430亿苏酒老二，打响四大攻坚战 【中国白酒网】430亿市值的"苏酒老二"，期待延续增长故事。 12月末，今世缘董事长顾祥悦，在发展大会上回顾，过去五年，其主要指标翻番，营收突破百亿， 省内市占率大幅提升，省外超千万地级市场达40个。 所谓"量质双升，基础更牢"的答卷，给了顾祥悦信心。 "成为中国白酒最具成长性的创新型企业。"顾祥悦如此为未来定调，2026年预备全力打赢"四大攻 坚战"。 一边鼓气，一边也回归务实。 "公司现在更关注市场占有率，而不是绝对的数字目标。"此前有管理层坦言。 提振信心 按本来计划，2025年的营收力争150亿元。 只是，酒业量价齐跌、库存高企，要达到这一目标的概率很低。 1-9月，今世缘营收为88.81亿元，净利25.49亿元，同比均有两位数下滑，这种状况也是近年来罕 见。 尤其是江苏大盘的营收，缩水超10亿元，淮安、南京两大核心区域下滑超一成，省外营收仅微增 0.6%。 目前，江苏白酒市场的总规模约600亿元，今世缘的市占率达17%，仅次于洋河的24%，增长空间 接近天花板。 顾祥悦说，旗下产品矩阵得到优化，如强化国缘V系高端形象，四开、对开、淡雅等大单品的战略 成效显著，推动了 ...

（企业公众号） (编辑：林辰)关键字： 今世缘 白酒 近日，今世缘酒业官方公众号发布2026今世缘发展大会召开的消息。当中披露，"十四五"期间，今世缘 交出"量质双升，基础更牢"答卷。主要指标实现翻番，2023年营收突破百亿大关，实现历史性跨越。市 场拓展纵深推进，省内市场占有率大幅增长，省外超千万地级板块达40个。品牌产品矩阵优化，强化国 缘V系高端形象，推动四开、对开、淡雅大单品战略，今世缘品牌破局重塑，推动高沟品牌经典活化。 营销变革有序有力，推进组织变革，优化组织架构，锻造组织能力，践行"厂商一家人"理念，强力推 进"大营销管控"体系培训，促进主体优化提升。资源要素拔节起势，制曲产能和原酒产能分别突破8万 吨，陶坛贮能达30万吨，实施战略性人才"3333工程"，构建核心人才梯队。 今世缘酒业党委书记、董事长、总经理顾祥悦指出，2025年是"十四五"收官之年，今世缘厂商团队承压 奋进，拼出实干争先新图景。企业坚守战略，稳住市场基本盘，国缘V3强势出圈，省内外、电商多渠 道协同发展，管理体系持续完善，大客户开发成效显著；立足改革创新，激活动力源，供应、生产、销 售、消费端多维度提质升级；提升厂商协同，聚力 ...

Core Viewpoint - The company emphasizes that despite a positive short-term consumption trend during the holiday season, the overall consumption level is unlikely to return to previous highs, indicating a new normal in the market [1][3]. Group 1: Consumption Trends - The company observed a good consumption trend in October due to a longer holiday, increased willingness for compliant gatherings, and a rise in gifting local liquor [1]. - However, as life returns to normal in November, the consumption heat is expected to decline, suggesting a more subdued market environment [1]. - Online sales during the Double Eleven event showed positive growth compared to last year, aligning with the company's expectations and enhancing brand penetration in online consumption [1]. Group 2: Pricing and Inventory Management - The company acknowledges that e-commerce platform subsidies have a short-term impact on pricing but believes the long-term effects are limited due to low online penetration of liquor sales and consumer awareness of subsidies [2]. - The management stated that they will not intentionally pursue additional channel payments to maintain price stability, as this could lead to significant price disparities and weaken brand differentiation [2][3]. - The company is focused on maintaining a healthy inventory level and optimizing market conditions rather than pursuing superficial sales boosts [3]. Group 3: Future Growth Strategies - The company plans to continue expanding its product range across various price segments, with a focus on core products and new market opportunities [3]. - There is a recognition of the need for low-alcohol products to attract new consumer demographics, with the industry beginning to explore this segment more seriously due to current market pressures [4][5]. - The company believes that while younger consumers may initially avoid traditional liquor, they will likely engage with it as they age, particularly favoring lower-alcohol, higher-quality options [5].

