Core Viewpoint - The European chemical industry is expected to see a decline in production by 2025, contrary to previous expectations of a 0.5% growth, with 2024 projected to grow by 2.4% [1] Industry Outlook - The recovery prospects for the industry remain unclear, and a weak global economic environment will limit demand growth [1] - European chemical companies face high risks due to trade disruptions, including U.S. tariffs [1] Production and Capacity Utilization - The chemical production capacity utilization rate is expected to decline further to 74.6% in Q3, down from 75.6% in Q2 [1] - The competitiveness of the European chemical industry remains significantly below pre-pandemic levels, particularly for basic chemicals and petrochemical products [1] Sales and Trade - In the first half of 2025, European chemical production is projected to decrease by 2.4% year-on-year, which is 10% lower than pre-pandemic levels [1] - Due to persistent weak demand and stable prices, sales revenue is expected to decline by 1.8% year-on-year [1] - The European chemical industry needs strong domestic demand for significant growth, but no positive shifts in domestic demand have been observed so far [1] - In the first half of 2025, chemical exports increased by 0.5% year-on-year, while imports rose by 5.4%, resulting in a trade surplus of €20.1 billion, down 17% year-on-year [1]

Group 1 - The European petrochemical industry has experienced an unprecedented wave of olefin capacity reductions over the past 18 months, with seven steam cracker plants permanently closed or planned to be shut down by the end of 2027, significantly altering the regional supply landscape [1] - The closed or planned cracker plants have a combined ethylene capacity of approximately 4.5 million tons per year, along with propylene capacity of 2.3 million tons and butadiene capacity of 430,000 tons [1] - The number of existing ethylene plants in Europe is expected to fall below 50, with projections indicating a decrease to 48 plants by 2026 and further to 46 by 2029, compared to 60 plants in 2015 with a total design capacity exceeding 26 million tons per year [1] Group 2 - Major companies like Shell and SABIC are planning to reassess and optimize their European asset portfolios, which include four cracker plants in the Netherlands, Germany, and the UK with a total ethylene capacity of 2.6 million tons per year [2] - BP is seeking buyers for its integrated refining and petrochemical assets in Gelsenkirchen, Germany, while Dow has announced the permanent closure of its 510,000 tons per year mixed feed cracker in Germany by Q4 2027 [2] - The closures are a response to ongoing industry challenges, with Shell's CEO indicating a focus on evaluating underperforming global chemical assets and considering selective shutdowns in Europe [2] Group 3 - SABIC's CEO emphasized the need to optimize the asset portfolio and does not rule out exiting certain markets due to the pressing need to reduce costs [3] - Dow's CEO revealed that the board has approved the closure of three chemical plants in Europe to adjust regional capacity and mitigate commercial sales risks [3] - The current operating rate of European cracker plants is around 75%, and the reduction of 4.5 million tons per year in ethylene capacity is expected to help increase the operating rate to approximately 85% by 2030, promoting market balance [3]

Core Viewpoint - LG Chem and GS Caltex are negotiating the integration of LG Chem's steam cracking facility in Yeosu, South Korea, as part of a broader petrochemical industry restructuring plan initiated by the South Korean government [1] Group 1: Company Developments - LG Chem is considering selling its Yeosu cracking facility to GS Caltex and establishing a joint venture for its operation, contingent on reaching an agreement on valuation [1] - GS Caltex is a refining joint venture owned equally by GS Energy and Chevron, which indicates a strong backing for the proposed integration [1] Group 2: Industry Context - The South Korean government has agreed to reduce ethylene production capacity by 2.7 to 3.7 million tons per year, equivalent to shutting down 3 to 4 cracking facilities, aiming for a 25% overall reduction in national ethylene output [1] - Currently, South Korea's total ethylene capacity is approximately 13 million tons per year, primarily distributed across the Yeosu, Daesan, and Ulsan bases [1] - LG Chem has a total ethylene capacity of 3.38 million tons per year, with its No. 2 naphtha cracking facility in Yeosu likely to be shut down as part of this integration [1] - GS Caltex operates a 900,000 tons per year mixed feed cracking facility in Yeosu, which is considered more competitive due to its flexibility in processing various feedstocks [1]

