I either put my money into low cost funds or in single stocks that (I think) are asymmetric bets. My portfolio is roughly 50/50 between the two. I like to write about Macro and Fundamentals, with the (painful) awareness that Momentum and Sentiment are what really matters. That’s the reason I never try to time the market and I only buy stocks if I am willing to hold them for at least 10 years.When it comes to fundamentals, I think everybody knows the market is forward looking, but few truly understand what t ...

Tesla could sure use a Model 2 right about now https://t.co/L86AZLkrls ...

But fast-forward to September, and Tesla has flipped the script. Over the month, the stock has roared back more than 28%, erasing its year-to-date (YTD) losses. The spark was a blockbuster insider move, with Musk himself buying 2.568 million shares worth roughly $1 billion, his first purchase in five years. That, paired with renewed optimism about Tesla’s long-term growth amid the Robotaxi launch in Arizona, catapulted the stock to $444.98 on Sept. 22, a massive 104% rebound off April’s lows. Shares now sit ...

Tesla TSLA is pushing toward record third-quarter deliveries while sharpening its focus on artificial intelligence and autonomy despite rising competition from Chinese EV makers.The company continues to lead on real-world AI and self-driving technology, even as brand challenges and political headwinds weigh on its outlook.Tesla stock gained on Monday after Piper Sandler analyst Alex Potter maintained an Overweight rating and raised its price forecast from $400 to $500.Also Read: Tesla’s Model YL Takes On To ...

馬斯克騙了所有人？ 那個讓我們 等了多年的 特斯拉平價車 根本不存在嗎？ 至少 不是以我們 想像的方式存在 汽車界的 拆車之神 Sandy Munro 最近爆出一個 驚天猛料！ 他說Cybercab 那台無人計程車 根本就是個 特洛伊木馬！ 它隨時可能 變身成 特斯拉的平價車 就是Model 2！ 你沒聽錯 這不只是 一台計程車 更是馬斯克 用來顛覆整個 平價汽車市場的 終極武器！ 這到底是個 什麼驚天佈局？ 難道馬斯克 真的要用一台 無人駕駛的出租車 來消滅所有 傳統的家用轎車嗎？ 你認為這會 成為現實嗎？. ...

Industry Analysis & Market Trends - Tesla's Cybercab may be a "Trojan horse" for Model 2, potentially disrupting the affordable car market [2] - The emergence of Cybercab could make competitors like Waymo seem outdated, representing a potential paradigm shift in autonomous driving [2] - Tesla is focusing on a more challenging but potentially more rewarding development path by prioritizing visual and AI-driven autonomous driving solutions over LiDAR and high-precision maps [2] - Tesla is re-releasing used Model 3 and Y vehicles through leasing programs in California and Texas, with monthly rents starting as low as $225, to stabilize used car prices and promote FSD adoption [2] - Modern Motors invested approximately $1 billion to increase its stake in Motional, an autonomous driving technology company, now holding over 85% of the company's shares [3] - Motional is shifting its technical approach from rule-based systems to machine learning-driven motion planning, indicating a move away from LiDAR and high-precision maps towards a "pure vision" solution similar to Tesla's [3] Tesla Production & Operations - Tesla is planning an invite-only event at Giga Texas on August 29th, offering attendees a behind-the-scenes look at the production process and the latest product line, potentially related to Robotaxi [2] - Tesla China has reintroduced the traditional turn signal lever in the new Model 3 configuration and offers an official retrofit service for existing Highland owners at a cost of 2499 RMB [3] Musk's Perspective - Elon Musk considers The Wall Street Journal to be the worst newspaper globally, refusing to even use it as birdcage lining [3]

Core Viewpoint - Tesla's stock price has experienced volatility, but projections suggest it could reach $500 by late 2026 to 2028, representing a potential upside of 58% from its current price of $316 [1][2]. Financial Performance - In Q2 2025, Tesla reported a 12% year-over-year decline in total revenue to $22.4 billion, with vehicle sales revenue dropping 16% compared to Q2 2024 [4]. Market Capitalization and Earnings Growth - To justify a $500 share price, Tesla would need to grow its market capitalization from approximately $1.01 trillion to $1.6 trillion, requiring annual earnings of $16 billion to $20 billion, up from the current range of $9 billion to $10 billion [5]. Path to $500 Share Price - The base-case scenario indicates that Tesla could reach $500 between late 2026 and mid-2027, contingent on scaling a Robotaxi service, increasing revenue from Full Self-Driving software, and launching a mass-market vehicle like the $25,000 Model 2 [6]. Key Catalysts - Successful rollout of the Robotaxi service, widespread adoption of Tesla's low-cost EV platform in 2026, and monetization of AI and robotics efforts, including the Optimus humanoid robot and advancements in Full Self-Driving technology, are identified as key catalysts [7]. Alternate Timelines - A bullish scenario could see the $500 target reached as early as Q4 2025, while a more cautious outlook suggests it might not be achieved until between 2028 and 2030 [8].

