馬斯克騙了所有人？ 那個讓我們 等了多年的 特斯拉平價車 根本不存在嗎？ 至少 不是以我們 想像的方式存在 汽車界的 拆車之神 Sandy Munro 最近爆出一個 驚天猛料！ 他說Cybercab 那台無人計程車 根本就是個 特洛伊木馬！ 它隨時可能 變身成 特斯拉的平價車 就是Model 2！ 你沒聽錯 這不只是 一台計程車 更是馬斯克 用來顛覆整個 平價汽車市場的 終極武器！ 這到底是個 什麼驚天佈局？ 難道馬斯克 真的要用一台 無人駕駛的出租車 來消滅所有 傳統的家用轎車嗎？ 你認為這會 成為現實嗎？. ...

大家好我是大鱼 今天的资讯 包括下面几个消息 1. Cybercab是 特洛伊木马？ 2. 特斯拉生产经营 方面的消息 3.现代豪赌10亿美元！ 关注这些领域的朋友 不要错过 今天重要的内容 OK let's go 第一部分 Cybercab 是特洛伊木马？ 大家有没有想过 让我们等了 这么久的 特斯拉平价车 那个所谓的 Model 2 很可能早就 和我见面了 汽车界的大网红 Sandy Munro 最近就丢出一个 非常劲爆的观点 他说特斯拉的 Cybercab 全自动计程车 根本就是个 特洛伊木马！ 它其实 就是Model 2！ 这到底是怎么回事？ 难道马斯克打算 用一台计程车 来消灭整个 平价车市场吗？ 在我们深入探讨之前 有必要简单了解一下 Sandy Munro 这个人 他可不是 博眼球的普通网红 他是全球最顶尖的 汽车逆向工程专家 更关键的是 他曾经是特斯拉 的头号批评者 多年前曾公开 嘲笑早期Model 3 的制造品质 后来是因为 亲手拆解了Model Y 被特斯拉的 工程进化彻底震撼 才从黑粉 转为铁粉 所以 当这样一个人 开始盛赞特斯拉 的未来布局时 那含金量 就会特别高 好我们直接 切入重点 ...

Core Viewpoint - Tesla's stock price has experienced volatility, but projections suggest it could reach $500 by late 2026 to 2028, representing a potential upside of 58% from its current price of $316 [1][2]. Financial Performance - In Q2 2025, Tesla reported a 12% year-over-year decline in total revenue to $22.4 billion, with vehicle sales revenue dropping 16% compared to Q2 2024 [4]. Market Capitalization and Earnings Growth - To justify a $500 share price, Tesla would need to grow its market capitalization from approximately $1.01 trillion to $1.6 trillion, requiring annual earnings of $16 billion to $20 billion, up from the current range of $9 billion to $10 billion [5]. Path to $500 Share Price - The base-case scenario indicates that Tesla could reach $500 between late 2026 and mid-2027, contingent on scaling a Robotaxi service, increasing revenue from Full Self-Driving software, and launching a mass-market vehicle like the $25,000 Model 2 [6]. Key Catalysts - Successful rollout of the Robotaxi service, widespread adoption of Tesla's low-cost EV platform in 2026, and monetization of AI and robotics efforts, including the Optimus humanoid robot and advancements in Full Self-Driving technology, are identified as key catalysts [7]. Alternate Timelines - A bullish scenario could see the $500 target reached as early as Q4 2025, while a more cautious outlook suggests it might not be achieved until between 2028 and 2030 [8].

