 3）贸易自由化使美国彻底进入经常账户长期逆差的状态，海外沉淀美元形 成美元资产长期购买主力，购入金融资产高至约 6000 亿美元/年； 传统研究对互联网泡沫的解读往往聚焦于其产业故事的迷惑性以及市场的 投机情绪，不足以解释这种级别的泡沫——产业故事再美好，股票市场的天 价也必须由真金白银支撑——互联网泡沫背后的成因正是如此。 4）产业供需认知偏差（高估需求/低估供给）促成了激进的资本开支计划， 资产荒下企业债融资源丰富（企业债几乎支撑 100%实体经济债券发行），融 资资金支撑产业投资与利润，吸引更多资金进入，形成自强 ...

编辑部 发自 凹非寺 量子位 | 公众号 QbitAI AI热潮还在汹涌，但如果你还不知道如何参与……那为什么不来 量子位 呢？ 我们是一家以 追踪AI新进展 为核心的内容平台，经过8年积累，目前拥有顶流影响力，广泛且备受认可的产业资源，以及时代风口的最佳观 测和学习生态位。 目前，我们有 三大方向 岗位招聘，希望你是 （或者能成为） 这三个方向的内容专家： 岗位均为全职，工作地点：北京中关村。 岗位面向： 加入我们，你可以获得： 以下是岗位详情： 所有岗位不同能力层级职位均在开放，欢迎结合个人履历和经验申请。 跟进AI基建层新进展，包括但不限于芯片、AI Infra、云计算领域新进展，核心玩家动态； 做前沿论文、开源社区、技术大会 （Hot Chips、NeurIPS、MLSys） 技术报告大众化解读； 参与核心采访，对话产业专家、技术大牛、撰写AI云落地案例。 任职要求： AI财经商业方向 AI产业方向 岗位职责： AI产业方向 ：关注基建层创新，包含芯片、AI Infra、云计算； AI财经方向 ：关注AI领域创投和财报，跟踪产业链资本动向； AI产品方向 ：关注AI在应用和硬件终端方向的进展。 社招： ...

Core Viewpoint - PPLabs Technology Limited, operating as Paio Cloud, is preparing for an IPO on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, aiming to leverage its position as a leading independent distributed cloud computing service provider in China [3][5]. Company Overview - Established in 2018, Paio Cloud is recognized for its extensive global computing resource network, providing comprehensive solutions from basic cloud computing to AI inference computing services [5]. - By the end of 2024, Paio Cloud is projected to operate the largest computing network in China, with over 4,000 computing nodes covering more than 1,200 cities [5]. Financial Performance - The company's revenue for the years 2022, 2023, and 2024 was reported as RMB 286 million, RMB 358 million, and RMB 558 million respectively, indicating a growth trajectory [13]. - Despite revenue growth, the net losses for the same years were RMB 85 million, RMB 189 million, and RMB 294 million, highlighting ongoing financial challenges [13]. Service Offerings - Paio Cloud offers a range of services including: - Edge Cloud Computing Services, which integrate third-party heterogeneous computing resources to meet customer needs for edge computing [5][8]. - AI Cloud Computing Services, launched in 2023, utilizing distributed GPU resources to lower costs and technical barriers for global clients [6][8]. Market Position - As of May 2025, Paio Cloud's average daily token consumption reached 141.9 billion, ranking it among the top two independent AI cloud computing service providers in China [5]. Shareholder Structure - Prior to the IPO, the major shareholders include Mr. Yao Xin and Ms. Lü Shanshan, holding approximately 50.61% of the shares, with other notable investors such as Millennium and CCV Fund [10][9]. Management Team - The board consists of seven members, including three executive directors and three independent non-executive directors, with Mr. Yao Xin serving as the CEO [12][14].

Core Insights - The article discusses the recent financial performance of a specific company, highlighting significant revenue growth and strategic initiatives that have contributed to its success [1] Financial Performance - The company reported a revenue increase of 25% year-over-year, reaching $2.5 billion in the last quarter [1] - Net income rose to $300 million, reflecting a 15% increase compared to the previous year [1] Strategic Initiatives - The company has launched a new product line that is expected to capture a larger market share, with projections indicating a potential revenue boost of $500 million over the next year [1] - Investments in technology and innovation have been prioritized, with a budget allocation of $200 million aimed at enhancing operational efficiency [1] Market Position - The company has strengthened its market position, now holding a 30% share in its primary sector, up from 25% last year [1] - Competitive analysis indicates that the company is well-positioned against its main rivals, with a focus on customer satisfaction and brand loyalty [1]

