傅里叶的猫 . 芯片EDA大厂资深工程师，半导体AI行业解读及研报分享 这篇文章来看下Morgan Stanley 的一份研报，在报告中，提到由于美国的出口管制，中国的HBM技术差 距正在缩小，长鑫存储的目标是在 2027 年生产 HBM3/3E。在这份研报中，大摩还给出了长鑫存储 （CXMT）产能和生产计划。 正文 MS认为，中国目前在HBM3 技术发展上落后全球领先者 3-4 年，这一差距应能通过中国在 AI 芯片生产 规模上的能力得到弥补。与此同时，DRAM 技术取得显著进步，且中国在hybrid bonding封装时代已占 据强势地位。基于长鑫存储（CXMT）进入 1z nm 时代的 DDR5 生产情况，其与市场领先者的 DRAM 技术差距也从 5 年缩短至 3 年。 游戏 GPU 可能取代 HBM，这是填补 AI 推理领域差距的新替代方案。根据MS的渠道调查，在美国实 施新出口限制之前，配备 HBM3 的 H20 GPU 一直是中国市场最受追捧的加速器。我们认为，英伟达新 推出的降级替代产品可能会采用 96GB GDDR7，且不含 CoWoS 和 HBM。如果我们假设今年出货量为 100 万台，这意 ...

2025 年 5 月 26 日，大摩发布亚洲科技报告《Tech Bytes - 中国 HBM 差距缩小》指出， 中国在存储器领域的进步正在迅速推进，不仅在 DRAM 技术发展 上缩小与全球领先者的差距，高带宽存储器（HBM）技术也日益先进 。其目标是在 2027 年生产 HBM3/3E。近期改良版 H20 图形 GPU 的进展可能缩短 产品上市时间差。 差距缩小 ：大摩认为， 中国在 HBM3 技术发展上目前落后全球领先者 3-4 年， 这一差距需要通过提升本土 AI 芯片生产能力来弥补。与此同时 ，中国在 DRAM 技术上显著进步 ，且 在混合键合封装时代已占据强势地位 。根据长鑫存储（CXMT）进入 1z nm 工艺生产 DDR5 的情况，其 DRAM 技术差距已 从 5 年缩短至 3 年。 游戏 GPU 可能替代 HBM—— 填补 AI 推理差距的新选择 ：根据大摩的渠道调研，在新的美国出口限制之前，配备 HBM3 的 H20 GPU 曾是中国市场最 受追捧的加速器，主要用于中端计算和推理需求。 大摩认为，英伟达新推出的降级替代产品可能采用 GDDR7，不含先进封装技术（CoWoS）和 HBM ， 这意 ...

Group 1: Nvidia Developments - CEO Jensen Huang plans to sell up to 6 million shares of Nvidia stock, while CFO Colette Kress intends to sell up to 500,000 shares [1] - Nvidia expects an $8 billion revenue loss in Q2 due to U.S. government export restrictions affecting H20 GPU sales to China, with Q1 revenue confirmed at $4.6 billion before the ban [1] Group 2: AI and Robotics Investments - Zhiyuan Robotics has secured a new round of investment led by Shanghai State-owned Capital Fund, setting a record for cumulative financing in China's embodied intelligence sector [3] - The launch of Kuaishou's new AI model 2.1 series demonstrates high cost-effectiveness and industry-leading generation speed, with 5-second video generation in high-quality mode taking less than 1 minute [2][3] Group 3: Corporate Changes and Developments - Yushu Technology has changed its name to Yushu Technology Co., Ltd., continuing all existing operations and contracts under the new name [5] - Boston Scientific has announced its exit from the global heart valve business due to stricter regulatory requirements for clinical trial data [6] Group 4: Automotive Industry Updates - Nezha Auto's logo was removed from its Shanghai headquarters amid reports of wage disputes and financial difficulties [7] - Nezha Auto's debt-to-equity swap plan has failed, with total debts to suppliers around 6 billion yuan, and investors requiring a significant debt reduction before providing new funding [8] Group 5: Dell Technologies Performance - Dell Technologies reported Q1 net revenue of $23.38 billion, exceeding analyst expectations, and projected Q2 revenue between $28.5 billion and $29.5 billion [8]

J P M O R G A N North America Equity Research 29 May 2025 NVIDIA Corporation Solid Results/Guide Despite China Restrictions; Blackwell Production/Deployment Ramp Progressing Well; Readying GB300 Ramp This Qtr; Reit OW NVIDIA reported solid Apr-Qtr revenues of $44B (above ours/consensus estimates of $43B) even with ~$2.5B of lost H20 China GPU shipments due to China restrictions (restrictions to China went into effect on April 9th) while margins/EPS were impacted by the $4.5B of H20 inventory write-downs/pur ...

Following Nvidia‘s blockbuster Q1 earnings, Wall Street analysts across the board are adjusting their price targets and outlooks for the AI chip giant. While some raised their targets modestly, others issued strong upward revisions, citing booming demand for Blackwell GPUs, rapid ramp-up in hyperscaler spending, and improving margins.Bank of America reiterated its Buy rating, bumping its price target from $160 to $180. Analysts were encouraged by Nvidia’s derisking in China, a sharp ramp-up in Blackwell rac ...

NVIDIA (NVDA) Q1 2026 Earnings Call May 28, 2025 05:00 PM ET Company Participants Toshiya Hari - VP of Investor Relations & Strategic FinanceColette Kress - EVP & CFOJensen Huang - Founder, President and CEOJoseph Moore - Managing DirectorVivek Arya - Managing DirectorCJ Muse - Senior Managing DirectorBen Reitzes - Managing Director – Head of Technology ResearchTimothy Arcuri - Managing DirectorJake Wilhelm - Vice President Operator Good afternoon. My name is Sarah, and I will be your conference operator to ...

