野村认为，得益于AI服务器对DRAM需求的意外强劲以及企业级固态硬盘（eSSD）需求的激增，全球内存行业的"超级周期"将比预期持续更久， 预计这一上行周期将至少延续至2027年。 据追风交易台消息，野村分析师CW Chung团队在24日的报告中强调，不仅高带宽内存（HBM）需求持续旺盛，通用型DRAM在AI服务器和传统 服务器领域的需求也在2026年呈现出爆发式增长态势。这促使客户开始采取预防性采购策略，从而推动供应商的提价幅度超出了野村此前的预 测。 鉴于供应端的大规模产能释放最早要等到2028年，野村预计未来几年内存市场将维持供不应求的局面。野村预测主要内存制造商在2025年第四季 度的营业利润将显著超出市场普遍预期。具体而言，PC和移动端DRAM价格环比上涨了30-40%，而服务器DRAM价格涨幅更是达到了40-60%。 受此利好影响，野村重申了对三星电子和SK海力士的"买入"评级。野村将三星电子的目标价上调6.7%至16万韩元，将SK海力士的目标价上调 4.8%至88万韩元，认为两家公司的估值相较于行业同行仍具吸引力，且随着盈利能力的显著改善，股价仍有约45%-50%的上涨空间。 AI需求重塑市场格局 ...

每日经济新闻 半导体设备ETF（159516）跟踪的是半导体材料设备指数（931743），该指数聚焦于半导体产业链 上游的材料与设备领域，选取从事半导体材料研发、生产和销售，以及半导体设备制造的相关上市公司 证券作为指数样本，以反映半导体产业基础建设及技术支持环节的整体表现。 【免责声明】本文仅代表作者本人观点，与和讯网无关。和讯网站对文中陈述、观点判断保持中立，不对所包含内容 的准确性、可靠性或完整性提供任何明示或暗示的保证。请读者仅作参考，并请自行承担全部责任。邮箱： news_center@staff.hexun.com 风险提示：提及个股仅用于行业事件分析，不构成任何个股推荐或投资建议。指数等短期涨跌仅供 参考，不代表其未来表现，亦不构成对基金业绩的承诺或保证。观点可能随市场环境变化而调整，不构 成投资建议或承诺。提及基金风险收益特征各不相同，敬请投资者仔细阅读基金法律文件，充分了解产 品要素、风险等级及收益分配原则，选择与自身风险承受能力匹配的产品，谨慎投资。 中信建投指出，AI加速器厂商对HBM3E的需求持续增长，供应紧张导致价格溢价。中芯国际针对8 英寸BCD工艺平台涨价10%，该技术因集成度高 ...

美国特拉华州最高法院 19 日裁定，特斯拉公司首席执行官埃隆·马斯克原总值 560 亿美元的薪酬方案遭下级法院取消的决定太过极端，该方案必须恢复。 特拉华州最高法院指出，下级法院、特拉华州衡平法院并未给特斯拉机会解释公正薪酬理应如何。 按美国消费者新闻与商业频道说法，特拉华州最高法院这一裁决可能终结围绕马斯克「天价」薪酬长达数年的争斗。 美国一法院放行马斯克原 560 亿美元薪酬方案 特斯拉董事会和股东大会于 2018 年批准一项马斯克的薪酬方案，当时总值约 560 亿美元。方案设立 12 项目标，马斯克每完成一项，便可获得相应的股票 期权激励。原告方、特斯拉一名小股东理查德·托尔内塔认为特斯拉董事会未能履行职责，致马斯克对薪酬方案获批施加不当影响，并因此「不公正致 富」。 马斯克目前在特斯拉的持股比例约 13%。据路透社和德新社报道，原总值 560 亿美元的薪酬方案当前总值已涨至约 1400 亿美元。马斯克如果兑现全部股 票期权，其持股比例将在扩大股份基础上升至 18.1%。（来源：新华社） FTC 已批准英伟达对英特尔的投资 近日，美国联邦贸易委员会（FTC）已批准英伟达对英特尔的投资，但未披露交易的具体 ...

