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研报掘金丨国盛证券:维持今世缘“买入”评级,上半年营收下降但市场份额仍有提升
Ge Long Hui A P P· 2025-08-27 06:16
国盛证券研报指出,今世缘2025H1虽营收下降但市场份额仍有提升,Q2报表释压,预收款稳定。省外 和苏中表现相对略好。2025H1省内/省外收入分别为63/6亿元,同比-6%/+5%;2025Q2收入同 比-32%/-18%。省内看,2025H1淮安/南京/苏南/苏中/盐城/淮海收入分别为12/18/7/11/8/7亿元,同比分 别-4%/-8%/-11%/-0.2%/-6%/-7%;2025Q2收入同比分别-30%/-34%/-39%/-19%/-39%/-45%。公司近年在 环江苏(皖鲁浙沪等)销售有突破,省外计划投放淡雅。考虑整体动销承压,该行下调2025-2027年盈 利预测,预计公司2025-2027年摊薄EPS分别为2.43/2.58/2.85元/股(前值分别为2.99/3.28/3.58元/股), 当前股价对应PE为18/17/16x,维持"买入"评级。 ...
国盛证券:维持今世缘“买入”评级,上半年营收下降但市场份额仍有提升
Xin Lang Cai Jing· 2025-08-27 06:07
国盛证券研报指出,今世缘2025H1虽营收下降但市场份额仍有提升,Q2报表释压,预收款稳定。省外 和苏中表现相对略好。2025H1省内/省外收入分别为63/6亿元,同比-6%/+5%;2025Q2收入同 比-32%/-18%。省内看,2025H1淮安/南京/苏南/苏中/盐城/淮海收入分别为12/18/7/11/8/7亿元,同比分 别-4%/-8%/-11%/-0.2%/-6%/-7%;2025Q2收入同比分别-30%/-34%/-39%/-19%/-39%/-45%。公司近年在 环江苏(皖鲁浙沪等)销售有突破,省外计划投放淡雅。考虑整体动销承压,该行下调2025-2027年盈 利预测,预计公司2025-2027年摊薄EPS分别为2.43/2.58/2.85元/股(前值分别为2.99/3.28/3.58元/股), 当前股价对应PE为18/17/16x,维持"买入"评级。 ...
今世缘(603369):充分释压,行稳致远
GOLDEN SUN SECURITIES· 2025-08-27 01:01
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [5] Core Views - The company experienced a revenue decline of 4.8% year-on-year in H1 2025, with total revenue reaching 6.95 billion yuan and a net profit of 2.23 billion yuan, down 9.5% year-on-year [1] - Despite the revenue decline, the company has managed to increase its market share [1] - The gross margin remained stable at 73%, but the net profit margin decreased by 3.7 percentage points to 31.6% due to rising expense ratios [1] Financial Performance Summary - H1 2025 revenue breakdown: Special A+/A/B class revenues were 4.3 billion, 2.2 billion, 200 million, and 80 million yuan, with year-on-year changes of -7%, +0.7%, -10%, and -6% respectively [2] - The company’s revenue from provincial and out-of-province markets in H1 2025 was 6.3 billion and 600 million yuan, showing a year-on-year change of -6% and +5% respectively [2] - The company’s EPS forecast for 2025-2027 is adjusted to 2.43, 2.58, and 2.85 yuan per share, with corresponding PE ratios of 18, 17, and 16 times [3][4]
今世缘(603369):机制灵活主动降速,逆势投入巩固竞争地位
HUAXI Securities· 2025-08-26 14:05
Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [1] Core Views - The company has shown flexibility in its operations by actively reducing speed in response to a weakened demand environment, indicating a focus on long-term health rather than short-term performance [3] - Despite a challenging market, the company has increased its investment to maintain competitiveness and keep its team motivated [7] - The company has adjusted its revenue and profit forecasts for 2025-2027 due to the current market conditions, with expected revenues of 107.30 billion, 112.18 billion, and 115.89 billion respectively [9] Summary by Sections Event Overview - In the first half of 2025, the company achieved revenue of 69.50 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 4.84%, and a net profit of 22.29 billion, down 9.46% year-on-year [2] Analysis and Judgments - In Q2 2025, the company reported revenue of 18.52 billion, a significant decline of 29.69% year-on-year, and a net profit of 5.85 billion, down 37.06% year-on-year, reflecting the impact of a weakened industry demand [3] - The company’s product categories were affected differently, with higher-end products experiencing the most significant declines [4] - Revenue from provincial and out-of-province markets showed a decline of 32.22% and 17.82% respectively, with the out-of-province market performing slightly better due to strategic focus [5] - The company maintained a net increase in its dealer network, indicating a strategy to optimize its distribution channels [6] Profitability and Financial Metrics - The gross margin for Q2 2025 was 72.81%, showing stability despite the revenue decline, while the net profit margin was 31.57%, down 3.69 percentage points year-on-year [7] - The company has adjusted its expense ratios, with a notable increase in promotional expenses despite a decrease in overall revenue [7] Investment Recommendations - The company has revised its revenue and profit forecasts downward for 2025-2027, with expected earnings per share (EPS) adjusted to 2.42, 2.59, and 2.73 respectively [9] - The current closing price of 44.55 corresponds to a price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 18, 17, and 16 for the years 2025-2027 [9]
