近日，Ed Yardeni分享了他对2026年股票、债券和黄金市场的展望，并剖析了未来一年可能影响这些资产类别的关键驱动因素。 Yardeni认为我们正处于"咆哮的2020年代"。基于每股收益（EPS）预计在2027年达到350美元，标普500指数有望在2026年底冲向 7700点，并最终在本十年末挑战10000点大关。与此同时，黄金长期目标同样看至10000美元，而白银等贵金属受工业需求驱动也 将同步走强。 Yardeni表示，AI领域已从垄断走向"军备竞赛"，竞争加剧正收窄科技巨头的护城河。市场逻辑正在发生深刻转变：投资重点将从 AI技术的生产者（七巨头）扩散至AI技术的使用者，后者通过AI提升利润率的潜力巨大。 以下为要点总结： 以下为Yardeni播客全文： 美股盈利驱动力正从AI"生产者"转向"使用者" 大家好，我是Ed Yardeni。今天是 12 月 22 日，我想大家应该都在为圣诞节做准备了。希望大家度过了一个愉快的光明节，新年 也马上就要到了。我和妻子决定今年就在家过节，就不去机场和大家人挤人了。顺便说一下，今天天气不错，阳光明媚。虽然有 些冷——毕竟是冬天嘛——但没下雪。前几天倒是下了一些 ...

Core Insights - Google has gained significant momentum in the AI race with the recent release of Gemini 3, challenging OpenAI's ChatGPT as the leader in the space [1][2] - Analysts predict that Google will be the best-performing stock among the "Magnificent Seven" in 2026, indicating strong future growth potential [2] Company Positioning - Google is leveraging its existing platforms such as Android, Chrome, and its advertising business to enhance the distribution and monetization of its AI models [4][6] - Unlike OpenAI, which is not currently cash flow positive despite substantial revenue, Google benefits from multiple revenue streams, including Google Cloud and YouTube [6][7] Competitive Landscape - OpenAI is expected to continue innovating and improving its models, indicating a competitive environment where Google currently holds an advantage but may not maintain it indefinitely [3][9] - Google has also achieved legal victories in antitrust cases, allowing it to retain its Chrome browser and continue partnerships for search distribution, further solidifying its market position [8] Technological Advancements - Google's advancements in AI, including the development of Gemini 3, position it as a leader in the technology behind transformer models, which are crucial for AI applications [7] - The company is also expanding its capabilities in autonomous driving through initiatives like Whimo, indicating a broader strategy beyond AI [9]

Bigger, faster, better: bigger total addressable market, faster growth, better unit economics. We made 50 investments last year across 25 countries, and we expect to do more this year, so we’re seeing founders at very different stages and in very different markets. The strongest founders aren’t just showing what they’ve built so far — they’re helping investors understand where the business is going next. Real revenue and real customers still matter, but they’re not sufficient on their own. As an investor, I ...

Core Insights - Adobe and Alphabet are integrating artificial intelligence into their core products, enhancing their market presence among business, creative, and marketing professionals [1] - Investments in AI solutions are projected to generate a cumulative global impact of $22.3 trillion by 2030, representing approximately 3.7% of global GDP, which is favorable for both companies' stock performance [2] Adobe Insights - Adobe is experiencing strong demand for its AI-powered products, including Creative Cloud Pro and Acrobat, and aims for a 10.2% annual recurring revenue growth by fiscal 2026 [2] - The company is enhancing its marketing capabilities through the Adobe Experience platform and has made strategic acquisitions, such as Semrush, to bolster its AI-driven customer experience solutions [3] - For fiscal 2025, Adobe anticipates total revenues between $25.9 billion and $26.1 billion, with subscription revenues from Business Professionals and Consumers projected at $7.35 billion to $7.4 billion, and Creative and Marketing Professionals at $17.75 billion to $17.9 billion [4] Alphabet Insights - Alphabet is embedding AI into its Search and Google Cloud services, with the launch of Gemini 3 enhancing user experience and ad performance [5][7] - The Google Cloud Platform is seeing robust demand for enterprise AI infrastructure, with revenues from products developed on Google's Gen AI models increasing over 200% year-over-year in Q3 2025 [6] - Alphabet's capital expenditures are expected to rise significantly, with projections between $91 billion and $93 billion for 2025, up from a previous estimate of $85 billion [8] Earnings and Stock Performance - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Alphabet's 2025 earnings is $10.58 per share, indicating a 31.6% increase from 2024, while Adobe's estimate has declined to $23.44 per share, suggesting 12% growth [9][10] - Both companies have consistently beaten earnings estimates, but Alphabet's average surprise of 18.74% outperforms Adobe's 2.25% [11] - Over the past year, Alphabet's stock has surged 63%, while Adobe's stock has decreased by 20.9%, indicating diverging investor sentiment [12] Valuation Insights - Both companies are considered overvalued, with Alphabet trading at a forward price/sales ratio of 9.79X compared to Adobe's 5.65X [15] - Currently, both Adobe and Alphabet hold a Zacks Rank of 3 (Hold) [18]

