Jing Ji Guan Cha Bao
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近代化的中国“弹性”——对弹性社会与超稳定结构的一种解读
Jing Ji Guan Cha Bao· 2025-07-14 07:52
Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the concepts of "elastic society" and "ultra-stable structure" to explain the long-term stability and stagnation of traditional Chinese society, highlighting their differences in perspective, methodology, and conclusions [1][4]. Group 1: Elastic Society - The "elastic society" theory defines traditional Chinese society as having a "premature yet immature" elastic structure, capable of absorbing transformative energy through its diverse economic base and complex control systems, but unable to break free from established frameworks [1][3]. - This theory emphasizes the resilience of the multi-faceted structure, where new and old factors coexist, showcasing class conflicts and interactions between local gentry and state power, as well as the interplay of economic drivers and extra-economic forces [1][3]. - The theory also points out that while there are gradual internal adjustments, the society remains locked within its original structure, unable to achieve a fundamental transformation [4][22]. Group 2: Ultra-Stable Structure - The "ultra-stable structure" concept posits that traditional Chinese society, from the Qin to the Qing dynasties, exhibited a system characterized by periodic oscillations, where upheavals like dynastic changes and peasant uprisings occurred frequently but did not disrupt the deep structural stability [1][3]. - This structure is marked by a self-repair mechanism, where each upheaval leads to a restoration of the old political, economic, and ideological order, indicating a resistance to fundamental change [3][4]. - The theory highlights the rigidity of the system, where ideological and technological stagnation, along with policies that suppress commercial capital accumulation, hinder social progress [3][4]. Group 3: Comparison of Theories - Both theories differ in their historical explanatory focus, with the "elastic society" emphasizing micro-level resilience and adaptability, while the "ultra-stable structure" underscores macro-level systemic rigidity [4][5]. - The theories are complementary, with the "elastic society" providing a micro-foundation for the "ultra-stable structure," illustrating the tension between dynamic adjustments and systemic locks [4][5]. - The "elastic society" reveals the contradictions of absorbing transformative energy while being constrained by traditional norms, while the "ultra-stable structure" explains the deep mechanisms resisting qualitative change [4][5]. Group 4: Urban Types and Historical Context - The article contrasts two types of cities: "Su-Hang" and "Kaifeng," interpreting them through the lenses of the two theories, where "Su-Hang" embodies characteristics of an elastic society and "Kaifeng" exemplifies an ultra-stable structure [6][7]. - "Su-Hang" cities experienced economic expansion and a flexible interaction between local autonomy and central authority, while "Kaifeng" cities maintained a singular economic structure, lacking elasticity and remaining dependent on agricultural foundations [6][7]. - The geographical and historical contexts of these cities illustrate the broader dynamics of Chinese civilization, with the Jiangnan region favoring an elastic society and the Central Plains leaning towards an ultra-stable structure [7][8]. Group 5: Industrial Revolution and Response - The article discusses how the Industrial Revolution posed a challenge to the ultra-stable structure, leading to a breakdown of traditional systems through external and internal forces [11][12]. - The response to this disruption was marked by the "Self-Strengthening Movement," which emerged from the elastic society's resilience, indicating a shift towards modernization despite the constraints of the ultra-stable structure [12][14]. - The movement highlighted the tension between traditional structures and emerging capitalist dynamics, revealing the limitations of the elastic society in achieving a comprehensive transformation [21][24].
宋宇翔:岛屿的姿态
Jing Ji Guan Cha Bao· 2025-07-14 07:52
通过《恒星》,宋宇翔深入探索时间与存在的哲学命题。影片中,闪烁的恒星既象征着永恒不朽的时 间,又隐喻着个体在浩瀚宇宙与漫长历史中的渺小与坚韧。艺术家以极具创造力的拍摄手法与后期制 作,让时间在画面中具象化,或是以缓慢流逝的光影模拟时间的绵长,或是通过快速切换的场景表现时 间的瞬息万变。而对于存在的思考,则贯穿于每一个画面、每一段情节之中,引导观众在观赏的过程 中,对自我的存在价值、生命的意义展开深刻反思。这场展览不仅是宋宇翔艺术创作的一次全新突破, 更是一次邀请观众共同探寻艺术深层内涵与人生真谛的奇妙之旅,值得每一位艺术爱好者前来沉浸式体 验。 (原标题:宋宇翔:岛屿的姿态) 在艺术探索的深邃星河里,"可以?幕后计划第二回"重磅推出艺术家宋宇翔的个人艺术项目,一场震撼 心灵的视听盛宴即将拉开帷幕。此次展览将独家呈现宋宇翔的最新影像力作《恒星》,这部精心雕琢的 作品犹如一把独特的钥匙,将为观众打开一扇通往奇幻艺术世界的大门。 步入展览空间,观众仿若踏入一条神秘的时光隧道。《恒星》以极具张力的视觉语言与细腻的叙事节 奏,构建起一幅精妙绝伦的动态图景。作品巧妙地将私密记忆与集体历史交织融合,时而镜头聚焦于艺 术家个 ...
