国盛证券研报指出，今世缘2025H1虽营收下降但市场份额仍有提升，Q2报表释压，预收款稳定。省外 和苏中表现相对略好。2025H1省内/省外收入分别为63/6亿元，同比-6%/+5%；2025Q2收入同 比-32%/-18%。省内看，2025H1淮安/南京/苏南/苏中/盐城/淮海收入分别为12/18/7/11/8/7亿元，同比分 别-4%/-8%/-11%/-0.2%/-6%/-7%；2025Q2收入同比分别-30%/-34%/-39%/-19%/-39%/-45%。公司近年在 环江苏（皖鲁浙沪等）销售有突破，省外计划投放淡雅。考虑整体动销承压，该行下调2025-2027年盈 利预测，预计公司2025-2027年摊薄EPS分别为2.43/2.58/2.85元/股（前值分别为2.99/3.28/3.58元/股）， 当前股价对应PE为18/17/16x，维持"买入"评级。 ...

国盛证券研报指出，今世缘2025H1虽营收下降但市场份额仍有提升，Q2报表释压，预收款稳定。省外 和苏中表现相对略好。2025H1省内/省外收入分别为63/6亿元，同比-6%/+5%；2025Q2收入同 比-32%/-18%。省内看，2025H1淮安/南京/苏南/苏中/盐城/淮海收入分别为12/18/7/11/8/7亿元，同比分 别-4%/-8%/-11%/-0.2%/-6%/-7%；2025Q2收入同比分别-30%/-34%/-39%/-19%/-39%/-45%。公司近年在 环江苏（皖鲁浙沪等）销售有突破，省外计划投放淡雅。考虑整体动销承压，该行下调2025-2027年盈 利预测，预计公司2025-2027年摊薄EPS分别为2.43/2.58/2.85元/股（前值分别为2.99/3.28/3.58元/股）， 当前股价对应PE为18/17/16x，维持"买入"评级。 ...

证券研究报告 | 半年报点评 gszqdatemark 2025 08 27 年 月 日 今世缘（603369.SH） 充分释压，行稳致远 省外和苏中表现相对略好。2025H1 省内/省外收入分别为 63/6 亿元，同 比-6%/+5%；2025Q2 收入同比-32%/-18%。省内看，2025H1 淮安/南京 /苏南/苏中/盐城/淮海收入分别为 12/18/7/11/8/7 亿元，同比分别-4%/- 8%/-11%/-0.2%/-6%/-7%；2025Q2 收入同比分别-30%/-34%/-39%/- 19%/-39%/-45%。公司近年在环江苏（皖鲁浙沪等）销售有突破，省外 计划投放淡雅。 盈利预测与投资建议：考虑整体动销承压，我们下调 2025-2027 年盈利预 测，预计公司 2025-2027 年摊薄 EPS 分别为 2.43/2.58/2.85 元/股（前值 分别为 2.99/3.28/3.58 元/股），当前股价对应 PE 为 18/17/16x，维持"买 入"评级。 风险提示：宏观经济波动，消费恢复不及预期，行业竞争加剧，产品结构 升级和省内外拓展不及预期等。 | 财务指标 | 2023A | ...

证券研究报告|公司点评报告 [Table_Date] 2025 年 08 月 26 日 [Table_Title] 机制灵活主动降速，逆势投入巩固竞争地位 [Table_Title2] 今世缘(603369) | [Table_DataInfo] 评级： | 买入 | 股票代码： | 603369 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 上次评级： | 买入 | 52 周最高价/最低价： | 57.36/35.35 | | 目标价格： | | 总市值(亿) | 555.45 | | 最新收盘价： | 44.55 | 自由流通市值(亿) | 555.45 | | | | 自由流通股数(百万) | 1,246.80 | [Table_Summary] 事件概述 8 月 25 日，公司发布中报。25H1，公司实现营业收入 69.50 亿元，同比-4.84%，实现归母净利润 22.29 亿 元，同比-9.46%。 分析判断: ► Q2 主动降速适应弱化的需求环境，反映企业机制灵活，追求健康长期发展。 经计算，25Q2，公司实现营业收入 18.52 亿元，同比-29.69%，实现归母净利润 5.85 ...

