Core Viewpoint - The recent sell-off in precious metals and mining stocks, driven by retail investors, has created a potential buying opportunity for industrial metals, supported by fundamental catalysts such as AI infrastructure development and global fiscal expansion [1][10]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - Retail investors significantly contributed to the market volatility, with a record net inflow of $171 million into the iShares Silver ETF on the day before the sell-off [2]. - The iShares Silver ETF experienced its largest drop since its inception in 2006, while the NYSE Arca Gold Miners Index recorded its steepest decline since 2008 [2][7]. - The sell-off was triggered by the nomination of Kevin Warsh as the next Federal Reserve Chair, which led to a rebound in the dollar and a sharp decline in precious metal prices, with gold dropping 9% and silver over 20% [7]. Group 2: Investment Trends - The MSCI Metals and Mining Index has surged nearly 90% since 2025, outperforming major tech indices, indicating a shift in investor focus towards metals and mining stocks [3]. - The "YOLO" investment group, characterized by aggressive trading strategies, has increased participation in metal-related stocks, leading to heightened market volatility [4][8]. - The influx of retail investor capital into silver ETFs has been compared to the trading activity of major companies like Nvidia, highlighting the intense interest in these assets [7]. Group 3: Industrial Metals Outlook - Barclays Bank suggests that the recent sell-off presents a buying opportunity for industrial metals, which are less crowded and have clearer fundamental catalysts compared to precious metals [10]. - The demand for copper is projected to grow by approximately 50% by 2040 due to new applications in AI and electrification, indicating a structural shift in demand dynamics [11][12]. - Major tech companies are heavily investing in AI data centers, which are expected to drive significant copper demand, further solidifying copper's role as a critical resource in the evolving economy [12].

Group 1 - The extreme surge in silver prices is leading to a significant increase in trading volume for the iShares Silver ETF (SLV), with nearly $40 billion in trading volume recorded on Monday, surpassing Nvidia's $23 billion and Tesla's $22 billion on the same day [2] - The average daily trading volume for the iShares Silver ETF was approximately $2 billion a few months ago, which jumped to about $10 billion by late December 2025, and has further increased with the recent price surge [2] - Silver prices have more than doubled in 2025, with a nearly 60% increase in January 2026, potentially setting the stage for the largest monthly gain since 1979 [2] Group 2 - The current price action indicates two possible scenarios for silver: either it breaks the historical high of $117.7 and continues to rise towards $129-$133 before a potential decline, or it fails to break the new high and instead drops below $100, initiating a downward adjustment [3] - If silver prices fall below $100, the first support level will be the January 23 low of $96.14, followed by the January 21 swing low of $90.46 [3]

Group 1 - Gold and silver prices have reached all-time highs, with gold surpassing $4500 per ounce and silver exceeding $72 per ounce, marking a year-to-date increase of over 70% for gold and approximately 150% for silver [1] - Multiple factors contributing to the rise in precious metal prices include geopolitical tensions involving the US and Venezuela, potential conflicts between Iran and Israel, the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict, a weakening dollar, and rising expectations for interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [1] - The market anticipates a "dovish" stance from the new Federal Reserve chairman, which is expected to benefit international silver prices significantly [1] Group 2 - The demand for silver is increasing, as evidenced by a significant rise in holdings of the iShares Silver ETF, which saw an increase of 533 tons on December 23, indicating tight supply in the physical silver market [2] - Analysts believe that gold prices will continue to rise due to increasing US debt risks, a declining attractiveness of dollar assets, strong global central bank interest in gold, and an ongoing interest rate cut cycle in the US [2] - Despite the bullish outlook for gold and silver, there are warnings about potential short-term risks, with suggestions for investors to manage their positions carefully and avoid blind increases in holdings [2]

