Investment Rating - The report suggests a focus on companies with high earnings growth certainty and relatively high dividend support in the domestic furniture sector, as well as certain export companies with strong growth logic or overseas production capacity advantages [4][9]. Core Insights - The furniture retail sales in China saw a year-on-year increase of 25.6% in May, with a cumulative increase of 21.4% from January to May. However, the overall order situation has weakened since June, indicating a potential fatigue in demand stimulation from national subsidies [4][9]. - In the new tobacco sector, the glo hilo product launched in Japan is expected to accelerate revenue growth in the second half of 2025, supported by strong marketing resources from BAT [4][12]. - The paper packaging sector is experiencing price stability, with a focus on growth-oriented packaging companies. The report highlights the need to monitor the performance of major paper types and the overall supply pressure in the market [4][15]. - The light consumer goods and pet sectors are seeing increased online competition, with a focus on companies that demonstrate clear growth narratives and operational capabilities [4][16]. - The two-wheeler market is expected to see a rebound in the second half of the year, driven by new national standards and product launches, despite a temporary slowdown due to subsidy fund exhaustion [4][19]. Summary by Sections Furniture Sector - Domestic retail sales of furniture increased by 25.6% in May, with a cumulative increase of 21.4% from January to May. However, the order situation has weakened since June, indicating potential fatigue in demand stimulation [4][9]. - Recommended companies include Sofía, Gujia Home, Mousse, and others, focusing on those with high earnings growth certainty and dividend support [4][9]. New Tobacco - The glo hilo product launched in Japan is expected to accelerate revenue growth in the second half of 2025, with strong marketing support from BAT [4][12]. - Recommended companies include Smoore International, which is expected to benefit from the expansion of the overseas compliant market [4][12]. Paper and Packaging - The paper sector is experiencing price stability, with major paper types showing no significant improvement in orders. The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring growth-oriented packaging companies [4][15]. - Recommended companies include Yutong Technology and others, focusing on those with stable operations and growth potential [4][15]. Light Consumer Goods & Pets - The light consumer goods sector is seeing increased online competition, with a focus on companies that demonstrate clear growth narratives and operational capabilities [4][16]. - Recommended companies include Guibao Pet and others, focusing on those with resilient consumer demand and growth potential [4][16]. Two-Wheeler Market - The two-wheeler market is expected to see a rebound in the second half of the year, driven by new national standards and product launches, despite a temporary slowdown due to subsidy fund exhaustion [4][19]. - Recommended companies include Yadi Holdings and others, focusing on those with strong product capabilities and market expansion potential [4][19].

Investment Rating - The report suggests a positive long-term investment outlook for the home furnishing sector, particularly for companies with high dividend support and strong growth potential in 2025 [4][11]. Core Insights - The home furnishing sector is experiencing weak domestic order intake since May, with government subsidies losing their stimulating effect on demand. However, there are long-term investment opportunities for leading domestic companies with high earnings growth certainty and attractive valuations [4][11]. - The new tobacco sector is expected to see a mid-single-digit growth in H1 2025, with a potential for double-digit growth when excluding the impact of illegal vaping products in North America. The HNB business is anticipated to accelerate in H2 2025 [4][12]. - The paper industry is stabilizing with paper prices holding steady, but overall demand remains weak due to seasonal factors, leading to a forecast of continued weak pricing [4][13]. - The light consumer goods and pet sectors are showing high growth potential, with a focus on companies that demonstrate clear performance and innovative product offerings [4][14]. - The two-wheeler sector is facing short-term pressure but is expected to rebound in H2 2025 with the implementation of new national standards and the continuation of trade-in policies [4][15]. Summary by Sections Home Furnishing Sector - Domestic order intake has been weak since May, with government subsidies losing effectiveness. There is a recommendation to focus on leading domestic companies with high earnings growth certainty and attractive valuations for long-term investment [4][11]. - Specific companies recommended include Sophia, Gujia Home, and Mousse, which are expected to benefit from strategic channel improvements and product innovations [4][11]. New Tobacco Sector - British American Tobacco has updated its H1 2025 earnings expectations, forecasting low single-digit growth, with a potential acceleration in H2 2025. The HNB business is expected to see significant growth due to successful product launches in key markets [4][12]. - The report emphasizes the importance of compliance brands and the growth opportunities within the industry as regulations tighten against illegal products [4][12]. Paper Industry - Paper prices are stabilizing, with prices for various paper types remaining unchanged. However, demand is weak due to seasonal factors, and the overall pricing outlook remains weak [4][13]. - The report notes that inventory levels are high, and supply pressures are expected to increase due to rising imports from Brazil [4][13]. Light Consumer Goods & Pet Sector - The report highlights the importance of innovation and clear performance metrics in the light consumer goods and pet sectors. Companies like Guibao Pet are noted for their strong market positioning and growth potential [4][14]. - The introduction of new products and the expansion of online sales channels are key growth drivers [4][14]. Two-Wheeler Sector - The two-wheeler market is experiencing short-term pressure but is expected to recover in H2 2025 with new regulations and product launches. Companies like Yadi Holdings are recommended for their strong market position and growth potential [4][15]. - The report suggests focusing on companies with strong product offerings and effective channel strategies [4][15].