Group 1 - The European petrochemical industry has experienced an unprecedented wave of olefin capacity reductions over the past 18 months, with seven steam cracker plants permanently closed or planned to be shut down by the end of 2027, significantly altering the regional supply landscape [1] - The closed or planned cracker plants have a combined ethylene capacity of approximately 4.5 million tons per year, along with propylene capacity of 2.3 million tons and butadiene capacity of 430,000 tons [1] - The number of existing ethylene plants in Europe is expected to fall below 50, with projections indicating a decrease to 48 plants by 2026 and further to 46 by 2029, compared to 60 plants in 2015 with a total design capacity exceeding 26 million tons per year [1] Group 2 - Major companies like Shell and SABIC are reassessing and optimizing their European asset portfolios, which include four cracker plants in the Netherlands, Germany, and the UK with a total ethylene capacity of 2.6 million tons per year [2] - BP is seeking buyers for its integrated refining and petrochemical assets in Gelsenkirchen, Germany, while Dow has announced the permanent closure of its 510,000 tons per year mixed feed cracker in Germany by Q4 2027 [2] - The closures are a response to ongoing industry challenges, with Shell's CEO acknowledging the need to evaluate its loss-making global chemical assets and potentially further selectively shut down facilities in Europe [2] Group 3 - SABIC's CEO emphasized the need to optimize the asset portfolio and does not rule out exiting certain markets due to the pressing need to reduce costs [3] - Dow's CEO revealed that the board has approved the closure of three chemical plants in Europe to adjust regional capacity and mitigate commercial sales risks [3] - The current operating rate of European cracker plants is around 75%, and by reducing ethylene capacity by 4.5 million tons per year, it is expected that the operating rate will rebound to approximately 85% by 2030, promoting market balance [3]

Core Insights - The global clean hydrogen projects are facing significant cancellations and delays due to insufficient demand, high costs, and strategic adjustments by companies [2][4] - Strategic adjustments account for 48% of the canceled capacity, approximately 6 million tons per year, as developers reassess commitments made during earlier optimistic phases of the industry [2] - A lack of strong demand has led to 13% of project cancellations, with actual demand growth falling short of expectations due to low willingness to pay and regulatory uncertainties [2] Cost and Funding Challenges - Hydrogen project costs are unlikely to decrease in the short term, and the industry remains highly dependent on subsidies and public funding [3] - Current funding mechanisms for clean hydrogen projects are insufficient to support all announced projects in the short term [3] - Policy support, such as the EU's Renewable Energy Directive III (RED III), is crucial for building sustainable business models in the hydrogen sector [3] Project Development Risks - As hydrogen projects enter deep development phases, they may face cancellation risks due to permitting and related development obstacles [3] - Approximately 20 hydrogen projects have been canceled due to issues related to environmental impact, land use, and water supply [3] - The complexity of large-scale infrastructure projects increases the challenges associated with obtaining renewable clean electricity for electrolysis [3] Industry Transition and Future Outlook - The initial enthusiasm for clean hydrogen is giving way to a more cautious approach as the industry faces real challenges [4] - Despite project cancellations, new projects continue to emerge in regions like India and China, indicating ongoing interest in the sector [4] - Bridging the gap between policy ambitions and commercial viability requires strong government support, genuine market signals, and clearer investment guidance [4]

Group 1 - The South Korean petrochemical industry is undergoing a comprehensive restructuring due to oversupply, with small independent naphtha cracking units potentially facing shutdowns and some facilities considering mergers to cope with the crisis [1] - The South Korean Ministry of Trade, Industry and Energy announced that the top ten petrochemical companies in Korea have agreed to cut naphtha cracking capacity by 2.7 to 3.7 million tons per year, which is equivalent to 25% of the current total capacity, aiming to alleviate the long-term oversupply situation and improve industry profit margins [1] - Wood Mackenzie's chemicals division head, Catherine Tan, indicated that the restructuring's impact on naphtha demand may exceed that of liquefied petroleum gas (LPG), as 82% of ethylene production in Korea relies on naphtha as a feedstock [1] Group 2 - SK Innovation is considering various options, including shutting down a naphtha cracking unit, while analysts suggest that YNCC, the third-largest ethylene producer in Korea, may close 1 to 2 of its 3 cracking units [2] - Hyundai Heavy Industries is in talks with Lotte Chemical regarding the acquisition of its naphtha cracking unit or a business merger, with Lotte being the second-largest ethylene producer in Korea [2]