Group 1 - Gold and silver prices have reached all-time highs, with gold surpassing $4500 per ounce and silver exceeding $72 per ounce, marking increases of over 70% and approximately 150% respectively this year [1] - Factors contributing to the rise in gold and silver prices include geopolitical tensions involving the US and Venezuela, potential conflicts between Iran and Israel, uncertainties surrounding the Russia-Ukraine conflict, a weakening dollar, and rising expectations for interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [1] - The market anticipates a dovish stance from the new Federal Reserve chairman, which has positively impacted international silver prices [1] Group 2 - The iShares Silver ETF has seen a significant increase in holdings, with a daily rise of 533 tons on December 23, indicating a tightening supply in the silver market [2] - The rental rates for physical silver have reached their highest levels in nearly five years, further supporting the recent surge in silver prices due to supply constraints [2] Group 3 - Analysts believe that gold prices will continue to rise due to increasing US debt risks, diminishing attractiveness of dollar assets, strong global central bank interest in gold, and an ongoing interest rate cut cycle in the US [3] - Despite the bullish outlook for gold and silver, there are warnings about potential short-term risks, with suggestions for investors to manage their positions carefully [4] - Reports indicate that while gold prices are expected to rise steadily, silver prices may experience greater short-term volatility [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the document. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Last week, precious metal prices continued to be strong, with London spot gold approaching the historical high of $4,380 in October, and London spot silver reaching a new historical high of $67. The short - term K - line shows no turning signal. After Tuesday, the Fed's interest rate cut expectation rebounded slightly due to补发 of non - farm and CPI employment data, indicating downward pressure on the US economy and easing inflation [2]. - Since the end of November, silver has outperformed gold, and the gold - silver ratio has dropped significantly due to factors such as low supply elasticity and low inventory of silver, large deliveries of COMEX 2512 contracts, rigid industrial demand, continuous inflow of ETF investment demand (but a weekly outflow of 36.7 tons from the iShares Silver ETF last week), growth expectations of silver demand from green new energy and digital AI economy, and concerns about import tariffs caused by the uncertainty of the US 232 mineral survey results [3]. - Near - term trading logic (before January 2026): Be cautious about chasing high silver prices as price correction risks are accumulating. Factors include high implied volatility of SHFE silver options, potential technical support for the gold - silver ratio, alleviation of concentrated delivery pressure, possible release of the US 232 mineral survey results, and potential phased selling of silver by some indices and products [3]. - Long - term trading logic (after January 2026): Pay attention to the change of the US dollar index, the Fed's interest rate cut rhythm and RMP operation in the first half of 2026, central bank gold purchases under the de - dollarization trend, and the growth prospects of investment demand. Also, focus on key resource demand and tariff policies under anti - globalization and trade protection [4]. - Trend judgment: The short - term trend remains oscillating and strong. Gold should pay attention to the previous high resistance, and silver should be aware of the profit - taking pressure. The support and resistance levels for London spot gold are $4,100 - $4,250 - $4,400, and for London spot silver are $60 - $65 - $70. The unilateral strategy is to hold existing long positions cautiously. For gold, if it breaks through the historical high on the daily line, consider chasing the long position; for silver, be cautious about chasing high in the short term [4][5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Core Contradictions and Strategy Recommendations 3.1.1 Core Contradictions - Precious metal price trends: London spot gold and silver showed strong performance last week, with no short - term turning signal in the K - line [2]. - Factors influencing price: The Fed's interest rate cut expectation rebounded slightly after Tuesday due to economic data, and the competition for the Fed Chairman candidate continued to ferment, with all three candidates being dovish supporters of loose money [2]. - Silver performance: Since the end of November, silver has far outperformed gold, and the gold - silver ratio has dropped significantly due to multiple factors [3]. - Trading logic: Near - term trading logic focuses on the appointment of the new Fed Chairman and economic data's impact on monetary policy expectations. Long - term trading logic involves factors such as the US dollar index, the Fed's interest rate cut rhythm, and investment demand [3][4]. 3.1.2 Trading - type Strategy Recommendations - Trend judgment: Short - term oscillation is still strong, with different key points for gold and silver [4]. - Support and resistance levels: Given for London spot gold and silver [5]. - Strategy: Unilateral strategy suggests cautious holding of existing long positions, with different approaches for gold and silver [5]. 3.1.3 Interest Rate Cut Expectation Changes - Tables show the changes in interest rate cut expectations in the US from December 2025 to April 2027, including target rates, effective rates, implied overnight rates, and expected interest rate cuts or increases at different meetings [8][11]. 3.2 Market Information 3.2.1 This Week's Event Concerns - Monday: Fed Governor Milan will speak at 22:30, and FOMC permanent voter and New York Fed President Williams will speak on the economic outlook at 23:30. - Wednesday: FOMC permanent voter and New York Fed President Williams will give an opening speech at the 2025 Foreign Exchange Market Structure Conference hosted by the New York Fed at 22:05. - Thursday: The Bank of England will announce the interest rate decision and meeting minutes at 20:00, and the European Central Bank will announce the interest rate decision at 21:25. - Friday: Bank of Japan Governor Ueda Kazuo will hold a monetary policy press conference at 14:30, and the Bank of Japan will also announce the interest rate decision [15][16]. 3.2.2 Last Week and This Week's Data Concerns - Last week, the US and China released a series of economic indicators, including non - farm employment, inflation, and consumption data. This week, the US and China are expected to release economic indicators such as construction permits, GDP, and industrial profits [17]. 3.3 Futures and Price Data 3.3.1 International Precious Metal Market - Shows the latest prices, weekly changes, and weekly change rates of international precious metals such as London gold and silver spot, COMEX gold and silver, and related ETF holdings and CFTC positions [20]. 3.3.2 Domestic Precious Metal Market - Presents the latest prices, weekly changes, and weekly change rates of domestic precious metals such as SHFE gold and silver futures and related inventories [21]. 3.3.3 US Financial Asset Performance - Displays the latest prices, weekly changes, and weekly change rates of US financial assets such as the US dollar index, US Treasury yields, and major stock indices [21]. 3.3.4 Domestic Financial Market - Shows the latest prices, weekly changes, and weekly change rates of domestic financial assets such as the US dollar - RMB exchange rate, domestic stock indices, and domestic Treasury yields [22]. 3.3.5 Futures Positions - Includes information on CFTC positions related to gold and silver, and the relationship between domestic futures indices and positions [24][25][27]. 3.4 Macroeconomic Information 3.4.1 FOMC Post - meeting Statements - Compares the FOMC post - meeting statements on December 11, 2025, and October 30, 2025, including fundamental assessment, risk assessment, policy goals, policy decisions, and voting results [30]. 3.4.2 Economic Forecast Tables - Presents the economic forecast tables of the December FOMC, including real GDP growth, unemployment rate, inflation rate, and federal funds rate from 2025 to 2028 and in the long - term [31]. 3.4.3 US CPI and Related Data - Displays the US CPI data by category, including food, energy, and core CPI, and shows the year - on - year and month - on - month changes [37]. 3.5 Sensitive Demand and Valuation 3.5.1 Sensitive Demand - ETF Investment Demand - Includes information on the relationship between gold and silver long - term fund holdings and prices, as well as the holdings of Chinese TOP3 gold ETFs and Huaan Gold ETF [47][48]. 3.5.2 Valuation Anchoring - Related Assets - Covers the COMEX gold - silver ratio, the relationship between gold and the US dollar index, US Treasury real interest rates, and other related assets and indicators [49][51][52]. 3.5.3 Global Major Exchange Inventories - Shows the inventories of gold and silver in LBMA, COMEX, and SHFE, as well as the total inventories of gold and silver in multiple exchanges [68][70][71].