Core Viewpoint - Tesla's Q2 2025 financial results fell short of market expectations, with revenue and profit declining, and free cash flow reaching a multi-year low, while its ambitious Robotaxi and humanoid robot projects remain in early stages and unable to offset the weakness in its core business [1][2][3] Financial Performance - Q2 revenue was $22.5 billion, slightly below the expected $22.74 billion - Adjusted earnings per share were $0.40, missing the forecast of $0.43 - Net profit decreased by 16% year-over-year to $1.17 billion - Free cash flow dropped to $146 million, marking a new low in recent years - Carbon credit revenue plummeted to $439 million, half of the previous year's figure - Vehicle deliveries totaled 384,000 units, a 14% year-over-year decline, with automotive revenue at $16.7 billion, down 16% [1][2] Market and Policy Challenges - The decline in stock price was triggered by poor core business performance and adverse policy factors, including the termination of the $7,500 federal EV tax credit and the reimposition of import tariffs [2] - Tesla's vehicle supply in the U.S. is constrained, with potential delays in fulfilling orders after late August [2] Future Prospects and Innovations - CEO Elon Musk indicated that the company may face several challenging quarters but emphasized a long-term vision [2] - Robotaxi testing has begun in Austin, with a goal to achieve widespread autonomous ride-hailing by the end of 2025 - The humanoid robot "Optimus" is in testing, with mass production expected by 2026 [2] Competitive Landscape - The company faces increasing competition in China and Europe, particularly from local manufacturers offering "low price + high configuration" vehicles, which poses a significant threat to Tesla's global market share [3] Non-Automotive Business Highlights - Tesla's Supercharger network continues to expand, adding 2,900 charging stations in the quarter, an 18% year-over-year increase - The value of its digital assets, primarily Bitcoin, rose from $722 million a year ago to $1.24 billion, providing some financial support [3]

Tesla Q2 2025 Earnings Call Summary Company Overview - **Company**: Tesla - **Date**: Q2 2025 Earnings Call Key Points Production and Sales Performance - In Q2 2025, Tesla's production was 410,000 units, remaining flat year-over-year, while sales decreased by 13.5% to 384,000 units [2][5] - Deliveries in key markets saw significant declines: China down 26%, the US down 18.35%, and Europe down 31.6%, with Europe experiencing the most severe drop [2][7] - The decline in sales is attributed to decreased competitiveness of Model 3 and Model Y, alongside political factors affecting the European market [2][8] Revenue and Financial Outlook - Q2 revenue is expected to decline by approximately 15% year-over-year if prices remain unchanged [2][9] - The energy business contributes about 10% to Tesla's overall revenue, with a projected growth of over 50% in deployment volume for the year, despite potential demand suppression due to tariffs [2][11] AI and Robotaxi Developments - Tesla is testing its robotaxi service in Austin, with initial rides priced at $4.2 per trip, using a modified Model Y platform [2][12] - The robotaxi project faces challenges in data collection and regulatory submissions, with commercial data expected in 1-2 years [2][16] - The Optimus robot project is facing hardware and software issues, with production targets of 5,000 to 10,000 units for 2025, but only 1,000 units produced by the end of Q2 [2][18] Market Position and Competitive Landscape - Tesla's core business segments include automotive (80% of revenue), energy (10%), and services/other (10%) [2][4] - The average cost of the Model Y is approximately 250,000 RMB, which is not competitive compared to rivals [2][14] - The robotaxi's operational area is limited compared to competitors like Vivo and萝卜快跑, which have achieved profitability [2][16] Future Product Launches - The launch of a more affordable Model 2 or Model Q is critical for Tesla's valuation, but cost reduction challenges remain significant [2][20][21] - A 6-seat version of the Model Y is expected to be released in Q3 2025, with further details pending [2][22] Important Considerations - Monitoring of automotive gross margins, energy deployment volumes, and the progress of AI initiatives like Robotaxi and Optimus is essential for assessing Tesla's future performance [2][19] - The impact of tariffs on energy business margins and the overall cost structure will be crucial in the upcoming quarters [2][11] Conclusion Tesla's Q2 2025 performance reflects significant challenges in sales and production, particularly in key markets. The company's focus on AI and energy solutions presents both opportunities and hurdles, with future product launches being pivotal for its market position.

