作者：Amanda Townsley （芝商所能源研究及产品开发高级总监） 2025年能源市场被频发的贸易紧张局势和地缘政治不确定性所笼罩，这一定程度上掩盖了天然气和石油 市场正在发生的结构性转型。2026年是否仍将延续这一局面？以下是影响2026年能源市场的五大关键因 素。 1. 液化天然气浪潮 2026年将开启全球液化天然气（LNG）扩张浪潮，有人将其比作 "海啸"式扩张。预计从2026年至2028 年，全球将有大量的新的天然气液化产能投产，成为史上规模最大的一轮液化天然气供给扩张。 天然气交易员将密切关注已进入启动阶段的美国液化天然气项目进展，以及预计于2026年至2027年投产 的相关项目。液化天然气的产能扩张意味着美国原料气需求将大幅增加，而原料气需求的预期增长发生 延迟可能对亨利港期货价格形成压力。截至2025年12月，亨利港期货价格已上升至每百万英热单位4.70 美元以上。 预计非欧佩克产油国的原供应量将继续增长，可能对油价产生下行压力 鉴于石油需求、油价与股市之间的强相关性，人工智能可能成为2026年WTI原油价格的关键影响 因素 尽管WTI原油价格在2025年跌至每桶60美元以下，非欧佩克国 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment view on LPG is "oscillating with a slight upward bias" [5] Core Viewpoints - The prices of January CP propane and butane have strengthened beyond expectations, but domestic demand remains stagnant. Combustion demand is basically stable but weaker year - on - year, and although the chemical demand maintains high - level operation, the profits are deeply in the red, so it's hard to say that the demand is improving. In the short term, the PG price is expected to fluctuate within a range, and attention should be paid to the impact of geopolitical situations on the PG price [5] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Review - During this period, the main contract of LPG futures trended upward, with a fluctuation range of 4,100 - 4,250 yuan/ton. The positive news of the high - opening of January CP still exists, and some downstream users replenished their stocks after the New Year's Day. Most of the domestic markets rose, and the price in South China reached over 5,000 yuan. The market sentiment was strong, and the LPG futures outperformed crude oil under the support of domestic and international spot prices. However, the demand side did not improve. As of Thursday this week, the basis in East China was 268 yuan/ton, in South China was 656 yuan/ton, and in Shandong was 201 yuan/ton. The lowest deliverable product was priced in Shandong. As of Thursday this week, the total number of LPG warehouse receipts on the Dalian Commodity Exchange was 6,248 lots [6] Supply - Last week, the total commercial volume of LPG was about 51.81 million tons (a decrease of 1.07%). Among them, the commercial volume of civil gas was 21.68 million tons (a decrease of 3.26%), industrial gas was 18.95 million tons (an increase of 1.12%), and ether - after C4 was 16.73 million tons (an increase of 1.33%). The arrival volume of LPG last week was 53 million tons (a decrease of 7.04%). During the week, some enterprises in East China and Northeast China used resources internally, and the external sales volume of an individual enterprise in Shaanxi increased, resulting in a decrease in the weekly commercial volume [5] Demand - In winter, the heating demand remains, and the combustion demand for LPG is gradually improving, reaching a relatively high level. PDH plants are operating at a high load, but the plant profit losses are intensifying. The propane procurement demand of port chemical enterprises is relatively rigid, but there have been reports of plant production cuts recently, and the operating rate is expected to decline gradually, leading to a decline in propane chemical demand. MTBE profits are in the red, the overseas olefin blending demand has slowed down, the domestic export window has closed, most orders have been executed, and it is difficult for refineries to maintain high - level operation, which in turn restricts the price trend of civil gas [5] Inventory - Last week, the in - plant inventory of LPG was 213.20 million tons (a decrease of 0.41%), and the port inventory was 249.60 million tons. On the refinery side, the high import cost continued to provide positive support. Coupled with downstream replenishment after the festival, the market trading atmosphere was good, and each manufacturer's shipments were stable, resulting in a decrease in inventory. On the port side, the number of arriving ships this period was limited. Except for the increase in arriving ships in South China and Fujian, the number in other areas decreased, and the import resource supply was insufficient. The terminals mainly focused on inventory digestion [5] Basis and Position - The weekly average basis was 246 yuan/ton in East China, 619 yuan/ton in South China, and 179 yuan/ton in Shandong. The total number of LPG warehouse receipts was 6,218 lots, an increase of 30 lots, and the lowest deliverable location was Shandong [5][9] Chemical Downstream - The operating rates of PDH, MTBE, and alkylation were [not clearly stated]. The profits of PDH to propylene were - 832 yuan/ton, MTBE isomerization was - 70 yuan/ton, and alkylation in Shandong was - 330 yuan/ton [5] Valuation - The PG - SC ratio was 1.33 (an increase of 2.04%), and the PG spread between the main and secondary months was 85 yuan/ton (a decrease of 28.57%). In the fourth quarter, the gas price was firm, while the crude oil price showed a downward trend, and the oil - gas cracking spread showed a weakening trend [5] Other Factors - China's CPI year - on - year growth rate in December 2025 was the fastest in nearly three years; the US ADP employment data in December showed that labor demand was still weak. The State - owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission of the State Council announced that, with the approval of the State Council, Sinopec and China National Aviation Fuel Group will implement a restructuring. Iran is implementing a nationwide network control, which is related to ongoing protests in many places. Trump arrested Maduro and summoned enterprises such as ExxonMobil and Chevron to the White House to discuss the oil investment plan in Venezuela. The events of the Trump administration's attempt to occupy Greenland and seize Russian oil tankers have fermented again, triggering market panic about geopolitics [5] Trading Strategies - For unilateral trading, it is recommended to wait and see; for arbitrage, pay attention to PG2 - 3 positive spreads, PG3 - 4 reverse spreads, long SC and short PG, and long PP and short PG [5]

一、液化天然气浪潮 2026年将开启全球液化天然气(LNG)扩张浪潮，有人将其比作"海啸"式扩张。预计从2026年至2028年，全球将有大量的新的天然气液化产能投 产，成为史上规模最大的一轮液化天然气供给扩张。 天然气交易员将密切关注已进入启动阶段的美国液化天然气项目进展，以及预计于2026年至2027年投产的相关项目。液化天然气的产能扩张意味 着美国原料气需求将大幅增加，而原料气需求的预期增长发生延迟可能对亨利港期货价格形成压力。截至2025年12月，亨利港期货价格已上升至 每百万英热单位4.70美元以上。 预计非欧佩克产油国的原供应量将继续增长，可能对油价产生下行压力 鉴于石油需求、油价与股市之间的强相关性，人工智能可能成为2026年WTI原油价格的关键影响因素 2025年能源市场被频发的贸易紧张局势和地缘政治不确定性所笼罩，这一定程度上掩盖了天然气和石油市场正在发生的结构性转型。2026年是否 仍将延续这一局面？以下是影响2026年能源市场的五大关键因素。 2026年投产的的液化天然气还包括卡塔尔日产达43亿立方英尺的北方气田东部(North Field East)项目。随着北方气田东部项目、美国境内项 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment view on LPG is "oscillating bearish" [4] 2. Core View of the Report - In the short - term, PG prices have fallen from high levels. The upstream PG fundamentals lack obvious drivers and tend to be weak. The supply - demand of propylene in the intermediate link is under pressure, and the short - term demand for PP is saturated with a shutdown expectation in the later period. The PDH profit is expected to decline further. Attention should be paid to the flow of warehouse receipts in the market, macro and geopolitical risks [4] 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - The main contract of LPG futures declined, with a fluctuation range of 4230 - 4490 yuan/ton. In the first half of the week, the international crude oil price dropped, suppressing the market trend. Both domestic and foreign spot prices fell, and the sentiment of market participants was weak, leading to a rapid decline in the market. However, the domestic propane demand increased month - on - month, the combustion demand improved successively, and the demand expectation increased. In the second half of the week, the crude oil price rebounded, and the market rebounded slightly after reaching the bottom [5] 3.2 Domestic LPG Delivery Product Spot Price and Basis - **Spot Price**: In different regions, the prices of civil gas, imported gas, and ether - post - C4 have different changes. For example, in the East China region, the average price of civil gas decreased by 0.50% week - on - week; in the South China region, the price of Maoming civil gas remained unchanged week - on - week [7] - **Basis**: The weekly average basis in East China was 126.80 yuan/ton, in South China was 357.80 yuan/ton, and in Shandong was 301.80 yuan/ton. The total number of LPG warehouse receipts increased by 1353 to 14327 lots, and the lowest deliverable area was East China [4] 3.3 LPG Futures Price, Inter - month Spread, and Cross - month Spread - **Futures Price**: The prices of different LPG futures contracts (PG01 - PG12) showed different degrees of decline compared with the previous week and month. For example, PG01 decreased by 4.36% week - on - week and 1.83% month - on - month [8] - **Inter - month Spread**: The inter - month spreads (such as PG01 - PG02, PG02 - PG03, etc.) also had different changes compared with the previous week and month. For example, the spread of PG01 - PG02 decreased by 6.06% week - on - week and increased by 3.33% month - on - month [8] - **Cross - month Spread**: The cross - month spreads (such as PG01 - PG03, PG02 - PG04, etc.) also showed different trends. For example, the spread of PG01 - PG03 decreased by 6.04% week - on - week and 4.76% month - on - month [8] - **Arbitrage**: There are month - to - month