以下文章来源于科创板日报 ，作者科创板日报 更多热词不再一一赘述，相信"重磅事件"和"最佳主角提名"已经是对各自最好的注解。回顾这些热词，于我们而言亦是一种复盘，希望我们 的一篇篇报道能够成为您投资道路上的风向标。提前祝您新年快乐，投资顺利！ 科创板日报 ·十大科技热词 3 颁奖词 "寒王"欲与茅台试比高 让数据中心跳动一颗"中国芯" 最佳主角提名 重磅事件 寒武纪 摩尔线程 英伟达违反中国反垄断 科创板日报 . 专注科创板和科技创新，上海报业集团主管主办，界面财联社出品。 今年的十大科技热词，和人工智能相关的占据一半以上 ，这并非源自于我们的偏好，而是AI产业整体繁荣的必然结果。2025年的海内外科 技行情依然精彩纷呈，AI作为当之无愧的主线，在一次次质疑中不断抬高价值中枢，也派生出了诸多分支概念。 年初，美国提出星际之门计划，而国内这边Deepseek R1模型横空出世。"力大砖飞"还是"巧构提效"？一时间，市场开始重新审视AI发展 的更多路径可能。同时，全世界也对中国的科技竞争力有了一次重新的审视。 4月初，中美贸易前景承压，A股海外算力产业链遭遇至暗时刻；10月，OpenAI、英伟达、甲骨文实现深度绑 ...

来源：钛媒体 12月20日，在钛媒体2025 T-EDGE全球对话中，钛媒体集团创始人、Barron's中国出版人「赵何娟 Talk」（Jany Talk）与硅谷资深投资人、企业家王维嘉先 生展开了一场深度对话。 两年前，ChatGPT风靡全球时，我们曾与王维嘉深入探讨AI的未来。两年后的今天，当Google Gemini 3掀起新一轮技术竞赛、华尔街开始质疑AI泡沫、扎克 伯格开出天价年薪抢人时，我们再次坐下来，拨开喧嚣，回答那些真正重要的问题： 模型竞争的终局是什么？哪些应用会率先落地？人类与机器的边界在哪里？未来一到三年，什么才是真正值得关注的变化？ 以下为本次对话核心观点摘录： 1、OpenAI不会轻易出局，未来是交替领先的动态格局。只要各家公司使用相同的Transformer架构和技术路径，差距就不会是不可逾越的，未来将是"你六 个月超越我，我再六个月超越你"的持续迭代，不会突然出现某一家遥遥领先、无人可及的局面。 2、当前对英伟达的主要挑战在于，各大科技公司纷纷开始自研AI芯片，如果未来每家公司都能开发出成本更低、效率更高、易用性更好的芯片，其将面临 被替代的风险。未来云服务市场越集中，对其越不利 ...

2025 年底，大模型行业的"年终决战"正式打响，各家纷纷亮出压箱底的杀手锏，就在这场激烈角逐中，Gemini 3 以绝对王者之姿强势突围，一登场就刷 新了行业的认知边界。 11 月 18 日，Gemini 3 直接"横扫"多项权威基准测试，以"世界最强多模态理解""交互最深智能体""推理怪兽"的姿态，强势碾压全球所有同类模型。谷歌 CEO 桑达尔·皮查伊亲自为其站台，直言这是"迄今为止最智能的模型"。消息一出，整个 AI 圈瞬间沸腾，所有人都在追问：Gemini 3 的强悍，到底藏着什 么秘诀？ 答案在发布当天就有了初步线索。Google DeepMind 研究与深度学习副总裁 Oriol Vinyals 直接在推特上"剧透"："Gemini 3 这么强，核心秘诀就两点：更 好的预训练，更好的后训练。"这番直白的表态，让"预训练"与"后训练"瞬间成为行业热议的核心话题。 | Description | Description | | Colorded 3-Per | Garried 2.5-Fre. | Claude Sawat 4.5 GPT-5.8 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- ...

