中国银河近日发布建筑材料行业10月动态报告：闪迪业绩超预期，Non-GAAP季度营收 环比增长21%；毛利率29.9%，环比增长3.5pct，净利润环比增长331%，NAND需求超预 期，库存周转天数从135天减至115天，产能利用率已实现100%。其中，数据中心业务环比 增长26%，闪迪与多家超大规模客户紧密合作，预计数据中心2026年将超过移动市场首次成 为NAND最大的细分应用领域。 以下为研究报告摘要： 核心观点 存储缺货涨价行情有望贯穿26年全年，看好利润弹性超预期。过去一周上证上涨 1.08%，电子下跌0.09%，子行业中消费电子下跌2.45%。同期恒生科技、费城半导体、台湾 资讯科技下跌1.20%、3.89%、2.83%。三季报披露期结束，受存储缺货涨价、关税战抢出口 以及3C消费补贴退坡因素干扰，电子板块尤其是上游IC设计环节在高预期下的增势均有所 回落；叠加3Q25机构持仓在TMT方向仍呈现较高的拥挤度，电子近期行情表现相对平淡。 但是以英伟达为代表的海外AI链仍呈现出如火如荼的高增长态势，算力+存力延续供不应 求，尤其是此前我们重点推荐的存储方向价格涨势依旧。我们认为，当前行业处在较长时间 ...

Core Insights - The article highlights a significant growth in the domestic Mini LED TV market, with sales increasing by 48.1% year-on-year in Q3 2025, leading to a penetration rate of 32.9% [2]. Group 1: Global LCD TV Panel Trends - The report provides an overview of global LCD TV panel shipment trends from Q1 2022 to Q4 2025, indicating fluctuations in demand and supply dynamics [3]. - It also discusses the monthly price changes of LCD TV panels projected from October 2024 to October 2025, reflecting market pricing strategies [3]. Group 2: Domestic TV Market Sales Trends - The quarterly sales volume trends of the domestic TV market from Q1 2023 to Q3 2025 are analyzed, showcasing the overall market performance [3]. - The report details the quarterly sales revenue trends for the domestic TV market during the same period, indicating revenue growth or decline [3]. Group 3: Pricing Trends - The average price trends in the domestic TV market from April 2024 to September 2025 are examined, providing insights into pricing strategies and consumer behavior [3]. Group 4: Brand Performance - The sales volume ranking of brands in the domestic TV market for Q3 2025 is presented, along with year-on-year comparisons to assess brand competitiveness [3]. - The sales revenue ranking of brands in the domestic TV market for Q3 2025 is also included, highlighting the financial performance of leading brands [3]. Group 5: Size Segment Analysis - The report analyzes the sales volume share trends of various size segments in the domestic TV market from Q1 2023 to Q3 2025, indicating consumer preferences for different TV sizes [3]. - The average price trends for different size segments in the domestic TV market during the same period are discussed, reflecting pricing strategies across sizes [3]. Group 6: Mini LED and OLED TV Sales - The sales performance of Mini LED TVs in the domestic market from Q1 2023 to Q3 2025 is detailed, emphasizing the growth trajectory of this technology [3]. - The sales performance of OLED TVs in the domestic market during the same timeframe is also analyzed, providing a comparative view of display technologies [3].

Core Viewpoint - TSMC anticipates strong ongoing demand for AI, with a moderate recovery in non-AI markets, presenting opportunities for domestic storage manufacturers to experience both volume and price increases [1] Group 1: Semiconductor Industry - The demand for LCD TV panels is weakening, leading to price pressure in October, but domestic manufacturers have advantages in high-end capacity and customer structure [1] - Customer inventory levels in the semiconductor sector remain low, and anti-dumping investigations may accelerate the process of domestic substitution [1] Group 2: Investment Products - The Guotai ETF (589100) tracks the Sci-Tech Chip Index (000685), which has a daily price fluctuation limit of 20%, and includes 50 representative securities from the semiconductor industry chain, reflecting the overall performance and development trends of listed companies in China's semiconductor sector [1]

Core Insights - The global LCD TV panel market is entering a positive profit cycle as manufacturers shift from "production-driven sales" to "sales-driven production" [1] Group 1: Market Dynamics - The market share of leading manufacturers is expected to stabilize above 70% starting in 2026, establishing a foundation for steady operations in the TV panel market [2] - The concentration of LCD TV panel production capacity in mainland China has led to a competitive landscape dominated by BOE and TCL CSOT [2] - By 2025, TCL CSOT's market share is projected to increase from 20% to 24%, while BOE's share is expected to rise from 26% to 32% by 2026, resulting in a combined market share of approximately 72% for the top three manufacturers [2] Group 2: Cost Competitiveness - The depreciation completion rate for TV panels is anticipated to exceed 50% by 2026, enhancing cost competitiveness for mainstream sizes over the next three years [4] - The G8.5 production lines will complete depreciation by 2025, leading to cost advantages for 32-inch and 55-inch panels [5] - The G10.5 production lines will enter a rapid depreciation phase from 2025 to 2029, significantly improving the cost competitiveness of key products like 43-inch, 65-inch, and 75-inch panels [5] Group 3: Size Trends - The transition to larger sizes in the TV panel market faces challenges, with average size growth expected to stagnate in 2025 due to demand exhaustion and competitive pressures [7] - Despite the challenges, the completion of G8.6 and G10.5 depreciation is expected to enhance the cost competitiveness of large-size panels, driving growth in the segment [8] - The average size of LCD TV panels has surpassed 51 inches, making further growth more difficult [7] Group 4: Production Efficiency - A production utilization rate of 84% ± 3% is identified as the optimal range for maintaining profits in G10.5 production lines, balancing depreciation and profit [9] - The current production strategy of "demand-driven production" is crucial for sustained profitability, but it may lead to imbalances in profit distribution across the supply chain [9] - Upstream panel manufacturers are currently enjoying good profit levels, while downstream brand manufacturers face significant losses due to external pressures [9] Group 5: Strategic Recommendations - The industry should focus on high concentration, accelerated depreciation, large-size trends, and stable production strategies to achieve "long-termism" [10] - Panel manufacturers are encouraged to collaborate with downstream brands to explore stable demand for large sizes and optimize product structure and production efficiency [10] - A balanced approach to production control is necessary to ensure equitable profit distribution across the industry chain, promoting healthy development of the TV industry [10]

