每日经济新闻 （责任编辑：张晓波 ） 【免责声明】本文仅代表作者本人观点，与和讯网无关。和讯网站对文中陈述、观点判断保持中立，不对所包含内容 的准确性、可靠性或完整性提供任何明示或暗示的保证。请读者仅作参考，并请自行承担全部责任。邮箱： news_center@staff.hexun.com 江海证券指出，国内人形机器人商业化步伐加快，头部企业持续释放利好。优必选近期接连斩获大 额订单，在手订单金额已达近4亿元；智元、慧智物联等企业也积极推动人形机器人在不同场景的应用 落地，订单合同逐步形成。海外市场方面，Figure获得10亿美元融资，特斯拉发布Optimus 3最新进展， 产品迭代升级显著。在政策支持与产业链企业合作加快的背景下，人形机器人产业有望进入快速发展 期。 工业母机ETF（159667）跟踪的是中证机床指数（931866），该指数从沪深市场中选取涉及机床整 机制造、数控系统、关键零部件供应等业务的上市公司证券作为指数样本，覆盖机械设备、电子、新能 源及机器人等领域。指数聚焦于中国机床产业链核心环节，旨在反映机床产业上市公司证券的整体表 现，兼具盈利稳健性和技术创新成长性特征。 没有股票账户的投资 ...

证券研究报告·行业点评报告 2025 年 9 月 23 日 江海证券研究发展部 执业证书编号：S1410524040001 自动化设备行业 机械军工行业研究组 分析师：张诗瑶 国内头部人形企业持续释放利好，特斯 拉发布 Optimus 3 新进展 事件： 行业评级：增持（维持） 9 月 21 日，上海 2025 浦江创新论坛发布《ITU 具身智能机器人标准化展望》、 《人形机器人数据集标准》及"浦江 X"具身智能标准化数据集平台"穹顶 DOME"。新标准聚焦人形机器人数据采集、标注、共享与安全规范，为产业 链提供统一接口与质量基准。"浦江 X"平台首期开放超 5 万条多模态数据，覆 盖工业、服务、医疗三大场景，支持在线调用与标注，助力具身智能技术快速 迭代与商业化落地。 投资要点： 江海证券有限公司及其关联机构在法律许可的情况下可能与本报告所分析的企业存在业务关系，并且继续寻求发展这些关系。因此，投资者应当考虑到本公司可能存在影响本报告客观性的 利益冲突，不应视本报告为投资决策的唯一因素。 敬请参阅最后一页之免责条款 注：2025 年 9 月 22 日数据 相关研究报告 1. 江海证券-行业点评报告-自动化设 ...

Core Viewpoint - The humanoid robot industry is transitioning from "function realization" to "capability evolution," driven by both policy support and commercial ambitions [4][5]. Group 1: Industry Trends - The Chinese government is promoting the application of humanoid robots in sectors like automotive manufacturing and logistics, laying the groundwork for a trillion-dollar market [5]. - The valuation of humanoid robot company Figure has reached $39 billion, indicating rapid recognition from global capital and suggesting a steep increase in future production [6]. - Tesla's CEO Elon Musk has set ambitious goals for the next-generation Optimus 3 robot, including fine motor skills and large-scale production capabilities [7][8]. Group 2: Production and Technological Challenges - A key operational goal for Tesla is to deliver 1 million humanoid robots, which is expected to accelerate production across the industry [8][9]. - Current humanoid robots typically have a battery life of less than 2 hours, far below the 8-hour standard required for commercial applications [9]. Group 3: Battery Technology Developments - Solid-state batteries are viewed as the ultimate solution, with companies like Panasonic and Guoxuan High-Tech making significant progress in development [11][12]. - Guoxuan High-Tech has launched a battery solution for all-terrain robots, capable of high discharge rates and over 3 hours of runtime, with a production capacity of 600 battery sets per day [14]. - Companies are innovating in liquid battery technology as they transition to solid-state solutions, with EVE Energy releasing products that support rapid charging and extended battery life [13][15]. Group 4: Diverse Strategies in Battery Solutions - All battery companies are focused on addressing core issues such as endurance, safety, fast charging, and lightweight design, with solid-state technology seen as a future high ground [16]. - Panasonic and Guoxuan High-Tech are aggressively pursuing solid-state battery technology, while EVE Energy and Guoxuan High-Tech are providing scalable solutions through continuous optimization [16]. - A diversified approach in battery technology is essential for driving humanoid robots towards mass production [17].

