2026年A股的开年有点不一样——1月6日，陕西旅游作为今年第一家新上市公司登陆沪市主板，开盘价直接比80.44元的发行价涨了63%。这也是近5年里A 股迎来的第一只文旅类上市企业，投行说这是资本市场在支持有稳定盈利的消费类企业，券商也提到现在大家旅游消费的意愿在慢慢回升。但很多人可能没 往深想：为啥有的新闻出来行情就涨，有的却反而跌？其实关键不在新闻本身，而在背后的资金行为。 一、新闻里的行情，为啥总踩不准节奏 很多人都有过这种困扰：明明看到利好新闻，买进去却套住；明明出了利空，反而涨了。就像这次陕西旅游上市，有人可能觉得"文旅股要涨了"，但其实A 股的规律是"买传闻卖新闻"——提前埋伏的人，等新闻出来反而可能卖。可问题是，怎么知道哪些涨是真的，哪些是假的？ 大家看这两只股票，左边的涨涨跌跌但总能拉回来，右边的反弹几次都没成功，表面看是行情不同，其实背后是机构资金的选择。以前我也搞不懂，直到用 了量化大数据才明白：原来机构资金的行为是能通过数据看出来的。不是看资金流入流出，而是看他们的交易特征——有没有持续活跃。 以前我也总被行情绕晕，直到接触了量化工具才发现：机构资金的活跃程度是有"痕迹"的。不是看谁买了 ...

资产比价方面，本周金银比数值为 73.03，较上周下降 4.72；铜油比数 值为 193.83，较上周上升 5.89；铜螺比数值为 29.47，较上周上升 1.35； 金铜比数值为 0.37，较上周下降 0.02；股债性价比数值为 4.1，较上周 下降 0.1；AH 股溢价数值为 119.79，较上周下降 1.11。 库存方面，最新一周原油库存为 44355 万吨，较上周上升 278 万吨；螺 纹钢库存为 467 万吨，较上周上升 4 万吨；阴极铜库存为 109690 吨， 较上周上升 14656 吨；电解铝库存为 62 万吨，较上周上升 2 万吨。 证券研究报告 | 2025年12月07日 多资产周报 反内卷政策演进与实践 反内卷政策演进与实践。（1）反内卷政策已完成多轮迭代。2023 年底中 央经济工作会议首次明确"部分行业产能过剩"，将该问题上升至国家 政策层面。2024 年作为行业自律关键期，核心通过协会牵头、企业承诺 平衡供需，但多数行业以失败告终。2025 年 7 月后，治理方式转向"行 政指导+法律划线+行业自律"三维协同，政策进入新阶段。（2）当前 反内卷仍以去产能为核心，价格管控为辅助手段。 ...

Group 1: Bond Market Analysis - The bond market experienced a significant pullback this week, with short-term bonds supported by central bank liquidity and demand, maintaining stable yields[1] - Long-term bonds faced pressure due to policy concerns and profit-taking, but later recovered as fundamental expectations solidified and institutional buying resumed[1] - The recent actions of major banks to withdraw large-denomination certificates of deposit have raised expectations for interest rate declines, providing policy support for a potential bond market recovery[1] Group 2: Market Performance Overview - From November 22 to November 29, the CSI 300 index rose by 1.65%, the Hang Seng Index increased by 2.54%, and the S&P 500 gained 3.73%[2] - The 10-year China bond yield increased by 2.47 basis points, while the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield decreased by 4 basis points[2] - The U.S. dollar index fell by 0.72%, and the offshore RMB appreciated by 0.49%[2] Group 3: Inventory and Fund Behavior - The latest weekly crude oil inventory stood at 44,355 million tons, up by 2.78 million tons from the previous week[3] - The latest week saw a decrease in long positions in the U.S. dollar by 177 contracts, while short positions increased by 1,611 contracts[3] - The gold ETF size rose to 3,361 million ounces, an increase of 160,000 ounces from the previous week[3]

Group 1: Market Trends - The peak period for the opening of amortized bond funds is from November 2025 to the first half of 2026, with a total opening scale exceeding 400 billion yuan[12] - In December 2025, the opening scale will reach 107.7 billion yuan, and in March 2026, it will exceed 116 billion yuan, primarily focusing on 3-year and 5-year products[12] - The demand for 3-5 year high-grade credit bonds will continue to be released, maintaining a strong short-term performance[14] Group 2: Fund Allocation Changes - The proportion of credit bonds in amortized bond funds has increased significantly, reaching 14.9% by the end of Q3 2025, up from 1.8% at the end of 2024[13] - Bank wealth management has replaced bank proprietary trading as the core incremental funding source, with holdings in amortized bond funds rising from 17.1 billion yuan to 93 billion yuan, a growth of over 5 times[13] - 84% of the increased funding from wealth management is directed towards products with a closed period of 3 years or less, reinforcing the demand for short- to medium-term credit bonds[13] Group 3: Market Structure Differentiation - The credit bond market is experiencing structural differentiation, with medium- to high-grade credit bonds benefiting significantly, while certain bonds are excluded from the amortized bond fund allocation due to SPPI testing[14] - Long-term credit bonds are less favored due to maturity mismatches and profit-taking by banks, while policy financial bonds are seeing reduced compression dynamics due to the shift towards credit bonds[14] - The overall market is characterized by a notable divergence in performance among different bond types[14]

