以下文章来源于远川科技评论 ，作者何律衡 远川科技评论 . 刻画这个时代（的前沿科技） 来源丨远川科技评论（ID：kechuangych） 作者丨何律衡 编辑丨李墨天 图源丨Midjourney 特斯拉去年三季报略显平庸，但画饼仙人马斯克成功完成电话会逆转。凭借业绩指引和Model 2两张 大饼，资本市场喜笑颜开，给特斯拉送上大涨。 大超预期的汽车毛利率和提前释放的交付量指引，构成了资本市场用钱投票的核心因素，但这绝对不 是马斯克乐见的景象。 2022年开始，马斯克就在各种场合积极吹风，不断剥离特斯拉"汽车生产商"的身份，用"人工智 能"元素取而代之。具体话术包括但不限于 "如果你把特斯拉只看作一家汽车公司，那么你对特斯拉 的理解就是片面的"、"如果特斯拉只是个电动车公司，它就完了" 等等。 去年二季度的财报电话会上，马斯克在不到60分钟的时间里，蹦出28次"AI"一词 ，平均两分钟一 次。 算上一季度电话会，马斯克一共提及43次AI，相当于2023年四个季度的总和、2022年的2倍多、 2021年的6倍多。 把财报电话会的关键词分为两类，一类是 汽车生产相关（automotive、factory、 capa ...

Group 1 - Tesla's board chairman, Robyn Denholm, confirmed that several new vehicles are set to be launched, sparking renewed interest in Tesla's vehicle plans [1] - The recently launched "standard versions" of Model 3 and Model Y, which have simplified features compared to the "premium versions," may be part of the new vehicle lineup [1] Group 2 - The highly anticipated entry-level model, referred to as "Model 2," is expected to be priced around $25,000, targeting consumers who cannot afford Tesla's higher-end models [3] - There is speculation regarding the timing of the Model 2 release, especially after the recent launch of the standard versions of Model 3 and Model Y [3] - Tesla's "Cybercab" project, aimed at the same price range as Model 2, may progress faster due to the company's focus on autonomous driving technology [3] Group 3 - There is significant demand for a full-size SUV from Tesla to compete with models like the Ford Expedition and Chevrolet Tahoe, as the current Model X does not meet the needs for larger capacity and storage [4] - A recent promotional video hinted at the development of a "Cyber SUV," and Tesla's chief designer has indicated that the company is considering launching a Cyber-style SUV or a more traditional small electric pickup [4]

Core Insights - Tesla reported mixed results for Q3, with revenue of $28.1 billion, a 12% year-over-year increase, and deliveries of 497,000 vehicles, up 7.4%, both hitting historical highs. However, net profit fell to $1.37 billion, a 37% decline year-over-year, and adjusted net profit dropped 29%, significantly below market expectations [1][17] - The company is facing challenges with its pricing strategy, as it has resorted to price cuts to boost sales, which has led to a decline in vehicle margins and consumer perception of quality [3][6][9] Financial Performance - Q3 revenue reached $28.1 billion, a 12% increase from the previous year, while net profit was $1.37 billion, down 37% year-over-year [1] - The average selling price of Tesla vehicles decreased from approximately $55,000 in 2022 to $41,800 in Q3 2023, reflecting a significant drop in vehicle margins [3][8] - The automotive gross margin fell to 15.4%, with per vehicle gross profit estimated at $6,400, a reduction of over 50% compared to previous years [8][9] Pricing Strategy - Tesla introduced lower-priced models, such as the Model Y Standard and Model 3 Standard, but faced criticism for reducing features, leading to negative consumer feedback [2][6] - The company has been using financial promotions and subsidies to manage inventory, but the effectiveness of these strategies is in question as consumer trust appears to be eroding [3][6] Innovation and Future Outlook - Tesla's future growth narrative relies heavily on advancements in autonomous driving, robotics, and AI, with Musk emphasizing these areas during earnings calls [10][15] - Despite the focus on new technologies, the company has faced delays in the rollout of its robotics business, with significant technical challenges reported [13][15] - The energy generation and storage business saw a 44% revenue increase to $3.42 billion, but this segment remains a small part of Tesla's overall business [15] Leadership and Governance - A new ten-year compensation plan for Musk has sparked controversy, with critics arguing that it is excessive and questioning Musk's focus on Tesla amid his other ventures [17][18] - Musk's potential departure raises concerns about Tesla's future direction, as he has shown more interest in AI and robotics than in traditional automotive operations [19][20]

