2025 年 8 月 24 日 策略研究 3800 点后，继续看多市场 ——策略周专题（2025 年 8 月第 3 期） 要点 本周 A 股市场继续上涨 受风险偏好抬升等因素的影响，本周 A 股市场继续上涨。受政策利好刺激、市 场情绪回暖等因素的影响，A 股市场本周整体继续上行，主要宽基指数普遍上涨。 在主要宽基指数中，本周科创 50 涨幅最大，而上证 50 涨幅最小。 行业方面，通信、电子、综合表现相对较好。分行业来看，本周申万一级行业普 遍出现上涨。通信、电子、综合等行业本周表现相对较好，涨幅分别为 10.8%、 8.9%及 8.2%；相比之下，房地产、煤炭、医药生物等行业涨幅则靠后。 市场有望持续上行，积极做多 近期 A 股表现强势，已经突破去年高点。4 月 8 日以来，国内市场持续上行，并 且不断创下年内新高，在近期上证指数更是突破了去年的高点。在市场上涨的过 程中，整体回撤也相对较小，上证指数最大回撤率仅为 2.48%。截至 8 月 22 日， 上证指数的收盘点位为 3826。 展望未来，我们认为市场仍然有望继续上行。目前来看，支撑股票市场上涨的逻 辑并没有发生变化，市场估值目前也较为合理，并未出现 ...

Group 1: Overseas Technology - Meta is building superintelligence through computing infrastructure and talent reserves, with significant investments in large data centers, including a 1 GW supercomputer cluster in Ohio and a 5 GW cluster in Louisiana expected to be the largest AI data center by 2027 [5] - NVIDIA has resumed sales of the H20 GPU in China, which is expected to eliminate uncertainties in domestic CSP major's Capex, while TSMC has raised its revenue guidance for 2025 to a year-on-year increase of 30% due to strong demand for advanced process chips [6] - The release of GPT's intelligent agents significantly enhances the ability to handle real-world tasks, integrating various capabilities for users, and is now available to OpenAI Pro, Plus, and Team subscribers [7] Group 2: Country Research - Vietnam's production growth in July was 8.5%, with a six-month average of 11%, driven by a 17.7% increase in exports, maintaining high growth for six consecutive months [3][9] - Indonesia's GDP growth in Q2 was 5.1%, a 0.3 percentage point increase from Q1, marking the highest since Q2 2023, supported by investment and foreign trade [3][9] - Thailand's CPI in July was -0.7%, the lowest since February 2024, while Malaysia's industrial production growth slowed to 2.1%, the lowest since February 2024 [3][9] Group 3: Industry Trends - The AI industry is accelerating, with recommendations to invest in AI computing, cloud vendors, AI applications, and major Chinese companies benefiting from the AI cycle, including Tencent, Xiaomi, Meta, and TSMC [4] - The paper industry is experiencing price increases driven by cost pressures, with major players like Nine Dragons Paper raising prices significantly in July and August [22][24] - The construction industry is facing weak demand, with a decline in real estate sales and a drop in new housing transactions in major cities [14][20]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent agreement between NVIDIA and AMD to pay a 15% "toll" to the U.S. government in order to maintain access to the Chinese market, highlighting the importance of this market for both companies [4][6]. Group 1: Market Impact - NVIDIA and AMD's stock prices did not experience significant declines following the announcement, indicating a generally optimistic outlook from Wall Street regarding the deal [6]. - The agreement allows NVIDIA and AMD to retain 85% of their revenue from exports to China, which is crucial for their financial health [6][15]. - The Chinese market is described as a "second granary," emphasizing its critical importance for the survival of both companies [8]. Group 2: Financial Implications - NVIDIA reported a $4.5 billion inventory impairment and related expenses for the first quarter of fiscal year 2026, which accounted for 20.54% of its pre-tax profit [9]. - Prior to the restrictions, NVIDIA's H20 product generated $4.6 billion in sales, and the company missed out on $2.5 billion in revenue due to the sales limitations [9]. - For AMD, the restrictions led to approximately $800 million in inventory and related costs, resulting in a significant drop in its non-GAAP gross margin from 54% to 43.28% year-over-year [11]. Group 3: Competitive Landscape - The article warns that the U.S. government's intervention may lead to performance limitations on the chips exported to China, potentially driving Chinese customers towards local suppliers like Huawei [7][15]. - Both companies face the risk of losing their competitive edge in the Chinese market if they cannot meet local demands effectively [15][16]. - The rapid development of China's AI industry is expected to sustain high demand for chips, making it essential for NVIDIA and AMD to navigate the political landscape carefully [16].