Core Viewpoint - Wall Street is anticipating Tesla's Q2 earnings report, with an AI model projecting limited upside for the stock amid declining sales and increasing competition [1][6]. Financial Performance - Tesla is expected to report Q2 revenue of $22.79 billion, a 9% decline from $25.05 billion year-over-year [2]. - Analysts forecast adjusted EPS of $0.43, translating to adjusted net income of $1.513 billion [2]. - Global vehicle deliveries fell 13.5% year-over-year to 384,122 units in Q2 [2]. Stock Performance - Despite challenges, Tesla shares have shown resilience, maintaining a position above $300, with TSLA up 1% at $332, though down 12% year-to-date [3]. - AI predictions suggest Tesla stock is likely to remain above $300 following the earnings release [5]. Market Sentiment - Weakening sentiment around Tesla is noted, partly due to CEO Elon Musk's political activities, which may alienate some consumers [6]. - Rising inventory levels pose risks to margins and cash flow, following the production of more vehicles than were delivered in Q2 [6]. Future Outlook - Without a strong earnings beat, a clear roadmap for the robotaxi program, or an affordable EV like the Model 2, the outlook remains cautious [7]. - At 38x forward earnings, much of Tesla's future growth appears priced in [7]. Price Predictions - The AI model assigns the highest probability to a muted outcome, with earnings in line with expectations leading to a modest pullback in stock to the $315-$325 range [8]. - In a bullish scenario, where Tesla beats revenue and earnings forecasts and announces a credible robotaxi timeline, shares could rally toward $350-$370 [9]. - Conversely, a miss paired with vague forward guidance could cause the stock to fall to the $290-$305 range [9][10]. Key Focus Areas - The market will be closely monitoring updates on autonomy, Q3 margin, delivery guidance, and progress in key markets such as China and Europe [11].

Core Insights - In 2024, Tesla, Inc. is at a pivotal point to decide its growth trajectory, particularly focusing on the development of the anticipated $25,000 "Model 2," an affordable electric vehicle that has been speculated for nearly six months [1] Group 1 - Tesla is considering the launch of the "Model 2," which aims to cater to a broader market segment by offering a more affordable electric vehicle option [1]

Core Viewpoint - Tesla's reputation as a leader in autonomous driving technology has been severely challenged following the launch of its paid Full Self-Driving (FSD) pilot program in Austin, which showcased significant operational failures and raised questions about the company's reliance on low-cost camera systems instead of more advanced sensor technologies like LiDAR [1][2][4][5]. Group 1: Autonomous Driving Technology - Elon Musk has repeatedly stated that a significant portion of Tesla's traditional fleet will be converted into revenue-generating autonomous taxis, with expectations of "millions of self-driving Tesla cars" by 2026 [2][5]. - Tesla argues that a set of commercial cameras, trained on billions of frames, can achieve human-like vision and outperform more expensive sensor suites, but peer-reviewed literature challenges the feasibility of achieving Level 4 autonomy with cameras alone [2][4]. - A study published in June 2025 indicated that pure camera systems have a 40% higher misjudgment rate in fog and snow compared to systems equipped with LiDAR, raising concerns about safety in adverse conditions [2][4]. Group 2: Regulatory and Safety Concerns - The absence of radar exacerbates safety issues, as radar can measure relative speed and identify metal objects through rain or dust, providing a backup when cameras are obstructed [4][5]. - Recent incidents during the Austin pilot program, including a Model Y vehicle making dangerous maneuvers, have prompted investigations by the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA) [7][10]. - New Texas regulations effective September 1, 2025, allow the state to revoke autonomous driving permits that do not meet safety standards, highlighting the potential for increased regulatory scrutiny on Tesla's operations [5][7]. Group 3: Financial Performance and Market Reaction - Tesla's production in Q2 2025 was 410,244 vehicles, a slight increase from Q1 but a 0.2% decrease year-over-year, while deliveries fell 13.5% to 384,122 vehicles, missing market expectations [10][11]. - Following the disappointing delivery numbers, Tesla's stock price dropped 3.8%, reflecting investor concerns over the company's ability to generate revenue from its autonomous driving initiatives amid declining sales [11][12]. - Analysts are divided on Tesla's future, with some raising target prices based on potential FSD revenue, while others downgrade ratings due to rising regulatory risks and the uncertainty surrounding the FSD rollout [12][13]. Group 4: Future Outlook and Investor Sentiment - The failure of the Austin pilot program has led to increased legal liability risks, with potential collective lawsuits looming if passengers are harmed [13][17]. - Investors are advised to adjust their forecasts, anticipating no significant revenue from autonomous taxis until at least 2028, and to increase discount rates to reflect execution and legal risks [17][18]. - Despite the challenges, Tesla retains advantages such as a vast data collection capability and manufacturing efficiency, which could support future improvements in its autonomous driving technology [14][15].

