文远知行系列 车中旭霞 公司深度 《文远知行（WRD.O）-全球L4级自动驾驶产品及解决方案先行者》——20250822 核心观点 全球L4级自动驾驶产品及解决方案先行者，主营Robotaxi、Robobus、Robovan、Robosweeper、服务业务 文远知行（纳斯达克代码：WRD.O）已在全球10个国家30个城市开展自动驾驶研发、测试及运营，公司提供从L2到 L4级别的自动驾驶产品和服务，涵盖Robotaxi、Robobus、Robovan、Robosweeper、ADAS等，其中Robotaxi商业模式 包含硬件收入、软件收入、收益分成。2025H1，公司营收2亿元，同比+33%，毛利率30.6%，同比-6pct，净亏损-7.9亿 元（24H1为-8.8亿），经调整净亏损为-5.95亿元（24H1为-3.2亿）。2025Q2，公司营收1.3亿元，同比+61%，其中 Robotaxi收入同比增长837%，占总收入比例达36%。 Robo-X行业：长赛道，大空间，自主Robo-X厂商崛起 L4产业发展加速， 技术提升+成本下降+出行效率提升+政策支持，L4产业商业化落地加速。 市场空间方面， 2030 ...

证券研究报告 | 2025年08月22日 文远知行（WRD.O） 优于大市 全球 L4 级自动驾驶产品及解决方案先行者 全球 L4 级自动驾驶产品及解决方案先行者，主营 Robotaxi、Robobus、 Robovan、Robosweeper、服务业务。文远知行（纳斯达克代码：WRD.O） 已在全球 10 个国家 30 个城市开展自动驾驶研发、测试及运营，公司提 供从 L2 到 L4 级别的自动驾驶产品和服务，涵盖 Robotaxi、Robobus、 Robovan、Robosweeper、ADAS 等，其中 Robotaxi 商业模式包含硬件收 入、软件收入、收益分成。2025H1，公司营收 2 亿元，同比+33%，毛利 率 30.6%，同比-6pct，净亏损-7.9 亿元（24H1 为-8.8 亿），经调整净 亏损为-5.95 亿元（24H1 为-3.2 亿）。2025Q2，公司营收 1.3 亿元，同 比+61%，其中 Robotaxi 收入同比增长 837%，占总收入比例达 36%。 Robo-X 行业：长赛道，大空间，自主 Robo-X 厂商崛起。L4 产业发展加速， 技术提升+成本下降+出行效率提 ...

Financial Performance - WeRide reported Q2 2025 revenue of US$17.8 million, representing a 60.8% year-on-year increase [8] - Robotaxi revenue surged 836.7% year-on-year to US$6.4 million, contributing 36.1% of total revenue, the highest concentration since 2021 [2][8] - Gross profit increased by 40.6% year-on-year, indicating steady growth [2][8] Commercialization Progress - WeRide's Robotaxi fleet in Abu Dhabi has tripled since December 2024, maintaining the largest fleet outside the US and China [3][9] - The company has achieved over 2,200 days of safe Robotaxi operations, setting an industry safety benchmark [3] - Plans to expand the Robotaxi fleet to hundreds and extend operations into additional areas of Abu Dhabi in 2025 [9] Technology Breakthroughs - WeRide launched the HPC 3.0 high-performance computing platform, developed with Lenovo and powered by NVIDIA's DRIVE AGX Thor chips [15] - The Robotaxi GXR became the world's first mass-produced Level 4 autonomous vehicle built on NVIDIA DRIVE AGX Thor chips [16] - The automotive-grade HPC 3.0 platform reduces the cost of the autonomous driving suite by 50% [16] Management Commentary - The CEO highlighted the rapid growth of the Robotaxi business as a reflection of the company's strategic vision and strong partnerships [15] - The CFO noted that the strong topline performance is driven by the increasing contribution from the Robotaxi business, indicating improved unit economics and commercial viability [15]

Core Insights - The Robotaxi industry is accelerating towards commercialization, with major players like Tesla, WeRide, and Pony.ai actively expanding their operations both domestically and internationally [1][2][4] Industry Developments - Tesla has shifted its Robotaxi service pricing from fixed fees to dynamic pricing based on mileage, indicating a move towards a more flexible business model [1] - WeRide and Pony.ai are not limited to Robotaxi services; they are also exploring other autonomous vehicle applications such as Robobus and Robotruck, enhancing their revenue streams [2][6] - The Shanghai "Action Plan" aims to achieve L4 autonomous driving for over 6 million passengers by 2027, with a significant increase in the number of new vehicles equipped with L2 and L3 capabilities [1][4] Market Expansion - WeRide has received operational licenses in Shanghai, marking its entry into the tenth city globally, while Pony.ai has established a commercial network in major Chinese cities [3][6] - Both companies are actively pursuing international markets, with WeRide operating in 10 countries and Pony.ai holding Robotaxi licenses in several nations [5][10] Technological Advancements - The maturity of L4 autonomous driving technology is improving, with companies like Waymo demonstrating safety and reliability through extensive testing [4][11] - Cost reductions in hardware and improvements