Group 1: AI Industry Trends - The AI industry is accelerating due to the resonance between hardware and application sides, with significant investments in computing infrastructure and talent acquisition by major players like Meta [4] - Meta is investing several hundred billion dollars to build large data centers, including the Prometheus supercomputer cluster in Ohio with a power of 1 GW, set to be operational by 2026, and the Hyperion supercomputer cluster in Louisiana targeting 5 GW by the end of 2027 [4] - Nvidia is resuming sales of the H20 GPU in China, which is expected to eliminate uncertainties in domestic CSP major's Capex and drive the upward trend in computing infrastructure construction [5] Group 2: Economic Trends in Southeast Asia - Vietnam's production growth rate was 8.5% in July, with an average of 11% over the past six months, largely driven by continuous high export growth of 17.7% [11] - Indonesia's GDP growth rate for Q2 was 5.1%, reflecting improvements from investments and foreign trade, while Thailand's CPI fell to -0.7%, indicating a deflationary trend [11] - The U.S. has signed trade agreements with several Southeast Asian countries, reducing tariffs significantly, which may enhance trade relations and economic growth in the region [11] Group 3: Industry Policies - Indonesia is accelerating local production of electric vehicles and adjusting cryptocurrency transaction tax rates, while Thailand is strengthening green manufacturing standards [12] - Vietnam is decentralizing some economic management approval powers and increasing tax incentives for key sectors [12]

Core Viewpoint - Nvidia remains a central player in Wall Street's AI trade, with a strong consensus among analysts recommending it as a "Strong Buy" ahead of its fiscal Q2 earnings on August 27 [1] Group 1: Analyst Expectations - Goldman Sachs raised its price target for Nvidia to $200 from $185, maintaining a buy rating, with expectations for a "clean beat-and-raise quarter" [2] - The focus will be on forward guidance, particularly regarding China's H20 GPU rollout and Blackwell chip adoption in the second half of 2025 [2] - The earnings call is expected to influence Nvidia's long-term growth trajectory, with the next-generation AI chip family, Rubin, identified as a key growth driver [3] Group 2: Stock Performance and Valuation - Nvidia shares closed at $180.77, reflecting a 0.75% increase, continuing a recovery trend after recent pullbacks [4] - Bank of America set a price target of $220, while Mizuho views recent dips as a buying opportunity [4] - The average 12-month price target from analysts is $185.79, indicating a modest 2.78% upside from current levels, with a significant range between the most bullish ($250) and most bearish ($120) targets [5] Group 3: Risks and Opportunities - If Nvidia meets both near-term earnings expectations and long-term product milestones, the stock could approach the upper end of forecasts [7] - Potential risks include guidance issues related to China restrictions or slowing demand from hyperscalers, which could impact investor confidence [7]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the easing of export controls on NVIDIA's H20 GPU to China, highlighting the ongoing demand for AI GPUs in the Chinese market and the potential impact on NVIDIA's inventory and sales strategy [3][4]. Group 1: NVIDIA's H20 GPU and Market Demand - The U.S. has relaxed strict export controls on NVIDIA's H20 GPU designed for the Chinese market, which is part of a broader compromise related to China's rare earth magnet export restrictions [3]. - NVIDIA claims to have received assurances from U.S. officials to obtain necessary authorizations to resume H20 GPU sales to China [4]. - Jefferies estimates that NVIDIA currently has between 600,000 to 900,000 H20 GPUs in inventory, while the demand in China is around 1.8 million units [4]. Group 2: Capital Expenditure Projections - Jefferies has raised its forecast for AI capital expenditure in China by 40% this year to $108 billion, and increased the 2025-2030 forecast by 28% to $806 billion [5]. Group 3: Repair Market for NVIDIA GPUs in China - Due to U.S. sanctions limiting NVIDIA GPU supply, repair shops in China are thriving, focusing on older models like H100 and A100 GPUs [6][7]. - Repair costs for GPUs can reach up to $2,400, with some shops repairing around 500 chips monthly [7]. - Despite the sanctions, the demand for NVIDIA's GPUs remains high in China, as local alternatives like Huawei's products are limited [7].