Group 1 - The global LCD TV panel market is experiencing a fragile supply-demand balance due to cooling demand and narrowing supply after the National Day holiday [1] - Panel demand from manufacturers is rationally converging in Q4, as the peak stocking season has passed and brand procurement drivers are weakening [1] - Major manufacturers are implementing production control mechanisms to stabilize supply-demand in the short term, supported by healthy inventory levels [1] Group 2 - For 32-inch panels, demand is cooling but inventory remains healthy, with expected stable average prices from September to October [2] - The 50-inch segment is seeing weakening demand alongside a decline in supply, with average prices expected to remain flat [2] - The 55-inch segment is experiencing rational procurement demand and concentrated supply, with average prices also expected to hold steady [2] Group 3 - The G10.5 production control is significantly impacting supply-demand balance for large-sized panels, with average prices anticipated to remain unchanged [2] - Price ranges for various sizes and resolutions are stable, with no expected changes from September to October [3]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is that the LCD TV panel shipment volume is expected to increase by 5.1% year-on-year in Q3 2025, driven by national subsidy policies and seasonal inventory preparations [2][3]. Group 2 - The article provides a detailed analysis of the global LCD TV panel shipment volume, shipment area, and the ranking of major panel manufacturers in terms of shipment volume and area [2][3]. - It includes monthly changes in LCD TV panel prices from September 2024 to September 2025 [3]. - A timeline related to the "old-for-new" national subsidy policy for 2024-2025 is outlined [3]. - The expected shipment volume and area rankings for global LCD TV panels in Q3 2024 are discussed, along with year-on-year comparisons [3]. - The article presents detailed shipment volume and area share data for various manufacturers (BOE, CSOT, HKC, Innolux, AUO, CHOT, Sharp) segmented by size from Q1 2024 to Q3 2025 [3][4].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights that the global LCD TV panel shipment volume is expected to increase by 5.1% year-on-year in Q3 2025, driven by national subsidy policies and seasonal inventory preparations [4]. Group 2 - The article provides a detailed analysis of the quarterly and monthly changes in global LCD TV panel shipment volume and area, along with forecasts [4]. - It discusses the monthly price trends of LCD TV panels from September 2024 to September 2025 [4]. - A timeline related to the "old-for-new" national subsidy policy for 2024-2025 is included [4]. - The article ranks global LCD TV panel shipment volume and area for Q3 2024, along with year-on-year comparisons [4]. - It presents the shipment volume and area share by size for BOE LCD TV panels from Q1 2024 to Q3 2025 [4]. - Similar data is provided for CSOT, HKC, Innolux, AUO, CHOT, and Sharp LCD TV panels, detailing their shipment volume and area share by size from Q1 2024 to Q3 2025 [4].

Core Viewpoint - BOE Technology Group announced on September 29 that industry players are continuously implementing a "demand-driven production" strategy, flexibly adjusting production line utilization rates based on market demand changes [1] Group 1: Market Demand and Production Strategy - In the first quarter, driven by strong export demand and the "old-for-new" policy, overall terminal demand was robust, leading to high utilization rates across the industry, with mainstream LCD TV panel prices rising across the board [1] - In the second quarter, changes in the international trade environment and policy effects led to a cooling of panel procurement demand, prompting companies to quickly adjust their utilization rates in response to demand changes [1] - Since the third quarter, as the trend of inventory reduction among manufacturers has ended, the demand for panel stocking in the peak season has gradually recovered, resulting in a recovery of industry utilization rates, while some LCD TV panel prices stabilized after a slight decline [1] Group 2: Price Trends - For LCD IT, the prices of MNT and NB panels have remained stable overall [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that BOE A indicates a recovery in panel inventory demand as the destocking trend among manufacturers comes to an end since the third quarter [1] - The industry operating rate has shown signs of recovery alongside the stabilization of LCD TV panel prices after a slight decline in certain sizes [1] - For LCD IT, the prices of MNT and NB panels have remained stable overall [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that BOE A (000725) has observed a recovery in panel inventory demand as the destocking trend among manufacturers comes to an end since the third quarter [1] - The industry operating rate has shown signs of recovery alongside the stabilization of LCD TV panel prices after a slight decline in certain sizes [1] - For the LCD IT segment, prices for MNT and NB panels have remained stable overall [1]