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive outlook for the new tobacco products industry, with a focus on the growth potential of smokeless tobacco and nicotine pouch segments [8]. Core Insights - The global market for new tobacco products is projected to reach $86.96 billion in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 13.1%, with significant contributions from smokeless tobacco, vaping, heated tobacco, and oral nicotine products [2][17]. - The report highlights the strong performance of smokeless tobacco and nicotine pouch products, with the latter expected to grow by 51.0% year-on-year in 2024 [2][3]. - The market dynamics are shifting, with North America, Western Europe, and Asia-Pacific regions showing robust growth, particularly in the U.S., which remains the largest market for new tobacco products [23][24]. Summary by Sections 1. Global Market Overview - The new tobacco products market is expanding steadily, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 16.8% from 2017 to 2024 [17]. - By 2025, the market is expected to continue its growth trajectory, with projections indicating increases across all product categories [2][17]. 2. Nicotine Pouches - The global nicotine pouch market is experiencing rapid growth, with a projected market size of 21.2 billion pouches in 2024, marking a 37% increase year-on-year [3]. - Major tobacco companies dominate this segment, with significant market shares held by PMI, BAT, and Altria [3]. 3. Philip Morris International (PMI) - PMI's revenue from new tobacco products is expected to reach $14.66 billion in 2024, a 17.0% increase, with heated tobacco product shipments growing by 11.5% [4]. - The number of PMI's new tobacco users has reached 32.2 million, with a 72.0% replacement rate of traditional cigarette consumers [4]. 4. British American Tobacco (BAT) - BAT is accelerating its "smokeless strategy," with its modern oral tobacco segment showing a 47% revenue increase [5]. - The launch of the Glo Hilo product is anticipated to disrupt the current heated tobacco market dynamics [5]. 5. Altria - Altria's NJOY brand has shown significant growth, with a 15.3% increase in sales volume in 2024 [6]. - The on! brand also experienced a 40.2% increase in sales, indicating a strong performance in the oral nicotine segment [6]. 6. Imperial Brands - Imperial Brands reported a 24.2% revenue increase in its new tobacco segment, driven by strong performance in Europe [6]. - The company is actively launching new products to cater to changing consumer preferences [6]. 7. Japan Tobacco - Japan Tobacco's new tobacco revenue is projected to reach 989 billion yen in 2024, reflecting a 21.1% increase [7]. - The Ploom brand is expanding its presence in emerging markets, contributing to overall sales growth [7]. 8. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on companies like Smoore International, which is well-positioned to benefit from the expanding vaping market and partnerships with major players like BAT and NJOY [8].

Company and Industry Summary Company Overview - The company reported a revenue of 11.8 billion and a net profit of 1.3 billion for 2024, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 5.3% in revenue but a decrease of 20.8% in net profit [1] - The overall profit met expectations, with a recovery trend observed in ODM (Original Design Manufacturer) business revenue in the second half of the year [1] ODM Business Insights - The ODM business is projected to decline by 0.3% for the entire year 2024, but is expected to grow by 9.7% year-on-year in the second half [1] - Recovery in the ODM business is noted across various regions, with the United States and Europe showing growth rates of 5.1% and 14.2% respectively in the second half [1] - The Chinese market for ODM is expected to see a year-on-year increase of 25.1%, reaching 240 million [1] - The overall assessment aligns with previous expectations regarding the end of the global downturn for the company's aerosol ODM business [1] OBM Business Performance - The OBM (Original Brand Manufacturer) business is projected to generate 2.48 billion in revenue for the year, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 34%, with a 13.4% increase in the second half [1] R&D Investment - The company is increasing its R&D investment, with a projected R&D expenditure of 1.57 billion for 2024, marking a 6% year-on-year increase, primarily focused on HNB (Heated Not Burned) and medical aerosol products [2] Future Outlook - 2025 is anticipated to be a turning point for the company's performance, with long-term growth expected [2] - Two core growth drivers are emphasized: 1. **Aerosol Products**: The company is closely tied to leading tobacco groups and is expected to benefit significantly from the expansion of the compliant market in the U.S., where over 70% of aerosol sales are currently from the illegal market, as well as from category shifts in Europe [2] 2. **HNB Products**: The glo hilo product line is considered to have a competitive edge, with strong potential for market share growth as major clients express positive sentiments [2] Key Catalysts to Monitor - The market sales performance and consumer feedback for the gloHilo product line in key countries (excluding Serbia) after its launch in 2025 [2] - The regulatory environment for aerosol electronic cigarettes in the U.S. and Europe, and the pace of expansion in the compliant aerosol market [2]