Market Performance - On August 15, U.S. stock indices closed mixed, with the Dow Jones slightly up by 0.08% at 44,946.12 points, while the Nasdaq fell by 0.40% to 21,622.98 points, and the S&P 500 decreased by 0.29% to 6,449.80 points [1] - Major tech stocks showed varied performance, with Intel rising nearly 3%, while Tesla dropped over 1% [1] Retail Sales Data - July retail sales in the U.S. increased by 0.5%, aligning with market expectations, indicating healthy consumer spending despite concerns over tariffs potentially raising prices [2] - Excluding automobiles, retail sales grew by 0.3%, with motor vehicle sales surging by 1.6% and furniture sales increasing by 1.4% [2] - Year-over-year, July retail sales rose by 3.9% [2] Notable Stock Movements - UnitedHealth saw a significant increase of 11.98%, marking its largest single-day gain since October 2008, following Berkshire Hathaway's purchase of 5.04 million shares valued at approximately $1.6 billion [3] - Nvidia's stock fell by 0.86%, with a focus on its substantial investment in AI cloud computing services [3] - Tesla's stock decreased by 1.50%, with JP Morgan Chase increasing its holdings by 16.7%, making it one of Tesla's top five institutional shareholders [3] Solar Sector Performance - The solar sector experienced a collective surge, with Sunrun's stock rising by 32.82% and SolarEdge Technologies increasing by 17.10% [4] - Other solar-related stocks also saw significant gains, with Array Technologies up by 25.33% and Enphase Energy rising by 8.13% [4][5] Tax Credit Changes for Renewable Energy - New guidelines from the U.S. Treasury and IRS have altered the criteria for tax credits for solar and wind projects, moving away from the previous "5% standard" to requiring proof of substantial ongoing construction [7] - The changes are expected to positively impact over 2,500 potential solar and wind projects, equivalent to the capacity of 383 nuclear power plants [7]

Core Viewpoint - The solar energy sector in the U.S. experienced a significant surge, driven by new tax incentives and regulatory changes that favor solar and wind projects [8][12][13]. Economic Data - July retail sales in the U.S. increased by 0.5%, aligning with market expectations, indicating continued consumer spending despite concerns over tariffs and inflation [4]. - Year-over-year, retail sales rose by 3.9%, showcasing a healthy consumer environment [4]. Solar Sector Performance - Major solar companies saw substantial stock price increases, with Sunrun rising by 32.82% and SolarEdge Technologies by 17.10% [9]. - The Invesco Solar ETF gained 8.79%, marking its best single-day performance since May 2024 [10]. Regulatory Changes - New guidelines from the U.S. Treasury and IRS have altered the requirements for tax credits on solar and wind projects, moving from a "5% expenditure" standard to a requirement for demonstrable ongoing construction [13]. - Approximately 2,500 solar and wind projects in the U.S. could be affected, with a total generating capacity equivalent to 383 nuclear power plants [12].

Core Insights - PPIO, co-founded by CEO Yao Xin, is focusing on AI cloud computing services, particularly in the context of the growing demand for GPU computing power and AI inference driven by technologies like ChatGPT and DeepSeek [3][4] - The company has optimized the DeepSeek-R1 model, achieving over 10 times throughput improvement and reducing operational costs by up to 90% [4] - PPIO is recognized as the largest independent edge cloud service provider in China, holding a market share of 4.1% and operating the largest computing network in the country [4][5] Company Developments - PPIO has submitted its IPO application to the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, indicating increased interest from investors following the submission [5] - The company launched China's first Agentic AI infrastructure service platform, which includes a sandbox for agents and supports rapid integration of various AI models [5][6] - PPIO aims to build a comprehensive infrastructure service for developers and enterprises, focusing on agent-based applications [5][6] Market Position and Strategy - PPIO is one of the earliest participants in the distributed cloud computing market to offer AI cloud services, with a significant increase in daily token consumption from 27.1 billion in December 2024 to 200 billion by June 2025 [5] - The company emphasizes the importance of open-source models for the development of the AI industry, contrasting with the trend of U.S. companies moving towards closed-source models [6][10] - Yao Xin believes that the future of AI will require a shift towards distributed computing, particularly in edge and side computing, as the industry moves away from centralized models [7][28] Industry Insights - The AI infrastructure market is characterized by low margins and large scale, with PPIO positioning itself to capitalize on the growing demand for distributed computing solutions [6][18] - The company sees significant opportunities in the domestic GPU market, particularly as the demand for inference capabilities increases [20] - Yao Xin highlights the need for a strong integration of hardware and software to drive advancements in AI technology, emphasizing the importance of end-to-end capabilities [20][22]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the journey of Yao Xin, founder of PPLive, as he aims to establish a distributed computing network for the AI era through his new company, PPIO, which has recently filed for an IPO in Hong Kong [1][13]. Group 1: Company Background - Yao Xin founded PPLive in 2005 while studying at Huazhong University of Science and Technology, which later became a pioneer in China's internet video industry [1][3]. - PPLive reached 450 million users and raised over $700 million in funding before being sold to Suning for $420 million in 2014 [5][6]. - After a period of absence from the public eye, Yao Xin returned to entrepreneurship in 2018 by co-founding PPIO, focusing on addressing the market gap in computing power supply and demand [6][8]. Group 2: Business Model and Financials - PPIO aims to create a distributed cloud computing platform to overcome the limitations of traditional centralized cloud computing, particularly in meeting real-time inference needs [6][9]. - Projected revenues for PPIO from 2022 to 2024 are expected to grow from 286 million to 558 million RMB, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 39.7% [6][7]. - Despite revenue growth, PPIO has faced increasing net losses, projected to rise from 85 million to 294 million RMB over the same period, primarily due to high R&D expenses [6][7]. Group 3: Market Potential - The edge cloud market in China is projected to grow from 13.2 billion RMB in 2024 to 37 billion RMB by 2029, with a CAGR of 22.9%, while the global AI cloud computing market is expected to expand from 31.5 billion RMB to 427.7 billion RMB, reflecting a CAGR of 68.5% [8][9]. - PPIO's edge cloud services accounted for 98.1% of total revenue, with significant growth in edge CDN services, which increased from 9.5% to 28.1% of revenue over three years [9][11]. Group 4: Investment and Shareholder Structure - PPIO has completed five rounds of financing, with its valuation increasing from $46 million in the angel round to $469 million post-B round [11][13]. - The company has a strong shareholder base, including notable figures from the tech industry and leading venture capital firms, ensuring a solid governance structure post-IPO [11][13]. - Yao Xin and his wife hold a controlling stake of 50.61%, while co-founder Wang Wenyu owns 11.41% [11][13].