and cross - month arbitrage strategies. For example, in month - to - month arbitrage, the spread between PG2511 and PG2512 was 7.9 on the day, and the z - score was 1.7318 [8] 3.4 Refinery Device Maintenance Plan - **Main Refineries**: Many main refineries in China have device maintenance plans in 2025, including full - plant maintenance and partial device maintenance of some refineries such as Beihai Refining and Chemical, Hainan Refining and Chemical, etc. [9] - **Local Refineries**: Local refineries in Shandong, Northeast, Central China, and Northwest regions also have corresponding device maintenance plans, such as the full - plant maintenance of Shenchi Chemical, Xin泰 Petrochemical, etc. [9] 3.5 LPG Production Device and PDH Device Maintenance Plan - **LPG Production Device**: Some LPG production enterprises in China have device maintenance plans in 2025, such as Zhenghe Petrochemical, Huaxing Petrochemical, etc. [10] - **PDH Device**: Some PDH devices in China are in normal operation, while some are in shutdown or maintenance. For example, Qingdao Jinneng Phase I is in shutdown for maintenance, and it is expected to restart on October 1st [11] 3.6 Fundamental Factors Affecting LPG - **Supply**: Last week, the total commercial volume of LPG was about 539,200 tons. The commercial volume of civil gas was 211,200 tons (a decrease of 4.76%), industrial gas was 212,500 tons (a decrease of 0.75%), and ether - post - C4 was 170,130 tons (a decrease of 1.64%). The arrival volume of LPG last week was 650,000 tons. A refinery in Shandong plans to conduct maintenance this week, and some enterprises will reduce production, so the domestic commercial volume is expected to decline [4] - **Demand**: The combustion demand is gradually coming to an end, and the traditional peak - season logic is weakening. In the deep - processing of C4, affected by new energy substitution, the gasoline demand is weakening. The profit of MTBE is inverted, but the operating rate is high. The profit of alkylated gasoline has turned from profit to loss, and the loss of isobutane dehydrogenation profit is relatively deep. The ether - post - market may fall and stabilize. In the deep - processing of C3, the utilization rate of PDH production capacity is expected to decline. After the National Day, the operating rate may drop below 65%. The price of propylene in the intermediate link has fallen, and the terminal PP demand is saturated. The PDH device has shown continuous losses from propylene to PP, and the profit negative feedback effect has emerged [4] - **Inventory**: Last week, the factory inventory of LPG was 188,100 tons (an increase of 4.33%), and the port inventory was 3.1366 million tons (a decrease of 3.01%). The storage capacity utilization rate of the domestic LPG market increased last week. The inventory reduction in Northeast, Shandong, and Central China was relatively smooth through price concessions, but affected by adverse factors such as typhoon extreme weather and supply increase, the inventory in East China, South China, North China, and the West continued to increase. At the port, the arrival of ships decreased, and the replenishment of imported resources was insufficient [4] - **Basis and Position**: The weekly average basis in East China was 126.80 yuan/ton, in South China was 357.80 yuan/ton, and in Shandong was 301.80 yuan/ton. The total number of LPG warehouse receipts was 14,327 lots, an increase of 1,353 lots, and the lowest deliverable area was East China [4] - **Chemical Downstream**: The operating rates of PDH, MTBE, and alkylation were 69.48%, 58.35%, and 45.51% respectively. The profit of PDH to propylene was - 349 yuan/ton, the profit of MTBE isomerization was - 90 yuan/ton, and the profit of alkylation in Shandong was - 13 yuan/ton [4] - **Valuation**: The PG - SC ratio was - 2.47%, and the spread between PG continuous first and continuous second months was 79 yuan/ton. The continuous increase in crude oil production has dragged down the cost section, and the PG - SC cracking spread has continued to strengthen [4] - **Other Factors**: Crude oil is in a fundamental surplus expectation caused by geopolitical factors, sanctions, and OPEC+ production increase, and maintains range - bound trading. The non - farm payrolls data in the United States in August was lower than market expectations, with an increase in the number of unemployed people, a month - on - month decline in PPI and CPI, and economic slowdown. The Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 25bp as expected, and it is expected to cut interest rates by 50bp or more within the year. Geopolitical situations in Russia - Ukraine, US - Venezuela, and the Middle East are frequently disturbed in the short term and tend to be tense [4] 3.7 Investment and Trading Strategies - **Investment View**: The upstream PG fundamentals lack obvious drivers and tend to be weak. The supply - demand of propylene in the intermediate link is under pressure, and the short - term demand for PP is saturated with a shutdown expectation in the later period. The PDH profit is expected to decline further. Overall, in the short - term, PG prices have fallen from high levels, and the profit negative feedback effect of downstream PDH is prominent [4] - **Trading Strategy**: For unilateral trading, it is recommended to wait and see temporarily. For arbitrage, the strategies include going long on PP2601 and short on PL2601, going long on PP2601 and short on PG2601, and going long on SC and short on PG [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment view on LPG is "oscillating bearish" [3] 2. Core View of the Report - The upstream PG fundamentals lack obvious drivers. The intermediate - link propylene had good trading last week due to the previous cost increase and demand improvement, but PP faces saturated demand and the peak - season effect is weak, with poor price transmission efficiency. In the short term, PG shows a downward trend from its high level, and the negative feedback effect of downstream PDH profits is prominent. Attention should be paid to the flow of warehouse receipts on the disk, as well as macro and geopolitical risks [3] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - The main contract of the LPG futures fluctuated after rising, with an average price increase and a fluctuation range of 4430 - 4520 yuan/ton. The international market was strong, supporting the market trend, and the price reached a recent high. The domestic spot market was average, with both rises and falls, and the basis continued to weaken. In terms of demand, the chemical demand for propane slightly declined, but the combustion demand was expected to improve, and downstream enterprises replenished stocks, resulting in a decrease in production enterprise inventories. However, the arrival of ships increased, and port inventories rose. As of Thursday this week, the basis in East China was 2 yuan/ton, in South China was 150 yuan/ton, and in Shandong was 70 yuan/ton. The lowest deliverable product was priced in East China [5] 3.2 Supply - Last week, the total domestic LPG commercial volume was about 538,500 tons (a decrease of 0.20%). Among them, the commercial volume of civil gas was 201,600 tons (a decrease of 1.75%), industrial gas was 214,100 tons, and ether - after C4 was 182,600 tons (an increase of 0.76%). The arrival volume of LPG last week was 650,000 tons. Some refineries increased self - use last week, and a plant in the Northwest resumed operation, so the supply slightly declined. A refinery in Shandong plans to conduct maintenance this week, but the plants of maintenance enterprises in the Northwest and other places continue to resume operation. It is expected that the domestic commercial volume may slightly increase [3] 3.3 Demand - The combustion demand is gradually coming to an end, and the traditional peak - season logic is fading. In the C4 deep - processing sector, affected by new - energy substitution, gasoline demand has weakened. The profit of MTBE is inverted but the operating rate is at a high level, the profit of alkylated gasoline has turned from profit to loss, the loss of isobutane dehydrogenation profit is relatively deep, and the ether - after market may decline and stabilize. In the C3 deep - processing sector, the utilization rate of PDH production capacity is relatively stable, and the operating rate remains at a medium - to - high level. The price of propylene in the intermediate link has declined, and the terminal PP demand is saturated. There are continuous losses from the PDH unit to the propylene and PP links, and a negative profit feedback effect has emerged [3] 3.4 Inventory - Last week, the in - plant inventory of LPG was 180,300 tons (an increase of 0.67%), and the port inventory was 3,234,000 tons (an increase of 1.49%). The domestic LPG inventory varied last week. Affected by factors such as increased supply and weak demand in the West, Central China and other regions, the supply increased to some extent. In Shandong, North China, South China and other regions, the demand was stable, and manufacturers could control shipments, so the inventory pressure was relieved. At the ports, the number of arriving ships increased slightly. With the increase in imported resources and the decline in demand, the