Core Insights - Tesla Inc. is considering a fundamental design change for the upcoming Cybercab, potentially including traditional vehicle controls like a steering wheel and pedals [2][3]. Group 1: Design Changes - Tesla's Board Chair Robyn Denholm indicated that the Cybercab could feature a steering wheel and pedals if necessary, suggesting flexibility in its design [2]. - The Cybercab may serve as Tesla's Model 2, positioned as a more affordable option below the Model 3 in the company's electric vehicle lineup [2]. Group 2: Market Reactions - Ross Gerber, co-founder of Gerber Kawasaki, previously suggested adding a steering wheel and pedals to the Cybercab to enhance its marketability as an affordable model [3]. - Following Denholm's comments, Gerber expressed optimism on social media, indicating that Tesla is aligning with market realities to ensure the Cybercab's success [4]. Group 3: Testing and Development - The Cybercab has been observed undergoing testing at Tesla's Gigafactory in Texas and the Fremont facility, indicating progress in its development [5]. Group 4: Robotaxi Updates - CEO Elon Musk mentioned during a recent earnings call that Tesla aims to deploy driverless Robotaxis in 8-10 major U.S. cities by the end of the year, revising earlier expectations of broader service coverage [6]. Group 5: Performance Metrics - Tesla is noted for strong momentum and quality metrics, satisfactory growth, but poor value, with a favorable price trend across short, medium, and long-term perspectives [7].

Core Viewpoint - The investment strategy focuses on a balanced portfolio between low-cost funds and individual stocks, emphasizing long-term holding and understanding market dynamics beyond mere financial metrics [1] Investment Strategy - The portfolio is approximately 50% in low-cost funds and 50% in single stocks, reflecting a balanced investment approach [1] - The investment philosophy prioritizes holding stocks for at least 10 years, avoiding market timing [1] Market Understanding - The market is viewed as a meeting point of demand and supply, with a focus on predicting human behavior rather than solely relying on financial ratios like P/E [1] - There is an emphasis on understanding what the market perceives in a stock beyond numerical data, which includes analyzing sectors, industries, and long-term growth trends [1] Current Investment Outlook - The company is currently bullish on specific stocks including AMD, PLTR, TSLA, as well as broad US equities and Bitcoin [1]

Tesla could sure use a Model 2 right about now https://t.co/L86AZLkrls ...

Core Insights - Tesla's stock has rebounded significantly, gaining over 28% in September and erasing year-to-date losses, driven by Elon Musk's purchase of 2.568 million shares worth approximately $1 billion and optimism surrounding the Robotaxi launch in Arizona [1][2][3] Company Overview - Tesla, valued at over $1.4 trillion, has transformed from an EV startup to a global innovator, integrating electric vehicles, battery storage, solar energy, and robotics into a cohesive ecosystem [3] - The company is focused on reshaping mobility and promoting sustainable energy solutions [3] Recent Developments - Tesla launched its Robotaxi program in Austin, expanded into California, and received regulatory approval in Arizona, allowing self-driving vehicles to operate in Phoenix [5][15] - The Robotaxi initiative aims to revolutionize urban mobility, offering cost-effective and efficient transportation solutions [6][15] Financial Performance - Tesla's Q2 2025 earnings report showed revenue of $22.5 billion, down 12% year-over-year, with earnings per share (EPS) declining 23% to $0.27 [9][10] - Deliveries fell to 384,122, a decrease of over 13%, attributed to an aging vehicle lineup and increased competition from Chinese manufacturers [10] - Despite challenges, gross margins were at 17.2%, and the company maintained a cash reserve of $36.8 billion, although free cash flow dropped significantly to $146 million [11][12] Market Outlook - Analysts predict a challenging year for Tesla in 2025, with EPS expected to fall 41% year-over-year to $1.20, but anticipate a recovery in 2026 with EPS potentially rising to $2 [13] - Mizuho Securities raised its price target for Tesla to $450, citing resilient EV demand and production increases, while Piper Sandler increased its target to $500, emphasizing Tesla's leadership in autonomous vehicles [18][19] - Baird's analysis suggests Tesla could achieve significant growth by 2035, potentially reaching a market cap of over $5.5 trillion if ambitious targets are met [21] Competitive Landscape - Tesla faces stiff competition from established players like Waymo and Amazon's Zoox, which are advancing in the autonomous vehicle space [17] - Regulatory approvals and safety concerns remain critical hurdles for Tesla's Robotaxi program [16][23] Analyst Sentiment - The overall rating for Tesla stock is mixed, with 13 analysts recommending a "Strong Buy," while others remain cautious, reflecting a divided opinion on the company's future prospects [22]

