Tabl e_Title 2025 年 12 月 15 日 大类资产运行周报（20251208-20251212） 风险提示：美国通胀数据改善不及预期 大类资产运行报告 全球主要资产表现 | | 近一周变动 | | --- | --- | | 新兴市场股市指数 | 0.33% | | Table_Fi rstSto ck 发达市场股市指数 主要资产涨跌幅表现 | -0.24% | | 全球债券指数 | 0.03% | | 全球国债指数 | 0.01% | | 全球信用债指数 姓名 | 0.01% 分析师 | | 美元指数 | -0.59% SAC 执业证书编号：S1111111111111 | | RJ/CRB 商品价格指数 | Xxxxxx @essence.com.cn -2.51% | | | 021-68767839 | | 标普高盛商品全收益指数 | -2.92% | 丁沛舟 高级分析师 期货从业资格号：F3002969 投资咨询从业证书号：Z0012005 dingpz@essence.com.cn 010-58747724 相关报告 大类资产运行周报（20250915 -20250919）-美联 ...

Report Overview - Report Title: Weekly Report on the Operation of Major Asset Classes (20250922 - 20250926) - US Inflation Data Meets Expectations, with Commodities Rising Overall [1] - Timeframe: September 22 - September 26, 2025 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Global: The market's performance last week was influenced by economic data. The US 8 - month PCE year - on - year growth rate met market expectations. The dollar index ended the week higher, stocks and bonds declined, and commodities rose. In general, commodities > stocks > bonds in terms of dollar - denominated assets [4][7]. - Domestic: China's industrial enterprise profits returned to positive growth in August year - on - year. The stock market and commodities ended the week higher, and the bond market declined. Overall, commodities > stocks > bonds [4][20]. - Outlook: The focus is on the release of domestic and foreign macro - data during the National Day. There are important data such as non - farm payrolls to be released, leading to high market uncertainty. After the holiday, price fluctuations of major asset classes may increase [4][27]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Global Major Asset Performance 3.1.1 Global Stock Market - Most global stock markets declined. US stocks had a weekly correction. From a regional perspective, the three major US stock indexes ended the week lower, with a relatively large decline in the Asia - Pacific region. Emerging markets underperformed developed markets, and the VIX index continued to operate at a low level [9]. - Specific index performance: MSCI US was down 0.35%, S&P 500 was down 0.31%, MSCI Asia - Pacific was down 1.02%, etc. [12][13] 3.1.2 Global Bond Market - Fed officials had some differences in the path of dollar interest rate cuts this year. Medium - and long - term US bond yields generally rose. The yield of the 10 - year US Treasury bond rose 6BP to 4.2% weekly, and the bond market declined. Globally, high - yield bonds > credit bonds > government bonds [16]. 3.1.3 Global Foreign Exchange Market - The initial value of the month - on - month growth rate of US durable goods orders in August far exceeded expectations. The dollar index rose weekly, and most non - US currencies depreciated against the dollar. The RMB exchange rate fluctuated weakly. The weekly increase of the dollar index was 0.55% [17]. 3.1.4 Global Commodity Market - Geopolitical factors caused disruptions again, and international oil prices ended the week higher. Expectations of dollar interest rate cuts supported international precious metal prices. Most industrial metals and agricultural product prices fell [19]. 3.2 Domestic Major Asset Performance 3.2.1 Domestic Stock Market - Market sentiment changed little. Most of the major broad - based A - share indexes rose. The average daily trading volume of the two markets decreased compared with the previous week. In terms of style, the Science and Technology Innovation 50 Index had the highest increase. In terms of sectors, electronics and non - ferrous metals led the gains, while consumer services underperformed. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.21% weekly [21]. 3.2.2 Domestic Bond Market - The central bank's net injection in the open market operation was 940.6 billion yuan. The liquidity marginally eased, and the bond market was weak. Overall, corporate bonds > credit bonds > government bonds [25]. 3.2.3 Domestic Commodity Market - The domestic commodity market continued to rise weekly. Among the major commodity sectors, precious metals led the gains, while the black - related sectors underperformed [26].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - From June 16th to June 20th, the Fed's June FOMC meeting kept rates unchanged, the Middle - East geopolitical situation further escalated, the US dollar index rose weekly, stocks and bonds were weak, and commodities continued to rise. In general, commodities > bonds > stocks in terms of USD - denominated assets [3][6]. - In China, from June 16th to June 20th, the year - on - year growth rate of industrial added value of large - scale industries in May was lower than expected, the year - on - year growth rate of total retail sales of consumer goods in May was higher than expected, and the year - on - year growth rate of urban fixed - asset investment from January to May was 3.7%, lower than expected. The year - on - year decline of national real estate development investment from January to May was 10.7%. The stock market declined, and the bond market and commodities rose. Generally, commodities > bonds > stocks [3]. - The market will focus on the Middle - East situation in the short term. The price fluctuations of related large - scale assets, especially energy prices, may increase. It is necessary to closely monitor the situation [3][23]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Global Large - scale Asset Overall Performance - **Global Stock Market**: From June 16th to June 20th, the Middle - East situation increased market risk - aversion, and most global stock markets declined. European stocks performed poorly, and emerging markets were slightly more resilient than developed markets. The VIX index fluctuated weekly [8]. - **Global Bond Market**: From June 16th to June 20th, the Fed's June FOMC meeting maintained the target range of the federal funds rate at 4.25% - 4.5%, in line with market expectations. The divergence of Fed officials' monetary policy expectations increased. Medium - and long - term US bond yields declined, and the 10 - year US bond yield fell 3BP to 4.38% weekly. The bond market fluctuated weekly. Globally, high - yield bonds > credit bonds > government bonds [13]. - **Global Foreign Exchange Market**: From June 16th to June 20th, the US macro data was generally stable, market risk - aversion increased, and the US dollar index rose weekly. Most major non - US currencies depreciated against the US dollar, and the RMB exchange rate fluctuated narrowly. The US dollar index rose 0.63% weekly [14]. - **Global Commodity Market**: The escalation of the geopolitical situation supported the high - level operation of international oil prices. Precious metal prices declined, and the prices of major agricultural products and non - ferrous metals showed mixed trends [16]. 3.2 Domestic Large - scale Asset Performance - **Domestic Stock Market**: From June 16th to June 20th, the geopolitical situation continued to affect equity assets, and most major broad - based A - share indexes declined. The average daily trading volume of the two markets decreased compared with the previous week. In terms of style, large - cap blue - chips were relatively more resilient. Among sectors, banks had the highest gains, while pharmaceuticals and textile and apparel underperformed. The Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.51% weekly [18]. - **Domestic Bond Market**: From June 16th to June 20th, the central bank's open - market operations had a net withdrawal of 799 billion yuan. The capital market remained stable overall. The bond market fluctuated strongly weekly. Generally, government bonds > credit bonds > corporate bonds [21]. - **Domestic Commodity Market**: The domestic commodity market rose overall. Among major commodity sectors, energy had the highest gains, while precious metals underperformed [22]. 3.3 Large - scale Asset Price Outlook - The market will continue to focus on the Middle - East situation in the short term. The price fluctuations of related large - scale assets, especially energy prices, may increase. It is necessary to closely monitor the situation [23].