Core Insights - The recent tariff exemption agreement reached on October 26 has benefited export products from Malaysia, Thailand, and Vietnam, reducing overall tariff risks to their GDPs [1] - Despite the exemptions, Vietnam's economic risk exposure remains high, attributed to its export-oriented economy and heavy reliance on the U.S. market [1] Group 1: Tariff Exemption Agreement - The agreement allows Malaysia, Thailand, Vietnam, and Cambodia to provide favorable market access for U.S. goods, reducing tariffs on American products and facilitating commercial purchases, including LNG and aircraft [1] - Malaysia is identified as the primary beneficiary, with 63% of its export products receiving exemptions, while Thailand and Vietnam have 43% and 44% of their exports exempted, respectively [1] Group 2: Economic Risk Exposure - Vietnam's risk exposure in U.S. exports remains at 16.1% of its GDP, indicating significant vulnerability despite the tariff exemptions [1] - In contrast, Malaysia and Thailand's direct risk exposure has decreased to single digits, while Singapore and Indonesia, which did not receive the exemptions, maintain low risk exposure [2] Group 3: Potential Risks and Mitigation Strategies - The new agreement may lead to increased imports of U.S. goods, potentially impacting local industries and weakening the current account balance [2] - The report suggests that ASEAN countries are diversifying trade to mitigate adverse effects, including pursuing new trade agreements like the EUFTA and implementing domestic growth strategies [2]

Group 1 - UK manufacturing in October experienced its strongest month in a year, primarily due to Jaguar Land Rover's recovery from a cyberattack, leading to a "one-time rebound" in production. The manufacturing PMI output index returned to growth, driven by intermediate products, reflecting supply chain improvements from Jaguar Land Rover's gradual production restart. However, domestic and international demand remains weak, with companies relying on previous order backlogs to maintain operations [1][1][1] - Goldman Sachs analysts indicated that the current US government shutdown could have a record-breaking impact on the economy. This shutdown may last longer than the 35-day partial shutdown from 2018-2019 and is broader in scope, potentially affecting federal procurement and investment significantly, with spillover effects on the private sector. If the shutdown lasts about six weeks, it could reduce the annualized quarterly growth rate for Q4 2025 by 1.15 percentage points, with a further decline of 1.3 percentage points in Q1 2026 due to spillover effects from federal procurement and investment [1][1][1] Group 2 - HSBC Global Investment Research stated that the US dollar may bottom out in early 2026 due to anticipated further rate cuts by the Federal Reserve and uncertainty regarding the next chairperson. This week, dollar shorts will face new challenges as multiple Federal Reserve officials' speeches and US economic activity indicators will be market focal points. The sensitivity of the dollar may increase further [2][2][2] - Morgan Stanley MUFG strategists remain bullish on the mid-section of the Japanese government bond yield curve, believing that changes in the US economic landscape may lead to a downward repricing of the Bank of Japan's terminal rate. Despite some alleviation of fiscal issues under the new government, they remain cautious about long-term bonds, noting that Japan's top ten life insurance companies' investment plans for the second half of FY2025 suggest they are unlikely to be a stable demand source for ultra-long Japanese government bonds [2][2][2] Group 3 - The Indian rupee is nearing a record low, with recent interventions by the central bank proving limited in effectiveness. The rupee has depreciated for three consecutive days against the dollar, trading at 88.7988. Despite the Reserve Bank of India's recent unexpected sale of large amounts of dollars to stabilize the market, the rupee has failed to maintain its gains. Traders noted that the central bank has been selling dollars in smaller amounts to prevent the rupee from breaching the historical low of 88.8050 [3][3][3] - Switzerland's annual inflation rate unexpectedly dropped to 0.1% in October, down from 0.2% in September. Analysts suggest that the Swiss National Bank may not be influenced by this result, as the bank expects inflation to rise in the coming months. Factors such as declining rental inflation and anticipated electricity price reductions may lead to a further drop in inflation to -0.3% by February next year. However, the Swiss National Bank has indicated that it will only consider lowering key interest rates below 0% if mid-term inflation falls below zero [4][4][4]

