Group 1: Investment Opportunities in Consumer Sectors - The core investment targets in the self-consumption sector, including gaming giants and companies like Pop Mart and Cloud Music, are currently trading at a PE ratio of less than 20x for 2026, indicating a high margin of safety [1] - The structural consumption dividend from young domestic users willing to pay for enjoyment remains intact, suggesting a favorable investment environment [1] Group 2: Gaming Industry Insights - The Z generation now accounts for 65% of domestic users, and the potential of female-oriented gaming segments is still underestimated [1] - The overseas market expansion is expected to unlock new growth avenues, with companies like Giant Network showing strong daily active user (DAU) growth and potential for IP development [1] - The upcoming Spring Festival is anticipated to catalyze further DAU increases for titles like "Supernatural Action," which has already launched in regions like Hong Kong and Macau [1] Group 3: Trends in Toy Industry - Pop Mart is experiencing overly pessimistic market expectations regarding single IPs, with expansion into new IPs and regions (especially North America) being crucial for mid-term growth [2] - The company has opened 171 stores globally, indicating significant room for growth in both breadth and density [2] - The lifecycle of IPs is being extended through successful product innovation and iteration, maintaining fan engagement [2] Group 4: Music Industry Analysis - Tencent's two music companies are valued at an average PE of 17x for 2026, indicating they are significantly undervalued given the stable demand for subscription services among young users [3] - The market's reaction to the impact of Soda Music is overly negative, as Tencent focuses on acquiring top-tier copyrights and creating differentiated content [3] Group 5: Other Entertainment Companies - Companies like Zhiyu City are showing low PE ratios with high growth potential, with expectations of entering the Hong Kong stock market in 2026 [4] - The AI narrative in the internet sector is being validated by companies like Alibaba Cloud, with expectations for AI model chips and applications to drive valuations [4] - Various companies are exploring AI applications across advertising, video, and product exports, indicating a broad trend towards AI integration in entertainment [4]

证券分析师 林起贤 A0230519060002 linqx@swsresearch.com 袁伟嘉 A0230519080013 yuanwj@swsresearch.com 任梦妮 A0230521100005 renmn@swsresearch.com 夏嘉励 A0230522090001 xiajl@swsresearch.com 赵航 A0230522100002 zhaohang@swsresearch.com 黄俊儒 A0230525070008 huangjr@swsresearch.com 研究支持 张淇元 A0230124080001 zhangqy@swsresearch.com 联系人 林起贤 A0230519060002 ted by street the start of the seen the seen the seen the seen the seen the seen the seen the seen the seen the seen the 相关研究 linqx@swsresearch.com 2025 年 12 月 14 日 互联网争夺 C 端 Al 入口: 字节 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight," indicating a positive outlook for the internet sector, particularly in AI applications and consumer engagement [3][11]. Core Insights - The report highlights the competition for consumer-facing AI interfaces, with significant developments from ByteDance and Alibaba. ByteDance's upcoming conference will focus on the performance and pricing of its Doubao model, while Alibaba has restructured its C-end business group to enhance its AI capabilities [3]. - The report recommends investing in Giant Network and 37 Interactive Entertainment due to their strong growth potential in the gaming sector, particularly targeting young female consumers [3]. - The advertising sector, particularly Focus Media, is noted for its ongoing mergers and high dividend support, with expectations of continued investment from internet companies [3]. Summary by Sections AI Competition - ByteDance is focusing on the Doubao model's performance and pricing, with its AI mobile phone already integrated into various services. However, challenges remain regarding privacy and competition with super apps [3]. - Alibaba's new C-end business group aims to develop its Qianwen app into a super app and expand its AI assistant capabilities across multiple platforms [3]. Gaming Sector - Giant Network is expected to see significant growth with its upcoming game "Supernatural Action," while 37 Interactive Entertainment is entering a profit recovery phase with a projected net profit of 3.21 billion yuan for 2025 [3]. - The report emphasizes the potential of the young female gaming market and the undervaluation of companies with strong daily active user products [3]. Advertising Sector - Focus Media's merger with New Wave is progressing, expected to enhance its bargaining power within the industry. The company is also benefiting from increased investment in local life services and AI applications [3]. - The report notes that despite macroeconomic challenges, Focus Media has shown strong operational efficiency and profitability [3]. Valuation Overview - A detailed valuation table is provided, showcasing key companies in the gaming and entertainment sectors, including Tencent, Giant Network, and 37 Interactive Entertainment, with projected revenue and profit growth rates [5].

