行 业 及 产 业 海外消费服务 行 业 研 究 / 行 业 点 相关研究 证 券 研 究 报 告 证券分析师 黄哲 A0230513030001 huangzhe@swsresearch.com 周文远 A0230518110003 zhouwy@swsresearch.com 贾梦迪 A0230520010002 jiamd@swsresearch.com 研究支持 胡梦婷 A0230524060004 humt@swsresearch.com 联系人 胡梦婷 A0230524060004 humt@swsresearch.com 2026 年 03 月 01 日 海外社服：澳门春节假期的总访客量和日均访客量创 历史新高 看好 ——海外消费周报（20260220-20260226） 本期投资提示： ⚫ 海外社服：澳门春节假期的总访客量和日均访客量创历史新高 澳门春节期间的总入境旅客量和日均旅客量都创下了有史以来的新高。总入境旅客量 155.4 万人 次，日均旅客量 17.3 万人次，可比口径同比增长 5.5%。入境旅客中，内地旅客日均 13.4 万人 次，同比增长 7%；国际旅客日均接近 7,900 人次 ...

港股晨报 港股回顾 点，跌幅随即扩大至 247 点，低见 23730 点，其后跌幅 一度收窄至仅 20 点，午后大盘走势偏软，尾盘沽压再 度扩大。截至收盘，恒指收报 23831 点，下跌 145 点或 0.61%；国指收报 9656 点，下跌 47 点或 0.49%，大市 成交进一步减至 827.99 亿。港股通录得净流入资金 4.84 亿，其中港股通(沪)净流入 2.83 亿，港股通(深)净 流入 2.01 亿。板块方面，本地地产、软件、5G 概念板 块跌幅靠前；黄金股逆市走强。 周二港股市场单边下挫，恒生指数收跌 1.82%， 报 26590.32 点；恒生科技指数跌 2.13%，报 5270.7 点；恒生中国企业指数下挫 2.06%，报 9007.86 点。市场成交额 2509.92 亿港元，较前 一交易日 1729.63 亿港元显著放量。恒生指数成 分股中，中国生物制药跌 6.6%，翰森制药跌 6.4%，中国人寿跌 6.1%，万洲国际涨 4.4%。恒生 科技指数成分股中，金蝶国际跌 7.8%，商汤-W 跌 5.8%，华虹半导体涨 3.1%。港股通成分股中，中 国中免跌 10.5%。 美股市场 1. 周 ...

Core Viewpoint - The company has successfully completed Phase II clinical trials for its innovative drug UBT251 injection in overweight/obese patients in China, demonstrating significant weight loss and safety profile [1][2]. Group 1: Clinical Trial Details - The Phase II clinical study involved 205 participants with obesity (BMI ≥ 28.0 kg/m²) or overweight patients with at least one weight-related comorbidity (24.0 kg/m² ≤ BMI < 28.0 kg/m²) [1]. - Participants were randomly assigned in a 1:1:1:1 ratio to receive UBT251 injection at doses of 2 mg, 4 mg, or 6 mg, or a placebo, administered once weekly for 24 weeks [1]. - The primary endpoint was the percentage change in weight from baseline after 24 weeks of treatment [1]. Group 2: Results and Efficacy - After 24 weeks, the UBT251 treatment groups achieved a maximum average weight reduction of -19.7% (-17.5 kg), compared to -2.0% (-1.6 kg) in the placebo group [2]. - Significant improvements were also observed in secondary endpoints, including waist circumference, blood glucose, blood pressure, and blood lipids, all showing better results than the placebo [2]. Group 3: Safety and Next Steps - The overall safety and tolerability of UBT251 were good, with no participants dropping out due to adverse events, which were similar to those of comparable drugs and mostly mild to moderate gastrointestinal reactions [2]. - The successful Phase II results support the progression to Phase III clinical trials for UBT251 in overweight/obese patients in China [2].

香港交易及結算所有限公司及香港聯合交易所有限公司對本公告的內容概不負責，對其 準確性或完整性亦不發表任何聲明，並明確表示，概不對因本公告全部或任何部份內容 而產生或因依賴該等內容而引致的任何損失承擔任何責任。 本集團產品 UBT251 注射液臨床研究進展 本公告乃由聯邦制藥國際控股有限公司（「本公司」）自願發出。 本公司董事會（「董事會」）欣然公佈，本公司全資附屬公司聯邦生物科技（珠海橫琴） 有限公司（「聯邦生物科技」）自主研發的 1 類創新藥 UBT251 注射液已完成在中國超 重/肥胖患者中的 II 期臨床研究（「本研究」）。 UBT251 是一款長效 GLP-1（胰高血糖素樣肽-1）/GIP（葡萄糖依賴性促胰島素多肽）/GCG （胰高血糖素）三靶點受體激動劑。截至目前，已獲准在中國及/或美國開展成人 2 型糖 尿病、超重/肥胖、慢性腎臟病、代謝相關脂肪性肝炎多個適應症的臨床試驗。本公司是 中國首家、全球第二家以化學合成多肽法製備的長效 GLP-1R/GIPR/GCGR 三靶點激動 劑獲批臨床的企業。 於二零二五年三月，聯邦生物科技及本公司與諾和諾德股份有限公司已訂立關於 UBT251 的獨家許可協議。 ...

