Core Viewpoint - The liquidity tightening in the market has eased under the central bank's support, leading to a stronger bond market despite weakness in commodity and equity markets, with yields generally declining by about 2 basis points [1]. Market Overview - From January 26 to January 30, 2026, the bond market saw a mixed performance with the yield curve showing a downward trend for most maturities, while the ultra-long end experienced upward pressure due to supply concerns [1][4]. - The 10-year government bond yield decreased by 2 basis points over the week, closing at 1.81% [4]. Bond Yield Changes - The changes in the China government bond yields from January 23 to January 30, 2026, were as follows: - 1-year: +1.8 BP - 2-year: -1.94 BP - 3-year: -2.09 BP - 5-year: -2.04 BP - 7-year: -1.82 BP - 10-year: -1.86 BP - 30-year: +0.19 BP - 50-year: +1.5 BP [2][3]. Primary Market Activity - A total of 95 bonds were issued last week, amounting to 624.275 billion yuan, with no government bonds issued [8]. - Local government bonds saw a significant increase in issuance, totaling 863.35 billion yuan in January, representing a year-on-year growth of 54.84% and 124.57% compared to the same period in 2024 [9]. International Market Insights - The U.S. bond market showed a mixed performance, with the Federal Reserve maintaining interest rates as expected, while the PPI data exceeded expectations, leading to a steepening of the yield curve [10][11]. - The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield rose by 2 basis points to 4.25%, while the 30-year yield increased by 5 basis points to 4.88% [11]. Economic Indicators - The manufacturing PMI for January was reported at 49.3%, indicating a decline, with production indices showing mixed results across different sectors [16]. - The total profit of industrial enterprises in December 2025 increased by 5.3% year-on-year, marking a significant recovery from previous months [16]. Analyst Perspectives - Analysts suggest that the bond market is currently in a favorable micro-structural state, with liquidity remaining stable and a potential rebound window still open [18]. - The "Walsh era" at the Federal Reserve may focus more on forward-looking decisions, potentially impacting the dollar's strength and overall market dynamics [20].

Core Insights - The electronic information manufacturing industry in China is experiencing rapid production growth, stable export performance, and improving profitability, despite a decline in investment [1][2]. Group 1: Production and Growth - In 2025, the added value of the electronic information manufacturing industry above designated size increased by 10.6% year-on-year, outpacing the growth rates of the overall industrial sector and high-tech manufacturing by 4.7 and 1.2 percentage points, respectively [1]. - In December 2025, the added value of the electronic information manufacturing industry grew by 11.8% year-on-year [1]. - Major products saw varied production trends: mobile phone production reached 1.54 billion units, down 5.8% year-on-year, with smart phones at 1.27 billion units, down 0.9%; microcomputer equipment production was 332 million units, down 2.9%; integrated circuit production was 484.3 billion units, up 10.9% [1]. Group 2: Export Performance - In 2025, the total export delivery value of the electronic information manufacturing industry remained flat year-on-year, while in December, it grew by 1.2% year-on-year [1]. - Notable export figures include 133 million notebook computers, down 7.1% year-on-year; 751 million mobile phones, down 7.7%; and 349.5 billion integrated circuits, which saw a significant increase of 17.4% year-on-year [1]. Group 3: Financial Performance - The electronic information manufacturing industry achieved operating revenue of 17.4 trillion yuan in 2025, a year-on-year increase of 7.4%, while operating costs rose by 6.9% to 15.1 trillion yuan [2]. - The total profit reached 750.9 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 19.5%, with an operating profit margin of 4.3%, up by 0.2 percentage points compared to January-November [2]. Group 4: Investment Trends - Fixed asset investment in the electronic information manufacturing industry declined by 3.8% year-on-year, which is 0.6 percentage points lower than the decline observed in January-November, and 6.4 percentage points lower than the growth rate of industrial investment during the same period [2].