2026 年消费品投资策略 20251210 摘要 2026 年民生保障预计加强，广东省放松低保认定标准或为政策趋势， 服务消费将成为消费增长新动力，商品零售增速放缓，政策或将激励服 务消费以稳定居民消费。 申万宏源预计 2026 年经济需求企稳回升，PPI 或转正，利好顺周期资 产。五年规划首年 A 股企业盈利有望回升，关注非银金融、科技、制造 业，以及 PPI 回升受益板块如军工、日常消费、电力设备等，关注核聚 变、机器人、军工主题及白酒。 互联网传媒领域，游戏、潮玩、音乐及演唱会估值较低，安全边际高， 盈利预测确定性强则有望反弹。推荐巨人网络（《超自然行动》用户活 跃度和流水提升，海外市场扩展超预期），三七互娱（高股息，SLG 成 功经验，积极布局新产品）。 AI 应用与云计算持续推动互联网公司价值重估，关注 CAPEX 比经营现 金流指标。自研芯片全栈布局将进一步体现价值，百度昆仑芯、阿里平 头哥、腾讯投资的燧原等公司芯片估值有望提升。 Q&A 2026 年消费板块的宏观展望是什么？ 根据申万宏源的分析，2026 年消费板块将继续受到国内政策的支持，特别是 在 15 规划中对居民消费和内需的重视。通过 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight" indicating a positive outlook for the sector compared to the overall market performance [4][17]. Core Insights - The core opportunities in the entertainment industry stem from domestic young users and overseas expansion, with key targets expected to have a PE ratio of approximately 15x in 2026 [3][4]. - Companies such as Giant Network and 37 Interactive Entertainment are highlighted for their growth potential, particularly in the gaming sector, with significant international revenue contributions [3][5]. - The report emphasizes the importance of AI applications in enhancing user experience and operational efficiency across various platforms [5][6]. Summary by Relevant Sections Key Companies and Their Prospects - **Giant Network**: Long-term potential in the female-oriented gaming sector is underestimated, with expectations for increased daily active users (DAU) and revenue during the Spring Festival [3][4]. - **37 Interactive Entertainment**: Recently faced administrative penalties but maintains a low PE and high dividend yield, with 32% of revenue coming from overseas [3][4]. - **Century Huatong**: Focus on the global expansion of casual gaming in 2026, with strong core products [4]. - **Pop Mart**: Market expectations for single IP are overly pessimistic; expansion of IP and regions (Europe and America) is crucial for mid-term growth [4][5]. - **Red Star**: Leading in social entertainment in the Middle East, with a low PE and high growth potential [5]. AI and Technology Developments - **Doubao AI Phone**: Represents a significant exploration in cross-application AI agents, with capabilities for deep scheduling and operation across applications [5][6]. - **Cloud AI Infrastructure**: Companies like Baidu and Alibaba are strengthening their AI infrastructure, with new chip developments expected to launch in 2026 and 2027 [6][7]. Market Trends and Valuation - The report includes a valuation table for key companies, indicating projected revenues and net profits for 2024 to 2026, with notable growth rates in several firms [10][11]. - The overall market sentiment is positive, with a focus on recovery rhythms for companies like Focus Media and Visionox [8].

