2025 年 07 月 31 日 晨会纪要 研究所： 证券分析师： 余春生 S0350513090001 yucs@ghzq.com.cn [Table_Title] 晨会纪要 ——2025 年第 130 期 观点精粹: 最新报告摘要 AI 驱动高端 PCB 扩产，关注核心设备及部件--行业动态研究 短期基本面承压，关注未来 Robotaxi 进展--特斯拉/海外(TSLA/2180) 点评报告（港股美股） 证券研究报告 1、最新报告摘要 1.1、AI 驱动高端 PCB 扩产，关注核心设备及部件--行业动态研究 风险提示：AI 应用发展不及预期；PCB 扩产及资本开支不及预期；PCB 相关设备及部件竞争加剧风险；关注 标的产品研发及客户验证进度不及预期；重点关注公司业绩不达预期风险。 分析师：杜先康 S0350523080003 投资要点: 一方面，受益全球 AI 浪潮，PCB 产业迎来较大发展机遇，促使相关企业扩产，对应资本开支大幅增长。另一 方面，受 AI 服务器、5G 通信及新能源汽车需求驱动，HDI、IC 载板及高频高速板等高端产品加速渗透。综上， PCB 生产环节核心设备及关键部件未来需求增长可期。 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight" [1] Core Views - The humanoid robot industry is entering a critical breakthrough phase, with global cumulative demand expected to reach approximately 2 million units by 2030 [4] - The report highlights the launch of new humanoid robots by companies like Yushu and UBTECH, indicating a competitive landscape with significant advancements in technology [4][5] - The report emphasizes the importance of focusing on leading companies in the humanoid robot supply chain, including those linked to Tesla, Huawei, and other key players [19] Summary by Sections Humanoid Robots - The report tracks the humanoid robot sector closely, noting the recent launch of Yushu's "Unitree R1" priced at 39,900 yuan, which is significantly lower than competitors [5] - UBTECH's Walker S2 is introduced as a full-sized industrial humanoid robot featuring proprietary AI technology, enabling both individual and collaborative operations [15] - The report suggests that the humanoid robot industry is poised for growth, with a focus on Tier 1 suppliers and core component manufacturers [4] Key Companies Recommended - The report recommends several companies for investment, including Sanhui Electric, Jingpin Special Equipment, Xinjie Electric, Beite Technology, Hanwei Technology, and others [2] - A core stock portfolio is presented, featuring companies like Sanhui Electric, Zhaowei Mechanical, and Softcom Power, among others [4] Industry Trends - The report identifies several key trends across various sectors, including: - Photovoltaic equipment with increasing N-type penetration and competitive advantages for leading companies [20] - Energy storage as a foundational element for new energy grids, with favorable policies enhancing industry prospects [20] - Semiconductor equipment demand projected to reach $140 billion by 2030, with a focus on domestic alternatives [20] - Automation and industrial consumables market expected to grow significantly, benefiting from increased concentration and import substitution [20] - Hydrogen energy aligned with carbon neutrality goals, with a focus on companies involved in green hydrogen production [21]

Core Viewpoint - Tesla's Q2 2025 earnings report showed a significant revenue decline, but the company remains optimistic about future developments and market positioning despite a nearly 5% drop in stock price following the announcement [1][3]. Financial Performance - Total revenue for Q2 was $22.5 billion, a 12% year-over-year decline, marking the largest quarterly drop in at least a decade, but close to market expectations of $22.8 billion [1]. - Net profit reached $1.172 billion, slightly above market expectations, with vehicle gross margin increasing by 2.5% to 15% due to new vehicle price increases and improved economies of scale [1]. - R&D expenses were $1.59 billion, and capital expenditures were $2.4 billion, both significantly higher than previous periods [1]. Business Segments - Automotive revenue was $16.7 billion, down 16% year-over-year; energy storage revenue was $2.789 billion, down 7%; and services and other revenue was $3.05 billion, up 17% [3]. - Global vehicle deliveries totaled 384,000 units, a 13.5% year-over-year decrease, with significant drops in Model 3/Y sales in several European countries [1][3]. Product Development and Future Plans - The launch of the affordable Model 2.5 has been delayed, with production expected to ramp up in Q4 [3][8]. - The Robotaxi service is set to expand significantly, with plans to cover half of the U.S. population by the end of the year [12][14]. - Tesla aims to enhance its Full Self-Driving (FSD) capabilities, with plans to increase model parameters by approximately tenfold and expand FSD to China and Europe [15][17]. AI and Robotics Initiatives - The Texas Gigafactory has deployed an additional 16,000 NVIDIA H200 GPUs, enhancing AI training capabilities [5]. - The Optimus 3 robot is expected to begin production next year, with a target of 100,000 units per month within five years [18][19]. Market Challenges - Tesla's market share in China has dropped from a peak of 15% in 2020 to 7.6%, with sales in Q2 at 128,800 units, a 5.4% year-over-year decline [8]. - The expiration of the $7,500 IRA subsidy in the U.S. is anticipated to negatively impact Q4 sales [8][11]. Management Insights - Elon Musk expressed concerns about his control over Tesla, indicating a desire to ensure stability against potential activist shareholder actions [6].

Group 1 - DJI officially announced the launch of its new robotic vacuum cleaner, the DJI ROMO series, scheduled for August 6, featuring a modern design and multiple versions including ROMO S, ROMO A, and ROMO P [1] - UBTECH launched the Walker S2, an industrial humanoid robot designed for smart manufacturing, featuring the BrainNet 2.0 and Co-Agent technology for autonomous operation and collaboration [5] - Elon Musk stated that Tesla aims to produce 1 million units of the Optimus 3 humanoid robot annually within five years, indicating confidence in the commercialization of humanoid robots [8] Group 2 - The S.1208 bill in Massachusetts aims to regulate the responsible use of advanced robotic technologies, making it illegal to modify or operate weaponized robots, with certain exceptions for defense and law enforcement [11] - TRIC Robotics raised $5.5 million in seed funding to develop autonomous robots for pest and disease control in specialty crops, starting with strawberries, using environmentally friendly methods [14]

Core Viewpoint - The company is making adjustments for the Optimus 3 prototype, which is expected to be completed this year and enter mass production next year [1] Group 1 - The company is focused on the development of the Optimus 3 prototype [1] - Completion of the prototype is anticipated within this year [1] - Mass production of the Optimus 3 is projected to begin next year [1]

Core Viewpoint - Elon Musk stated that the design of Optimus 3 does not have significant flaws [1] Group 1 - The company is focusing on the development and improvement of the Optimus 3 model [1] - Musk's comments suggest confidence in the product's design and functionality [1]