刘熹 国海证券计算机分析师: 那下面的话，会议就正式开始。那首先的话，还是想请这个云赛的张总先做一个开场，然 后后面再请武博士，再做，结合这个 PPT 再做一个分享。好，下面有请张总。 云杉智联董秘张欣欣: 好，各位投资者，大家晚上好。今天那个是还是年初八，八，在在中国农历那个新年当中 又是马年的那个开始第一天，那么有幸国海证券刘老师安排，今天晚上利用一点时间跟大 家见面。我觉得非常意义，非常有意义的。那么我是银赛智联董秘张欣欣，那么银赛智联 大家应该各位大概应该都有所了解。那么它现在的那个主要是一一家信息服务业企业，主 要业务有三三块，一个是云服务大数据，第二个是解决方案，第三个是智能产品。然后云 服务大数据板块，里面包括一个是云服务，一个是数据要素，数据治理，那么解决方案主 要做城市安全治理和和那个民生，包括医疗、教育，很多信息化服务。 那么还有一块就是智能产品智能产品。那么目前应该说我们那个银盛智联各块业务，就是 运营比，很正常。那个应该说我们目前还在对 25 年的那个年报的数据还在审计，那么应 该很快吧，大概还有一个月。到 3 月底的时候，我们会公布年报。那么应该说还不错的， 还不错的，因为整个 25 ...

Core Insights - Anthropic is expected to pay at least $80 billion to Amazon, Google, and Microsoft by 2029 for running its Claude AI model on their cloud platforms [1] - The cloud service providers will also earn revenue shares from Anthropic's AI sales, which is projected to grow significantly over the next few years [1] Group 1 - Anthropic's AI sales revenue share to cloud providers is projected to increase from approximately $1.3 million in 2024 to about $640 million by 2027 [1] - This revenue-sharing mechanism is seen as a key incentive for cloud partners, with Microsoft encouraging its Azure sales team to promote Anthropic's models [1] - The revenue share is expected to account for about 10% of Anthropic's total projected revenue in the coming years, indicating a significant financial impact [1] Group 2 - Anthropic is required to share about 50% of its gross profit from AI sales through Amazon Web Services (AWS) [2] - The management believes that collaborating with all three major cloud providers gives them a competitive edge in reaching enterprise customers compared to OpenAI [2] - Anthropic anticipates that its model training expenses could reach as high as $100 billion by 2029, highlighting the increasing costs associated with cloud computing and chip expenses for generative AI [2]

Core Viewpoint - Concerns over excessive AI spending have led to significant stock declines among the "Seven Giants," particularly Amazon, which is facing fears of becoming the first cloud giant with negative free cash flow by 2026 [1][2]. Group 1: Amazon's Stock Performance - Amazon's stock has fallen for nine consecutive trading days, marking its longest losing streak since 2006 and officially entering a technical bear market, down nearly 23% from its historical closing price of $254 on November 3 [2]. - The company's substantial AI investment plans have not been well-received by investors, leading to skepticism about the alignment of its AI strategy with cloud business growth [2][3]. Group 2: AI Capital Expenditure - Amazon, along with Microsoft, Meta, and Google, is projected to spend a total of $650 billion on AI capital expenditures by 2026, with Amazon's share being $200 billion, the highest among global cloud service giants [2]. - This unexpected capital expenditure has overshadowed Amazon Web Services' (AWS) impressive 24% growth in the fourth quarter, raising concerns that such large investments could result in negative free cash flow [2]. Group 3: Analyst Perspectives - Some analysts believe that the market's pessimism towards Amazon is overblown, arguing that the company is not becoming more capital-intensive but is instead investing in future cloud computing capabilities to drive digital transformation [3]. - Analysts from Deutsche Bank and William Blair acknowledge the risks associated with increased capital spending but suggest that it may reflect Amazon's inherent advantages in upgrading its existing AWS infrastructure [3]. Group 4: Support for Amazon - Notable investors, such as Bill Ackman's Pershing Square Capital, have disclosed holdings in Amazon, indicating confidence in the company's long-term prospects despite current market challenges [4]. - The fund's report highlights expectations for AWS to double its data center capacity by 2027, driven by demand from AI inference business expansion [4]. Group 5: Market Trends and Comparisons - The recent sell-off in tech stocks has highlighted a divergence in performance among the "Seven Giants," with concerns about AI spending impacting companies like Amazon, Microsoft, and Meta more severely than others like Google [5][6]. - The upcoming earnings report from Nvidia is anticipated to be a key catalyst for the AI sector, potentially revealing whether the AI boom is cooling and if Nvidia can deliver substantial returns on its large customer investments [6].