Core Viewpoint - Tesla's Q2 2025 financial results fell short of market expectations, with revenue and profit declining, and free cash flow reaching a multi-year low, while its ambitious Robotaxi and humanoid robot projects remain in early stages and unable to offset the weakness in its core business [1][2][3] Financial Performance - Q2 revenue was $22.5 billion, slightly below the expected $22.74 billion - Adjusted earnings per share were $0.40, missing the forecast of $0.43 - Net profit decreased by 16% year-over-year to $1.17 billion - Free cash flow dropped to $146 million, marking a new low in recent years - Carbon credit revenue plummeted to $439 million, half of the previous year's figure - Vehicle deliveries totaled 384,000 units, a 14% year-over-year decline, with automotive revenue at $16.7 billion, down 16% [1][2] Market and Policy Challenges - The decline in stock price was triggered by poor core business performance and adverse policy factors, including the termination of the $7,500 federal EV tax credit and the reimposition of import tariffs [2] - Tesla's vehicle supply in the U.S. is constrained, with potential delays in fulfilling orders after late August [2] Future Prospects and Innovations - CEO Elon Musk indicated that the company may face several challenging quarters but emphasized a long-term vision [2] - Robotaxi testing has begun in Austin, with a goal to achieve widespread autonomous ride-hailing by the end of 2025 - The humanoid robot "Optimus" is in testing, with mass production expected by 2026 [2] Competitive Landscape - The company faces increasing competition in China and Europe, particularly from local manufacturers offering "low price + high configuration" vehicles, which poses a significant threat to Tesla's global market share [3] Non-Automotive Business Highlights - Tesla's Supercharger network continues to expand, adding 2,900 charging stations in the quarter, an 18% year-over-year increase - The value of its digital assets, primarily Bitcoin, rose from $722 million a year ago to $1.24 billion, providing some financial support [3]

Tesla Q2 2025 Earnings Call Summary Company Overview - **Company**: Tesla - **Date**: Q2 2025 Earnings Call Key Points Production and Sales Performance - In Q2 2025, Tesla's production was 410,000 units, remaining flat year-over-year, while sales decreased by 13.5% to 384,000 units [2][5] - Deliveries in key markets saw significant declines: China down 26%, the US down 18.35%, and Europe down 31.6%, with Europe experiencing the most severe drop [2][7] - The decline in sales is attributed to decreased competitiveness of Model 3 and Model Y, alongside political factors affecting the European market [2][8] Revenue and Financial Outlook - Q2 revenue is expected to decline by approximately 15% year-over-year if prices remain unchanged [2][9] - The energy business contributes about 10% to Tesla's overall revenue, with a projected growth of over 50% in deployment volume for the year, despite potential demand suppression due to tariffs [2][11] AI and Robotaxi Developments - Tesla is testing its robotaxi service in Austin, with initial rides priced at $4.2 per trip, using a modified Model Y platform [2][12] - The robotaxi project faces challenges in data collection and regulatory submissions, with commercial data expected in 1-2 years [2][16] - The Optimus robot project is facing hardware and software issues, with production targets of 5,000 to 10,000 units for 2025, but only 1,000 units produced by the end of Q2 [2][18] Market Position and Competitive Landscape - Tesla's core business segments include automotive (80% of revenue), energy (10%), and services/other (10%) [2][4] - The average cost of the Model Y is approximately 250,000 RMB, which is not competitive compared to rivals [2][14] - The robotaxi's operational area is limited compared to competitors like Vivo and萝卜快跑, which have achieved profitability [2][16] Future Product Launches - The launch of a more affordable Model 2 or Model Q is critical for Tesla's valuation, but cost reduction challenges remain significant [2][20][21] - A 6-seat version of the Model Y is expected to be released in Q3 2025, with further details pending [2][22] Important Considerations - Monitoring of automotive gross margins, energy deployment volumes, and the progress of AI initiatives like Robotaxi and Optimus is essential for assessing Tesla's future performance [2][19] - The impact of tariffs on energy business margins and the overall cost structure will be crucial in the upcoming quarters [2][11] Conclusion Tesla's Q2 2025 performance reflects significant challenges in sales and production, particularly in key markets. The company's focus on AI and energy solutions presents both opportunities and hurdles, with future product launches being pivotal for its market position.

Core Viewpoint - Wall Street is anticipating Tesla's Q2 earnings report, with an AI model projecting limited upside for the stock amid declining sales and increasing competition [1][6]. Financial Performance - Tesla is expected to report Q2 revenue of $22.79 billion, a 9% decline from $25.05 billion year-over-year [2]. - Analysts forecast adjusted EPS of $0.43, translating to adjusted net income of $1.513 billion [2]. - Global vehicle deliveries fell 13.5% year-over-year to 384,122 units in Q2 [2]. Stock Performance - Despite challenges, Tesla shares have shown resilience, maintaining a position above $300, with TSLA up 1% at $332, though down 12% year-to-date [3]. - AI predictions suggest Tesla stock is likely to remain above $300 following the earnings release [5]. Market Sentiment - Weakening sentiment around Tesla is noted, partly due to CEO Elon Musk's political activities, which may alienate some consumers [6]. - Rising inventory levels pose risks to margins and cash flow, following the production of more vehicles than were delivered in Q2 [6]. Future Outlook - Without a strong earnings beat, a clear roadmap for the robotaxi program, or an affordable EV like the Model 2, the outlook remains cautious [7]. - At 38x forward earnings, much of Tesla's future growth appears priced in [7]. Price Predictions - The AI model assigns the highest probability to a muted outcome, with earnings in line with expectations leading to a modest pullback in stock to the $315-$325 range [8]. - In a bullish scenario, where Tesla beats revenue and earnings forecasts and announces a credible robotaxi timeline, shares could rally toward $350-$370 [9]. - Conversely, a miss paired with vague forward guidance could cause the stock to fall to the $290-$305 range [9][10]. Key Focus Areas - The market will be closely monitoring updates on autonomy, Q3 margin, delivery guidance, and progress in key markets such as China and Europe [11].