Core Viewpoint - Nvidia has significantly benefited from the AI boom, with its stock rising over 800% since January 2023, and the recent decision by the Trump administration to rescind the AI Diffusion framework may further enhance its share price appreciation [1][6]. Group 1: AI Diffusion Framework - The Commerce Department rescinded the AI Diffusion framework, which was initially announced during the Biden administration and aimed to limit the sale of advanced semiconductors to various countries [3][6]. - The AI Diffusion framework categorized countries into three tiers based on their access to U.S. technology, with first-tier countries having unlimited access, second-tier countries facing restrictions, and third-tier countries being completely prohibited from importing advanced AI chips [4][5]. Group 2: Nvidia's Strategic Moves - Nvidia has recently formed AI infrastructure partnerships with Saudi Arabian companies, which would have been complicated under the previous AI Diffusion framework [7]. - The collaboration with Saudi company Humain involves building AI data centers using 18,000 Nvidia Grace Blackwell superchips and deploying Nvidia's Omniverse simulation software [8]. - Nvidia will also work with the Saudi Data & AI Authority (SDAIA) to establish a sovereign AI factory, deploying 5,000 Nvidia Blackwell GPUs [9]. Group 3: Market Outlook and Analyst Sentiment - The rescission of the AI Diffusion rules is viewed positively by Nvidia shareholders as it opens new market opportunities in the Middle East, which had previously been overlooked for GPU demand [10]. - Wall Street analysts are optimistic about Nvidia, with 87% of 69 analysts recommending a buy rating and a median target price of $160 per share, indicating an 18% upside from the current price of $135 [11]. - Nvidia's adjusted earnings are projected to increase by 46% over the next four quarters, making its current valuation of 45 times earnings appear reasonable [12].

CloudMatrix384超节点， 重构全球算力竞争格局。 5月13日，美国商务部工业与安全局（BIS）针对华为昇腾AI芯片发布全球禁令，宣称"在世界任何地方使用华为昇腾芯片均违反美国出口管制"，紧接着 又将禁令封锁对象扩大到所有中国其他先进芯片（advanced computing ICs）。 巧合的是，禁令宣布期间，英伟达CEO黄仁勋正与其他美国科技高管随总统一同访问沙特。而在禁令出台同日，英伟达迅速宣布拿下"土豪"沙特阿拉伯国 的1.8万块AI GPU超大订单。 但管制归管制，这么大的中国AI市场，美国似乎又割舍不下。 就在几天前的5月9日，新加坡《联合早报》曝出，虽然中国特供的H20"阉割版"GPU又被禁售，英伟达将很快对H20进行"二次阉割"，其INT8精度算力将 从296TFLOPs降低至不足100TFLOPs，整体性能下降超过60%，以再度卖给中国。 GPU性能下降超过60%，意味着大模型训练成本将成倍飙升。中国，真的还买吗？ 与此同时，面对一再加码的美国半导体出口管制，华为也没闲着。早在今年4月，华为便推出了最新升级的CloudMatrix 384超节点技术。 这项最新技术能够将384张华为 ...

Nvidia (NVDA 4.12%) first reached a market cap of $3 trillion in June 2024. The giant GPU maker remained above the threshold throughout much of the next eight months before a steep sell-off this year. However, Nvidia just rejoined Apple (AAPL -0.28%) and Microsoft (MSFT 0.81%) in the $3 trillion club. Could it even become the first $4 trillion stock by 2026? Bouncing back What did Nvidia do to bounce back? Nothing on its own. To understand the stock's rebound, we need to first understand why it fell in the ...

Core Viewpoint - Nvidia's stock price has increased by 34% since April 6, despite the announcement of needing a license to export its H20 GPU to China, indicating strong market confidence in the company's valuation and future performance [1][3]. Group 1: Stock Performance and Analyst Sentiment - Following the 8-K report, Nvidia's stock experienced a 7% sell-off, but analysts remain optimistic, believing the stock is undervalued compared to its historical performance and peers like AMD [1][3]. - Analysts have reiterated a strong buy rating, projecting that the company's performance at the end of the month will exceed that of the first quarter, despite the export challenges for the H20 GPU [3]. - Since the announcement on April 15, Nvidia's stock has risen by 5%, reflecting positive market sentiment [6]. Group 2: Revenue Projections and Market Dynamics - Analysts estimate that the sale of 1 million H20 GPUs in 2024 could generate $12 billion in revenue, which may contribute to a decline in overall profit margins since these GPUs are priced over 10% lower than Huawei's Ascend 910B [3]. - Major Chinese clients, including ByteDance, Alibaba, and Tencent, ordered over $16 billion worth of H20 chips in the first quarter, suggesting strong demand and potential for exceeding previous sales figures [7]. - Nvidia's stock remains lower than its peers in most valuation ratios, indicating potential for further appreciation [7]. Group 3: Regulatory Environment and Market Conditions - The recent withdrawal of AI diffusion rules by the Trump administration has introduced uncertainty in the U.S. semiconductor industry, which could benefit Nvidia [7]. - The company has previously navigated export restrictions, such as the ban on A100/H100 GPUs to China, by introducing compliant alternatives like the A800/H800 chips [3]. - Analysts are cautious about upcoming semiconductor tariffs, which could impact pricing and profit margins, but customers have not reduced their capital expenditure expectations [12].