Core Viewpoint - Amazon's stock has experienced a nine-day consecutive decline, marking the longest losing streak in nearly 20 years [2]. Group 1: Stock Performance - Amazon's stock price fell to $198.79, down over 23% from recent highs, officially entering a bear market on Thursday [5]. - Following Amazon, Meta is at risk of becoming the next member of the Mag7 to enter a bear market, having dropped 19.6% from its peak, just 0.4% away from the 20% threshold [7]. - Microsoft was the first Mag7 member to enter a bear market, with its stock down 27.8% from recent highs [7]. Group 2: AI Spending Concerns - Investors have shown strong resistance to the aggressive AI spending plans of tech giants, leading to significant declines in these stocks [4]. - Amazon plans to have the highest capital expenditure among the four major cloud service providers, reaching $200 billion by 2026 [6]. - The total expected capital expenditure in AI for Amazon, Microsoft, Meta, and Alphabet by 2026 is projected to be $650 billion [7]. Group 3: Market Dynamics - There is a noticeable rotation among Mag7 members, highlighting increasing divergence among them [9]. - Since last fall, investors have shifted away from OpenAI-related trades associated with Microsoft, Nvidia, and Oracle, favoring Alphabet and Broadcom instead [10]. - Alphabet's vertically integrated tech stack has somewhat mitigated concerns over excessive spending, allowing it to avoid the worst impacts of the tech stock sell-off [10][11]. Group 4: Financial Implications - Increased capital expenditure for Amazon may lead to negative free cash flow this year, necessitating the company to enter the debt market for additional capital [13]. - The next significant catalyst for AI trades is expected to be Nvidia's earnings report on February 25, which will indicate whether the AI boom is cooling or if Nvidia has successfully captured substantial investments from its largest clients [14].

Group 1 - Amazon's stock has entered a technical bear market after falling for eight consecutive trading days, marking it as the second company in the Mag7 to do so, with a closing price of $199.60, down 21.4% from recent highs [1] - Amazon is projected to have the highest capital expenditure among major cloud service providers, with plans to spend $200 billion by 2026, contributing to concerns over AI spending and investor confidence [1] - Meta is at risk of becoming the next Mag7 member to enter a bear market, with its stock only 2.3% away from the bear market threshold, despite exceeding revenue and earnings expectations in Q4 [1] Group 2 - Investors are rotating within the Mag7, highlighting a growing divergence among its members, with a shift away from Microsoft, Nvidia, and Oracle towards Alphabet and Broadcom [3] - Alphabet's vertically integrated technology stack has helped mitigate concerns over excessive spending, resulting in a smaller decline of 9.2% from recent highs [3] - Increased AI spending by Amazon, Microsoft, and Meta has raised doubts about their ability to generate sufficient returns, with Amazon potentially facing negative free cash flow this year [4] Group 3 - The next significant catalyst for AI investments is expected to be Nvidia's earnings report on February 25, which will indicate whether the AI boom is cooling or if Nvidia has successfully captured substantial investments from its largest clients [4]