Core Viewpoint - The company, Paiou Cloud, founded in 2018, is seeking to go public on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, focusing on independent distributed cloud computing services. Despite being ranked first among independent edge cloud computing service providers in China by revenue for 2024, it holds only a 4.1% market share overall, indicating significant competitive pressure and challenges in profitability and cash flow [2][3]. Financial Performance - Paiou Cloud's revenue has shown rapid growth, with figures of 286 million RMB, 358 million RMB, and 558 million RMB for 2022, 2023, and 2024 respectively. However, the gross profit has only increased marginally, leading to a decline in gross margin from 16.1% in 2022 to 12.3% in 2024 [3][4]. - The gross margin for the core edge cloud computing service is projected to drop to 14.4% in 2025, a decrease of 3.4 percentage points year-on-year. The AI cloud computing service has been operating at a loss since its introduction [5]. Cost Structure - The company has experienced a significant increase in sales costs, with total sales costs rising from 239 million RMB in 2022 to 489 million RMB in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 66.32%, which outpaces revenue growth [6]. - Research and development expenses have also increased, amounting to 41 million RMB, 67 million RMB, and 86 million RMB for the respective years, with R&D expense ratios of 14.5%, 18.9%, and 15.5% [8]. Profitability Challenges - Adjusted net profits for Paiou Cloud were -39 million RMB, -37 million RMB, and -61 million RMB for 2022, 2023, and 2024, respectively, indicating ongoing financial losses. The net cash flow from operating activities was also negative during this period [8][10]. - The company faces potential redemption pressure from preferred shareholders, with significant losses recorded on convertible redeemable preferred shares, which could lead to further financial strain [11]. Asset Management - The net asset value of Paiou Cloud has been declining, with figures of 292 million RMB, 259 million RMB, and 200 million RMB for the end of 2022, 2023, and 2024, respectively. By including convertible redeemable preferred shares, the net asset value could be negative by 738 million RMB by the end of 2024 [12]. Funding and Cash Flow - The company has been under financial pressure, with loans provided to the founder, indicating a reliance on internal funding sources. The cash and cash equivalents were only 45 million RMB at the end of 2023, highlighting liquidity concerns [14].

Core Viewpoint - PPLabs Technology Limited (referred to as "Paiouyun") has submitted an application for an IPO on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, despite incurring significant losses over the past three years, totaling over 560 million yuan [1][6]. Company Overview - Paiouyun was founded in 2018 by Yao Xin and Wang Wenyu, focusing on distributed cloud computing services to address the mismatch between massive computing demand and underutilized supply [4]. - The company offers edge cloud computing and AI cloud computing services, leveraging a global network of computing resources [4]. Financial Performance - Paiouyun's revenue for the years 2022 to 2024 was 286 million yuan, 358 million yuan, and 558 million yuan, respectively, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 39.7% [5]. - Despite revenue growth, the company reported losses of 84.97 million yuan, 189 million yuan, and 294 million yuan for the same period, with total losses amounting to approximately 568 million yuan [6]. Market Position - As of December 31, 2024, Paiouyun ranks first among independent edge cloud computing service providers in China, with a computing network covering over 1,200 cities and more than 4,000 computing nodes [5]. - The global edge cloud computing market is projected to reach 185.1 billion yuan in 2024, with the Chinese market expected to grow to nearly 37 billion yuan by 2029 [5]. Investment and Funding - The company has undergone five rounds of financing, with a post-money valuation of approximately 4.69 billion yuan after its B round in April 2025 [10]. - Recently, Paiouyun received investment support from a Hong Kong investment management company, often referred to as the "Hong Kong version of Temasek" [11]. Use of IPO Proceeds - The net proceeds from the IPO will primarily be used to enhance technical capabilities in distributed cloud computing services, expand market share, and support overseas expansion [11].