Group 1 - The U.S. federal government shutdown has sparked mixed reactions in the market, with concerns about global economic instability juxtaposed against strong performance in pharmaceutical stocks [1] - Notable gains in pharmaceutical companies include Pfizer up 6.83%, Merck up 6.81%, and Eli Lilly up 5.02%, indicating a potential shift in investor behavior towards defensive sectors during times of uncertainty [1] - The current market environment reflects a divergence between index performance and individual stock performance, with over 40% of stocks not reaching new highs in four years, highlighting a "bull market" for indices but a "bear market" for many individual stocks [2] Group 2 - The analysis emphasizes the importance of understanding underlying funding behaviors rather than just surface-level price movements, suggesting that market dynamics are driven by behavioral changes [2] - The use of quantitative analysis tools has been highlighted as a means to identify and avoid turbulent periods in stock performance, allowing investors to better navigate market fluctuations [6] - The concept of "institutional inventory" and "short covering" is introduced as key indicators for understanding institutional trading behavior, which can signal the end of adjustments in stock prices [8][10] Group 3 - The article suggests that during significant events like the government shutdown, "smart money" tends to act first, and ordinary investors should focus on capturing these leading indicators through quantitative tools [10] - The overall message reinforces that the fundamental principle of market behavior remains unchanged: "behavior determines trends," which is crucial for investors to succeed in an information-overloaded environment [10] - Recommendations include avoiding being misled by superficial price movements, focusing on funding behavior rather than news, and establishing a personal quantitative analysis framework based on behavioral finance [11]

Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - Long - term, major inflection points of convertible bonds are basically synchronous with equities, and capital behavior determines the actual performance of convertible bonds in trending markets. Short - term, capital attitude and behavior determine the performance of convertible bonds around phased inflection points. The convertible bond index may enter a volatile phase in the short term, following changes in the equity market with potentially increased market volatility [1][3][12] - After the adjustment, the average price of convertible bonds has declined, the conversion premium rate has decreased, and the problem of over - valued convertible bonds has been alleviated [19] Summary by Directory 1. Convertible Bond Weekly Thinking - Past week, both the equity and convertible bond markets adjusted, stabilized, and rebounded, with convertible bonds performing slightly better than underlying stocks. The Shanghai Composite Index fluctuated above 3800 points, being weak in the first four trading days and significantly rebounding on Friday. The Wind Convertible Bond Equal - Weighted Index rose 0.51% last week, while the Convertible Bond Underlying Stock Equal - Weighted Index fell 0.75%, and the overall market premium rate increased [10] - Since August 27, the amplitude of the convertible bond market has increased, with different driving factors. On August 27 and September 1, the adjustment was mainly due to capital outflows from the convertible bond market, and convertible bonds underperformed underlying stocks. On September 2, the decline and on September 5, the increase were mainly due to changes in the equity market, with parity driving the performance of convertible bonds. On September 5, the high follow - up performance of convertible bonds was due to capital represented by convertible bond ETFs turning to net inflows [2][11] - Absolute return funds have shifted from direct to indirect holding of convertible bonds. In August, institutions other than public funds basically reduced their holdings of convertible bonds due to the shrinking market size, while public funds continued the growth trend from July. From July to August, absolute return funds such as wealth management subsidiaries and trusts continuously reduced their direct holdings of convertible bonds but indirectly held them by buying fixed - income + funds and convertible bond ETFs. The large - scale inflow of fixed - income + funds, likely synchronous with convertible bond ETFs, started in mid - to - early July, driving up the valuation of convertible bonds. Recently, the attitude of fixed - income + funds has changed due to market fluctuations. Convertible bond ETFs had net outflows on September 1 and 2 and large net inflows on September 5. The previous adjustment of convertible bonds was mainly due to the profit - taking sentiment of absolute return funds, and the weak recovery this time is because the price and valuation of the convertible bond market have reached absolute highs, resulting in the convertible bond trend leading that of the equity market slightly [4][15][16] 2. Convertible Bond Market Tracking 2.1 Convertible Bond Market Conditions - The report provides the performance data of various convertible bond indexes in different time periods, including the past week, two weeks, September to date, one month, two months, half - year, and one year. For example, the Wind Convertible Bond Energy Index rose 1.03% in the past week, - 2.75% in the past two weeks, etc. [22] 2.2 Convertible Bond Individual Securities - The report shows the top ten and bottom ten individual convertible bonds in terms of price changes in the past week, but specific bond names are not provided [24] 2.3 Convertible Bond Valuation - The report presents the valuation trends of different types of convertible bonds, such as debt - type, balanced, and equity - type convertible bonds, including the conversion premium rate trends of different parities of convertible bonds [31] 2.4 Convertible Bond Price - The report shows the price median trend of convertible bonds [35]

Group 1: Silver Market Overview - The silver market has recently reached a 14-year high, surpassing $39 per ounce, driven by various factors [1][3] - The semiconductor industry's growth is significantly supporting silver demand, with a projected 20% year-over-year increase in global chip sales by May 2025, which is crucial as electrical and electronic products account for 40% of silver demand [3] - There is a divergence in opinions regarding the silver price increase, with some analysts attributing it to investment demand while others note that fund managers are taking profits, indicating a complex market dynamic [5] Group 2: Investment Insights - The concept of high and low price points is deemed misleading; understanding current market conditions is more valuable than predicting future price movements [6][7] - Historical performance of bank stocks illustrates that institutional investment often precedes price movements, suggesting that monitoring fund behavior is more insightful than merely speculating on price levels [10] - In contrast, the white liquor sector has shown that a lack of institutional participation can lead to continued price declines, emphasizing the importance of institutional involvement in market stability [14] Group 3: Future Outlook for Silver - The silver market is currently facing challenges from both industrial demand and its financial attributes, necessitating an objective approach to market analysis [15] - Predictions for silver prices indicate an average of $36 per ounce in Q3, potentially dropping to $35 in Q4, but long-term prospects remain positive with expectations of silver outperforming gold as the global economy recovers by 2026 [16] - Continuous tracking of data changes and adjusting perceptions is crucial, as market conditions are subject to constant change [16]