Core Insights - Tesla is aiming for record third-quarter deliveries while focusing on AI and autonomy amidst rising competition from Chinese EV manufacturers [1][2] - Analyst Alex Potter maintains an Overweight rating on Tesla, raising the price forecast from $400 to $500, indicating strong confidence in the company's future [1][6] Group 1: Competitive Landscape - Chinese automakers, such as Xiaomi, Li Auto, and Leapmotor, are seen as significant competitors due to their vertically integrated operations and low-cost models [2] - Despite the competition, Chinese companies look to Tesla for leadership in "real-world AI," acknowledging Tesla's pioneering role in the industry [3] Group 2: Delivery and Financial Projections - Tesla is projected to deliver approximately 495,000 units in the third quarter, potentially setting a record [3] - For the third quarter, revenue is projected at $26.93 billion with an EPS of $0.69 [6] Group 3: AI and Future Growth - Tesla's advancements in AI, particularly with Full Self-Driving (FSD), are expected to drive higher valuations, with version 14 anticipated to be a significant improvement [5] - The company's high P/E multiple reflects its potential to disrupt massive markets through AI, similar to Amazon's early cloud computing days [4] Group 4: Risks and Challenges - While there are risks such as production delays and political headwinds, Tesla's rapid improvements in AI initiatives, especially FSD, are noteworthy [5][6] - Brand challenges related to Elon Musk's behavior and increasing competition from China are acknowledged, yet Tesla's unique potential in monetizing autonomy and robotics remains a strong point [6]

Market Speculation - The automotive industry is buzzing with speculation that Tesla's Cybercab, initially presented as a robotaxi, might be a Trojan horse [1] - Industry analysts suggest Cybercab could potentially transform into Tesla's long-awaited affordable car, possibly named Model 2 [1] - The report posits a scenario where Tesla might disrupt the traditional family car market by introducing a self-driving taxi [1] Potential Strategy - The core of the discussion revolves around whether Elon Musk intends to eliminate conventional family sedans with an autonomous taxi service [1] Key Players - Sandy Munro, a prominent figure known as the "拆车之神" (teardown expert) in the automotive world, has made significant claims about Tesla's plans [1]

Industry Analysis & Market Trends - Tesla's Cybercab may be a "Trojan horse" for Model 2, potentially disrupting the affordable car market [2] - The emergence of Cybercab could make competitors like Waymo seem outdated, representing a potential paradigm shift in autonomous driving [2] - Tesla is focusing on a more challenging but potentially more rewarding development path by prioritizing visual and AI-driven autonomous driving solutions over LiDAR and high-precision maps [2] - Tesla is re-releasing used Model 3 and Y vehicles through leasing programs in California and Texas, with monthly rents starting as low as $225, to stabilize used car prices and promote FSD adoption [2] - Modern Motors invested approximately $1 billion to increase its stake in Motional, an autonomous driving technology company, now holding over 85% of the company's shares [3] - Motional is shifting its technical approach from rule-based systems to machine learning-driven motion planning, indicating a move away from LiDAR and high-precision maps towards a "pure vision" solution similar to Tesla's [3] Tesla Production & Operations - Tesla is planning an invite-only event at Giga Texas on August 29th, offering attendees a behind-the-scenes look at the production process and the latest product line, potentially related to Robotaxi [2] - Tesla China has reintroduced the traditional turn signal lever in the new Model 3 configuration and offers an official retrofit service for existing Highland owners at a cost of 2499 RMB [3] Musk's Perspective - Elon Musk considers The Wall Street Journal to be the worst newspaper globally, refusing to even use it as birdcage lining [3]