in algorithm capabilities are critical for the large-scale commercialization of Robotaxi services [11][12] Financial Performance - WeRide reported a revenue of 127 million yuan in Q2, with Robotaxi business revenue increasing by 836.7% year-over-year, indicating strong growth potential [6] - Pony.ai's revenue for the first fiscal quarter of 2025 was approximately $780,000, with Robotaxi revenue growing by 200.3% [6] Future Outlook - The industry is expected to reach a break-even point within the next three to four years, with the potential for rapid market growth once profitability models are validated [12]

Core Viewpoint - Tesla has quietly launched a Robotaxi pilot service in Austin, marking a significant milestone in the global Robotaxi industry, which has evolved from technological exploration to commercialization over the past decade [1] Group 1: Industry Overview - The global Robotaxi industry has seen key developments, with Waymo leading globally, while in China, companies like Pony.ai, WeRide, and others are fiercely competing [1] - The competition between Pony.ai and WeRide has intensified, with both companies frequently compared due to their similar development trajectories [2] Group 2: Financial Performance - As of Q1 2025, Pony.ai reported revenues of 4.89 million, 5.15 million, 5.38 million, and 1.00 million from 2022 to Q1 2025, with cumulative losses exceeding 4.2 billion [3] - WeRide's revenues were 5.26 million, 4.02 million, 3.61 million, and 0.72 million during the same period, with cumulative losses over 6.1 billion [3] - Pony.ai's revenue has shown consistent year-on-year growth, while WeRide's has slightly contracted [3] Group 3: Market Valuation - WeRide's market capitalization has dropped to approximately 2.3 billion, while Pony.ai's is around 4.5 billion, indicating a significant valuation gap despite similar performance metrics [4] Group 4: Business Strategies - Pony.ai focuses on L4 fully autonomous driving technology, primarily targeting Robotaxi and Robotruck markets, while WeRide adopts a more generalized approach, offering a range of autonomous driving products from L2 to L4 [8] - WeRide operates over 1,200 autonomous vehicles, whereas Pony.ai has around 300 Robotaxis and 190 Robotrucks deployed in major cities [10] Group 5: Cost Structure and Profitability - The operational costs for Robotaxi include vehicle costs, maintenance, safety redundancy, and platform operation costs, with single vehicle costs dropping from over 1 million to around 300,000 [17][18] - Both companies face high operational costs and have yet to achieve profitability, with significant investments in R&D and operational scaling [16][19] Group 6: Strategic Partnerships - Both companies have announced strategic partnerships with Uber to expand into the Middle East market, indicating a shift towards collaboration in a competitive landscape [23] - The Robotaxi market is characterized by three main player types: autonomous driving companies, traditional automakers, and ride-hailing service providers [23] Group 7: Future Outlook - The Robotaxi industry is expected to grow, but companies must navigate consumer trust and regulatory uncertainties while demonstrating viable business models [26] - The competition between Pony.ai and WeRide highlights the need for both to focus on gaining industry influence rather than solely competing against each other [26]