图为截至1月30日三大人民币汇率指数。来源：中国外汇交易中心 国际方面：特朗普正式提名前美联储理事凯文·沃什接替鲍威尔出任下任美联储主席。该提名需参议院批准，但民主党领袖舒默与共 和党参议员蒂利斯已明确表示，除非撤销对鲍威尔的调查，否则将联手阻止沃什上任。 此外，美联储将基准利率维持在3.50%-3.75%不变，结束自去年9月以来的连续三次降息。尽管符合市场预期，但政策声明透露出内 部意见分化：理事米兰和沃勒投下反对票，主张降息25个基点。 新华财经北京2月2日电中国外汇交易中心最新计算的2026年1月30日CFETS人民币汇率指数为96.99，按周跌1.25%；BIS货币篮子人民 币汇率指数报104.06，按周跌1.25%；SDR货币篮子人民币汇率指数报92.52，按周跌0.77%。 中国人民银行副行长邹澜在第19届亚洲金融论坛上表示，中国人民银行持续推进内地与香港金融市场互联互通机制，全面覆盖债 券、股票、货币衍生品、黄金等多个子市场，有效支持全球投资者通过香港开展人民币投融资活动。邹澜表示，香港已成为全球最 大、最具影响力的人民币离岸业务枢纽。 近日，中国人民银行与斯里兰卡央行签署人民币清算安排合作备忘 ...

该摘要释放了一个信号，即植田和男领导的委员会可能以快于市场普遍预期的速度上调基准利率（目前 市场预期自去年12月加息后，大约每半年加息一次）。日元汇率似乎是一个关键因素，摘要中"日元贬 值"和"外汇"出现的次数较上次会议翻了一番。 （文章来源：新华财经） 新华财经北京2月2日电日本央行1月政策会议的意见摘要显示，随着当局密切监测日元疲软对通胀的影 响，内部对于及时加息必要性的认识正在增强。 根据1月23日结束的为期两天的政策会议摘要，九位委员会成员中有一位表示："鉴于应对物价上涨是日 本的当务之急，央行不应花费过多时间审视调高政策利率的影响，而应在不失时机的情况下采取下一步 行动，即加息。" ...

马达加斯加矿业和战略资源部长卡尔·安德里安帕拉尼（Carl Andriamparany）30日晚在国家电视台发表 讲话中宣布，解除该国已持续16年的采矿许可证发放暂停令。 马达加斯加拥有较为丰富的矿产资源，如镍、钴、石墨等。根据2025年底发布的关于马达加斯加《采掘 业透明度行动计划》（Extractive Industries Transparency Initiative）最新报告，2023年，马达加斯加共有 1650份采矿许可证申请等待相关部门审批。 资讯编辑：王芳琴 021-66896877 资讯监督：乐卫扬 021-26093827 资讯投诉：陈跃进 021-26093100 免责声明：Mysteel发布的原创及转载内容，仅供客户参考，不作为决策建议。原创内容版权归Mysteel所有，转载需取得Mysteel书面授 权，且Mysteel保留对任何侵权行为和有悖原创内容原意的引用行为进行追究的权利。转载内容来源于网络，目的在于传递更多信息，方 便学习与交流，并不代表Mysteel赞同其观点及对其真实性、完整性负责。 安德里安帕拉尼表示，此举旨在促进国家经济和社会发展，符合政府提升透明度、加强自然资源有 ...

Summary of Key Points Core Viewpoint - The latest data from Steel Silver E-commerce indicates a significant increase in steel inventory across 38 cities in China, with a total inventory of 7.3978 million tons as of February 2, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 290,600 tons, or 4.09% [1]. Inventory Breakdown - The total inventory of construction steel reached 3.3745 million tons, which is an increase of 213,700 tons, or 6.76% compared to the previous week, covering 30 cities and 79 warehouses [1]. - Hot-rolled coil inventory totaled 2.1083 million tons, with a week-on-week increase of 56,300 tons, or 2.74%, across 15 cities and 47 warehouses [1]. - Medium and heavy plate inventory stood at 730,000 tons, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 23,200 tons, or 3.28%, from 9 cities and 14 warehouses [1]. - Cold-rolled and coated inventory decreased to 1.1850 million tons, with a slight reduction of 2,600 tons, or 0.22%, covering 5 cities and 14 warehouses [1].