Core Viewpoint - The company has observed a positive trend in alcohol consumption during October, attributed to the longer holiday period and increased social gatherings, although a return to previous consumption levels is unlikely, leading to a new normal [1] Group 1: October Consumption Trends - The management noted that the overall sentiment in October was good, driven by a longer holiday and stronger compliance in gatherings [1] - Consumption during October was largely completed in September, indicating a strong pre-holiday performance [1] - As life returns to normal in November, consumption levels are expected to decline, with a more subdued atmosphere [1] Group 2: E-commerce and Pricing Strategy - Online sales during the Double Eleven event showed positive year-on-year growth, aligning with company expectations and enhancing brand penetration in online channels [1] - The impact of e-commerce platform subsidies on white wine prices is limited in the long term, as the main consumer base remains offline [2] - The company is actively managing unauthorized online sales to protect consumer rights [2] Group 3: Market Position and Inventory Management - Despite an increase in inventory, the company is gaining market share and maintaining a stable pricing structure [3] - The company will continue to pursue a balanced approach to inventory and market conditions, avoiding superficial strategies for short-term gains [3] - Future growth will focus on a full price range strategy, with plans to expand successful products into surrounding markets [3] Group 4: Low-Alcohol Product Development - The company acknowledges the need for low-alcohol products as a response to market pressures, with a focus on attracting new consumer demographics [4] - Historical trends show that younger generations eventually engage with white wine, albeit with changing preferences towards lower-alcohol and higher-quality options [4][5] - The exploration of low-alcohol products is seen as a necessary evolution for the industry, requiring patience for successful integration [5]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [6][4][20] Core Views - The company continues to experience a decline in net profit, with a year-on-year decrease of 48.69% in Q3 2025, reflecting ongoing adjustments in its operations [1][4] - Revenue for Q3 2025 was reported at 19.31 billion yuan, down 26.78% year-on-year, indicating a persistent downward trend in sales [1][2] - The company is expected to focus on maintaining market share through increased marketing expenditures despite the pressure on overall sales [4][3] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company achieved total revenue of 88.82 billion yuan, a decrease of 10.66% year-on-year, and a net profit of 25.49 billion yuan, down 17.39% year-on-year [1] - In Q3 2025, the gross profit margin was 75.04%, a decline of 0.55 percentage points year-on-year, while the net profit margin decreased by 7.08 percentage points [3][4] Revenue Breakdown - Q3 2025 revenue from the Special A+ category was 11.23 billion yuan, down 38.04% year-on-year, while the Special A category saw revenue of 6.39 billion yuan, a slight decrease of 1.12% [2] - Direct sales channels experienced a significant increase of 65.21% year-on-year, while wholesale and agency channels saw a decline of 30.27% [2] Future Projections - The revenue forecast for 2025-2027 has been adjusted to 101.0 billion yuan, 105.5 billion yuan, and 114.1 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year change of -12.5%, +4.4%, and +8.1% respectively [4][5] - The expected net profit for the same period is projected to be 27.4 billion yuan, 28.0 billion yuan, and 31.1 billion yuan, with year-on-year changes of -19.8%, +2.3%, and +11.0% respectively [4][5]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [6][4][20] Core Views - The company continues to experience a decline in net profit, with a year-on-year decrease of 48.69% in Q3 2025, reflecting ongoing adjustments in its operations [1][4] - Revenue for Q3 2025 was reported at 19.31 billion yuan, down 26.78% year-on-year, indicating a persistent downward trend in sales [1][2] - The company is expected to focus on maintaining market share through increased marketing expenditures, particularly in the mid-range product segment, which is anticipated to perform better than higher-priced products [4][2] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company