Core Viewpoint - The rivalry between Pony.ai and WeRide has intensified, particularly following comments made by Pony.ai's CTO regarding their competitive positioning in the autonomous driving sector, leading to a public rebuttal from WeRide's CFO [2][3]. Financial Performance - From 2022 to Q1 2025, Pony.ai's revenue showed a consistent increase, with figures of 489 million, 515 million, 538 million, and 100 million yuan, while WeRide's revenue declined from 526 million to 72 million yuan during the same period [3][5]. - In terms of net profit, Pony.ai reported losses of 1.06 billion, 895 million, 1.96 billion, and 308 million yuan, totaling over 4.22 billion yuan since 2022. WeRide's losses were higher, totaling over 6.15 billion yuan during the same timeframe [5][9]. - WeRide maintained a relatively high gross margin, with figures of 232 million, 183 million, and 15.17 million yuan, and gross margins of 44.1%, 45.7%, and 30.7% respectively [6]. Market Capitalization - As of July 1, Pony.ai's market capitalization was approximately $4.69 billion, which is about 2.15 times that of WeRide at $2.17 billion. WeRide's stock price has dropped over 50% since its IPO, while Pony.ai's stock has remained relatively stable [8][11]. Business Strategy - Pony.ai focuses on a dual strategy of "Robotaxi + Robotruck" and aims to provide technology solutions to automotive companies, while WeRide employs a diversified approach with a product matrix that includes Robotaxi, Robobus, Robovan, and Robosweeper [12][13]. - WeRide has over 1,200 autonomous vehicles in operation and has secured over 10,000 orders for customized L4 autonomous vehicles, whereas Pony.ai has around 300 Robotaxis and 190 Robotrucks [12][13]. Industry Outlook - The Robotaxi market is projected to potentially generate up to $34 trillion by 2030, with significant competition emerging from various players, including Tesla and established companies like Waymo and Cruise [14]. - The ability to generate revenue and establish operational capabilities is becoming increasingly critical for companies in the Robotaxi sector, as reliance on financing is diminishing [14][15].

Core Viewpoint - The competition in the autonomous driving sector, particularly between Xiaoma Zhixing and Wenyuan Zhixing, is characterized by a long-term battle over "technical depth" and "scene breadth" [1][53]. Market Potential - The global Robotaxi market is projected to reach $1.95 billion in 2024 and $43.76 billion by 2030, with estimates suggesting it could hit 834.9 billion yuan by 2030 [2]. Competitive Landscape - Xiaoma Zhixing's CTO stated that only three companies, including Xiaoma, Waymo, and Baidu, have reached a certain level of scale and automation, implying a significant gap between them and other competitors [3]. - Wenyuan Zhixing's CFO publicly countered Xiaoma's claims, highlighting operational issues within Xiaoma and emphasizing the need for tangible results [4][7]. Company Background - Xiaoma Zhixing was founded in December 2016, while Wenyuan Zhixing originated from a team that left Baidu in April 2017, leading to a natural comparison between the two [8][9]. - The two companies have distinct technical paths, with Xiaoma focusing on redundancy and safety, while Wenyuan emphasizes cost optimization [10]. Technical Strategies - Xiaoma Zhixing's approach includes a dual focus on Robotaxi and Robotruck, utilizing a multi-sensor fusion strategy for its seventh-generation Robotaxi [11][12]. - Wenyuan Zhixing employs a diversified strategy with a product matrix that includes Robotaxi, Robobus, Robovan, and Robosweeper, allowing for rapid adaptation to various scenarios [14][15]. Financial Performance - Both companies have raised approximately $1.3 billion in funding, indicating strong investor interest in the autonomous driving sector [16]. - Xiaoma Zhixing's R&D expenses from 2022 to 2024 totaled approximately $517 million, while Wenyuan Zhixing's R&D expenses amounted to about 290.8 million yuan, showing Xiaoma's higher investment in R&D [31]. - In terms of revenue, Xiaoma Zhixing reported $68.39 million, $71.90 million, and $75.03 million from 2022 to 2024, while Wenyuan Zhixing's revenue declined significantly during the same period [36][37]. Market Positioning - As of the end of 2024, Wenyuan Zhixing's total assets were approximately 7.694 billion yuan, with a net asset growth of 331.52%, while Xiaoma Zhixing's