智通财经APP获悉，12月16日，群智咨询发布2026年电视面板市场展望。2025年，全球LCD TV面板出货好于预期，尤其受世界杯备货以及一季度面 板价格上涨预期等因素影响，四季度LCD TV面板出货同比强势增长，但结构性失衡使得面积增势明显放缓。2025年全球LCD TV面板出货量为2.48亿 片，同比增长3.0%；预计2026年电视面板市场增长重点转向大尺寸，因此数量基准回落至2.43亿片，同比下降2.1%，但出货面积受大尺寸化趋势推动 同比增加0.9%。2026年，多重因素扰动电视产业链，群智咨询认为：循序渐进，张弛有度，构建以大尺寸为基础的增长飞轮，TV面板产业将能在动 态平衡中建立产业链协同体系，稳步巩固利润护城河。 面板出货：推动平均尺寸重回增长轨道是2026年稳定需求的核心抓手 聚焦面积维度持续增长是2026年电视面板市场的主要方向：终端需求前景依然不容乐观，预计2026年小尺寸面板需求的逆势增长难以为继，中大尺寸 需求透支现象逐步缓解，平均尺寸增长有望恢复活力。影响2026年电视面板规模及供需基本面的主要因素如下： ① 赛事备货是年底至一季度电视面板需求的主要驱动力。即将迎来2026赛事年， ...

万联证券发布研报称，根据洛图科技数据，11月面板大厂LCDTV面板报价有所上涨，预计月末结算价 仍下跌，但跌幅有望环比收窄。需求端，明年迎来体育赛事催化，下游终端厂商有望提前备货，12月 TV面板价格有望止跌。在大尺寸显示面板需求增长推动下，整体面积需求有望保持强劲。展望后市， 伴随着高世代产线折旧逐步进入尾声，龙头企业盈利能力及现金流情况有望持续改善，建议关注中国内 地面板行业的龙头企业。 LCD面板厂稼动率维持较高水平，产线折旧压力减缓有望改善运营压力 根据洛图科技数据，2025年10月，全球大尺寸液晶电视面板出货量为20.6M片，同比增长8.0%，环比9 月下降4.8%。2025年下半年至今，LCD面板厂商产能利用率均维持在较高的水平，7-10月整体市场的出 货量均呈同比增长状态，增幅分布在5%-10%之间。此外，10.5代LCD工厂折旧期进入尾声，有望改善 企业运营压力，利于控产稳价策略的维持。 投资建议 未来LCD总出货量预计将趋于稳定，中国内地面板厂市场份额占据全球接近七成，基本掌握产业链话语 权，控产稳价策略有望维持。需求端迎来明年体育赛事的催化及长期电视面板大尺寸化的市场增量，产 业链盈利能力 ...

证券研究报告|电子 [Table_Title] 12 月 TV 面板价格有望企稳，明年需求端转 暖可期 [Table_ReportType] ——电子行业快评报告[Table_ReportDate] ⚫ 明年体育赛事有望推动面板需求回暖，电视大尺寸化持续推进：2026 年 冬奥会、世界杯有望推动需求端回暖，下游终端厂商有望提前开启备货， 预计对 LCD TV 面板价格产生一定支撑。出货面积方面，根据 Omdia 预 测，受贸易摩擦影响，2025 年显示面板市场的面积需求或仅增长 2%， 增速低于 2024 年，但随着电视大尺寸化持续推进，70 英寸及以上需求 有望维持增长，2026 年全球显示面板总面积需求预计同比增长 6%。 ⚫ LCD 面板厂稼动率维持较高水平，产线折旧压力减缓有望改善运营压 力：根据洛图科技数据，2025 年 10 月，全球大尺寸液晶电视面板出货 量为 20.6M 片，同比增长 8.0%，环比 9 月下降 4.8%。2025 年下半年至 今，LCD 面板厂商产能利用率均维持在较高的水平，7-10 月整体市场的 出货量均呈同比增长状态，增幅分布在 5%-10%之间。此外，10.5 代 LC ...