亚星化学表示，截至目前，本次交易正处于筹划阶段，交易各方尚未签署正式的交易协议，具体交易方 案仍在商讨论证中，尚存在不确定性。 公开资料显示，天一化学成立于2002年，位于潍坊滨海经济开发区，是一家国家级高新技术企业和专精 特新"小巨人"企业，经营范围涵盖化工产品生产（不含许可类化工产品）、化工产品销售（不含许可类 化工产品）、肥料销售等。 新华财经北京11月3日电（王媛媛）亚星化学11月3日晚间公告称，公司正在筹划以发行股份及支付现金 的方式购买山东天一化学股份有限公司控制权，或同步收购其他股东所持标的公司股份。本次交易预计 构成重大资产重组。公司股票自2025年11月4日开市起停牌，预计停牌时间不超过10个交易日。 亚星化学于2001年3月在上交所挂牌，主营业务涉及烧碱、CPE等化工产品的研发、生产与销售。公司 10月30日发布2025年三季报显示，亚星化学前三季实现营业收入6.41亿元，同比下滑2.53%；归母净利 润-1.44亿元；扣非归母净利润-1.44亿元。 二级市场上，11月3日，亚星化学上涨4.58%，收于8.9元／股，总市值34.51亿元。 （文章来源：新华财经） ...

·两部门：到2030年构建覆盖全面、技术先进的节水装备体系 ·中国对瑞典免签延长对法国等免签至2026年底恢复赴加拿大团队游 ·据商务部消息，2025年10月31日至11月1日，商务部安全与管制局江前良局长与欧委会贸易总司雷东内 副总司长在布鲁塞尔举行"升级版"中欧出口管制对话磋商。双方就出口管制领域彼此关切进行深入、富 有建设性的沟通。双方同意继续保持沟通交流，促进中欧产业链供应链稳定与畅通。 【重点关注】 ·国家移民管理局推出支持扩大开放服务高质量发展10项创新举措 【国内要闻】 ·国家移民管理局3日发布公告，决定实施支持扩大开放服务高质量发展10项创新举措，6项措施自2025 年11月5日起实施——扩大往来港澳人才签注政策试点实施范围；实施大陆居民申办往来台湾探亲签 注"全国通办"；在部分与港澳台通航通行口岸推广应用智能通关；支持促进河套深港科技创新合作区深 圳园区生产要素高效跨境流动；扩大24小时直接过境免办查验手续口岸范围；增加广东省5个口岸为240 小时过境免签政策入境口岸。 ·工业和信息化部、水利部近日联合发布《节水装备高质量发展实施方案（2025—2030年）》，着力巩 固提升节水装备产业链竞 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is the signing of 13 new display industry cooperation projects in Chengdu, with a total investment of 15.74 billion yuan, covering various segments of the display industry chain [1][2] - The signed projects include significant initiatives such as the display and semiconductor target material R&D and manufacturing base, and the iQIYI film and television project, which aims to enhance regional industrial development through content creation [1] - The event attracted over 200 influential enterprises from the display industry, covering upstream and downstream sectors, and focusing on major global display technology innovations [1] Group 2 - Sichuan has successfully attracted and nurtured leading enterprises like BOE and Chengxin Optoelectronics, gathering over 150 companies in the display industry chain [2] - The completeness of the new display industry chain in Sichuan exceeds 70%, with an industry matching rate of over 45% [2] - As of the first half of 2025, there are 47 projects in the new display industry in Sichuan with investments exceeding 100 million yuan, representing a nearly 50% year-on-year increase [2]