Core Viewpoint - Tesla's second-quarter delivery data shows a significant decline, with a 13.5% year-over-year drop, raising concerns about its market position and future growth potential [3][5][21]. Group 1: Delivery and Financial Performance - In Q2 2025, Tesla delivered 384,122 vehicles, a decrease of approximately 13.5% compared to the same period last year, marking the second consecutive quarter of year-over-year declines [3][5]. - Despite the disappointing delivery figures, Tesla's stock surged by 4.97% on July 2, 2025, adding $48.1 billion to its market capitalization, attributed to slightly exceeding analyst expectations and a recovery sentiment [4][5]. - Analysts noted that Tesla's delivery numbers were better than the anticipated 365,000 units, suggesting that the company may have reached a bottom in its sales decline [5][21]. Group 2: Market Position and Strategy - Tesla's reliance on the Chinese market is increasing, with China being the only market showing positive growth in 2024, although its market share has significantly decreased from 15.8% in Q1 2021 to 5.6% in 2025 [21][22]. - The company is undergoing significant organizational changes, including layoffs and restructuring, to adapt to market demands and focus on lower-tier cities in China [22]. - Tesla's energy storage business has also seen a decline, with a total installation of 9.6 GWh in Q2 2025, down from 11 GWh in the previous quarter [23]. Group 3: Future Prospects and Innovations - Tesla's future is heavily tied to its AI capabilities, with Musk positioning the company as an AI firm rather than a traditional automaker, focusing on autonomous driving and Robotaxi services [7][10]. - The Robotaxi project is seen as a potential game-changer, with estimates suggesting it could generate significant revenue, but its current testing phase has revealed several technical challenges [14][15][18]. - Analysts have differing views on Tesla's valuation, with price targets ranging from $115 to $500 per share, reflecting uncertainty about the company's future performance and the impact of Musk's leadership [11][19]. Group 4: Challenges and Risks - Tesla faces political and economic challenges in the U.S., including tariff pressures and potential changes to supportive policies, which could adversely affect its sales and profitability [24][28]. - The company's reliance on Musk's vision and leadership poses risks, especially as he navigates complex political landscapes that could impact Tesla's operations and market perception [28][30]. - The recent cautious approach to the Robotaxi launch, with limited vehicle deployment and selective user access, indicates underlying concerns about the project's readiness and market acceptance [20][30].

Core Viewpoint - Tesla is facing significant sales challenges, with a 13.5% year-over-year decline in global vehicle sales in Q2 and a similar decline in Q1, attributed to a lack of new models and internal turmoil [1][2][6]. Group 1: Sales Performance - Tesla's Q2 global vehicle sales dropped by 13.5% year-over-year, following a 13% decline in Q1, marking one of the worst sales periods for the company [1]. - The Cybertruck, Tesla's only new model in the past five years, has not performed well in terms of sales [3]. - The overall electric vehicle market in the U.S. saw a decline of approximately 7% in Q2, impacting Tesla's sales [4]. Group 2: Strategic Shift - Despite the automotive sales challenges, Elon Musk has shifted focus towards autonomous driving taxis and humanoid robots, indicating a long-term vision beyond current sales figures [2][12]. - Musk has stated that the autonomous taxi project could potentially add $5 trillion to $10 trillion to Tesla's market value, with expectations of having fully autonomous vehicles on U.S. roads by the end of 2026 [13]. Group 3: Internal and External Challenges - Tesla has experienced significant internal upheaval, with key executives leaving, including Omead Afshar, who was responsible for North American and European sales and manufacturing [7][9]. - The political activities of Musk have also affected Tesla's brand perception, with recent public disputes with former President Trump [9][10]. Group 4: Market Valuation - Despite the challenges in the automotive sector, investors continue to support Musk's vision, which has helped maintain Tesla's market valuation close to $1 trillion [2][13]. - Analysts suggest that the valuation of Tesla's automotive business is less than $100 per share, significantly lower than its current stock price of around $300, indicating a disconnect between market expectations and actual business performance [14][15].