Core Viewpoint - The National Taxation Administration of China has announced adjustments to the export tax rebate management regulations to enhance the efficiency and convenience of export tax rebate applications [1] Group 1: Policy Adjustments - The announcement consolidates various export tax rebate management regulations into a unified management approach, clarifying the processes for filing, handling, and service management related to export tax rebates [1] - The adjustments aim to standardize export tax rebate management, making it easier for taxpayers to understand and comply with the regulations [1] Group 2: Process Optimization - The export tax rebate process has been optimized, leveraging big data and new technologies to facilitate efficient handling of export tax rebates for taxpayers [1] - The management requirements for export tax rebate business matters have been partially optimized to ensure smooth implementation and precise execution of the new policies [1] Group 3: Impact on Businesses - For the majority of enterprises, the implementation of the announcement is not expected to significantly alter their existing filing habits, allowing for a seamless transition in handling most export tax rebate business [1]

【重点关注】 ·国办印发工作方案加快培育服务消费新增长点 ·中英签署多项经贸成果文件进一步深化中英经贸关系 ·1月份我国制造业PMI为49.3% 农副食品加工、铁路船舶航空航天设备等行业产需释放较快 ·民政部印发《关于进一步推进民政科技创新的指导意见》，其中提出，到2030年，民政科技创新体制 机制不断健全，科技投入持续增加，创新水平和效能明显提高，突破一批关键核心技术，形成一批标志 性科技成果，高端装备和产品国产化率明显提升，涌现一批民政科技创新领军人才、创新团队和科技型 企业，民政科技创新和产业创新不断融合，为服务经济社会发展、增进民生福祉提供有力保障。 ·我国将实施稳岗扩容提质行动，推出重点行业就业支持举措，出台应对人工智能影响促就业文件。强 化重点群体就业支持，印发高校毕业生等青年就业文件，出台统筹城乡就业体系意见，建立常态化防止 返贫致贫就业帮扶机制。 ·国家税务总局制发了《关于起征点标准等增值税征管事项的公告》，就起征点标准判定、税收优惠政 策适用等增值税征管事项作了进一步明确，细化操作要求，推动增值税法及其实施条例落实落地。 ·商务部：以服务业为重点扩大市场准入和开放领域有序扩大电信、医疗、教育 ...

Core Viewpoint - The steel industry is experiencing a slowdown in contraction, with the PMI for January 2026 at 49.9%, indicating a slight recovery but still below the critical 50% threshold [1][3]. Demand and Supply - Demand remains weak due to seasonal factors, including low temperatures and the upcoming Spring Festival, which restricts construction activities [3][4]. - Some infrastructure projects are nearing completion, contributing to a slight increase in steel demand, while export orders are under pressure due to policy changes and weak overseas demand [4][14]. - The new orders index rose to 50.2%, indicating a return to expansion after five months, although overall demand remains subdued [4][14]. Production and Inventory - Steel production is stabilizing, with the production index rising to 48.4%, ending a two-month decline, and average daily crude steel production increasing by 21.6% compared to the previous month [8][12]. - Finished product inventory is accumulating, with the inventory index at 52.2%, indicating a return to expansion after three months [8][12]. Price Trends - Steel prices showed a trend of rising and then falling, with the Shanghai rebar price index peaking at 3,234 CNY/ton before declining to 3,196 CNY/ton by the end of January [10][12]. - Raw material procurement activities have increased, with the procurement index at 57.9%, marking a significant rise and indicating stronger purchasing by steel mills [12][14]. Future Outlook - In February 2026, steel demand is expected to remain weak due to the seasonal effects of the Spring Festival, with significant reductions in construction activities and a slow recovery in the real estate sector [14][15]. - Steel production is likely to decline again as mills may reduce output in response to lower demand and ongoing environmental regulations [15].

马达加斯加拥有较为丰富的矿产资源，如镍、钴、石墨等。根据2025年底发布的关于马达加斯加《采掘 业透明度行动计划》（Extractive Industries Transparency Initiative）最新报告，2023年，马达加斯加共有 1650份采矿许可证申请等待相关部门审批。 安德里安帕拉尼表示，此举旨在促进国家经济和社会发展，符合政府提升透明度、加强自然资源有效治 理和采矿许可证管理的意愿。长期停发许可证在一定程度上导致了非法采矿活动的增加。 （文章来源：新华财经） 新华财经塔那那利佛1月31日电（记者陈绍华）马达加斯加矿业和战略资源部长卡尔·安德里安帕拉尼 （Carl Andriamparany）30日晚在国家电视台发表讲话中宣布，解除该国已持续16年的采矿许可证发放 暂停令。 据当地媒体报道，马达加斯加部长会议（Conseil des ministres）27日批准了恢复发放采矿许可证的决 定。采矿许可发放将设三种方式：一是为小规模采矿者提供许可，二是对工业项目实行竞争性招标，三 是通过矿业执法队（la brigade minière）进行处理。 然而，安德里安帕拉尼指出，金矿不在此次解禁范 ...