年中资本风向
Jing Ji Guan Cha Bao· 2025-07-14 06:16
Group 1: Market Performance - The A-share Shanghai Composite Index returned to 3500 points on July 10, with bank stocks, seen as the "economic beta," continuing to rise, exemplified by Industrial and Commercial Bank of China's stock price closing at 8.08 (+2.93%) and a monthly increase of over 14% [1] - Major state-owned banks' H-shares have seen significant increases over the past six months, with gains ranging from 20% to 36%, and current dividend yields between 4.6% and 5.7% [2] - The KBW Bank Index tracking U.S. bank stocks rose by 9.56% in the first half of the year, while the European Stoxx 600 Bank Index increased by 29% [2] Group 2: Policy and Economic Environment - Recent policies focus on expanding domestic demand, stabilizing real estate, addressing "involution," strengthening technology, and stabilizing foreign investment [1] - The Central Economic Committee's meeting emphasized the need to regulate low-price disorderly competition among enterprises [1] - The Ministry of Finance's notification on July 11 reinforced the structural benefits for high-dividend stocks like bank shares [2] Group 3: Investment Trends - There is a growing preference among investors for low-volatility, high-dividend assets, as evidenced by the performance of the CSI 300 Low Volatility Dividend Index, which focuses on sectors like banking and telecommunications [2] - The shift towards long-term investment strategies is evident, with pension and insurance funds showing increased interest in bank stocks due to their high yields and low volatility [3] Group 4: Structural Transformation - China is undergoing a structural transformation aimed at high-quality development, focusing on expanding domestic demand and addressing "involution" through coordinated supply and demand efforts [6] - The current "involution" competition is primarily affecting emerging industries concentrated in private enterprises, with a need for effective regulation to prevent harmful competition [8]
为保“中国方案”稳定落地 大众中国CEO贝瑞德续约三年
Jing Ji Guan Cha Bao· 2025-07-14 03:48
Group 1 - Volkswagen Group's supervisory board has extended the contract of Berndt, the head of China operations, for another three years until summer 2028, emphasizing the importance of stable management for achieving strategic goals in the Chinese market [1][5] - Berndt's initial three-year term is set to end on July 30, and he has been pivotal in advancing product development and implementing the "In China, For China" strategy, which involves significant investments [1][2] - The past three years have been defined as a critical transition period for Volkswagen in China, focusing on the localization of electric vehicle development and integration into the local ecosystem, supported by a total investment of 50 billion yuan [3] Group 2 - Volkswagen's transformation investments are expected to peak in 2024, with a "monetization period" approaching, as the company prepares to deliver its first locally developed electric smart vehicles starting in the second half of 2025 [4] - The company plans to launch over 20 new smart connected vehicle models in China by 2026, covering various powertrains, to increase its market share in the Chinese electric vehicle sector [4] - Despite the ongoing transformation, there are concerns regarding the declining investment returns from joint ventures in China, with expected earnings of 1.7 billion euros in 2024, a 33.5% year-on-year decrease [4][5] Group 3 - The renewal of Berndt's contract reflects the supervisory board's recognition of the rapid progress in China's strategy and signals strong support for the ongoing transformation and local integration [5] - Other key members of the Volkswagen China board have undergone changes, indicating a shift in management as the company prepares for the next three years of competition in the electric vehicle market [5]
今日看点|国新办将举行新闻发布会,介绍2025年上半年金融统计数据情况
Jing Ji Guan Cha Bao· 2025-07-14 01:21
Group 1 - The National New Office will hold two press conferences on July 14, focusing on the financial statistics for the first half of 2025 and import-export data [1] - The 12th World Chemical Engineering Conference and the 21st Asia-Pacific Chemical Alliance Conference will take place from July 14 to 18, addressing challenges in chemical engineering and future talent education [2] Group 2 - On July 14, a total of 14 companies will have their restricted shares unlocked, with a total unlock volume of 1.008 billion shares, amounting to a market value of 14.507 billion yuan [3] - Six companies will have over 10 million shares unlocked, with Zhaoxin Co., Beixin Road and Bridge, and Tianyue Advanced leading in unlock volume [3] - The companies with the highest unlock market value include Tianyue Advanced, Xinghui Huan Material, and Huasheng Lithium Battery, with values of 7.487 billion yuan, 2.753 billion yuan, and 1.826 billion yuan respectively [3] Group 3 - Four companies disclosed stock repurchase progress on July 14, with one company reporting ongoing repurchase and three completing their repurchase plans [4] - The highest repurchase amount reported was 20.0616 million yuan by Cambrian [4] - Companies that completed repurchases include Wanhua Chemical, Qingyuan Co., and Mercury Home Textiles, with repurchase amounts of 500 million yuan, 4.2422 million yuan, and 291,900 yuan respectively [4] Group 4 - A total of 106.5 billion yuan in 7-day reverse repos will mature today, following a central bank operation on July 7 with an interest rate of 1.40% [5] Group 5 - Economic data such as India's June CPI year-on-year and Japan's May production capacity index will be released [6]