total assets were about $1.051 billion, reflecting a 40.70% increase [38][39]. - Both companies are facing unique challenges, with Wenyuan experiencing a decrease in operating cash flow and Xiaoma facing investment challenges [43]. Strategic Directions - Xiaoma Zhixing is focusing on the Chinese market, with plans to expand its Robotaxi fleet significantly, while Wenyuan Zhixing is pursuing a global expansion strategy [47][48]. - The two companies are competing not only in technology but also in their approaches to market expansion, with Xiaoma emphasizing a "technical elitism" and Wenyuan adopting a "practical scene" strategy [49][51].

Market Overview - The global Robotaxi market is projected to reach $1.95 billion in 2024 and $43.76 billion by 2030, with a forecasted market size of 834.9 billion yuan by 2030 according to Tianfeng Securities [1] Competitive Landscape - Small Horse Intelligent (小马智行) and WeRide (文远知行) are the leading players in the autonomous driving sector, with significant differences in their operational strategies and technology focus [2][5] - Small Horse Intelligent emphasizes redundancy and safety in its technology, while WeRide focuses on cost optimization and a diversified product matrix [7][9] - Both companies have raised approximately $1.3 billion in funding, indicating strong investor interest in the autonomous driving sector [9] Financial Performance - Small Horse Intelligent's revenue from 2022 to 2024 was $68.39 million, $71.90 million, and $75.03 million, totaling approximately $215 million [16] - WeRide's revenue during the same period was 528 million yuan, 402 million yuan, and 250 million yuan, totaling approximately 1.18 billion yuan, indicating a significant decline in revenue [16] - As of the end of 2024, WeRide's total assets were 7.694 billion yuan, with a net asset growth of 331.52%, while Small Horse Intelligent's total assets were $1.051 billion, reflecting a 40.70% increase [18][19] Strategic Initiatives - Small Horse Intelligent is focusing on the Chinese market, with plans to expand its Robotaxi fleet to 1,000 vehicles by the end of 2025, while WeRide is pursuing a global expansion strategy [21] - Both companies are engaged in a competitive race for the title of "Robotaxi first stock," with WeRide successfully listing on NASDAQ first, achieving a market cap of $4.491 billion on its debut [12] Technology and Innovation - Small Horse Intelligent's technology emphasizes a dual approach of Robotaxi and Robotruck, utilizing a multi-sensor fusion strategy for its seventh-generation Robotaxi [7] - WeRide has developed a diverse product matrix that includes Robotaxi, Robobus, Robovan, and Robosweeper, showcasing its adaptability across various scenarios [9] Market Dynamics - The competition between Small Horse Intelligent and WeRide is characterized by a focus on "technical depth" versus "scene breadth," indicating a long-term strategic battle in the autonomous driving space [22]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the automotive and electronics sectors [6] Core Insights - The Robo X industry, represented by Robotaxi and Robovan, is experiencing accelerated commercialization driven by policy and industry resonance, with significant market attention due to multiple catalysts [10][11] - The global and China L4 autonomous driving market is projected to reach USD 15.35 trillion and USD 581 billion respectively by 2030, with a CAGR of 104% and 105% from 2025 to 2030 [10] - The report suggests focusing on core operational platforms, high-growth hardware suppliers, and innovative application scenario developers as investment opportunities [44] Summary by Sections Robotaxi - The commercialization of Robotaxi is accelerating, with leading companies like Pony.ai, WeRide, and Loongrun expanding fleet sizes and increasing order volumes [2][12] - Pony.ai's Robotaxi service revenue grew by 200% year-on-year