为支持人工智能而激增的数据中心基础设施投资已致使内存形成短缺，进而导致价格飙升，这一背景或 为即将公布的美光科技(MU.US)季度财报提供支撑。本周，高盛分析师在美光计划于12月17日举行的季 度财报电话会议前提供了最新看法。分析师给出了基本看涨的前景，预测其业绩将高于华尔街的普遍预 期。他们还就2026年可能的情况提出了初步看法，并详述了美光财报中可能影响其股价的关键关注点。 高盛分析师在业绩前发布预测，预计美光科技第三季度营收将达到132亿美元，超过华尔街127亿美元的 普遍预期，预计每股收益为4.15美元，高于3.84美元的平均预期。 内存瓶颈已被指出是包括戴尔(DELL.US)在内的高端AI服务器供应商面临的日益严重的问题。戴尔在其 第三季度财报电话会议中表示，内存价格上涨正增加其成本，且内存短缺正带来挑战。 戴尔副董事长杰弗里.克拉克表示："我们处在一个非常独特的时期。这是前所未有的。我们从未见过成 本以如此速度上涨。而且，不仅仅是DRAM，NAND也是如此。" AI需求点燃内存市场 自2022年ChatGPT的发布引发了人工智能研发热潮以来，一场争夺高性能计算能力的"淘金热"便已展 开。几乎所有人 ...

（来源：半导体前线） 据韩媒报道，三星电子移动体验（MX）事业部希望和三星电子半导体（DS）部门近签署一年以上长 约，以满足Galaxy S26系列所需的LPDDR5X供应。然而在DRAM价格大涨、AI需求升温下，三星半导 体部门拒绝手机事业部门要求，只愿意提供三个月的短约，即使MX事业部高层亲自协商，但只达成第 四季行动DRAM合约到年底的协议。 按常规，MX事业部2026年初将推GalaxyS26系列旗舰手机，但是，受内存「超级周期」影响，成本负 担剧增。 高阶LPDDR5X12GB价格11月底约70美元，较今年初约33美元涨幅超一倍。智能手机成本中占比大的行 动处理器(AP)购买价格也在飙升，DX部门相关采购额和原物料采购额占比均大幅上升。行动AP和内存 半导体在智能手机成本中占比较高，芯片价格上涨将使其占成本比例至少增加5个百分点。 尽管MX事业部正为Galaxy S26价格烦恼，但DS部门则认为不能错过内存超级周期，要以获利为中心调 整产品组合。DS部门正积极调整生产线，重点生产AI加速器使用的高带宽内存(HBM)和行动用低功耗 DRAM(LPDDR)等高利润产品来将收益最大化。 三星集团内部的事件 ...

Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley believes that the strong DRAM technology upgrade cycle, the potential early rollout of TSMC's 3nm process, and the indirect demand from NVIDIA's AI chips are key catalysts driving ASML's profit growth in 2026-2027. The firm has raised ASML's target price from €975 to €1000 [1][2][11]. Group 1: DRAM Market Dynamics - The demand in the DRAM market is robust, with ASML maintaining solid demand during the transition from 1a and 1b nodes to 1γ/1c nodes. Each technology node evolution increases the number of EUV lithography layers required, with the 1c node needing 5-6 layers [3][4]. - Samsung and SK Hynix's demand for DRAM in FY2026 is expected to be clear, supported by strong price increases in the commodity DRAM market [3]. Group 2: TSMC's 3nm Process - TSMC is reportedly testing the original graphic performance of its 3nm process, with potential adoption at its Arizona facility occurring earlier than the initially planned 2028 [4]. - ASML benefits from TSMC's 3nm technology, as it relies on ASML's EUV lithography machines to produce more powerful, energy-efficient, and smaller chips [4]. Group 3: AI Demand and Market Recovery - The growth of AI is indirectly creating demand for ASML, with NVIDIA's record quarterly revenue indicating strong market interest in its Blackwell series GPUs. This demand is expected to support ASML's wafer fabrication equipment supply in FY2026/27 [6][9]. - ASML is emerging from a prolonged 14-month downturn, with signs of new growth momentum as evidenced by rising commodity DRAM prices and advancements in Samsung's HBM3e/HBM4 [9]. Group 4: Profitability and Challenges - Despite an optimistic outlook, ASML faces challenges, particularly in its DUV business, which is expected to see a 15% year-over-year sales decline due to weakened demand in a key Asian market [10]. - ASML's profit margins are expected to remain resilient, supported by higher EUV sales and contributions from its installed base management business. The projected gross margin for FY2026 is 52.3%, only slightly down from 52.7% in FY2025 [11].

