Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Meitu, with a target price of 7.49 HKD [11]. Core Viewpoints - AI technology is expected to have a supplementary effect on image life scenarios in the short term, while the long-term competitiveness will rely on vertical data-driven AI model tuning and user understanding [5][14][19]. - The global market for image life scenarios is projected to reach approximately 7 billion USD in 2024, with a low average payment penetration rate of around 4% [21][25]. - Meitu is well-positioned to benefit from user growth and increased subscription penetration driven by AI, leveraging its deep understanding of user needs and experience in high-quality domestic products [6][49]. Summary by Sections Industry Investment Rating - The report recommends a "Buy" rating for Meitu, indicating confidence in its market position and growth potential [11]. Market Analysis - The image life scenario market primarily targets social and entertainment needs, with a user base of approximately 4 billion but a low payment penetration rate of 4% [21][25]. - The potential market space for image life scenarios in 2024 is estimated at 7 billion USD, which is significantly less than productivity scenarios [21][25]. AI Impact on the Industry - AI is expected to enhance product capabilities rather than replace existing applications in the short term, with traditional applications maintaining an advantage due to established user habits and data accumulation [5][14][19]. - AI can create new user growth paths and expand subscription opportunities, with successful examples like FaceApp and Meitu demonstrating the effectiveness of AI-driven features in user engagement [3][15][40]. Regional Market Opportunities - The report highlights the differences in subscription model maturity across global markets, with the US and Europe being more established, while Southeast Asia presents significant growth potential due to its large user base and cultural affinity [4][18][62]. - In the US market, the revenue contribution is high, while Southeast Asia has a larger number of active users, making both regions key targets for Meitu's international expansion [62][63]. Competitive Landscape - The report argues against the prevailing market view that AI will disrupt traditional image life applications, asserting that the short-term impact will be more about enhancement than replacement [5][19]. - Meitu's long-standing experience in the beauty application sector positions it favorably to leverage AI advancements for sustained growth and user retention [6][49].

其中，该行指出，公司预计截至2月国内生活类场景下付费渗透率达到5.2%，突破此前5%的目标，主要 系生成式AI对传统功能的重构，比如用AI去双下巴功能取代传统的手动推图，实现对体验和效果的更 好满足，从而促进订阅转化率的提升。该行认为，公司基于长期沉淀的人像修图场景数据，通过低频功 能迭代+高频体验升级的模式，有利于用户留存与回流维持在健康水平。公司预计25年生活类付费会员 增长有望提供订阅收入弹性，维持生活类产品10%的长期订阅渗透率目标。 该行续指，根据SensorTower，1Q以来，定位欧美日韩市场的Airbrush、BeautyPlus MAU较为稳定；AI 换装等功能在东南亚出圈，带动海外版Wink、美颜相机MAU环比大幅增长。受益于较高付费意愿和高 级产品定位，公司预计截至24年Airbrush付费率远高于国内，而其他出海产品还在积极扩张新市场阶 段，短期尚未激进变现，对比成熟市场，远期付费率还有较大提升空间。 智通财经APP获悉，美图公司(01357)涨近3%，截至发稿，涨2.74%，报4.88港元，成交额9258.87万港 元。 中金发布研报称，近期，该行邀请美图管理层在2H24业绩后与投资 ...

智通财经APP获悉，中金发布研报称，考虑到付费用户增长好于预期，上调美图公司(01357)25年收入预 测2%至43亿元，考虑到收入结构占比变化，维持经调整净利润预测8.5亿元;考虑到订阅业务增长好于预 期，且有望带动毛利率提升，以及经营杠杆释放，上调26年收入和经调整净利润7%和13%至50和11亿 元。维持"跑赢行业"评级，给予31倍/24倍25和26年Non-IFRS P/E，维持目标价6.3港元。 中金主要观点如下： 近期，该行邀请美图管理层在2H24业绩后与投资人进行非交易性路演，公司分享了近期核心产品运营 情况，以及对长期业务发展的展望。该行预计25年订阅收入同增40%以上，系付费率和用户增长双轮驱 动： 1)国内生活类场景付费渗透好于预期 2)海外生活类场景用户规模增长加速 根据SensorTower，1Q以来，定位欧美日韩市场的Airbrush、BeautyPlus MAU较为稳定;AI换装等功能在 东南亚出圈，带动海外版Wink、美颜相机MAU环比大幅增长。受益于较高付费意愿和高级产品定位， 公司预计截至24年Airbrush付费率远高于国内，而其他出海产品还在积极扩张新市场阶段，短期尚未激 ...