in Q1 2025, while WeRide's revenue contribution reached 22.3%, up 10.4 percentage points year-on-year [2][19] - The policy environment is improving, with major cities expanding operational areas and refining license management, which lowers operational costs for companies [12][19] Robovan - Robovan is showing significant potential in logistics, with a positive cycle of "cost reduction-application validation-scale expansion" forming [3][23] - The hardware costs have drastically decreased, with models like the New Stone X3 dropping from CNY 200,000 to CNY 70,000, and the Jiushi Intelligent E6 model priced at CNY 19,800, a 91% reduction [3][23] - Major players are accelerating financing and production expansion, with Jiushi Intelligent targeting the delivery of 10,000 units in 2025 [3][24] Broader Applications - The Robo X concept extends beyond Robotaxi and Robovan to include applications like Robosweeper and Robotruck, which are also seeing accelerated commercialization [4][14] - Robosweeper has been deployed in multiple cities, reducing labor costs and improving operational efficiency [4][40] - Drone logistics is emerging as a key area, with significant potential in last-mile delivery and complex terrain transport, supported by favorable policies [41][42] Investment Opportunities - The report recommends focusing on core operational platforms that have achieved scalable operations and possess clear cost reduction paths, such as Pony.ai [44] - High-growth component suppliers in critical areas like lidar and high-performance chips are also highlighted as potential beneficiaries of the autonomous vehicle rollout [44] - Companies that integrate autonomous driving technology with specific industry applications, such as smart warehousing and last-mile delivery robots, are identified as innovative scenario developers [44]

Industry Overview - The U.S. President Trump announced an increase in steel and aluminum import tariffs from 25% to 50%, aimed at protecting the domestic steel industry, effective June 4 [1] - The China Council for the Promotion of International Trade reported that over $3 billion in cooperation agreements were signed between China and Latin American countries this year [2] - The China Association of Automobile Manufacturers reported that the total import and export value of automotive goods in April was $23.09 billion, with a month-on-month increase of 6.8% but a year-on-year decrease of 2.2% [3] - Hong Kong's overall export value in April increased by 14.7% year-on-year, reaching HKD 434.5 billion, while imports rose by 15.8% [4] Company Performance - Pinduoduo's latest quarterly report showed revenue of approximately RMB 95.7 billion, a 10% year-on-year increase, but operating profit fell by 38% [5] - Kuaishou reported a 32.7% year-on-year increase in overseas revenue, achieving positive operating profit for the first time in a single quarter [6] - Bawang Tea's overseas market GMV grew by 85% year-on-year, with total GMV reaching RMB 8.23 billion in Q1 [13] - Xiaomi's global smartphone shipments reached 41.8 million units in Q1, marking a 3% year-on-year increase [14] - Nayuki Tea's new store in Thailand generated nearly THB 350,000 (approximately RMB 77,000) in its first month of operation [15] Market Expansion - Temu has officially launched its overseas warehouses in the U.S., preparing for significant local stock [9] - Taobao is entering the Australian market, offering free shipping and local return services during the 618 shopping festival [10] - AliExpress has opened its platform to local sellers in Germany, enhancing its competitive edge in the local e-commerce landscape [11] - Didi has launched its overseas car-hailing service in 11 countries and 26 cities to cater to Chinese tourists [12] - GAC Group has officially entered the Brazilian market, planning to sell 8,000 vehicles by the end of this year and 29,000 by 2026 [18]