Core Insights - ASML is emerging from a prolonged 14-month downturn, with new growth drivers identified in the demand for DRAM and advanced logic chips, leading to a positive growth outlook for the fiscal years 2026-2027 [1] Group 1: DRAM Market Dynamics - The strong demand in the DRAM market is evident, with ASML maintaining solid demand during the transition from 1a and 1b nodes to 1γ/1c nodes, which is crucial for enhancing lithography intensity [2] - Each technological node evolution increases the number of EUV lithography layers required, with the 1c node needing 5-6 layers, indicating sustained demand for EUV lithography systems [2] - Samsung and SK Hynix are expected to have clear demand in fiscal year 2026, supported by strong price increases in commodity DRAM [2] Group 2: Advancements in 3nm Technology - TSMC is testing the original graphic performance of 3nm technology, with potential adoption at its Arizona facility possibly occurring earlier than the initially planned 2028 [3] - ASML benefits from TSMC's 3nm process technology, which relies on ASML's EUV lithography machines to produce more powerful, energy-efficient, and smaller chips [3] - The growth of AI is indirectly creating demand for ASML, with NVIDIA's record quarterly revenue indicating strong interest in its Blackwell series GPUs, which is expected to drive TSMC's expansion of 3nm capacity and increase orders for EUV lithography machines [3] Group 3: Market Recovery and Valuation Reassessment - ASML is moving out of a lengthy downturn, with previous cycles typically compressing its two-year forward P/E ratio from 30-35x to 18-22x within 8-10 months; however, this cycle has lasted over 14 months due to geopolitical uncertainties [5] - The downturn was primarily due to weak spending from foundries other than TSMC, such as Intel and Samsung, along with concerns about lithography intensity and pricing pressure, which have now largely dissipated [5] - The report indicates that the average selling price (ASP) of EUV is expected to rise due to TSMC's adoption of computational lithography, with evidence of a "memory super cycle" emerging from rising commodity DRAM prices and advancements in Samsung's HBM3e/HBM4 [5] Group 4: Profitability and Business Challenges - Despite a positive outlook, ASML faces challenges, particularly in its DUV business, which is expected to see a year-on-year sales decline of approximately 15% due to weakened demand in a key Asian market [6] - ASML's profit margins are expected to remain resilient, supported by higher EUV sales and contributions from its installed base management business [6] - The forecast for ASML's gross margin in fiscal year 2026 is 52.3%, only slightly down from 52.7% in 2025, demonstrating the company's ability to control margins during a challenging DUV year [6] Group 5: Investment Outlook - Based on the positive outlook, Morgan Stanley has raised its target price for ASML from €975 to €1000 and maintains an "overweight" rating, viewing the recent stock price decline as an attractive entry point [6]

Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley has significantly downgraded the ratings of major hardware manufacturers including Dell Technologies, HP, and HPE, citing increasing pressure on profit margins due to soaring memory prices and weakening non-AI hardware demand [1] Group 1: Memory Price Impact - The industry is currently experiencing a "memory supercycle," with NAND and DRAM spot prices rising approximately 50% to 300% over the past six months [1] - Historical data indicates that hardware OEM gross margins typically decline 60 basis points within 6 to 12 months after memory costs begin to rise, contrary to market expectations of slight expansion [1] Group 2: Dell Technologies - Morgan Stanley downgraded Dell's rating from "Overweight" to "Underweight," lowering the target price from $144 to $110, due to the impact of rising memory costs and structurally low profit margins in AI servers [2] - The forecast for Dell's fiscal year 2027 gross margin has been significantly reduced to 18.2%, down 220 basis points from previous estimates, with a 12% decrease in earnings per share (EPS) projections [2] Group 3: HP Inc. - HP's rating has been downgraded from "Equal Weight" to "Underweight," with the target price reduced from $26 to $24, as rising DRAM and NAND prices are expected to squeeze profit margins in its personal systems business [3] - The forecast for HP's fiscal year 2026 gross margin has been lowered by 90 basis points to 19.7%, which is 130 basis points below market consensus, despite an increase in revenue expectations to $56.5 billion [3] Group 4: HPE (Hewlett Packard Enterprise) - HPE's rating has been downgraded from "Overweight" to "Equal Weight," with the target price decreased from $28 to $25, as the integration of Juniper Networks is expected to limit overall profitability amid rising component costs [4] - The forecast for HPE's fiscal year 2026 gross margin has been cut by 260 basis points to 32.9%, with EPS revised down from $2.52 to $2.18 [4] Group 5: Industry Outlook - Dell and HP are identified as the most vulnerable U.S. hardware companies to the impact of rising memory prices, appearing at the top of Morgan Stanley's "most vulnerable list" [5] - The firm emphasizes a preference for technology companies with higher diversification or software revenue, warning that tight memory supply and high prices will pose greater downside risks for the industry until 2026 [5]

