Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate" rating for the humanoid robot industry, indicating a positive outlook for investment opportunities [5]. Core Insights - The humanoid robot industry is driven by "technological deepening" and "scene implementation," with Figure 02's technological breakthrough reflecting the industry's direction. The application scenarios are expanding from industrial to smart home environments [5]. - The report highlights the continuous technological transformation and exploration of application scenarios by domestic and international humanoid robot companies, indicating ongoing industrialization in the humanoid robot sector [5]. Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The report discusses the recent demonstration of Figure 02, which successfully completed the complex task of folding clothes autonomously, showcasing advancements in humanoid robotics [2][5]. Technological Advancements - Figure 02 utilizes the Helix architecture and a new dataset to master the skill of folding clothes, demonstrating significant improvements in its technical capabilities. The robot's ability to handle various fabric types and dynamic variables highlights its advanced environmental perception and motion planning [5]. - The report emphasizes the importance of algorithm optimization and data accumulation in expanding robotic skills, particularly in complex daily tasks [5]. Key Companies and Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on key players in the humanoid robot industry, including: - Joint module manufacturers: Zhongchen Technology, Shuanghuan Transmission, and Landai Technology - Linear actuator manufacturers: Hengli Hydraulic - Motor manufacturers: Mingzhi Electric - Encoder manufacturers: Yap Technology and Fengcai Technology - Dexterous hand and sensor manufacturers: Hanwei Technology and Zhaowei Electromechanical - Structural component manufacturers: Changying Precision [5][6]. Financial Projections - The report includes earnings forecasts for key companies, indicating expected growth in earnings per share (EPS) and price-to-earnings (PE) ratios for the years 2025 to 2027, with recommendations to "Accumulate" for several companies based on their projected performance [6].

Core Viewpoint - The humanoid robot industry is driven by "technological deepening" and "scene implementation," with a focus on the transition from industrial applications to smart home environments [1][3]. Group 1: Technological Advancements - Figure 02 has achieved a breakthrough in autonomous clothing folding through its Helix architecture and new datasets, showcasing significant technical capabilities in complex tasks [1]. - The ability to fold clothes requires high environmental perception, precision in force control, and motion planning, which Figure 02 has successfully demonstrated using neural network algorithms [1]. - The innovative design of the dexterous hand utilizes underactuated modular finger components, integrating all necessary components within the fingers, which enhances movement stability and adaptability for grasping [2]. Group 2: Market Trends and Applications - The breakthrough in clothing folding signifies a shift from industrial applications to household scenarios, indicating potential for expanding capabilities in daily service needs such as cleaning and caregiving [3]. - The collaborative upgrade path of "algorithm - data - components" is essential for the ongoing development of humanoid robots, emphasizing the importance of algorithm optimization and data accumulation [3].

Industry Overview - The humanoid robot industry is at a "dawn moment" with mass production beginning, driven by investments from tech giants like Tesla, Huawei, and Figure AI, indicating a significant acceleration in industry iteration and breakthroughs [1][7] - The demand for humanoid robots is increasing due to aging populations and rising labor costs, suggesting a transition from B2B to B2C markets with vast future market potential [1][6] Investment Highlights - From January 2024 to June 26, 2025, the humanoid robot index has outperformed the Wind All A index multiple times, driven by technological breakthroughs and policy catalysts, creating a positive cycle of "policy-financing-orders" [2][12] - The supply side of the humanoid robot industry is rapidly flourishing, with leading companies like Tesla and Figure AI pushing for product iterations and commercial applications, particularly in industrial settings [2][21] Production Plans - The second half of 2025 is a critical window for mass production validation, with a goal to achieve "batch production" and cultivate globally influential companies [3][47] - Tesla plans to produce 10,000 Optimus robots in 2025, with monthly production capacity expanding to 1,000 units, while Figure AI aims for 12,000 units annually from its automated production line [3][47] Software and Hardware Development - AI large models are crucial for humanoid robots, but currently represent the weakest link in the development chain, necessitating breakthroughs in software to match hardware advancements [3][19] - The precision reducer market is expected to see significant growth due to humanoid robots, potentially bringing hundreds of billions in incremental revenue [3][21] Demand Dynamics - The global labor market is tightening due to aging populations, increasing the demand for robots to replace human labor, particularly in elder care [6][21] - The humanoid robot market is projected to reach $20 billion by 2030, indicating substantial future growth potential [6][22] Investment Recommendations - Focus on companies entering or already part of Tesla's supply chain, as the industrialization process of Tesla's Optimus robot is well-defined [7] - Monitor Huawei's early-stage supply chain developments, which hold significant potential for growth [7] - Pay attention to companies that can produce core components at lower costs, as this will be key to the widespread adoption of humanoid robots [7]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the advancements in robotics powered by Google's Gemini AI technology, highlighting its ability to perform tasks without continuous internet connectivity and its potential impact on the robotics industry [2][6][24]. Group 1: Gemini Robotics On-Device Model - The Gemini Robotics On-Device model was released on June 24, enabling robots to operate offline, which is beneficial for applications sensitive to latency and ensures robustness in intermittent or zero connectivity environments [6][7]. - This model aims to enhance robots' adaptability to new tasks and environments, addressing issues such as dexterous manipulation, fine-tuning for new tasks, and low-latency inference based on local operation [9][20]. - In performance comparisons, Gemini Robotics On-Device showed significant improvements over previous offline models, although slightly lower than the flagship Gemini Robotics model [14][16]. Group 2: Task Performance and Adaptability - The model demonstrated strong visual, semantic, and behavioral generalization capabilities, successfully completing tasks like placing blocks and opening drawers based solely on natural language commands [13][20]. - After being trained with 50 to 100 examples, the model exhibited impressive adaptability, allowing developers to fine-tune it for new tasks quickly [20]. - The model was tested on dual-arm robots, successfully executing complex tasks that require precision and dexterity, such as folding clothes and industrial assembly [20][22]. Group 3: Industry Implications and Comparisons - The introduction of Google's offline AI robots has the potential to change the game in the robotics sector, although there are questions about how it compares to Tesla's robot designs and Meta's work [24]. - The article emphasizes the diversity and richness of technological approaches in the robotics and embodied intelligence field, all aiming to enable AI to establish genuine causal understanding in the physical world [24].

市场表现： 2025年2月17日-2月21日，我们构建的国信人形机器人指数上涨5.84%，强于沪深300指数4.84pct，强于上证综合指数4.87pct，年初至今上涨36.8%；部分核心公司 中，拓普集团上涨6.45%，三花智控上涨7.44%，银轮股份上涨26.3%，北特科技上涨12.27%，双林股份上涨30.85%，贝斯特上涨21.9%，浙江荣泰上涨18.98%，祥鑫科技上涨 15.99%，双环传动上涨18.22%，斯菱股份上涨24.71%，豪能股份上涨2.99%，精锻科技上涨21.42%，蓝黛科技上涨6.07%，凌云股份上涨16.09%，旭升集团上涨14.04%，肇民 科技上涨13.67%，爱柯迪上涨17.1%，整体来看板块持续表现强势。 行业动态： 行业新闻： 1）Figure AI人形机器人多模态能力升级，能够让人形机器人通过语音命令执行复杂的动作，Helix 能够同时控制35个自由度，涵盖了从单个手指动作到 头部、躯干等多个部分的精细控制；2）"天工" 机器人创纪录：能连续攀爬上百级阶梯、雪地奔跑；3）蚂蚁集团入局具身智能，持续布局加大AI投入；4）DeepSeek加快优必 选人形机器人工业场景规 ...