Group 1 - The iShares Silver Trust, the world's largest silver ETF, saw a decrease in holdings by 42.31 tons as of December 16, bringing the current holdings to 16,018.29 tons [1]

Core Insights - As of September 18, the world's largest silver ETF, iShares Silver Trust, saw an increase in holdings by 15.53 tons, bringing the total holdings to 15,205.14 tons [1] Group 1 - The iShares Silver Trust is recognized as the largest silver ETF globally [1] - The increase in holdings indicates a growing interest in silver as an investment [1] - The current total holdings of the iShares Silver Trust stand at 15,205.14 tons [1]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report The precious metals market declined under pressure due to the easing of geopolitical and trade tariff concerns, despite the warming of interest - rate cut expectations during the week. The medium - to long - term trend may be bullish, but the short - term technical pattern is weak and under pressure. The report suggests maintaining the idea of buying on dips [1][5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - Last week, gold prices in the precious metals market declined, and silver prices were volatile. Geopolitical tensions eased as the Iran - Israel conflict in the Middle East calmed down, reducing the safe - haven demand for precious metals. The trade tariff deadline was postponed, and the expectation of a Fed rate cut in September increased [1]. 3.2 Fund and Inventory - Long - term fund positions: The SPDR Gold ETF's weekly holdings increased by 4.58 tons to 954.82 tons, and the iShares Silver ETF's weekly holdings increased by 115.91 tons to 14,866.18 tons. - Short - term fund positions: As of June 24, according to the CFTC report, gold non - commercial net long positions decreased by 5,644 contracts to 195,004 contracts, and silver non - commercial net long positions decreased by 4,227 contracts to 62,947 contracts. - Inventory: COMEX gold inventory decreased by 16.3 tons to 1,152.3 tons, COMEX silver inventory increased by 112.7 tons to 15,523.5 tons, SHFE gold inventory increased by 69 kg to 18.24 tons, SHFE silver inventory increased by 65.43 tons to 1,295.7 tons, and Shanghai Gold Exchange silver inventory decreased by 21 tons to 1,357.8 tons [2]. 3.3 This Week's Focus - Data: Pay attention to the US non - farm payrolls report on Thursday night. - Events: The US Senate will vote on the "Great Beauty" bill, and several Fed officials will give speeches. The COMEX precious metals trading will end early on Friday due to the Independence Day holiday [4]. 3.4 Price and Related Ratios - SHFE gold main contract price was 766.4 yuan/gram, down 1.15%; SGX gold TD price was 763.08 yuan/gram, down 1.32%; CME gold main contract price was 3,286.1 dollars/ounce, down 1.66%. - SHFE silver main contract price was 8,792 yuan/kg, down 0.05%; SGX silver TD price was 8,748 yuan/kg, down 0.28%; CME silver main contract price was 36.165 dollars/ounce, down 1.05%. - CME gold - silver ratio was 90.8641, down 0.61% [6]. 3.5 Other Market Data - The US dollar index was 97.2616, down 0.05%; the US dollar against the Chinese yuan was 7.1643, unchanged. - The Dow Jones Industrial Average was 43,819.27 points, up 1%; WTI crude oil spot price was 65.52 dollars/barrel, up 0.43%. - LmeS copper 03 price was 9,896 dollars/ton, up 1.74%; 10 - year US Treasury yield was 4.29%, up 0.7%; 10 - year US real interest rate was 2%, up 1.01%; 10 - 2 - year US Treasury yield spread was 0.56%, unchanged [17].