Core Viewpoint - The report from CINNO Research indicates that panel demand has declined further in November due to the end of the peak stocking period, while supply remains relatively ample, leading to a continued decrease in panel prices [1] Group 1: Market Trends - In December, demand in the North American market is gradually being released, which is expected to drive a short-term recovery in demand [1] - The overall capacity utilization rate remains high, suggesting that prices for small and medium-sized panels are likely to stabilize gradually [1] Group 2: Price Forecast - Large-sized panel prices are expected to continue their downward trend, while the price trajectory for LCD TV panels in December is anticipated to show differentiation [1]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [5][3]. Core Views - The company reported a year-on-year revenue growth of 7.53% and a net profit growth of 39.03% for the first three quarters of 2025, with a revenue of 154.55 billion yuan and a net profit of 4.60 billion yuan [1]. - The LCD industry is experiencing a continuous optimization of its structure, with manufacturers adopting a demand-driven production strategy, leading to moderate fluctuations in TV panel prices [2]. - The company is expected to see a double-digit growth in OLED shipments for the year, driven by flagship models from leading brands and an increase in the penetration of foldable devices [2]. Financial Performance Summary - For Q3 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 53.27 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 5.81% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 5.11% [1]. - The gross margin for Q3 2025 was reported at 14.44%, showing a year-on-year decrease of 3.0 percentage points but an increase of 1.4 percentage points quarter-on-quarter [1]. - The revenue forecast for 2025-2027 is projected to grow by 12.4%, 8.2%, and 9.3%, reaching 223.1 billion yuan, 241.3 billion yuan, and 263.8 billion yuan respectively [3][4]. Earnings Forecast and Financial Metrics - The net profit for 2025 is expected to be 6.53 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 22.6% [4]. - The projected price-to-book (PB) ratios for 2025-2027 are 1.11, 1.07, and 1.01 respectively [3][4]. - The company’s earnings per share (EPS) is forecasted to be 0.17 yuan in 2025, with a growth rate of 22.6% [4].

中国银河近日发布建筑材料行业10月动态报告：闪迪业绩超预期，Non-GAAP季度营收 环比增长21%；毛利率29.9%，环比增长3.5pct，净利润环比增长331%，NAND需求超预 期，库存周转天数从135天减至115天，产能利用率已实现100%。其中，数据中心业务环比 增长26%，闪迪与多家超大规模客户紧密合作，预计数据中心2026年将超过移动市场首次成 为NAND最大的细分应用领域。 以下为研究报告摘要： 核心观点 存储缺货涨价行情有望贯穿26年全年，看好利润弹性超预期。过去一周上证上涨 1.08%，电子下跌0.09%，子行业中消费电子下跌2.45%。同期恒生科技、费城半导体、台湾 资讯科技下跌1.20%、3.89%、2.83%。三季报披露期结束，受存储缺货涨价、关税战抢出口 以及3C消费补贴退坡因素干扰，电子板块尤其是上游IC设计环节在高预期下的增势均有所 回落；叠加3Q25机构持仓在TMT方向仍呈现较高的拥挤度，电子近期行情表现相对平淡。 但是以英伟达为代表的海外AI链仍呈现出如火如荼的高增长态势，算力+存力延续供不应 求，尤其是此前我们重点推荐的存储方向价格涨势依旧。我们认为，当前行业处在较长时间 ...

Core Insights - The article highlights a significant growth in the domestic Mini LED TV market, with sales increasing by 48.1% year-on-year in Q3 2025, leading to a penetration rate of 32.9% [2]. Group 1: Global LCD TV Panel Trends - The report provides an overview of global LCD TV panel shipment trends from Q1 2022 to Q4 2025, indicating fluctuations in demand and supply dynamics [3]. - It also discusses the monthly price changes of LCD TV panels projected from October 2024 to October 2025, reflecting market pricing strategies [3]. Group 2: Domestic TV Market Sales Trends - The quarterly sales volume trends of the domestic TV market from Q1 2023 to Q3 2025 are analyzed, showcasing the overall market performance [3]. - The report details the quarterly sales revenue trends for the domestic TV market during the same period, indicating revenue growth or decline [3]. Group 3: Pricing Trends - The average price trends in the domestic TV market from April 2024 to September 2025 are examined, providing insights into pricing strategies and consumer behavior [3]. Group 4: Brand Performance - The sales volume ranking of brands in the domestic TV market for Q3 2025 is presented, along with year-on-year comparisons to assess brand competitiveness [3]. - The sales revenue ranking of brands in the domestic TV market for Q3 2025 is also included, highlighting the financial performance of leading brands [3]. Group 5: Size Segment Analysis - The report analyzes the sales volume share trends of various size segments in the domestic TV market from Q1 2023 to Q3 2025, indicating consumer preferences for different TV sizes [3]. - The average price trends for different size segments in the domestic TV market during the same period are discussed, reflecting pricing strategies across sizes [3]. Group 6: Mini LED and OLED TV Sales - The sales performance of Mini LED TVs in the domestic market from Q1 2023 to Q3 2025 is detailed, emphasizing the growth trajectory of this technology [3]. - The sales performance of OLED TVs in the domestic market during the same timeframe is also analyzed, providing a comparative view of display technologies [3].