Market Overview - Technology stocks supported the S&P 500 and Nasdaq to continue reaching new highs, with the S&P 500 closing up 0.30% and the Dow down 0.48% [1] - Oracle's stock surged 36%, marking its largest increase since 1992, which positively impacted AI chip stocks like Broadcom and Nvidia [2] - The PPI data reinforced expectations for interest rate cuts, leading to a rebound in U.S. Treasury prices and a drop in yields to a five-month low [3] Currency and Commodity Trends - Following the PPI announcement, the U.S. dollar index declined, nearing a two-month low, while the offshore RMB rose over 100 points, approaching a ten-month high [4] - Oil prices have risen for three consecutive days, reaching a one-week high, while gold prices also increased, nearing record highs [5] Corporate Developments - Oracle signed a $300 billion computing agreement with OpenAI, which is expected to drive significant electricity demand of 4.5 GW [10] - Uber plans to integrate Blade's air travel service into its application [7] - Amazon is developing AR glasses, indicating a push into augmented reality technology [9] Investment Insights - Goldman Sachs reported that global hedge funds had the highest net buying of Chinese stocks since September 2024 [8] - The wearable device market in mainland China is projected to see a shipment of 33.9 million units in the first half of 2025, reflecting a 36% year-on-year growth [18] - The CXL DRAM module development by Changxin Storage is expected to drive a new wave of growth in the DRAM market, with a projected global market size of $15 billion by 2028 [16] Company Announcements - Tianpu Co. announced abnormal stock trading fluctuations and was suspended for review shortly after resuming trading [22] - Dongyangguang plans to jointly increase capital in Yichang Dongshu No. 1 Investment Co., with a total investment of RMB 75 billion [22] - Goldwind Technology intends to invest approximately RMB 18.92 billion in a wind power hydrogen ammonia project [22]

Group 1 - Japan's Prime Minister Ishiba Shigeru announced his resignation as the leader of the Liberal Democratic Party, citing a desire to avoid party division [5] - OpenAI is projected to achieve nearly $10 billion in revenue through ChatGPT this year, with total revenue expected to reach $13 billion [7] - A Brazilian billionaire has designated football star Neymar as the sole heir to his estate, valued at over $1 billion [2] Group 2 - The Chongqing Three Gorges University procurement incident revealed a significant discrepancy between the bid price of 850,000 yuan for a firewall and its actual market price of 299 yuan [3] - Former CSRC Chairman Yi Huiman is under investigation for serious violations of discipline and law [4] - Xiaomi clarified that the reported 300,000 hours of testing for its phones refers to cumulative testing across multiple devices, not a single device [6] Group 3 - The Chinese government plans to implement a kinetic impact verification mission on an asteroid, highlighting the potential threat of near-Earth asteroids [6] - Weima Automobile announced plans to resume production in September and aims for an IPO preparation within two years [11] - Hesai Technology has initiated a global issuance plan following its successful listing hearing in Hong Kong [12]