（文章来源：新华财经） 就业方面，制造业岗位数量自2024年5月以来首次出现下降。报告指出，这一变化主要受自愿离职、企 业重组举措以及临时员工减少的共同影响。 新华财经北京11月3日电荷兰10月制造业采购经理人指数（PMI）录得51.8，较9月的53.7显著回落，创 下自2024年6月以来的最低水平。尽管指数仍高于50荣枯线，表明制造业继续处于扩张区间，但扩张速 度明显放缓。 尽管扩张动能减弱，荷兰制造商对未来十二个月的业务前景仍持乐观态度。不过，整体信心水平仍低于 该PMI系列的历史平均水平。 数据显示，新订单仍是推动制造业活动的主要动力。欧洲和亚太地区客户需求增加，带动出口需求重新 上升。制造业产出亦延续了自2024年3月以来的连续增长态势。 成本端压力有所显现。受食品、能源和原材料价格上涨推动，投入成本小幅上升。然而，出厂价格通胀 却进一步放缓，降至一年来的最低水平，反映企业向下游传导成本的能力受限。 ...

新华财经上海11月3日电据"网信上海"微信公众号消息，截至10月31日，上海市新增8款已完成登记的生 成式人工智能服务，累计已完成127款生成式人工智能服务登记。 8款已完成登记的生成式人工智能服务中，中经社行业洞察AI助手在列。 | 序号 | 应用/功能 | 登记单位 | 上线编号 | 登记时间 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 疫苗千问 | 上海市疾病预防控制中心 | Shanghai-YiMiaoQianWen | 2025/10/31 | | | | (上海市预防医学科学院) | -20251031S0120 | | | 2 | Cami 伴驾精灵 | 上海复通数字科技有限公司 | Shanghai-CamiBanJiaJingLing -20251031S0121 | 2025/10/31 | | 3 | 中经社行业洞察 | 中经社(上海)经济信息 | Shanghai-ZhongJingSheHangYeDong | 2025/10/31 | | | AI 助手 | 有限公司 | ChaAIZhuShou-20251031S0122 | | | 4 | 问 ...

（文章来源：新华财经） 新华财经北京11月3日电美联储理事米兰表示，在评估货币政策时，过分强调股市和企业信贷市场的强 势是不妥的。他认为，目前的货币政策仍过于紧缩，并增加了经济下行的风险。米兰在接受采访时表 示："金融市场受很多因素驱动，并不仅仅是货币政策。"他用此解释为何上周在对一季度降息进行投票 时，他反对降息25BP，而倾向于降息50BP。他指出，在利率敏感的行业如住房市场表现不佳、部分私 人信贷市场出现压力的情况下，股价上涨、企业信贷利差收窄等因素"并不一定能告诉你货币政策的立 场如何"。 ...

Core Insights - Turkey's Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 32.87% year-on-year in October, a decrease from 33.29% in September, marking the lowest level since November 2021 [1] - The manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) fell to 46.5 in October, indicating a continued contraction for the 19th consecutive month [1][2] Inflation and Price Changes - Food and non-alcoholic beverage prices increased by 34.87% - Housing prices rose by 50.96% - Clothing and footwear prices increased by 7.98% - Household equipment prices rose by 28.9% - Healthcare prices increased by 32.06% - Communication prices rose by 19.35% - Education prices surged by 65.69% - Prices in hotels, cafes, and restaurants increased by 33.78% - Miscellaneous goods and services prices rose by 30.13% - Transportation prices increased by 27.33% - Alcoholic beverages and tobacco prices rose by 27.56% - Cultural and entertainment prices increased by 25.32% [1] Economic Activity and Monetary Policy - Output is declining at a strong pace due to weak demand and slowing new orders, with both domestic and export markets showing low performance [2] - The Central Bank of Turkey lowered the benchmark interest rate by 100 basis points to 39.5% on October 23, marking the third rate cut since July [2] - The market anticipates that the policy rate will decrease to 37.5% by the end of 2025 [2]

（文章来源：新华财经） 北美地区已经开始实行冬令时，美国和加拿大金融市场交易时间和经济数据公布时间将较夏令时延后一 小时。金银、美油将于北京时间07:00开盘，次日06:00收盘，美股将于北京时间22:30开盘，次日05:30 收盘。 ...