Market Overview - US stock indices fell across the board, with December JOLTS job openings hitting a five-year low, significantly below expectations [1] - Challenger companies announced 108,000 layoffs in January, the highest for the same period since 2009, with a month-on-month increase of 205% [1] - Initial jobless claims rose to 231,000, an increase of 22,000 from the previous week, exceeding expectations, indicating a deteriorating economic situation [1] - Hong Kong stocks were also affected, closing down 1.21% [1] Technology Impact - The decline in job openings is partly attributed to advancements in artificial intelligence, such as Anthropic's Claude Opus 4.6, which outperforms GPT-5.2 in various fields [1] - Financial data service providers like FactSet experienced a significant drop of 10% in stock price, with S&P Global, Moody's, and Nasdaq also declining [1] Automotive Sector - NIO (09866) forecasted adjusted operating profit for Q4 2025 between RMB 700 million (approximately $100 million) and RMB 1.2 billion (approximately $172 million), driven by sales growth and improved product mix [3] - Li Auto (02015) is preparing to launch the new Li L9, featuring advanced technology and a price of RMB 559,800, with a market focus on high-end segments [3] - Both NIO and Li Auto showed positive stock performance, with NIO rising nearly 7% and Li Auto increasing by nearly 4% [3] Consumer Goods - The upcoming Spring Festival is boosting sales in the snack sector, with major companies ramping up production to meet demand [4] - Zhongtong Express (02057) projected total revenue for 2025 between RMB 48.5 billion and RMB 50 billion, a growth of approximately 9.5% to 12.9% from 2024 [4] - SF Express (09699) expects a profit of no less than RMB 238 million for 2025, with a year-on-year increase of over 80% [4] Dairy Industry - Dairy prices are at a low point, with a reduction in dairy cow inventory and losses in farms leading to the exit of inefficient production capacity [5] - The price of milk is expected to stabilize and rise by 2026, benefiting upstream farms and downstream dairy companies [5] - Yurun Dairy (09858) and Mengniu Dairy (02319) saw stock increases of over 4% and 3%, respectively [5] Pharmaceutical Sector - Innovent Biologics (09969) announced a positive earnings forecast, expecting revenue of RMB 2.37 billion for 2025, a year-on-year increase of approximately 134% [6] - The company anticipates its first profitable year with a net profit of around RMB 630 million [6] - Federal Pharmaceutical (03933) received approval for a new drug, enhancing its position in the market [6] Oil Market - Reports indicate that Russia has increased discounts on oil exports to China, aiming to attract demand amid declining purchases from India [7] - If India reduces its imports, China may become the primary buyer of discounted Russian oil, benefiting oil refining companies [7] - Major companies in the Hong Kong market include Sinopec (00386) and Shanghai Petrochemical (00338) [7] Duty-Free Market - China Duty Free Group (01880) reported a nearly 20% year-on-year increase in shopping totals at duty-free stores in Hainan since the new policy implementation [8] - The company holds a significant market share in Hainan's duty-free sector, with a strong supply chain and partnerships with over 1,000 luxury brands [9] - The expansion of duty-free shopping in Hainan is expected to enhance the company's growth prospects [9]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy-A" investment rating to the company with a 6-month target price of HKD 20.71 [4][7]. Core Insights - The report highlights the overseas licensing of UBT251 as a demonstration of the company's R&D capabilities, with an innovative drug pipeline expected to yield results [2][3]. - UBT251 is the first three-target weight loss drug authorized to a multinational corporation (MNC) in China, with significant clinical progress anticipated by 2025 and potential market peaks in both domestic and overseas sales [3][4]. - The company has a robust antibiotic and insulin segment, with a comprehensive supply chain from upstream intermediates to finished products, and is expanding into animal health, which is expected to drive new growth [4][6]. Summary by Sections 1. Company Overview - The company has established itself as a leader in the penicillin industry, with a fully integrated supply chain from intermediates to finished products, and is expanding into new therapeutic areas such as autoimmune diseases and metabolism [13][14]. - Historical performance shows a strong revenue growth trajectory, with a CAGR of 11.55% from 2005 to 2023, although recent performance has been impacted by production adjustments and increased R&D investments [25][29]. 2. UBT251 Development - UBT251 has commenced multiple clinical trials in China, with significant milestones expected in the coming years, including potential market approval by 2028 [3][37]. - The competitive landscape for three-target weight loss drugs is favorable, with UBT251 currently positioned second in clinical progress among domestic competitors [39][40]. 3. Antibiotic and Insulin Segments - The antibiotic market is expected to grow steadily, driven by the rigid demand for penicillin formulations, while the insulin segment has shown resilience with a significant increase in procurement volumes [4][6]. - The company has successfully navigated the challenges posed by antibiotic procurement policies, maintaining a competitive edge in the market [4][6]. 4. Financial Projections - Revenue growth is projected at 0.89% for 2025, with net profits expected to reach approximately CNY 2.86 billion [7][8]. - The report anticipates a peak sales potential of CNY 7.7 billion domestically and USD 6 billion overseas for UBT251, assuming a 50% success rate for market entry [3][4].