Core Viewpoint - TSMC anticipates strong ongoing demand for AI, with a moderate recovery in non-AI markets, presenting opportunities for domestic storage manufacturers to experience both volume and price increases [1] Group 1: Semiconductor Industry - The demand for LCD TV panels is weakening, leading to price pressure in October, but domestic manufacturers have advantages in high-end capacity and customer structure [1] - Customer inventory levels in the semiconductor sector remain low, and anti-dumping investigations may accelerate the process of domestic substitution [1] Group 2: Investment Products - The Guotai ETF (589100) tracks the Sci-Tech Chip Index (000685), which has a daily price fluctuation limit of 20%, and includes 50 representative securities from the semiconductor industry chain, reflecting the overall performance and development trends of listed companies in China's semiconductor sector [1]

Core Insights - The global LCD TV panel market is entering a positive profit cycle as manufacturers shift from "production-driven sales" to "sales-driven production" [1] Group 1: Market Dynamics - The market share of leading manufacturers is expected to stabilize above 70% starting in 2026, establishing a foundation for steady operations in the TV panel market [2] - The concentration of LCD TV panel production capacity in mainland China has led to a competitive landscape dominated by BOE and TCL CSOT [2] - By 2025, TCL CSOT's market share is projected to increase from 20% to 24%, while BOE's share is expected to rise from 26% to 32% by 2026, resulting in a combined market share of approximately 72% for the top three manufacturers [2] Group 2: Cost Competitiveness - The depreciation completion rate for TV panels is anticipated to exceed 50% by 2026, enhancing cost competitiveness for mainstream sizes over the next three years [4] - The G8.5 production lines will complete depreciation by 2025, leading to cost advantages for 32-inch and 55-inch panels [5] - The G10.5 production lines will enter a rapid depreciation phase from 2025 to 2029, significantly improving the cost competitiveness of key products like 43-inch, 65-inch, and 75-inch panels [5] Group 3: Size Trends - The transition to larger sizes in the TV panel market faces challenges, with average size growth expected to stagnate in 2025 due to demand exhaustion and competitive pressures [7] - Despite the challenges, the completion of G8.6 and G10.5 depreciation is expected to enhance the cost competitiveness of large-size panels, driving growth in the segment [8] - The average size of LCD TV panels has surpassed 51 inches, making further growth more difficult [7] Group 4: Production Efficiency - A production utilization rate of 84% ± 3% is identified as the optimal range for maintaining profits in G10.5 production lines, balancing depreciation and profit [9] - The current production strategy of "demand-driven production" is crucial for sustained profitability, but it may lead to imbalances in profit distribution across the supply chain [9] - Upstream panel manufacturers are currently enjoying good profit levels, while downstream brand manufacturers face significant losses due to external pressures [9] Group 5: Strategic Recommendations - The industry should focus on high concentration, accelerated depreciation, large-size trends, and stable production strategies to achieve "long-termism" [10] - Panel manufacturers are encouraged to collaborate with downstream brands to explore stable demand for large sizes and optimize product structure and production efficiency [10] - A balanced approach to production control is necessary to ensure equitable profit distribution across the industry chain, promoting healthy development of the TV industry [10]

Group 1 - The global LCD TV panel market is experiencing a fragile supply-demand balance due to cooling demand and narrowing supply after the National Day holiday [1] - Panel demand from manufacturers is rationally converging in Q4, as the peak stocking season has passed and brand procurement drivers are weakening [1] - Major manufacturers are implementing production control mechanisms to stabilize supply-demand in the short term, supported by healthy inventory levels [1] Group 2 - For 32-inch panels, demand is cooling but inventory remains healthy, with expected stable average prices from September to October [2] - The 50-inch segment is seeing weakening demand alongside a decline in supply, with average prices expected to remain flat [2] - The 55-inch segment is experiencing rational procurement demand and concentrated supply, with average prices also expected to hold steady [2] Group 3 - The G10.5 production control is significantly impacting supply-demand balance for large-sized panels, with average prices anticipated to remain unchanged [2] - Price ranges for various sizes and resolutions are stable, with no expected changes from September to October [3]