Group 1 - Trump discusses tariff plans, indicating nearly 200 tariff letters will be sent, with rates potentially set at 10% or 15% [2] - Intel reports worsening net losses in Q2 and announces a restructuring plan, including a 15% workforce reduction and cancellation of a multi-billion dollar investment in Europe [2] - US stock markets see all major indices rise, with the Nasdaq and S&P 500 reaching new highs, while Intel's stock drops over 8% [3][5] Group 2 - The Nasdaq China Golden Dragon Index declines by 0.89%, with NIO rising over 1% and Alibaba and JD.com experiencing minor declines [4] - The China Securities Regulatory Commission emphasizes efforts to stabilize the market and promote long-term capital investment [8] - The State Council announces plans to gradually implement free preschool education, highlighting its importance for long-term development [9] Group 3 - Nvidia receives approval to resume sales of H20 GPUs to China, which is seen as a positive development for Nvidia and its supply chain [19] - The Shanghai stock market experiences a decline, with the index down 0.33%, while the Hong Kong market also sees losses [30][31]

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Company and Industry - **Company**: Alibaba Cloud - **Industry**: Cloud Computing and AI Services Core Insights and Arguments - **Revenue Growth**: Alibaba Cloud expects a revenue growth of 20%-25% year-on-year for FY2025, with total revenue projected at approximately 150 billion RMB [1][5] - **Profit Margin**: The profit margin is anticipated to be between 8%-8.5%, although depreciation and amortization may lead to a slight decline in profit margins [1][5][16] - **AI Cloud Revenue**: In Q2, AI cloud revenue is expected to nearly double year-on-year, reaching between 4 billion to 5 billion RMB, with GPU leasing accounting for 45%-50% of this revenue [1][8] - **Capital Expenditure**: Total capital expenditure for 2025 is expected to exceed 100 billion RMB, with 20-30 billion RMB allocated for overseas operations [4][31] - **Customer Composition**: Approximately 70% of Alibaba Cloud's revenue comes from external customers, with the remaining 30%-32% from internal customers [3] Additional Important Content - **AI Business Growth**: The AI business is expected to see stable growth due to the long project implementation cycles of enterprise clients, with a gradual increase in usage anticipated in the second half of the year [10][11] - **GPU Leasing Margins**: The gross margin for GPU leasing is projected to be between 26%-29%, while AI PaaS and SaaS products have higher margins of 42%-45% and 45%-48%, respectively [1][12] - **Supply Chain Challenges**: Alibaba Cloud plans to procure 150,000 to 200,000 computing cards in 2025, but U.S. restrictions may hinder achieving this target [17][24] - **Market Competition**: The competitive landscape is expected to intensify, with ongoing price wars and a focus on AI services among cloud providers [19][18] - **Stock Levels**: Alibaba Cloud currently has around 140,000 NVIDIA cards in stock, with additional domestic chip inventory [25] Financial Performance Expectations - **Q2 Performance**: Revenue growth for Q2 is projected to be between 19.5%-20.5%, with a quarter-on-quarter growth of 6.5%-7.5% [2] - **Future Orders**: The company is optimistic about maintaining stable growth in the coming quarters, although explosive growth is not anticipated [6][10] Strategic Plans - **Product Mix**: The company plans to increase the proportion of domestic chips in its product mix while continuing to rely on NVIDIA and AMD cards [33][26] - **Cost Control**: Alibaba Cloud is focusing on domestic alternatives and technological iterations to manage costs amid external competition [18] This summary encapsulates the key points discussed in the conference call, highlighting Alibaba Cloud's growth expectations, financial performance, competitive landscape, and strategic initiatives.

