1月7日，国内期市有色金属板块多数飘红。其中，沪镍期货主力合约开盘报143500.00元/吨，今日盘中 高位震荡运行；截至发稿，沪镍主力最高触及147720.00元，下方探低142020.00元，涨幅达6.89%附 近。 目前来看，沪镍行情呈现震荡上行走势，盘面表现偏强。对于沪镍后市行情将如何运行，相关机构观点 汇总如下： 南华期货（603093）分析称，印尼供给端政策预期扰动，印尼2026年镍矿生产配额削减约34%至2.5亿 吨，市场对供给收缩预期反应迅速，政策面利好支撑镍价上涨，宏观层面情绪回暖，短期偏强运行。 正信期货表示，短期来看，政策预期仍将主导市场情绪，镍价或维持偏强态势，但需警惕产业链需求跟 进不足及政策落地不及预期的回调风险。操作上建议谨慎追高，关注印尼政策执行情况效果及下游不锈 钢、新能源需求复苏情况，注意风险控制。 兴业期货指出，26年印尼削减镍矿供应暂难证伪，固态电池产业化新增利好提振需求预期，叠加宏观环 境向好、镍相较铜价的比值尚处于偏低位置，虽然镍基本面弱现实未改，但当前宜持有多头思路。 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that despite gold reaching new highs in 2025 and touching the $4500 mark, U.S. institutional and individual investors remain lukewarm towards gold exposure, which Goldman Sachs identifies as a "significant structural opportunity" that could drive gold prices higher [2] - Goldman Sachs reports that the size of U.S. gold ETFs is 6 basis points lower than its peak in 2012, primarily due to the overall growth of investment portfolios outpacing gold price and trading volume expansion. As of the second quarter of last year, gold ETFs accounted for only 0.17% (17 basis points) of the $112 trillion stock and bond assets, indicating a minimal share [2] - Less than half of large institutions hold gold ETFs, with allocation ratios typically between 10-50 basis points, and the average long-term institutional allocation is only 20 basis points. This low allocation contrasts sharply with mainstream sell-side recommendations from firms like Citigroup, UBS, and Morgan Stanley, which advocate for increased gold allocation [2] Group 2 - Catalyst Funds' Chief Investment Officer Miller emphasizes that the long-term upward momentum for gold is driven by deep changes in the global monetary system, with the dollar's reserve status being weakened by weaponization of sanctions, aggressive tariffs, and ballooning deficits. Central banks' continuous gold purchases, regardless of price, provide strong support [3] - Miller criticizes holding bonds when inflation exceeds nominal yields, suggesting that gold is becoming a defensive anchor, and recommends measuring wealth in gold to reflect true purchasing power. He anticipates that even with a slowdown, gold's annual growth rate could maintain between 10%-20% [3] Group 3 - The latest spot gold market analysis indicates that gold made a strong upward move, breaking previous highs, but faced a significant pullback, with the low point near the previous day's low of $4460. Key levels to watch include the early morning high of $4500 and the low of $4460, which will determine the market's direction [4] - The current market rhythm suggests that maintaining a bullish outlook requires avoiding a second bottom, with a stronger trend expected if the European session breaks above the high. Conversely, if the price remains below $4500 or drops below $4460, a corrective pattern may emerge, although the overall shape remains predominantly bullish [4]

Market Overview - The Brazil CEPEA/ESALQ cotton price index reported at 65.72 cents per pound, an increase of 0.81% from the previous day and 3.81% from the same period last month [1] - As of January 3, Brazil's cotton planting rate reached 31.2%, up from 25.1% the previous week and slightly above last year's 30.5%, with a five-year average of 20.9% [1] Cost Analysis - The total cost of planting machine-harvested cotton in Northern Xinjiang for 2025 is projected to be 2962 yuan per mu, a decrease of 40 yuan per mu year-on-year, representing a reduction of 1.3% [1] Institutional Insights - According to Wenkang Futures, the reduction in cotton planting area in Xinjiang was anticipated by the market, and the recent rise in Zheng cotton prices may lead to increased price volatility. The supply-demand relationship is currently balanced, with increased downstream operating rates and limited imports, suggesting a favorable outlook for potential buying opportunities [3] - Micron Futures noted that the cotton market is maintaining a strong oscillating trend, influenced by surrounding commodity markets. There is optimism regarding textile exports and domestic sales, but breaking through the current price range will require validation of consumption in the new year and confirmation of supply conditions [4]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that gold enters 2026 with strong historical upward momentum, despite being labeled "overbought" in 2024-2025, and the market's positioning remains reasonable, with gold showing the smallest pullback among precious metals [1][3] - The primary driving logic for gold's rise in 2024-2025 is the low real yields caused by political uncertainty in the U.S., which is expected to continue into 2026 due to high government spending pushing inflation expectations and a dovish interest rate environment [3] - Central bank purchases are a long-term key support for gold prices, with global reserve allocation imbalances leading to accelerated buying from central banks in 2024-2025, particularly from countries like China and Turkey [3] Group 2 - Geopolitical tensions, such as the Russia-Ukraine conflict and recent events in Venezuela, are significant catalysts for gold prices, as risk aversion drives funds towards gold [3] - The emergence of AI narratives has injected industrial demand into the precious metals sector, potentially offsetting weak jewelry consumption and reinforcing the trend of gold prices moving in tandem with the Nasdaq index [3] - Potential risks include unexpected hawkish moves from the Federal Reserve or a surge in long-term yields, but current market expectations lean towards easing, providing a buffer for gold prices [3] Group 3 - Monthly gold prices maintain a bullish channel, but the RSI is at historical highs, indicating a need for time correction; weekly analysis shows fluctuations around the 10-week moving average [4] - Key resistance levels are identified at 4516-4544, while support levels are at 4230-4274 and 4115, with an extreme level at 4000 [4] - The strategy suggests high selling and low buying within the range, with a breakout above 4400 targeting 4516-4544, and a drop below 4230 indicating weakness [4]