今世缘(603369):Q2业绩大幅下滑 主动释放压力
Xin Lang Cai Jing· 2025-08-26 06:33
Core Viewpoint - The company reported a significant decline in revenue and profit for Q2 2025, with a year-on-year decrease of 30% and 37% respectively, indicating a need for channel adjustments and a reflection of sales performance [1][3] Financial Performance - For the first half of 2025, the company achieved revenue and net profit attributable to the parent company of 6.95 billion and 2.23 billion respectively, representing a year-on-year decline of 4.8% and 9.5% [1] - In Q2 2025, the company recorded revenue and net profit of 1.85 billion and 580 million respectively, with year-on-year decreases of 29.7% and 37.1% [1] - Cash collection for Q2 was 2.02 billion, down 19.0% year-on-year, leading to a negative operating cash flow of -352 million [1] Product Performance - The performance of different product categories showed mixed results, with Special A+ and Special A categories being relatively stable, while the Opening category faced slight pressure [2] - For H1 2025, revenue by product category was as follows: Special A+ 4.31 billion, Special A 2.23 billion, A 230 million, B 80 million, and CD 30 million, with year-on-year changes of -7%, +1%, -10%, -6%, and -39% respectively [2] - In Q2 2025, the year-on-year performance for product categories was: Special A+ -32%, Special A -28%, A -40%, B -13%, and CD -42% [2] Regional Performance - In Q2 2025, revenue from domestic and foreign markets was 1.61 billion and 190 million respectively, with year-on-year declines of 32% and 18% [2] - Specific regions such as Huai'an, Nanjing, and Suzhou experienced significant year-on-year declines, with Suzhou showing a slight improvement in market share [2] Profitability Metrics - The gross margin for Q2 2025 was 72.8%, a slight decrease of 0.2 percentage points year-on-year, while the net profit margin was 31.6%, down 3.7 percentage points [3] - The increase in sales and management expense ratios contributed to the decline in profitability, with sales expense ratio at 19.0% and management expense ratio at 5.6% [3] Future Outlook - The company is expected to see a narrowing of the decline in performance and sales in the second half of the year, particularly during the peak seasons [1][3] - The company has slightly adjusted its EPS forecasts for 2025-2027 to 2.37, 2.54, and 2.73 yuan, maintaining a strong recommendation for investment [3]
今世缘(603369):2025年中报点评:放下报表,思路清晰
Huachuang Securities· 2025-08-26 03:43
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 75 yuan [2][7]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 6.95 billion yuan for H1 2025, a decrease of 4.8% year-on-year, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 2.23 billion yuan, down 9.5% year-on-year. In Q2 alone, revenue was 1.85 billion yuan, down 29.7%, and net profit was 580 million yuan, down 37.1% [2][7]. - The report indicates that the company is actively managing its inventory and has begun a phase of destocking, which is expected to relieve pressure in the coming year. The company is focusing on deepening market penetration in provincial areas and expanding its presence in key markets outside the province [7][8]. - The report highlights that the company has increased its marketing and promotional expenses, which has impacted profitability. The gross margin for Q2 was 72.8%, a slight decrease of 0.2 percentage points year-on-year [7][8]. Financial Summary - The total revenue forecast for 2025 is 10.11 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 12.4%. The net profit forecast for 2025 is 2.89 billion yuan, down 15.5% year-on-year [3][7]. - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is projected to be 2.31 yuan, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 19 times [3][7]. - The company’s total assets are estimated to reach 25.71 billion yuan by 2025, with a debt-to-equity ratio of 10.6% [3][7].