中化新网讯 9月3日，伊拉克石油行业消息人士透露，英国石油公司(BP)工程师已抵达伊拉克北部基尔 库克省，并启动了对4座战略油田的初步评估工作。此举标志着该公司与伊拉克签订的250亿美元的基尔 库克油田再开发协议正式进入实施阶段。 今年3月，伊拉克联邦政府正式批准了该合同，BP与伊拉克最终敲定了这项总投资约250亿美元的协 议。根据协议，NOC、NGC与BP将合作对基尔库克多个巨型油田进行修复与再开发，涵盖石油、天然 气、电力及水资源领域，并可能拓展至勘探领域。 BP表示，协议首阶段目标为生产超过30亿桶油当量的油气资源，涉及基尔库克油田的巴巴穹隆和阿瓦 纳穹隆构造，以及伊拉克管辖区域内毗邻的目前均由NOC运营的拜哈桑、詹布尔和哈巴兹油田。据BP 估算，合同区及周边区域的潜在资源总量或高达200亿桶油当量。 据伊拉克北方石油公司(NOC)和北方天然气公司(NGC)内部人士称，BP专家组已着手开发基尔库克地区 这两家伊拉克国有企业的基础设施与生产设施。根据伊拉克消息源，这些油田评估完成后将制定长期开 发计划，旨在提高油气产量并优化开采效率。 ...

Core Viewpoint - TotalEnergies has acquired a significant offshore exploration license in the Republic of Congo, which is expected to enhance oil and gas supply levels in West Africa [1] Group 1: Exploration License Details - The Nzombo block covers an area of 1,000 square kilometers [1] - TotalEnergies holds a 50% stake in the block, while Qatar Energy owns 35% and the Congolese National Oil Company holds 15% [1] Group 2: Strategic Importance - The Nzombo block is located approximately 100 kilometers (62 miles) from the Black Point coast, adjacent to the Moho oil field, which produces around 100,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day [1] - TotalEnergies' exploration senior vice president, Kevin McLachlan, stated that the Nzombo block has significant potential and aligns with the company's strategy to expand its exploration portfolio through high-potential projects [1] - The development of the Nzombo block will leverage existing facilities, further strengthening the long-term partnership with the Republic of Congo [1]

中化新网讯 近日，因油价下跌及宏观运营环境恶化，马来西亚国家石油公司宣布，上半年营收和利润 双双走低，油气产量同比下滑3%。公司销售收入下降24%，税后利润减少19%。 2025年上半年，马国油公司日均油气总产量为240.3万桶油当量/日，较2024年同期的248.2万桶油当量/ 日下降3.2%，主要归因于国内天然气产量下降和国际石油产量减少。面对马来西亚本土增产困境，叠 加上半年动荡的宏观环境，公司经营压力加剧。 针对上半年业绩，马国油总裁兼集团CEO东姑穆罕默德·陶菲克表示："在2025年上半年日益严峻的宏观 环境下，我们仍坚定致力于增强业务韧性和资产组合质量，以实现长期增长。"目前，Petronas正通过战 略转型应对全球市场挑战，重点聚焦资产组合优化、战略合作、生产效率提升和成本管控。 ...

近期，天然气需求和产量也都大概率会上升，连能源转型的积极倡导者国际能源署(IEA)都在近期报告 中表示，预计天然气需求将持续增长，尤其是LNG需求。在能源转型最激进的欧洲，可再生能源的大 幅增长也并未显著降低天然气需求。结合人工智能增长前景及其对电力需求的影响后，可以判定，未来 对天然气的需求只会更加稳固。 从天然气能源的必要性看，多家石油巨头最新季度报告均强调了液化天然气(LNG)业务的重要性。当前 已迎来人工智能时代，分析师认为，人工智能将推动全球电力需求飙升，而风电和太阳能无法满足数据 中心的新增电力需求，天然气发电恰恰是最稳定和清洁的能源供应方式，因此只能寄望于LNG这一化 石能源。事实上，LNG也已成为能源巨头的关注焦点。此前，壳牌宣布计划到2030年新增1200万吨/年 LNG产能。法国道达尔能源公司既推进自有LNG项目，也与其他生产商开展LNG贸易，计划到2030年 将公司控制的LNG量提升50%。今年初，英国石油公司(BP)在塞内加尔和毛里塔尼亚近海启动了新的 LNG项目，并计划将这两个国家打造成大型LNG枢纽。埃克森美孚和雪佛龙在该领域同样雄心勃勃： 埃克森美孚计划到2030年将LNG资产增 ...