心理观察|当“名校光环”撞上就业寒冬:父母正在经历怎样的心理转身
Jing Ji Guan Cha Bao· 2025-07-13 23:48
Core Insights - The article discusses the psychological shift among parents of graduates from prestigious universities in China as they confront the harsh realities of the job market, leading to a reevaluation of their beliefs about education and employment [1][2][7]. Group 1: Employment Market Dynamics - The number of college graduates in China is projected to reach 12.22 million by 2025, creating intense competition in the job market [2]. - Many high-achieving graduates from top universities are struggling to secure ideal jobs, with some employment rates for 985 universities dropping below 90% [2]. - For instance, during a recruitment drive by China National Nuclear Corporation, 1,730 positions attracted 1.2 million applications, averaging 691 applicants per position [2]. Group 2: Parental Psychological Transition - Parents are experiencing a cognitive dissonance as their long-held belief that "prestigious schools guarantee good jobs" clashes with the current job market realities [2][3]. - This transition involves a shift from a controlling mindset to one of companionship, where parents recognize that they cannot dictate their children's career paths [3][4]. - Parents are beginning to prioritize their children's mental health over societal perceptions of success, acknowledging that happiness in a job is more important than traditional metrics of success [3][4]. Group 3: Redefining Success - The rise of social media has exposed parents to diverse career paths, prompting them to reconsider what constitutes a "good job" [4]. - Parents are increasingly accepting that success can take many forms, moving away from the notion that their children must work in large corporations to be deemed successful [4][7]. Group 4: Psychological Challenges - Parents face difficulties in letting go of their expectations due to the significant investments made in their children's education, leading to feelings of frustration when outcomes do not meet expectations [5]. - Social comparison pressures from peers and relatives exacerbate parental anxiety regarding their children's job prospects [5]. - The generational gap in understanding the current job market creates conflicts, as parents often rely on outdated experiences to guide their children [5]. Group 5: Support Strategies for Parents - Parents are encouraged to shift their focus from outcome-based assessments to process-oriented support, emphasizing skill development and personal growth during the job search [6]. - It is suggested that parents explore a variety of career options with their children, fostering open discussions about potential paths rather than imposing their own ideals [6]. - Emotional support is crucial, with parents advised to listen and empathize with their children's feelings rather than offering prescriptive solutions [6].
岚图五年梦想共创,“听劝”央企向新进化
Jing Ji Guan Cha Bao· 2025-07-13 15:51
Core Insights - The core message of the articles emphasizes the successful launch of the Lantu FREE+ and its user-centric approach, which has led to significant pre-order numbers and market recognition [1][3][4]. Group 1: Product Launch and Features - The Lantu FREE+ was officially launched after four years of development, featuring over 1,366 upgrades, with 82 of them being class-leading [2]. - The vehicle incorporates advanced technologies such as Huawei's QianKun intelligent driving system and the Hongmeng cockpit, enhancing the smart driving experience [2]. - The FREE+ offers luxurious features including a 7L cooling and heating box, a 22-speaker sound system, and a unique suspension system, aiming to redefine the driving experience in its segment [3][4]. Group 2: Market Performance and User Engagement - Since its pre-sale began on June 24, the Lantu FREE+ has received over 35,000 orders in just 18 days, indicating strong market demand [3]. - Lantu has achieved a significant milestone by becoming the first central state-owned enterprise to reach 200,000 vehicle deliveries, showcasing its growth and user acceptance [4][8]. - The company has established a unique user engagement strategy through events like the "User Night," fostering a strong community and brand loyalty among its customers [5][6]. Group 3: Corporate Strategy and Innovation - Lantu has adopted a flat management structure to enhance responsiveness to market changes and user needs, facilitating quicker product adjustments [7]. - The company has implemented a "self-operated + partner" business model, allowing it to swiftly adapt to user demands and market dynamics [7]. - Lantu's strategic plan includes launching multiple vehicle categories within a set timeframe, achieving impressive sales figures, including a 10053 unit sales in June, marking an 83% year-on-year increase [7][8].