port inventory showed a trend of accumulation [3] 3.5 Basis and Position - The weekly average basis was - 840 yuan/ton in East China, 1062 yuan/ton in South China, and 532 yuan/ton in Shandong. The total number of LPG warehouse receipts was 13,002 lots, a decrease of 1 lot, and the lowest deliverable area was Shandong [3] 3.6 Chemical Downstream - The operating rates of PDH, MTBE, and alkylation were 64.58%, 55.81%, and 43.82% respectively. The profits of PDH to propylene, MTBE isomerization, and alkylation in Shandong were - 256 yuan/ton, - 200 yuan/ton, and - 90.50 yuan/ton respectively [3] 3.7 Valuation - The PG - SC ratio was - 4.35%, and the PG continuous - first to continuous - second monthly spread was not available. Due to the continuous increase in crude - oil production and the drag on the cost side, the PG - SC cracking spread continued to strengthen [3] 3.8 Other Factors - In October, OPEC+ will start the second round of production - increase cycle, and the EIA weekly crude - oil inventory showed a significant decline. The US non - farm payrolls data in August was lower than market expectations, with an increase in the number of unemployed, a month - on - month decline in PPI and CPI, and an economic slowdown. The Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 25 basis points as expected, and it is expected that there will be two more interest - rate cuts this year. The geopolitical situations in Russia - Ukraine, US - Venezuela, and the Middle East still tend to be tense, and the war may further escalate [3] 3.9 Trading Strategy - For unilateral trading, it is recommended to wait and see temporarily. For arbitrage, the strategies are to go long on PP2601 and short on PL2601, go long on PP2601 and short on PG2601, and go long on SC and short on PG [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment view on LPG is "oscillating", indicating a neutral stance in the short - term [4]. Report's Core View - The LPG market shows a situation of "weak oil and strong gas". PG prices are firm due to freight and capital factors. The supply - demand contradiction of propylene in the intermediate link is alleviated, and the terminal PP demand is saturated, resulting in continuous and substantial losses in PDH profits. In the short - term, PG prices are expected to oscillate strongly, with a relatively low current valuation. Attention should be paid to the flow of warehouse receipts and geopolitical risks [4]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Market Review - The main contract of LPG futures fluctuated and rose, with a range of 4360 - 4470 yuan/ton. The spot price trend was weaker than the futures, and the basis weakened. International crude oil prices first fell and then rose, and the trend of PG futures was basically the same as that of crude oil. International LPG prices increased, but domestic spot prices showed both increases and decreases. Chemical demand declined significantly, and the profits of multiple chemical plants continued to be in the red. The internal valuation of futures prices was neutral. The weekly average basis was 37 yuan/ton in East China, 120 yuan/ton in South China, and 30 yuan/ton in Shandong, with the lowest deliverable standard being in Shandong [7]. 2. Influencing Factors Supply - Last week, the total commercial volume of LPG was about 53.74 million tons, including 20.52 million tons of civil gas, 21.04 million tons of industrial gas, and 17.89 million tons of ether - after carbon four. The arrival volume of LPG last week was 65 million tons. With the resumption of some devices in East China and Shandong last week, the supply increased. A refinery in Shandong plans to conduct maintenance this week, and it is expected that the domestic commercial volume may decline [4]. Demand - The combustion demand is gradually coming to an end, and the traditional peak - season logic is weakening, but the price of civil gas remains firm in the short - term. In the carbon - four deep - processing sector, affected by new - energy substitution, gasoline demand has weakened. The profit of MTBE is inverted, but the operating rate is at a high level. The profit of alkylated gasoline has changed from profit to loss, and the loss of isobutane dehydrogenation profit is relatively deep. The ether - after market may decline and stabilize. In the carbon - three deep - processing sector, the utilization rate of PDH production capacity is relatively stable, and the operating rate remains at a medium - to - high level. The price of propylene in the intermediate link has declined, and the terminal PP demand is saturated. There are continuous losses from the PDH