Market Overview - The US ADP employment growth significantly slowed to 54,000 in August, below the expected 68,000, indicating a cooling labor market and reinforcing rate cut expectations [4][10] - Initial jobless claims rose to 237,000, the highest level since June, exceeding the expected 230,000 [10][11] - The S&P 500 index reached a new high, while small-cap stocks outperformed the broader market with a 1.26% increase [2] - Amazon's stock rose over 4.2%, marking its best single-day performance since May, while Salesforce fell 4.88% after issuing a pessimistic revenue forecast [2] Company News - Broadcom reported a 63% year-over-year increase in AI chip revenue, with a mysterious new customer placing a $10 billion order, leading to expectations of a significant improvement in AI prospects for the next fiscal year [5][16] - Huawei launched its new foldable smartphone Mate XTs, priced from 17,999 yuan, featuring the Kirin 9020 chip, marking its return after four years [5][16][23] - Tesla's new "Optimus 3" prototype, resembling a human hand, has generated significant interest, with expectations that it could replace many high-salary jobs in the future [6][16] Industry Insights - The US services sector's ISM PMI expanded at its fastest pace in six months, with a reading of 52 in August, driven by strong order growth [10] - The US trade deficit widened to its largest level in four months, reaching $78.3 billion in July, primarily due to a surge in imports [11] - The North American market is seeing a tightening of regulations for cryptocurrency stocks, with Nasdaq implementing stricter rules to prevent market manipulation [14] - The Chinese humanoid robot market is projected to reach nearly 38 billion yuan by 2030, with a compound annual growth rate exceeding 61% from 2024 to 2030 [25][27]

Group 1: AI-Driven PCB Industry Expansion - The PCB industry is experiencing significant growth opportunities driven by the global AI wave, leading to substantial capital expenditure increases for related companies [3] - Demand for high-end products such as HDI, IC substrates, and high-frequency boards is accelerating due to the needs of AI servers, 5G communication, and electric vehicles [3] - Key players like Chipbond Technology are focusing on high-end and international strategies, with PCB equipment sales expected to exceed 370 units in 2024, a 35% year-on-year increase [3] Group 2: Eco-Optics and Industrial Vision - Eco-Optics is a leader in the domestic industrial machine vision sector, providing high-efficiency and high-precision inspection solutions for PCB manufacturing [4] - The company’s products meet international standards in resolution, image modes, acquisition speed, and noise control, serving major domestic PCB inspection equipment manufacturers [4] - The electronic manufacturing sector is expected to see a significant increase in shipment volume in 2024, with higher gross margins compared to other business segments [4] Group 3: Tesla's Financial Performance and Future Outlook - Tesla reported Q2 2025 revenue of $22.496 billion, a 12% year-on-year decline, with a gross profit of $3.878 billion, down 15% [5][6] - The automotive segment saw a significant revenue drop of 16% to $16.661 billion, attributed to decreased sales, reduced carbon credit income, and increased competition [6] - The Robotaxi pilot program has begun, with expectations for significant financial impact by the end of 2026, while the launch of the Optimus 3 model is anticipated by the end of 2025 [7][8] Group 4: Revenue and Profit Forecasts for Tesla - Revenue projections for Tesla from 2025 to 2027 are $86.218 billion, $92.307 billion, and $96.104 billion, reflecting year-on-year changes of -11.7%, +7.1%, and +4.1% respectively [8] - Net profit forecasts for the same period are $4.883 billion, $6.205 billion, and $7.238 billion, with corresponding PS valuations of 12.2, 11.4, and 10.9 times [8] - The report suggests monitoring Tesla's future Robotaxi developments and the rollout of affordable models, with an initial coverage rating of "overweight" [8]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight" [1] Core Views - The humanoid robot industry is entering a critical breakthrough phase, with global cumulative demand expected to reach approximately 2 million units by 2030 [4] - The report highlights the launch of new humanoid robots by companies like Yushu and UBTECH, indicating a competitive landscape with significant advancements in technology [4][5] - The report emphasizes the importance of focusing on leading companies in the humanoid robot supply chain, including those linked to Tesla, Huawei, and other key players [19] Summary by Sections Humanoid Robots - The report tracks the humanoid robot sector closely, noting the recent launch of Yushu's "Unitree R1" priced at 39,900 yuan, which is significantly lower than competitors [5] - UBTECH's Walker S2 is introduced as a full-sized industrial humanoid robot featuring proprietary AI technology, enabling both individual and collaborative operations [15] - The report suggests that the humanoid robot industry is poised for growth, with a focus on Tier 1 suppliers and core component manufacturers [4] Key Companies Recommended - The report recommends several companies for investment, including Sanhui Electric, Jingpin Special Equipment, Xinjie Electric, Beite Technology, Hanwei Technology, and others [2] - A core stock portfolio is presented, featuring companies like Sanhui Electric, Zhaowei Mechanical, and Softcom Power, among others [4] Industry Trends - The report identifies several key trends across various sectors, including: - Photovoltaic equipment with increasing N-type penetration and competitive advantages for leading companies [20] - Energy storage as a foundational element for new energy grids, with favorable policies enhancing industry prospects [20] - Semiconductor equipment demand projected to reach $140 billion by 2030, with a focus on domestic alternatives [20] - Automation and industrial consumables market expected to grow significantly, benefiting from increased concentration and import substitution [20] - Hydrogen energy aligned with carbon neutrality goals, with a focus on companies involved in green hydrogen production [21]