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call primarily discusses the AI mobile phone market and the broader AI hardware landscape, highlighting key players such as ByteDance, Doubao, Apple, and Google [1][2][3]. Core Insights and Arguments - **AI Mobile Phones**: ByteDance and Doubao have launched AI mobile phones, showcasing the potential for deep integration of AI at the system level, including cross-application permission calls and seamless functionality [1][2]. - **Upcoming Releases**: Apple and Google are expected to release significant upgrades to their iPhone and Pixel AI phones in 2026, emphasizing the combination of self-developed models with external models and deep integration with their respective operating systems [1][3]. - **Investment Opportunities in Supply Chain**: Companies in Apple's supply chain such as Luxshare Precision, Dongshan Precision, Linying Manufacturing, and Lens Technology are expected to benefit from the rollout of AI technologies [1][4]. - **AIoT Developments**: The AIoT sector is anticipated to see major advancements in 2026, with OpenAI, Google, and Apple planning to launch various hardware products, indicating a promising mid-term outlook for the edge AI market [1][4]. Investment Recommendations - **A-Share Media Sector**: Recommended companies include Giant Network and Century Huatong, which have low valuations (16-17x PE) and strong game product performance. Additionally, Focus Media is suggested as a stable income option with an estimated 14x PE and a projected profit growth rate of over 15% next year [1][5][6]. - **Tencent Holdings**: Expected to experience growth across its gaming, advertising, and fintech sectors in 2026, with a current valuation of approximately 17x PE. The game "Delta Action" is projected to generate significant profits, while AI technology is expected to drive a 20% increase in advertising revenue [2][7]. - **Hai Guang Information**: Positioned well due to domestic substitution demand amid US-China tech tensions, with positive sentiment from the upcoming IPOs of domestic GPU companies and potential mergers enhancing investment opportunities [2][10]. Additional Noteworthy Content - **AI Hardware Trends**: The AI hardware market is diversifying, with products like Alibaba's AI glasses and ByteDance's AI phone demonstrating advanced system-level capabilities [2]. - **Emerging Companies**: Other companies to watch include Ctrip Group, JD Health, and Lenovo Group, which are expected to show strong performance and growth potential [2][8]. - **AI Resilience**: Companies like Alibaba, Baidu, SMIC, and Hua Hong Semiconductor are highlighted for their opportunities in the self-controlled domain, with Alibaba being noted as a leading AI asset in China [2][9].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is positive, with core targets in the self-consumption sector (including gaming companies like Giant Network, Huatuo, and Kaiying, as well as Pop Mart, Cloud Music, and Damai) currently trading at a PE ratio of less than 20x for 2026, indicating a high safety margin [4][3]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes the structural consumption dividend from young domestic users willing to pay for enjoyment, driven by globalization leading to a second growth curve. It suggests focusing on current layout opportunities [4][3]. - In the gaming sector, the report highlights the underestimation of the potential in the female-oriented market and the overseas expansion opportunities, with a significant portion of Gen Z users (65%) [5][3]. - For Pop Mart, the market's overly pessimistic expectations regarding single IPs are noted, with expansion in IP and regions (especially in Europe and North America) being crucial for mid-term growth [6][3]. Gaming Sector Summary - The gaming sector is characterized by a youthful demographic, with a significant opportunity in female-oriented games. The report suggests that the market underestimates the long-term operational capabilities of leading companies [5][3]. - Key companies highlighted include Giant Network, Tencent, Century Huatong, and Bilibili, with specific mentions of their upcoming products and growth strategies [5][3]. Toy Industry Summary - Pop Mart's global expansion is noted, with 171 overseas stores as of October 30, including 62 in North America and 28 in Europe. The report anticipates significant sales growth during the holiday season [6][3]. - The report also discusses the importance of extending the lifecycle of IPs and the successful innovation and iteration of products to maintain fan engagement [6][3]. Music Industry Summary - The valuation of Tencent's music companies is highlighted, with an average PE of 17x for 2026. The report indicates that the market is underestimating the potential for subscription-based revenue from young users [7][3]. - It contrasts Tencent's focus on premium content and community engagement with the low-cost model of competitors, suggesting a stable demand for music consumption [7][3]. Other Notable Companies - The report mentions other entertainment companies like Red Star and the potential for growth in the Hong Kong internet sector, particularly with Alibaba Cloud's AI narrative and the expected benefits from AI applications [8][3]. - The report also notes the ongoing developments in AI technology and its implications for various sectors, including advertising and video content [9][3].

