当地时间10月1日，美国联邦政府因两党分歧再度"停摆"。这个消息一出，我的朋友圈立刻炸开了锅。有人担心全球经济动荡，有人却在医药股上赚得盆满 钵满。作为一个在上海金融圈摸爬滚打十年的量化投资者，我更关心的是：这些表面现象背后，到底隐藏着怎样的资金行为逻辑？ | 代码 | 名称 | 现价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 年初至今 | 时间 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | DJI | 道琼斯工业平均 | 46397.89c | 81.82 | 0.18% | 9.06% | 09/30 | | IXIC | 纳斯达克指数 | 22660.01c | 68.86 | 0.30% | 17.34% | 09/30 | | SPX | 标普500 | 6688.46c | 27.25 | 0.41% | 13.72% | 09/30 | 医药板块的异军突起特别引人注目。辉瑞涨6.83%，默克涨6.81%，礼来涨5.02%——这些数字看似简单，实则暗藏玄机。我注意到一个有趣的现象：在市场 普遍担忧政府停摆影响时，医药股却逆势走强。这让我想起十年前刚开始接触量化投资 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - Long - term, major inflection points of convertible bonds are basically synchronous with equities, and capital behavior determines the actual performance of convertible bonds in trending markets. Short - term, capital attitude and behavior determine the performance of convertible bonds around phased inflection points. The convertible bond index may enter a volatile phase in the short term, following changes in the equity market with potentially increased market volatility [1][3][12] - After the adjustment, the average price of convertible bonds has declined, the conversion premium rate has decreased, and the problem of over - valued convertible bonds has been alleviated [19] Summary by Directory 1. Convertible Bond Weekly Thinking - Past week, both the equity and convertible bond markets adjusted, stabilized, and rebounded, with convertible bonds performing slightly better than underlying stocks. The Shanghai Composite Index fluctuated above 3800 points, being weak in the first four trading days and significantly rebounding on Friday. The Wind Convertible Bond Equal - Weighted Index rose 0.51% last week, while the Convertible Bond Underlying Stock Equal - Weighted Index fell 0.75%, and the overall market premium rate increased [10] - Since August 27, the amplitude of the convertible bond market has increased, with different driving factors. On August 27 and September 1, the adjustment was mainly due to capital outflows from the convertible bond market, and convertible bonds underperformed underlying stocks. On September 2, the decline and on September 5, the increase were mainly due to changes in the equity market, with parity driving the performance of convertible bonds. On September 5, the high follow - up performance of convertible bonds was due to capital represented by convertible bond ETFs turning to net inflows [2][11] - Absolute return funds have shifted from direct to indirect holding of convertible bonds. In August, institutions other than public funds basically reduced their holdings of convertible bonds due to the shrinking market size, while public funds continued the growth trend from July. From July to August, absolute return funds such as wealth management subsidiaries and trusts continuously reduced their direct holdings of convertible bonds but indirectly held them by buying fixed - income + funds and convertible bond ETFs. The large - scale inflow of fixed - income + funds, likely synchronous with convertible bond ETFs, started in mid - to - early July, driving up the valuation of convertible bonds. Recently, the attitude of fixed - income + funds has changed due to market fluctuations. Convertible bond ETFs had net outflows on September 1 and 2 and large net inflows on September 5. The previous adjustment of convertible bonds was mainly due to the profit - taking sentiment of absolute return funds, and the weak recovery this time is because the price and valuation of the convertible bond market have reached absolute highs, resulting in the convertible bond trend leading that of the equity market slightly [4][15][16] 2. Convertible Bond Market Tracking 2.1 Convertible Bond Market Conditions - The report provides the performance data of various convertible bond indexes in different time periods, including the past week, two weeks, September to date, one month, two months, half - year, and one year. For example, the Wind Convertible Bond Energy Index rose 1.03% in the past week, - 2.75% in the past two weeks, etc. [22] 2.2 Convertible Bond Individual Securities - The report shows the top ten and bottom ten individual convertible bonds in terms of price changes in the past week, but specific bond names are not provided [24] 2.3 Convertible Bond Valuation - The report presents the valuation trends of different types of convertible bonds, such as debt - type, balanced, and equity - type convertible bonds, including the conversion premium rate trends of different parities of convertible bonds [31] 2.4 Convertible Bond Price - The report shows the price median trend of convertible bonds [35]

Group 1: Silver Market Overview - The silver market has recently reached a 14-year high, surpassing $39 per ounce, driven by various factors [1][3] - The semiconductor industry's growth is significantly supporting silver demand, with a projected 20% year-over-year increase in global chip sales by May 2025, which is crucial as electrical and electronic products account for 40% of silver demand [3] - There is a divergence in opinions regarding the silver price increase, with some analysts attributing it to investment demand while others note that fund managers are taking profits, indicating a complex market dynamic [5] Group 2: Investment Insights - The concept of high and low price points is deemed misleading; understanding current market conditions is more valuable than predicting future price movements [6][7] - Historical performance of bank stocks illustrates that institutional investment often precedes price movements, suggesting that monitoring fund behavior is more insightful than merely speculating on price levels [10] - In contrast, the white liquor sector has shown that a lack of institutional participation can lead to continued price declines, emphasizing the importance of institutional involvement in market stability [14] Group 3: Future Outlook for Silver - The silver market is currently facing challenges from both industrial demand and its financial attributes, necessitating an objective approach to market analysis [15] - Predictions for silver prices indicate an average of $36 per ounce in Q3, potentially dropping to $35 in Q4, but long-term prospects remain positive with expectations of silver outperforming gold as the global economy recovers by 2026 [16] - Continuous tracking of data changes and adjusting perceptions is crucial, as market conditions are subject to constant change [16]