经观季度调查 |2025年二季度经济学人问卷调查: 兼顾“稳增长”与“防风险” 地方财税和汇率稳定是关键
Jing Ji Guan Cha Bao· 2025-07-13 15:51
Economic Growth and Stability - The core focus is on balancing "stabilizing growth" and "preventing risks" in the Chinese economy amid external demand shocks and real estate market adjustments [1][3][18] - 73% of economists predict that the GDP growth rate for Q2 2025 will be between 5.0% and 5.2%, while 60% believe the annual growth rate can reach 5.0% to 5.3% [1][3][4] Debt Concerns - Local government debt is identified as the most pressing issue, with 44% of respondents highlighting it, followed by private enterprises (28%) and household debt (19%) [1][5][18] - The need for a long-term mechanism to prevent risks in key areas such as real estate and finance is emphasized [17][18] Real Estate Market - The real estate market is showing signs of stabilization, with various strategies proposed to reinforce policy effects, including improving economic expectations (28%) and increasing household income (25%) [1][7][18] - The People's Bank of China has lowered policy rates to support the housing market, indicating ongoing efforts to stabilize real estate [7][9] Currency Stability - 90% of economists believe the USD to RMB exchange rate will fluctuate between 7.1 and 7.5, with a focus on maintaining stability to support cross-border capital flow and exports [9][10] - The potential for RMB appreciation exists if the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts exceed expectations, which could impact exports negatively [9][10] Fiscal and Monetary Policy - Fiscal policy has played a significant role in stabilizing growth, with measures such as accelerated special bond issuance and targeted spending in key areas [14][15][18] - Monetary policy is shifting towards "moderate easing," with expectations for continued support through rate cuts and structural tools to enhance financial support for SMEs and green projects [15][16][18] Consumer Behavior and Investment Focus - Income is the primary factor influencing consumer spending, accounting for 75%, while investment is concentrated in large infrastructure (40%) and technology (37%) [5][18] - The need for direct stimulus to enhance consumer confidence is highlighted, alongside the importance of addressing structural issues in the economy [16][17][18]
梁腾:狂人日记
Jing Ji Guan Cha Bao· 2025-07-13 14:18
Core Viewpoint - The exhibition "Monologue of the Awakened: Deconstruction and Rebirth" is a critical and avant-garde art event that reinterprets societal norms through artistic expression, echoing the themes of Lu Xun's classic work "A Madman's Diary" [1] Group 1: Exhibition Overview - The exhibition will take place from June 14 to July 30 at the K可以 Gallery in Hefei, showcasing over twenty significant works by young artist Chen Mo, created between 2023 and 2025 [3] - The artworks span various media, including painting, sculpture, and video installations, each representing a profound exploration of humanity, power, and freedom [1][2] Group 2: Artistic Themes and Audience Engagement - Some pieces deconstruct everyday objects to reveal hidden power dynamics, while others simulate the psychological process of individual alienation within societal constraints through surreal scenes [2] - An interactive installation area invites viewers to engage in actions that "break the norms," extending the critique of art into real-life experiences [2]
播客经济火热,主播们的职业转型收效几何?
Jing Ji Guan Cha Bao· 2025-07-13 10:17
Core Insights - The rise of podcasting as a new career path for many professionals, exemplified by Huang Xiao's transition from product manager to full-time podcaster [1][2] - The podcast economy is growing rapidly, with significant market potential in China, projected to reach 740 billion yuan by 2029 [3][4] - The podcasting industry in China is still in its developmental phase compared to the mature markets in the U.S., with a growing number of content creators and listeners [4][6] Industry Growth - The audio economy is becoming increasingly popular, with 220 million listeners in China by the end of 2023, indicating that at least 20% of internet users are engaging with podcasts [3][4] - The commercial value of podcasts is being realized through various monetization strategies, including paid subscriptions, advertising, and brand collaborations [10][11] Monetization Strategies - The primary revenue sources for podcasters include paid content (50-60%), commercial partnerships (30-40%), and private domain sales (around 10%) [11] - Platforms like Ximalaya are enhancing monetization opportunities for podcasters through marketing solutions and content distribution support [10][12] Professional Transition - Many individuals are viewing podcasting as a viable career transition, driven by the industry's growth potential and the need for high-quality content to attract and retain listeners [6][7] - The podcasting landscape is perceived as less competitive than video platforms, providing a better chance for new entrants to succeed [7][8] Community Engagement - Podcasters are building strong connections with their audiences, often likening their relationships to friendships, which fosters loyalty and engagement [9] - The importance of patience and continuous improvement in content quality is emphasized for long-term success in podcasting [8][9] Future Opportunities - Collaborative initiatives, such as the "New Podcast Co-Creation Camp," are exploring innovative ways to integrate podcasts with local culture and community engagement [12] - The acquisition of Ximalaya by Tencent Music is expected to enhance the platform's capabilities in content creation and marketing, further unlocking the commercial potential of podcasts [13]