Investment Rating - The report gives a "Recommended" rating for the telecommunications industry, considering the sustained high prosperity of the sector driven by AI, 5.5G, and satellite communications [2][5]. Core Insights - The overall market performance for the week (July 14-20, 2025) saw the Shanghai Composite Index rise by 0.69%, the Shenzhen Component Index by 2.04%, and the ChiNext Index by 3.17%. The telecommunications sector, represented by the Shenwan Communications Index, increased by 7.56% [2][10]. - Within the telecommunications sub-sectors, the highest increase was seen in communication network equipment and devices, which rose by 15.82%. Conversely, the communication engineering and services sector experienced a slight decline of -0.14% [12][13]. - Notable individual stock performances included Xinyi Technology with a rise of 39.01%, followed by Zhongji Xuchuang at 24.33% and Shijia Guangzi at 22.43% [14][15]. Summary by Sections Market Overview - The telecommunications sector is experiencing a high growth phase, with significant contributions from AI and advanced communication technologies [2][3]. - The report highlights the strong performance of the telecommunications index and individual stocks, indicating a positive market sentiment [10][12]. Sub-sector Performance - The communication network equipment and devices sub-sector showed the most significant growth, while communication engineering and services faced minor setbacks [12][13]. - The report emphasizes the importance of the computing power supply chain, particularly in hardware segments benefiting from domestic and international demand [3]. Company Announcements - Key announcements from companies in the telecommunications sector include significant earnings forecasts, with some companies like Xinyi Technology expecting a substantial increase in net profit by 327.68% to 385.47% [21][22]. - Other companies, such as Yiwai Communication, are forecasting a decline in earnings due to global economic slowdowns and trade tensions [21][22]. Future Outlook - The report suggests that the demand for computing power will continue to expand, driven by advancements in AI and related technologies, which will positively impact hardware sales and services [4][3]. - The anticipated recovery of H20 GPU sales in the Chinese market is expected to alleviate supply bottlenecks and accelerate data center construction [3][19].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the semiconductor industry [7][32]. Core Insights - The semiconductor index saw a slight increase of 0.42% from July 14 to July 18, 2025, while the broader market indices also experienced gains [10][12]. - The U.S. has relaxed export licenses for AI chips, allowing companies like NVIDIA and AMD to resume shipments to China, which is expected to positively impact the semiconductor market [14][24]. - The report highlights a significant performance improvement among several semiconductor companies, with notable profit growth forecasts for the first half of 2025 [2][11][31]. Summary by Sections Industry Performance - The semiconductor index increased by 0.42% during the specified period, ranking 65th out of 125 secondary industries [10]. - The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index rose to 5732.62 points, with a year-to-date increase of 14.16% [4][17]. Company Performance - **Mid-Micro Company**: Expected H1 2025 net profit growth of 31.61% to 41.28%, with revenue projected at approximately 4.961 billion yuan [2][11]. - **拓荆股份 (Tuojing Co.)**: Anticipated Q2 2025 net profit growth of 235% to 249%, benefiting from domestic substitution trends [2][11]. - **天德钰 (Tiande Yu)**: Expected H1 2025 net profit growth of 50.89% [2][11]. - **炬芯科技 (Juxin Technology)**: Forecasted H1 2025 net profit growth of 122.28% [2][11]. - **士兰微 (Silicon Micro)**: Expected to achieve a net profit of 235 million to 275 million yuan, marking a turnaround [2][11]. Market Trends - The report discusses the "anti-involution" policies in the new energy vehicle sector, which aim to regulate competition and improve cash flow for midstream companies [3][22]. - The demand for AI-related hardware is expected to rise due to the increasing market share of AI applications, driving growth in various semiconductor products [5][32]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies with strong capabilities in self-control and domestic substitution, such as 兆易创新 (Zhaoyi Innovation), 澜起科技 (Lanke Technology), 聚辰股份 (Jucheng Co.), 神工股份 (Shengong Co.), and 龙芯中科 (Loongson Technology) [5][32].