业 及 产 业 行 业 研 究 / 行 业 点 评 相关研究 证券分析师 林起贤 A0230519060002 linqx@swsresearch.com 袁伟嘉 A0230519080013 yuanwj@swsresearch.com 任梦妮 A0230521100005 renmn@swsresearch.com 夏嘉励 A0230522090001 xiajl@swsresearch.com 赵航 A0230522100002 zhaohang@swsresearch.com 黄俊儒 A0230525070008 huangjr@swsresearch.com 研究支持 张淇元 A0230124080001 zhangqy@swsresearch.com 联系人 林起贤 A0230519060002 linqx@swsresearch.com 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 本研究报告仅通过邮件提供给 中庚基金 使用。1 证 券 - ⚫ 我们认为悦己消费核心标的（游戏巨人、华通、恺英等，泡泡玛特、云音乐、大麦）当 前已经消化至 26 年 PE 不到 20x，有较高安全边际，同时全球化带动第 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is maintained as "Buy" with a target price of RMB 48.54 [1]. Core Insights - The company reported strong Q3 results with revenue of RMB 1.706 billion, a year-over-year increase of 115.63% and a quarter-over-quarter increase of 81.83%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was RMB 640 million, up 81.19% year-over-year and 49.07% quarter-over-quarter [1]. - The deferred revenue from the game "Supernatural" is expected to continue growing, alongside the company's ongoing AI game initiatives [1]. - The management has shifted focus towards attracting younger talent, which is anticipated to inject vitality into the company [2]. Revenue and Profitability - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company achieved a total revenue of RMB 3.368 billion, reflecting a year-over-year growth of 51.84%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was RMB 1.417 billion, up 32.31% year-over-year [1]. - The company’s Q3 gross margin was stable at 90.46%, with a slight increase of 0.64 percentage points. The sales expense ratio rose to 36.65%, an increase of 1.41 percentage points [4]. Product Development and Market Position - The company has a rich pipeline of new products, including the strategy card game "Ming Jiang Sha" and the SLG game "Five Thousand Years," which are expected to contribute to future revenue growth [3]. - Existing products like the "Journey" series and "Ball Battle" continue to perform well, with the latter expanding its user base through platforms like Douyin and WeChat [3]. Financial Forecast and Valuation - The net profit forecast for 2025 is maintained at RMB 2.26 billion, with upward adjustments for 2026 and 2027 to RMB 4.08 billion and RMB 5.07 billion, respectively [5]. - The target price has been adjusted to RMB 48.54, reflecting a 23X PE for 2026, based on the company's strong product performance and integration of AI [5].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight" indicating a positive outlook for the sector compared to the overall market performance [10]. Core Insights - The report highlights the rising trend of "small happiness" self-consumption as a relative safe haven amid increasing risk aversion, with specific companies like Pop Mart and Damai Entertainment showing strong growth potential through innovative product offerings and expansion strategies [3][5]. - The gaming sector is experiencing significant adjustments, with major companies like Tencent and Century Huatong expected to maintain strong performance despite market volatility, while the AI video segment is emerging as a key area for growth [3][5]. Summary by Relevant Sections Consumer Sector - Pop Mart is ramping up production capacity and expanding product categories, with successful new IP launches and international expansion, achieving rapid sales growth during peak seasons [3]. - Damai Entertainment's core IP Chiikawa has seen high demand in mainland China, indicating strong market interest and potential for future growth [3]. Gaming Sector - Tencent Holdings is projected to have a market cap of 50,823 million RMB with a revenue growth of 13% year-on-year, while its PE ratio is expected to be 20 for 2025 [5]. - Century Huatong is also highlighted with a projected revenue increase of 21% year-on-year, indicating a positive outlook for its gaming products [5]. Cloud Computing and Entertainment - Alibaba's cloud computing segment is expected to grow at a rate of 11% year-on-year, with a market cap of 26,914 million RMB [5]. - Mango TV is anticipated to see a turnaround in its operations, benefiting from favorable policy changes in the long video sector [3]. AI and Technology - The report emphasizes the importance of AI in video production, with companies like Bilibili and Kuaishou positioned to leverage AI advancements for monetization [3]. - The technology sector has faced a 14% adjustment since October 2, but the report suggests that the fundamentals remain strong, driven by advancements in domestic models and chips [3].