device to the propylene and PP links [4]. Inventory - Last week, the factory inventory of LPG was 17.91 million tons, and the port inventory was 318.65 million tons. The domestic LPG inventory continued to increase. Although the trading and transportation capacity resumed after the end of large - scale domestic events, the inventory pressure in some northern regions was gradually relieved. However, in other regions, due to increased supply and weak demand, the shipment volume decreased to varying degrees, and the refinery storage capacity utilization rate continued to rise. At the ports, the number of incoming ships decreased slightly, but the unloading volume was more than the arrival volume, with little change compared to last week. Coupled with the downward trend of overall chemical demand, the port inventory increased slightly [4]. Basis and Position - The weekly average basis was a certain value in East China, South China, and Shandong. The total number of LPG warehouse receipts increased by 6, and the lowest deliverable area was Shandong [4]. Chemical Downstream - The operating rates of PDH, MTBE, and alkylation were 70.49%, 55.81%, and 46.17% respectively. The profits of PDH to propylene, MTBE isomerization, and alkylation in Shandong were - 52 yuan/ton, - 291 yuan/ton, and - 180.50 yuan/ton respectively [4]. Valuation - The PG - SC ratio was a certain value, and the PG continuous - one to continuous - two month spread was a certain value. With the continuous increase in crude oil production, the cost segment was dragged down, and the PG - SC cracking spread continued to strengthen [4]. Other Factors - In October, OPEC+ increased production by 137,000 barrels again, starting the second round of the production - increase cycle to regain market share. The US non - farm payrolls data in August was lower than market expectations, with an increase in the number of unemployed, a month - on - month decline in PPI and CPI, and an enhanced expectation of economic slowdown and interest - rate cuts. The geopolitical situations in Russia - Ukraine, US - Venezuela, and the Middle East still tend to be tense, and the war may further escalate [4]. 3. Trading Strategy - For unilateral trading, it is recommended to wait and see temporarily. For arbitrage, the strategies are to go long on PP2601 and short on PL2601, go long on PP2601 and short on PG2601, and go long on PG2510 and short on SC2510 [4].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Core View of the Report The fundamentals of LPG have improved, and the combustion demand has recovered. Both the domestic and overseas PG markets are running stably. The CP price remains stable, the demand for propane and butane in the Far East has been repaired periodically, and the high - level warehouse receipts are driving the PG reverse spread operation. In the short term, the PG futures price is affected by delivery and is expected to decline, but the overseas price is stable, and there is an expectation of subsequent repair [4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Energy and Chemical Product Price Monitoring - Different energy and chemical products have different price trends. For example, the current price of LPG is 4,411 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 0.05%, a weekly increase of 0.55%, a monthly increase of 14.42%, and an annual decrease of 12.34% [3]. 3.2 LPG Fundamental Analysis - **Supply**: Last week, the total LPG commodity volume was about 650,000 tons (a decrease of 0.17%). The civil LPG commodity volume was 215,400 tons (a decrease of 1.03%), the industrial LPG was 206,200 tons (a decrease of 2.95%), and the ether - after C4 was 174,700 tons (a decrease of 3.03%). The LPG arrival volume last week was at a relatively low level, and the import resource supplement was limited. Some enterprises in Shandong resumed production, and the commodity volume increased month - on - month [4]. - **Demand**: The combustion demand has recovered, supporting the firm price of civil LPG. In the C4 deep - processing aspect, the domestic crude oil processing volume increased month - on - month, but the MTBE profit was inverted, and the alkylated gasoline profit turned from profit to loss. In the C3 deep - processing aspect, the PDH maintenance was concentrated and restarted, and the operating rate increased, which supported the demand, but the performance of propylene and terminal PP was average [4]. - **Inventory**: Last week, the LPG inventory in domestic factories was 171,700 tons (a decrease of 1.96%), and the port inventory was 3,075,200 tons (a decrease of 2.98%). The LPG inventory in various regions of the country