黄仁勋、埃隆·马斯克、拉里·佩奇。图片来源：Nordin Catic/Getty Images, Francis Chung/Bloomberg, C Flanigan/Getty Images 2025年，全球多数亿万富豪都赚得盆满钵满，而这十人更是全年领跑，收获最为丰厚。 埃隆·马斯克冲击万亿美元身家已不再是纸上谈兵。 年初时，他的身家为4210亿美元，到了10月，他成为史上首位身家突破5000亿美元的人。随后，火箭制造商太空探索技术公司（SpaceX）启动股份出售 计划，估值达到约8000亿美元，马斯克又成为史上第一个身家冲上6000亿美元的人。紧接着，特拉华州一家法院裁定，马斯克可保留此前作废的特斯拉巨 额股票期权奖励，这又让他在上周五成为全球首位身家超7000亿美元的人。随着年末临近，截至12月22日，马斯克的身家已高达7540亿美元。 马斯克堪称今年的最大赢家，全年身家增长超3330亿美元，相当于日增9.35亿美元。这一增幅不仅在全球亿万富豪中首屈一指，甚至超过了其他任何一位 富豪的身家数字。目前全球第二富有的是谷歌联合创始人拉里·佩奇，身家为2550亿美元。 不过，过去一年财富大幅增长的富豪绝非 ...

作者 | 高允毅 2025 年底，大模型行业的"年终决战"正式打响，各家纷纷亮出压箱底的杀手锏，就在这场激烈角逐中，Gemini 3 以绝对王者 之姿强势突围，一登场就刷新了行业的认知边界。 11 月 18 日，Gemini 3 直接"横扫"多项权威基准测试，以"世界最强多模态理解""交互最深智能体""推理怪兽"的姿态，强势碾压 全球所有同类模型。谷歌 CEO 桑达尔·皮查伊亲自为其站台，直言这是"迄今为止最智能的模型"。消息一出，整个 AI 圈瞬间沸 腾，所有人都在追问：Gemini 3 的强悍，到底藏着什么秘诀？ 答案在发布当天就有了初步线索。Google DeepMind 研究与深度学习副总裁 Oriol Vinyals 直接在推特上"剧透"： "Gemini 3 这么强，核心秘诀就两点：更好的预训练，更好的后训练。 "这番直白的表态，让"预训练"与"后训练"瞬间成为行业热议的核心 话题。 作为从强化学习转向表征学习的资深研究者，Sebastian Borgeaud 的预训练功底堪称深厚：从 Transformer 架构，到 BERT、 XLNet，再到 DeepMind 第一篇大语言模型论文 Goph ...

Core Insights - The AI industry is experiencing significant growth, but there is a stark income disparity, with Nvidia capturing nearly 90% of market profits, leading to concerns about the sustainability of the ecosystem [3][4] - The global AI application market is projected to see substantial increases in spending, with enterprise GenAI expenditures expected to rise from $11.5 billion in 2024 to $37 billion in 2025, marking a year-on-year growth of approximately 320% [3] - The commercialization of AI applications has formed a clear hierarchy, with general large models leading the first tier, while vertical applications are rapidly gaining traction in specific sectors [5][6] Group 1: Market Dynamics - The AI application market is not as dire as perceived, with significant growth in consumer spending on applications like ChatGPT, which is expected to reach $2.48 billion in 2025, up from $487 million in 2024, representing a 408% increase [4] - The first tier of commercial applications is dominated by general large models, with OpenAI leading at an annual recurring revenue (ARR) of $10 billion and a projected compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 260% from 2023 to 2025 [5] - Chinese applications are currently positioned in the second tier, with ARR between 100 million and 1 billion yuan, focusing on vertical applications that demonstrate clear cost reduction benefits [5][8] Group 2: Application Development - Over 200 AI applications have been launched between July and November, with a significant focus on vertical applications that address specific user needs, such as AI image processing and efficiency tools [6] - In the global top 50 generative AI apps, 22 are developed by Chinese teams, indicating that Chinese applications are competitive, although there remains a significant income gap compared to the U.S. market [8] - The cost of producing AI dynamic animations has drastically decreased, with production costs now ranging from 50,000 to 100,000 yuan, only 10% to 30% of traditional methods [17] Group 3: Challenges and Opportunities - Quality remains a major bottleneck for AI applications, with 33% of respondents identifying it as the primary challenge, particularly in terms of accuracy and consistency of output [11][13] - The current landscape shows that AI applications are primarily limited to high-cost scenarios like programming and customer service, with significant cost-saving potential but insufficient revenue generation [14] - The AI industry is moving towards a phase where understanding AI's application in business is crucial, as evidenced by the rising interest in AI-driven content creation, particularly in the animation sector [16][19]