公司发布25 年半年报，25 Q2 收入、利润同比-30%、-37%，渠道释压，报表开启调整。分产品看，四 开、淡雅相对稳健，对开略承压。省内Q2 加速出清，部分市场延续前期势能，省外渠道仍在开拓。Q2 毛利基本稳定费用加投，盈利能力下降。二季度公司主动调整，真实反映销售，释放渠道压力，展望下 半年，我们认为在禁酒令持续纠偏和基数下降下，业绩及动销下滑幅度有望收窄，关注双节旺季。 投资建议：真实反映，渠道释压，继续"强烈推荐"。二季度公司主动调整，真实反映销售，释放渠道压 力，展望下半年，我们认为在禁酒令持续纠偏和基数下降下，业绩及动销下滑幅度有望收窄，关注双节 旺季，我们略下调25-27年EPS 预测2.37、2.54、2.73 元，当前股价对应25 年18.7X PE，继续维持"强烈 推荐"评级。 Q2 收入、利润-30%、-37%，渠道释压，报表开启调整。公司25H1 实现收入/归母净利润69.5/22.3 亿， 同比-4.8%/-9.5%。其中25Q2 实现收入/归母净利润18.5/5.8 亿，同比-29.7%/-37.1%，面对需求冲击，公 司开启调整。单Q2 现金回款20.2 亿，同比-19.0% ...

公司研究 证 券 研 究 报 告 今世缘（603369）2025 年中报点评 强推（维持） 放下报表，思路清晰 目标价：75 元 事项： ❖ 公司发布 2025 年中报，25H1 实现营收 69.5 亿元，同降 4.8%，归母净利润 22.3 亿元，同降 9.5%；单 Q2 营收 18.5 亿元，同降 29.7%，归母净利润 5.8 亿 元，同降 37.1%。单 Q2 回款 20.2 亿元，同降 18.9%，经营现金流量净额-3.5 亿元，去年同期为 2.4 亿元，合同负债 6.0 亿元，环比 Q1 末增加 0.6 亿元。 评论： ❖ 风险提示：消费复苏放缓、省内竞争加剧、高端及省外布局不及预期。 [ReportFinancialIndex] 主要财务指标 | | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入(百万) | 11,546 | 10,112 | 10,565 | 11,551 | | 同比增速(%) | 14.3% | -12.4% | 4.5% | 9.3% | | 归母净利润(百万) | 3,41 ...

证券研究报告·公司点评报告·白酒Ⅱ 今世缘（603369） 2025 年中报点评：主动降速纾压，筑牢发展 基础 买入（维持） | [Table_EPS] 盈利预测与估值 | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入（百万元） | 10,100 | 11,546 | 10,594 | 11,250 | 12,166 | | 同比（%） | 28.05 | 14.31 | (8.24) | 6.19 | 8.14 | | 归母净利润（百万元） | 3,136 | 3,412 | 2,983 | 3,214 | 3,569 | | 同比（%） | 25.30 | 8.80 | (12.56) | 7.72 | 11.07 | | EPS-最新摊薄（元/股） | 2.52 | 2.74 | 2.39 | 2.58 | 2.86 | | P/E（现价&最新摊薄） | 17.61 | 16.19 | 18.51 | 17.19 | 15.47 | [Table_Tag] [Table_Summ ...