2月2日，步入2026年1月底，全球金融市场在高位运行中展现出明显的不安情绪，多项核心资产录得罕 见的剧烈波动。RadexMarkets瑞德克斯表示，昨日黄金市场表现惊心动魄，价格一度冲至约5600美元/ 盎司的历史新高，但随后爆发的剧烈震荡令大量多头仓位瞬间洗出。这种极端的波动性预示着高位获利 盘的离场意愿正在增强，市场不确定性显著上升。 在贵金属整体走势岌岌可危的背景下，白银也未能幸免。RadexMarkets瑞德克斯表示，白银在创下120 美元/盎司的历史高点后，目前已跌至108美元/盎司的阶段性低点。与此同时，铂金与钯金均下挫约 6%，甚至连此前表现强劲的铜价也在周四暴涨后回归理性水平。这种全线回撤的态势反映出大宗商品 市场正经历深刻的估值重塑。 加密货币市场同样陷入了缺乏动能的僵局。RadexMarkets瑞德克斯表示，比特币今晨一度下探至81000 美元，整体氛围持续低迷。受此影响，持有大量比特币头寸的MicroStrategy（MSTR）遭遇重创，股价 昨日大跌近10%，收于143美元。自去年夏天以来，该公司股价已累计下跌约70%，显示出数字资产相 关标的在下行周期中的脆弱性。 不过，政策层面的 ...