Core Viewpoint - Tesla's Q2 2025 earnings report showed a significant revenue decline, but the company remains optimistic about future developments and market positioning despite a nearly 5% drop in stock price following the announcement [1][3]. Financial Performance - Total revenue for Q2 was $22.5 billion, a 12% year-over-year decline, marking the largest quarterly drop in at least a decade, but close to market expectations of $22.8 billion [1]. - Net profit reached $1.172 billion, slightly above market expectations, with vehicle gross margin increasing by 2.5% to 15% due to new vehicle price increases and improved economies of scale [1]. - R&D expenses were $1.59 billion, and capital expenditures were $2.4 billion, both significantly higher than previous periods [1]. Business Segments - Automotive revenue was $16.7 billion, down 16% year-over-year; energy storage revenue was $2.789 billion, down 7%; and services and other revenue was $3.05 billion, up 17% [3]. - Global vehicle deliveries totaled 384,000 units, a 13.5% year-over-year decrease, with significant drops in Model 3/Y sales in several European countries [1][3]. Product Development and Future Plans - The launch of the affordable Model 2.5 has been delayed, with production expected to ramp up in Q4 [3][8]. - The Robotaxi service is set to expand significantly, with plans to cover half of the U.S. population by the end of the year [12][14]. - Tesla aims to enhance its Full Self-Driving (FSD) capabilities, with plans to increase model parameters by approximately tenfold and expand FSD to China and Europe [15][17]. AI and Robotics Initiatives - The Texas Gigafactory has deployed an additional 16,000 NVIDIA H200 GPUs, enhancing AI training capabilities [5]. - The Optimus 3 robot is expected to begin production next year, with a target of 100,000 units per month within five years [18][19]. Market Challenges - Tesla's market share in China has dropped from a peak of 15% in 2020 to 7.6%, with sales in Q2 at 128,800 units, a 5.4% year-over-year decline [8]. - The expiration of the $7,500 IRA subsidy in the U.S. is anticipated to negatively impact Q4 sales [8][11]. Management Insights - Elon Musk expressed concerns about his control over Tesla, indicating a desire to ensure stability against potential activist shareholder actions [6].

Group 1 - DJI officially announced the launch of its new robotic vacuum cleaner, the DJI ROMO series, scheduled for August 6, featuring a modern design and multiple versions including ROMO S, ROMO A, and ROMO P [1] - UBTECH launched the Walker S2, an industrial humanoid robot designed for smart manufacturing, featuring the BrainNet 2.0 and Co-Agent technology for autonomous operation and collaboration [5] - Elon Musk stated that Tesla aims to produce 1 million units of the Optimus 3 humanoid robot annually within five years, indicating confidence in the commercialization of humanoid robots [8] Group 2 - The S.1208 bill in Massachusetts aims to regulate the responsible use of advanced robotic technologies, making it illegal to modify or operate weaponized robots, with certain exceptions for defense and law enforcement [11] - TRIC Robotics raised $5.5 million in seed funding to develop autonomous robots for pest and disease control in specialty crops, starting with strawberries, using environmentally friendly methods [14]