【中国白酒网】上半年净利润同比减少9.46%，第二季度单季净利润同比减少37.06%，今世缘的业 绩增长势头，按下了暂停键。 值得关注的是，截至6月30日，今世缘上半年合同负债约6亿元，同比减少62.35%，市场对其产品 的预期或许并不乐观。此番业绩拐点向下，今世缘短期要想重回增长趋势，并非易事。 结束10年增长势头，二季度业绩首次大幅下滑 作为苏酒龙头之一，今世缘近年来一直保持着快速追赶洋河股份的势头，稳定的业绩表现正是支撑 该公司股价于高位保持坚挺的最大底气。然而在今年二季度，公司业绩却遭遇"滑铁卢"，出现了大幅下 滑。 8月25日晚间，今世缘公布了2025年中期业绩报告。根据中报，公司上半年实现营业收入69.5亿 元，同比减少4.84%；实现净利润为22.29亿元，同比减少9.46%。其中，今年二季度，今世缘营业收入 18.52亿元，同比下降29.69%；实现净利润5.85亿元，同比下降约37%。 记者注意到，虽然二季度是白酒行业传统淡季，但近10年，今世缘二季度业绩一直保持着稳定增长 的态势——2018年、2019年、2021年以及2023年的二季度单季净利润同比增幅均超过20%。2024年虽然 增速 ...

Group 1 - The company maintains stable operational performance while seeking breakthroughs through strategies such as price stability, inventory control, and organizational adjustments [1] - During the off-season, the main products' prices remained stable, with significant year-on-year growth in order volume during festive occasions, although the average drinking volume per banquet slightly decreased [1] - The company has established a customer relationship management department to enhance professional operations and steadily grow its sales team, aiming to strengthen its competitive edge during the new adjustment cycle [1] Group 2 - The company has a clear strategy for its main products, leveraging its price range and brand advantages to continuously increase market share [2] - The company holds a strong position in the 100-500 yuan price range, benefiting from widespread consumption scenarios and strong product recognition, while also addressing market upgrades in the 300 yuan segment [2] - The V series products have performed in line with market expectations, with the V3 product showing strong development in mature markets such as Nanjing and Suzhou [2] Group 3 - The company continues to pursue development in the domestic market while focusing on regional integration in the surrounding areas for expansion [3] - There is still penetration space in the domestic market, with leading market shares in mature markets like Huai'an and Nanjing, while there are opportunities for growth in markets like Yangzhou and Taizhou [3] - The company is actively exploring new channels, with an increasing proportion of online sales and initiatives in instant retail through self-built teams and third-party collaborations [3] Group 4 - The company’s strategy of refining operations in the domestic market while aggressively expanding in surrounding areas is clear, with expectations for revenue growth of 8.5% and 10.1% in 2025-2026 [3] - Projected revenues for 2025 and 2026 are 12.525 billion and 13.789 billion yuan, respectively, with net profits expected to reach 3.672 billion and 4.017 billion yuan [3]

Core Viewpoint - The company, as a leading liquor producer in Jiangsu, is expected to achieve further market share and scale growth through product structure upgrades, focused provincial channel development, and steady expansion into other provinces [1] Group 1: Financial Projections and Investment Recommendations - The company is projected to have diluted EPS of 2.99, 3.28, and 3.58 CNY per share for the years 2025-2027, with current stock prices corresponding to PE ratios of approximately 16.3, 14.8, and 13.6 times [1] - The company has achieved over 10 billion CNY in revenue in 2023, with a CAGR of 20.75% for total revenue and 20.77% for net profit attributable to shareholders from 2016 to 2024, ranking 3rd and 8th among 20 peers respectively [1] Group 2: Product Structure and Growth - The company's product revenue CAGR from 2019 to 2024 is led by the special A+ category (22%) and the special A category (17%), with these two categories expected to account for 94% of revenue by 2024 [2] - The company has focused on developing key products in the mid-range segment, benefiting from the expansion of the mid-tier market, with a significant growth rate of 37% in the special A category in 2023 [2] Group 3: Regional Expansion Strategy - The company is steadily increasing its market share in Jiangsu, with revenue ratios to Yanghe expected to improve from approximately 1:2.3 in 2019 to 1:1.2 in 2024 [3] - The company’s revenue CAGR in provincial markets is 25%, outpacing the 18% growth in its home province, with significant sales growth expected in key markets like Anhui and Shandong [3]