achieved total revenue of 88.82 billion yuan, a decrease of 10.66% year-on-year, and a net profit of 25.49 billion yuan, down 17.39% year-on-year [1] - In Q3 2025, the gross profit margin was 75.04%, a decline of 0.55 percentage points year-on-year, while the net profit margin decreased by 7.08 percentage points [3][4] Revenue Breakdown - Q3 2025 revenue from the Special A+ category was 11.23 billion yuan, down 38.04% year-on-year, while the Special A category saw revenue of 6.39 billion yuan, a slight decrease of 1.12% [2] - Direct sales channel revenue increased by 65.21% year-on-year to 0.96 billion yuan, while wholesale and agency channel revenue fell by 30.27% to 17.91 billion yuan [2] Future Projections - The revenue forecast for 2025-2027 has been adjusted to 101.0 billion yuan, 105.5 billion yuan, and 114.1 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year change of -12.5%, +4.4%, and +8.1% respectively [4][5] - The projected net profit for the same period is 27.4 billion yuan, 28.0 billion yuan, and 31.1 billion yuan, with year-on-year changes of -19.8%, +2.3%, and +11.0% respectively [4][5]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for Jiangsu King's Luck [2][9] Core Insights - The company reported a total revenue of RMB 8.88 billion for Q1 to Q3 2025, a decrease of 10.7% year-on-year, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of RMB 2.55 billion, down 17.4% year-on-year [3][11] - Q3 alone saw total operating revenue of RMB 1.93 billion, down 26.8% year-on-year, and a net profit of RMB 320 million, down 48.7% year-on-year [11][12] - The report indicates that the baijiu industry is currently in a bottoming phase, with profit compression from destocking being unavoidable, but the company's strong provincial market position is expected to support a rebound in performance [14] Financial Performance Summary - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are estimated at RMB 10.28 billion, RMB 11.00 billion, and RMB 11.87 billion respectively, with net profits of RMB 2.69 billion, RMB 2.89 billion, and RMB 3.12 billion [6][14] - The diluted EPS for the same period is projected to be RMB 2.16, RMB 2.31, and RMB 2.50 [6][14] - The gross profit margin for Q3 2025 was reported at 75.0%, down 0.6 percentage points year-on-year, while the net profit margin decreased by 7.1 percentage points to 16.6% [13][12] Product and Market Analysis - In Q3 2025, revenue from high-end products (Special A+ tier) fell by 38.0%, while mid-tier products showed resilience with a decline of only 1.1% [4][12] - The company's revenue from provincial markets decreased by 29.8% year-on-year, while extra-provincial revenue declined by 13.8%, indicating better performance in extra-provincial markets [4][12] - Direct sales revenue grew by 47.6% year-on-year, contrasting with a 30.3% decline in wholesale agency revenue [4][12]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [5] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 1.93 billion yuan in Q3 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 26.8%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 320 million yuan, down 48.7% year-on-year [1] - Cumulative revenue for the first three quarters of 2025 was 8.88 billion yuan, a decline of 10.7% year-on-year, with a net profit of 2.55 billion yuan, down 17.4% year-on-year [1] - The company is experiencing pressure on sales, particularly in the high-end and above segments, while the mid-range products are performing relatively stable [2] - The company has adjusted its earnings forecasts for 2025-2027, with expected diluted EPS of 2.15, 2.28, and 2.48 yuan per share for the respective years [3] Financial Performance Summary - Q3 2025 revenue breakdown: Special A+ category (above 300 yuan) revenue was 1.12 billion yuan, down 38% year-on-year; Special A category (100-300 yuan) revenue was 640 million yuan, down 1% year-on-year; A category (50-100 yuan) revenue was 70 million yuan, down 37% year-on-year; B category (20-50 yuan) revenue was 30 million yuan, down 27% year-on-year [2] - The gross margin for Q3 2025 was 75.0%, a slight decrease of 0.6 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to product mix effects [1] - The net profit margin decreased by 7.1 percentage points year-on-year to 16.6% due to rising expense ratios [1] Regional Performance Summary - Revenue from the domestic market in Q3 2025 was 1.7 billion yuan, down 14% year-on-year, while revenue from outside the province was 200 million yuan, down 30% year-on-year [2] - The Suzhong region showed positive growth, benefiting from years of market accumulation, while some areas outside the province are considering early introduction of new products [2] Earnings Forecasts - The report projects a decline in earnings due to overall industry pressure, with revised EPS estimates for 2025-2027 being 2.15, 2.28, and 2.48 yuan per share, respectively [3] - The current stock price corresponds to a PE ratio of 18, 17, and 15 times for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 [3]

Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the food and beverage industry is "Outperform the Market" and is maintained [1] Core Viewpoints - The performance of the liquor sector improved during the National Day holiday, with stable demand for banquets and better sales in the mass price range. The high-end and mid-low price segments performed relatively well, while the sub-high-end segment faced pressure. Overall, the performance aligns with market expectations, indicating a gradual bottoming out in sales and performance for liquor companies [3][13] - The food and beverage sector index (801120.SL) experienced a slight decline of -0.15% this week, ranking 18th among 30 first-level industries, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 0.36 percentage points. The current dynamic PE for the industry is 21.51 [7][16] Summary by Relevant Sections Weekly Observation - The liquor sales during the National Day holiday showed a general improvement compared to previous months, with stable banquet demand. Top brands like Moutai maintained prices above 1800 RMB, while second and third-tier brands faced price adjustments and inventory pressures. The overall performance is consistent with capital market expectations, indicating a gradual recovery phase for liquor companies [3][13] Industry Performance - The food and beverage sector saw a mixed performance, with 10 sub-sectors, excluding other alcoholic beverages and liquor, showing increases. The highest gain was in soft drinks, which rose by 4.86% [7][16] Key Company Announcements - Wuliangye announced a stock buyback plan, acquiring 6,273,266 shares, representing 0.16% of its total shares, for a total amount of approximately 800 million RMB [22] - Jinsiyuan reported a significant revenue decline of nearly 30% in Q2, aligning with market sales trends [22] Important Industry News - The liquor industry is undergoing a transformation characterized by slower sales, channel restructuring, and increased differentiation, laying the groundwork for long-term development [25]

Core Viewpoint - The report from Guosheng Securities indicates that despite a decline in revenue for Jiuziyuan in the first half of 2025, the company has managed to increase its market share, with stable advance payments and better performance in certain regions [1] Revenue Performance - In H1 2025, the company's revenue from within the province was 6.3 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 6%, while revenue from outside the province was 600 million yuan, showing a year-on-year increase of 5% [1] - For Q2 2025, the revenue decreased by 32% year-on-year for the province and 18% for outside the province [1] Regional Breakdown - In H1 2025, revenue from various regions within the province was as follows: Huai'an 1.2 billion yuan (-4%), Nanjing 1.8 billion yuan (-8%), Suzhou South 700 million yuan (-11%), Suzhou Central 1.1 billion yuan (-0.2%), Yancheng 800 million yuan (-6%), and Huaihai 700 million yuan (-7%) [1] - In Q2 2025, the year-on-year revenue changes for these regions were: Huai'an -30%, Nanjing -34%, Suzhou South -39%, Suzhou Central -19%, Yancheng -39%, and Huaihai -45% [1] Strategic Developments - The company has made breakthroughs in sales in regions surrounding Jiangsu (including Anhui, Shandong, Zhejiang, and Shanghai) and plans to launch a new product line called "Danya" outside the province [1] Earnings Forecast - Due to overall sales pressure, the earnings forecast for 2025-2027 has been revised downwards, with expected diluted EPS of 2.43, 2.58, and 2.85 yuan per share for the respective years, compared to previous estimates of 2.99, 3.28, and 3.58 yuan per share [1] - The current stock price corresponds to a PE ratio of 18, 17, and 16 times for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with a maintained "buy" rating [1]