今世缘(603369):2025年中报点评:主动降速纾压,筑牢发展基础
Soochow Securities· 2025-08-26 02:43
Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company is actively managing its growth rate to alleviate pressure and strengthen its development foundation [7] - The revenue forecast for 2025 is adjusted to 10,594 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 8.24% [1] - The net profit forecast for 2025 is updated to 2,983 million yuan, indicating a year-on-year decline of 12.56% [1] - The company is focusing on enhancing its market share in the short term while aiming for breakthroughs in provincial markets [7] Financial Summary - Total revenue for 2023 is projected at 10,100 million yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 28.05% [1] - The net profit for 2023 is estimated at 3,136 million yuan, showing a year-on-year increase of 25.30% [1] - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is expected to be 2.39 yuan, down from 2.74 yuan in 2024 [1] - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio for 2025 is projected at 18.51 times [1] Market Performance - The closing price of the company's stock is 44.30 yuan, with a market capitalization of 55,233.24 million yuan [5] - The company has a price-to-book (P/B) ratio of 3.41 [5] - The company’s operating cash flow for 2024 is projected at 2,867 million yuan [8]
十年连增按下暂停!今世缘二季度净利润罕见下滑37%
Mei Ri Jing Ji Xin Wen· 2025-08-25 23:28
Core Viewpoint - The company, Jinshiyuan, has experienced a significant decline in performance, with a 9.46% decrease in net profit for the first half of the year and a 37.06% drop in the second quarter, indicating a halt in its growth momentum [1][2]. Financial Performance - For the first half of 2025, Jinshiyuan reported a revenue of 6.95 billion yuan, down 4.84% year-on-year, and a net profit of 2.229 billion yuan, down 9.46% year-on-year [2]. - In the second quarter, the company achieved a revenue of 1.852 billion yuan, a decline of 29.69% year-on-year, and a net profit of 585 million yuan, reflecting a decrease of approximately 37% [2]. Contract Liabilities - As of June 30, 2025, Jinshiyuan's contract liabilities were approximately 600 million yuan, a significant decrease of 62.35% year-on-year, suggesting a potentially pessimistic market outlook for its products [1][3]. Market Challenges - The company has faced intensified competition in the liquor industry and limitations in consumer scenarios, contributing to the poor performance of many liquor companies, including Jinshiyuan [2]. - The management has indicated a notable change in the consumption environment since late May, with high-end product sales being particularly affected [4][5]. Strategic Outlook - Jinshiyuan's management has set a 2025 operational target of achieving a revenue growth of 5% to 12% year-on-year, with net profit growth slightly lower than revenue growth [5]. - The company is focusing on maintaining market share in the short term while ensuring price stability and brand image in the long term, which poses a significant challenge in the current competitive landscape [5].
今世缘:经销商库存率约20%,预计行业实质性好转在2026年下半年
Cai Jing Wang· 2025-08-06 07:53
Core Viewpoint - The company is adapting its market strategies in response to changing consumer behavior and competitive pressures, while maintaining its strategic direction and focusing on product quality and market share growth [1][2][4]. Group 1: Market Strategy Adjustments - The company plans to accelerate the launch of its "Danyan" product in response to current market pressures, which may become a key consumer segment [1]. - There will be an increase in promotional efforts to address competition, potentially leading to a slight decrease in actual transaction prices [1]. - The company is committed to investing in high-end products to build consumer trust while adjusting prices to enhance product value [1]. Group 2: Sales Performance and Market Conditions - Since late May, the consumption environment has changed significantly, with high-end product sales declining sharply, particularly for products priced at "Four Open" and above [1]. - Despite a general decline in revenue, the company is still gaining market share, especially in the "Danyan" and lower-tier product lines [1][2]. - The company reports that the inventory rate among distributors is approximately 20%, equating to about 2.5 months of sales, indicating a healthy inventory level [2]. Group 3: Future Outlook and Consumer Trends - The company anticipates that the impact of graduation banquets on sales in August is uncertain, but there is a noted interest in higher-end products among families with better economic conditions [3]. - The industry is expected to see substantial improvement by the second half of 2026, with potential for a recovery in the fourth quarter of 2025 [3]. - The company is exploring the possibility of introducing lower-alcohol products, contingent on achieving a balance between taste and quality [3]. Group 4: Long-term Goals and Dividend Policy - The company's growth targets are seen as operational plans rather than firm commitments, with respect for market conditions influencing future performance [4]. - The "15th Five-Year Plan" goals have not yet been established, pending further assessment of market conditions [4]. - Dividend policies will be determined by shareholder meetings, with management expressing support for a more proactive dividend approach [4].
今世缘(603369):经营稳健 优势延续 省外市场持续突破
Xin Lang Cai Jing· 2025-05-23 02:27
Group 1 - The company maintains stable operational performance while seeking breakthroughs through strategies such as price stability, inventory control, and organizational adjustments [1] - During the off-season, the main products' prices remained stable, with significant year-on-year growth in order volume during festive occasions, although the average drinking volume per banquet slightly decreased [1] - The company has established a customer relationship management department to enhance professional operations and steadily grow its sales team, aiming to strengthen its competitive edge during the new adjustment cycle [1] Group 2 - The company has a clear strategy for its main products, leveraging its price range and brand advantages to continuously increase market share [2] - The company holds a strong position in the 100-500 yuan price range, benefiting from widespread consumption scenarios and strong product recognition, while also addressing market upgrades in the 300 yuan segment [2] - The V series products have performed in line with market expectations, with the V3 product showing strong development in mature markets such as Nanjing and Suzhou [2] Group 3 - The company continues to pursue development in the domestic market while focusing on regional integration in the surrounding areas for expansion [3] - There is still penetration space in the domestic market, with leading market shares in mature markets like Huai'an and Nanjing, while there are opportunities for growth in markets like Yangzhou and Taizhou [3] - The company is actively exploring new channels, with an increasing proportion of online sales and initiatives in instant retail through self-built teams and third-party collaborations [3] Group 4 - The company’s strategy of refining operations in the domestic market while aggressively expanding in surrounding areas is clear, with expectations for revenue growth of 8.5% and 10.1% in 2025-2026 [3] - Projected revenues for 2025 and 2026 are 12.525 billion and 13.789 billion yuan, respectively, with net profits expected to reach 3.672 billion and 4.017 billion yuan [3]