Macro and Strategy - In 2025, China's economy is expected to achieve a growth rate of 5.0%, showing a "high first, low later" trend, with a significant inverse relationship between GDP growth and price performance [8][9] - The structural transformation in 2025 is positive, with a decline in the growth rate of the secondary industry and an increase in the tertiary industry, which helps alleviate excess supply pressure and supports domestic demand through service sector development [8][9] - The overall domestic demand remains at a historically low level, with insufficient internal demand being a major bottleneck in the economic cycle [8][9] Chemical Industry - The phosphate chemical industry is characterized by a tight supply-demand balance, with the wet-process phosphoric acid being the core preparation route, gradually replacing the energy-intensive thermal process [28][29] - Domestic phosphate rock supply is tightening due to strict environmental regulations, leading to a significant reduction in outdated production capacity [28][29] - The demand for phosphate rock is expected to remain robust, with the gross profit margin for leading enterprises around 80%, while the share of wet-process phosphoric acid consumption is projected to increase significantly by 2024 [29][30] Electronic Industry - The LCD panel industry has seen an increase in prices, with the panel index rising by 11.55% since December 2025, outperforming major stock indices [31][32] - The global revenue for large-sized LCD panels in December reached $6.423 billion, with a month-on-month growth of 15.52% [32] - Price increases for various sizes of LCD TV panels are expected to continue into February, driven by strong demand from television brands [33] Agricultural Industry - The price of live pigs is expected to continue rising, supported by the "anti-involution" policy, with the price recorded at 12.87 yuan/kg as of January 23, 2026 [36] - The supply of white chickens has slightly increased, with a focus on seasonal consumption recovery, while the price of yellow chickens is expected to benefit from improved domestic demand [36]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Microsoft is "Outperform" [5] Core Insights - Microsoft reported a strong overall performance in FY26Q2, with total revenue of $81.3 billion (up 17% YoY), operating profit of $38.3 billion (up 21% YoY), and net profit of $35.4 billion (up 47% YoY) [1][9] - Azure cloud growth is showing signs of marginal slowdown, with guidance for next quarter's capital expenditure expected to decrease sequentially [2][3] - The company is prioritizing resource allocation towards internal AI products like Copilot rather than cloud business, raising concerns about returns [2] - Microsoft cloud revenue surpassed $50 billion for the first time, with Azure growing 39% YoY, and commercial bookings increasing by 228% [2][6] - The productivity and business processes segment saw revenue of $34.1 billion (up 16% YoY), driven by M365 Copilot and E5 [7] - Capital expenditures reached a record high of $37.5 billion (up 66% YoY), with guidance indicating a sequential decline in FY26Q3 [8] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - Total revenue for the quarter was $81.3 billion, with a breakdown of $34.1 billion from productivity and business processes (up 16% YoY), $32.9 billion from intelligent cloud (up 29% YoY), and $14.3 billion from personal computing (down 3% YoY) [1][10] Business Segments - Intelligent Cloud: Revenue of $32.9 billion (up 29% YoY), with Azure growing 39% YoY, exceeding guidance of 37% [10] - Productivity and Business Processes: Revenue of $34.1 billion (up 16% YoY), with M365 commercial cloud revenue growing 17% YoY [7] - Personal Computing: Revenue of $14.3 billion (down 3% YoY), with mixed performance across segments [10] Capital Expenditure and Guidance - Capital expenditures for the quarter were $37.5 billion, with a significant portion allocated to short-term assets like GPUs and CPUs [8] - Guidance for FY26Q3 indicates a sequential decline in capital expenditures due to normal fluctuations in cloud infrastructure construction [8] Future Outlook - Revenue projections for the next quarter include intelligent cloud revenue of $34.1-34.4 billion (up 27%-28% YoY) and productivity and business revenue of $34.25-34.55 billion (up 15%-16% YoY) [3]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Microsoft is "Outperform" [5] Core Insights - Microsoft reported a strong overall performance in FY26Q2, with total revenue of $81.3 billion (up 17% YoY), operating profit of $38.3 billion (up 21% YoY), and net profit of $35.4 billion (up 47% YoY) [1][9] - Azure cloud growth is showing signs of marginal slowdown, with guidance for next quarter's capital expenditure expected to decrease sequentially [2][3] - The company is prioritizing resource allocation towards internal AI products like Copilot rather than cloud business, raising concerns about returns [2] - Microsoft cloud revenue surpassed $50 billion for the first time, with Azure growing 39% YoY, and commercial bookings increasing by 228% [2][6] - The productivity and business processes segment saw revenue of $34.1 billion (up 16% YoY), driven by M365 Copilot and E5 [7] - Capital expenditures reached a record high of $37.5 billion (up 66% YoY), with guidance indicating a sequential decline in FY26Q3 [8] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - Total revenue for the quarter was $81.3 billion, with a breakdown of $34.1 billion from productivity and business processes (up 16% YoY), $32.9 billion from intelligent cloud (up 29% YoY), and $14.3 billion from personal computing (down 3% YoY) [1][10] Business Segments - Intelligent Cloud: Revenue of $32.9 billion (up 29% YoY), with Azure growing 39% YoY, exceeding guidance of 37% [10] - Productivity and Business Processes: Revenue of $34.1 billion (up 16% YoY), with M365 commercial cloud revenue growing 17% YoY [7] - Personal Computing: Revenue of $14.3 billion (down 3% YoY), with mixed performance across segments [10] Future Outlook - Revenue guidance for the next quarter includes intelligent cloud revenue of $34.1-34.4 billion (up 27%-28% YoY) and productivity and business processes revenue of $34.25-34.55 billion (up 15%-16% YoY) [3] - Operating expenses are expected to be $17.8-17.9 billion, with cost of goods sold projected at $26.65-26.85 billion [3] Valuation Adjustments - Revenue forecasts for FY26-28 have been adjusted to $327.8 billion, $373.9 billion, and $433.2 billion respectively, with net profit estimates revised to $123 billion, $146.5 billion, and $172.1 billion [3]

Core Viewpoint - Microsoft's quarterly revenue slightly exceeded expectations, but the significant growth in its cloud computing business disappointed investors seeking higher returns, leading to a more than 7% drop in its stock price in after-hours trading [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - Microsoft's Azure cloud division reported a revenue growth of 39% in the second fiscal quarter, surpassing the market expectation of 38.8% [1] Group 2: Competitive Landscape - Microsoft has maintained a first-mover advantage in the AI race among major tech companies due to its early investment in OpenAI, which supports many of its products, including M365 Copilot [1] - The recent launch of Google's Gemini model and the release of autonomous agents like Anthropic's Claude Cowork pose risks to Microsoft's AI business and its long-standing software products [1] Group 3: Investor Sentiment - Ongoing investor skepticism regarding whether large tech companies can deliver sufficient returns to justify their investments in AI has put pressure on Microsoft's stock price [1]