摘要今日周三(1月7日)亚盘时段，纸黄金目前交投于1001元附近，截至发稿，纸黄金暂报1002.89元/ 克，跌幅0.26%，最高触及1002.99元/克，最低下探1002.97元/克。目前来看，纸黄金短线偏向震荡走 势。 各界普遍预期12月失业率由4.6%小幅回落至4.5%。若回暖，美联储在1月底更可能按兵不动，且暂停期 或延长；当前官员口径与市场定价均偏谨慎。官方预测指向2026年或仅降息一次、2027年再降一次，而 期货定价隐含今年或至降息两次、年末区间3.00%–3.25%。 若非农显著弱于预期(如新增显著低于10万)，降息概率上升、长端收益率走低；若意外强劲(如>15 万)，"更高更久"叙事或强化、压制估值；若大致符合预期(约5–10万)，市场或延续震荡，等待更多数据 确认趋势。 今日周三(1月7日)亚盘时段，纸黄金目前交投于1001元附近，截至发稿，纸黄金暂报1002.89元/克，跌 幅0.26%，最高触及1002.99元/克，最低下探1002.97元/克。目前来看，纸黄金短线偏向震荡走势。 【最新纸黄金行情解析】 【要闻速递】 工行纸黄金(2026年1月7日)技术分析：报价978.50元/克，日 ...

1月7日，国内期市煤炭板块多数飘红。其中，焦炭期货主力合约开盘报1650.0元/吨，今日盘中高位震 荡运行；截至发稿，焦炭主力最高触及1758.0元，下方探低1646.0元，涨幅达6.73%附近。 目前来看，焦炭行情呈现震荡上行走势，盘面表现偏强。对于焦炭后市行情将如何运行，相关机构观点 汇总如下： 弘业期货（001236）表示，近期焦炭经历四轮降价，焦企利润有所承压，出现一定限产，产量有所下 降，而需求方面，钢厂利润有所恢复，年后钢厂高炉复产增加，对焦炭刚需有所增加，但由于库存相对 合理，维持按需采购，整体上维持低位震荡。 迈科期货分析称，供应端，焦炭第四轮提降落地，焦企利润将承压。上周焦企利润有所好转，焦炭产量 变化不大。需求端，在连续提降后钢厂利润有所好转，上周铁水产量变上升。短期五大材产量上升，但 淡季整体需求较差，铁水产量预计将难有明显上升。总体来看，需求短期好转，但中长期看驱动向下。 库存端，钢厂有所补库，库存环比上升，当前钢厂库存水平处于同期偏高水平，预计冬储补库空间有 限；焦企库存环比下滑。结论：震荡思路对待，注意控制风险，焦炭指数日内参考1680-1720。 东吴期货指出，下游近期拿货情绪有 ...

二、阳光财产保险股份有限公司应按照有关规定及时办理变更及许可证换领事宜。 一、同意阳光财产保险股份有限公司枣庄市台儿庄支公司将营业场所变更为：枣庄市台儿庄区运河街道 兰祺路275号南首二层。 2025年12月30日，国家金融监督管理总局枣庄监管分局发布批复称，《关于阳光财产保险股份有限公司 枣庄市台儿庄支公司营业场所变更的请示》(枣庄阳光产险〔2025〕98号)收悉。经审核，现批复如下： ...

二、永安财产保险股份有限公司应按照有关规定及时办理变更及许可证换领事宜。 2025年12月31日，国家金融监督管理总局聊城监管分局发布批复称，《关于永安财产保险股份有限公司 聊城中心支公司莘县营销服务部营业场所变更的请示》(永保鲁字〔2025〕141号)收悉。经审核，现批 复如下： 一、同意永安财产保险股份有限公司聊城中心支公司莘县营销服务部将营业场所变更为山东省聊城市莘 县振兴街116号天乐尚都D6号楼22号。 ...

2025年12月30日，国家金融监督管理总局菏泽监管分局发布批复称，《中国人寿（601628）保险股份有 限公司菏泽分公司关于中国人寿保险股份有限公司曹县支公司曹城营销服务部变更营业地址的请示》 (国寿人险菏发〔2025〕311号)收悉。经审核，现批复如下： 二、中国人寿保险股份有限公司菏泽分公司应按照有关规定及时办理变更及许可证换领事宜。 一、同意中国人寿保险股份有限公司曹县支公司曹城营销服务部变更营业地址为：山东省菏泽市曹县长 江东路路南中央华府商业1号中国人寿曹县支公司一楼103职场。 ...

一、同意民生人寿保险股份有限公司聊城中心支公司将营业场所变更为山东省聊城市东昌府区古楼办事 处东昌西路西首北金泰大厦1幢4层。 二、民生人寿保险股份有限公司应按照有关规定及时办理变更及许可证换领事宜。 2025年12月31日，国家金融监督管理总局聊城监管分局发布批复称，《关于民生人寿保险股份有限公司 聊城中心支公司营业场所变更的请示》(民保(山东)发〔2025〕216号)收悉。经审核，现批复如下： ...