showed a downward trend, and the fundamentals in various regions were gradually improving. The port arrival volume decreased significantly, but the unloading volume was more than the arrival volume, and the overall import resources showed a downward trend [4]. - **Basis and Position**: The weekly average basis in East China was 112 yuan/ton, in South China was 171 yuan/ton, and in Shandong was 132 yuan/ton. The total number of LPG warehouse receipts was 13,207 lots, an increase of 320 lots, and the lowest deliverable area was East China [4]. - **Chemical Downstream**: The operating rates of PDH, MTBE, and alkylation were 73.02%, 54.43%, and 48.29% respectively. The profits of PDH to propylene, MTBE isomerization, and alkylation in Shandong were 117 yuan/ton, - 531 yuan/ton, and - 328 yuan/ton respectively [4]. - **Valuation**: The PG - SC ratio was 2.29%, and the PG continuous first - continuous second monthly spread was 87 yuan/ton. The continuous increase in crude oil production dragged down the cost section, and the PG - SC cracking spread continued to strengthen [4]. - **Others**: OPEC+ continued to increase production, and EIA and IEA relaxed the supply - demand balance sheet, so crude oil was regarded as bearish in the long term. The newly added RMB loans of financial institutions in July showed negative growth, and the M2 - M1 scissors gap narrowed to 3.2%. The government launched consumer loan interest subsidies, and the domestic economy still faced pressure. The country phased out backward petrochemical production capacity below 2 million tons and upgraded technological facilities, and South Korea reduced the naphtha cracking capacity by 2.7 million tons [4]. 3.3 LPG Market Review - The main contract of LPG futures fluctuated higher, with a fluctuation range of 4,270 - 4,400 yuan/ton. The main contract this week was PG2510, which is a traditional peak - season contract. Although the crude oil price fell, the domestic spot market rebounded from the bottom, and the peak - season demand was expected to be strong. Coupled with the increase in import costs, the sellers pushed up the price, and the futures price followed the spot price higher. The domestic transaction price increased, but the increase was small, and the basis weakened this week. The lowest deliverable product was priced in East China. As of Thursday this week, the total number of LPG warehouse receipts on the Dalian Commodity Exchange was 13,283 lots, an increase of 335 lots compared with last Thursday [5]. 3.4 LPG Futures Price, Monthly Spread, and Cross - Month Spread Overview - **Futures Price**: The prices of different LPG futures contracts showed different trends. For example, the current price of PG01 was 4,202 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month decrease of 1.89% [10]. - **Monthly Spread**: The monthly spreads of different contracts also showed different trends. For example, the current PG01 - PG02 monthly spread was 60 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month decrease of 34.07% [10]. - **Cross - Month Spread**: The cross - month spreads of different contracts also had different changes. For example, the current PG01 - PG03 cross - month spread was 147 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month decrease of 14.53% [10]. 3.5 Refinery and Device Maintenance Plan - **Main Refineries**: Many main refineries in China had maintenance plans in 2025, including Sinopec, PetroChina, and CNOOC refineries. For example, Beihai Refining and Chemical had a full - plant maintenance from March 25 to June 6, 2025, with a processing capacity of 6.4 million tons [12]. - **Local Refineries**: Some local refineries also had maintenance plans, mainly in Shandong, Northeast, Central China, and North China. For example, Zhonghaiwai Energy in Rizhao had a normal - pressure distillation unit maintenance starting from May 25, 2025 [12]. - **LPG Factories**: Many LPG factories in China had device maintenance in 2025. For example, Shengli Heavy Oil Plant in Shandong had a full - plant maintenance from June 16 to mid - August 2025, with a normal production volume of 400 tons/day [14]. - **PDH Devices**: Some PDH devices in China had maintenance or shutdown situations. For example, Wanhua Chemical (Penglai) in Shandong planned to have a two - week maintenance starting from August 22, 2025 [15]. 3.6 Market Price and Spread Charts - The report also provided a series of market price and spread charts, including domestic and overseas LPG prices, basis, monthly spreads, cross - month spreads, and cross - variety spreads, to show the historical trends and changes of these indicators [19][21][27]