Core Viewpoint - The AI-driven memory supercycle is expected to be stronger and more persistent than market expectations, with a shift in demand from price-sensitive traditional customers to AI data centers that are less sensitive to pricing [1][4][6]. Memory Industry Dynamics - The current memory supercycle is structural and its intensity and duration will surpass historical experiences, driven by AI data centers and cloud service providers [3][4]. - The demand for memory is now primarily fueled by inference workloads related to AI applications, marking a significant shift from previous cycles dominated by PCs and smartphones [6][7]. Pricing Trends - Recent channel pricing indicates unprecedented strength, with server DRAM prices soaring nearly 70% for Q4 2025, and DDR5 spot prices increasing by 336% since September [10][11]. - NAND prices are also under pressure, with expectations of a 65-70% increase in Q4 due to supply constraints [12]. Investment Strategy - Investors are advised to "hold" rather than attempt to time the market, as the memory cycle is characterized by volatility and rebounds, making it difficult to predict market movements accurately [14][15]. - The report emphasizes that the time spent in the market is more crucial than trying to time it, as ongoing skepticism can fuel further price increases [15]. Winners and Losers - Memory manufacturers like SK Hynix and Samsung are positioned as winners due to their pricing power, which will lead to significant profit growth [16]. - Conversely, the PC and consumer electronics sectors are likely to face severe profit squeezes due to rising memory costs, with companies struggling to pass these costs onto consumers [18][19].

Market Overview - The A-share market experienced fluctuations, with the Shanghai Composite Index barely holding above the 4000-point mark, closing down 0.07% [1] - The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets was 19,450 billion, a decrease of 486 billion from the previous day [1] - The number of rising stocks was 1,758, while 3,563 stocks declined, with a median decline of 0.66% [1] Index Performance - The market exhibited a "strong at both ends, weak in the middle" characteristic, with the Shanghai 50 and micro-cap stocks performing relatively well, while the Sci-Tech 50 and ChiNext indices were weaker [1] - Despite a lack of strong profit-making effects recently, the Shanghai Composite Index showed stable performance, recovering easily from intraday declines [1] Sector Analysis - Technology stocks, which had previously led the market, are currently undergoing adjustments, impacting overall market profitability [1] - Key sectors such as electric grid equipment, photovoltaics, energy storage, and lithium batteries have remained active but have had minimal impact on the index [1] - The performance of AI hardware stocks, particularly Zhongji Xuchuang, has been pivotal in driving market sentiment and could influence future index movements [2][3] Notable Stocks and Sectors - Zhongji Xuchuang has previously acted as a market leader, contributing to a rebound in AI hardware stocks and pushing the index to new highs [2] - The banking sector has shown strong performance, with the banking index reaching a historical high and Agricultural Bank of China hitting a new record [3] - The textile and apparel sector has reached a new high not seen in over seven years, while the home appliance sector is currently consolidating near its previous highs [5][6] Investment Strategies - Companies in the home appliance sector are highlighted for their defensive attributes, with stable profitability and low valuations [10] - The AI and growth trend is emphasized, particularly for companies with advantages in smart home appliances and AI content ecosystems [10] - The lithium battery sector is noted for its strong performance among upstream material stocks, although caution is advised due to recent significant price increases [10] Market Sentiment and Future Outlook - The market is currently in a state of uncertainty, prompting funds to seek defensive positions [4] - The AI industry chain is identified as a key focus for the current bull market, with attention on when AI hardware stocks will conclude their adjustments [12] - The upcoming 27th High-Tech Fair is expected to showcase significant developments in the aerospace sector, potentially influencing market dynamics [11]