讲话万众瞩目，但他并未提及任何跟货币政策和辞职传闻相关的内容。以下是他的讲话全文。 我们必须确保资本框架的不同部分能够协同发挥作用，这样才能维护一个安全、稳健、高效的银行体 系，造福我们服务的公众。美国的银行资本框架包括基于风险的资本要求、杠杆要求、针对最大和最复 杂银行的附加资本要求，以及压力测试。 周二20:30，美联储主席鲍威尔在监管会议上发表极为简短的讲话，强调美联储将全面审视大型银行资 本框架，确保监管有效、系统稳健，并欢迎各方建言献策。 鲍威尔最新讲话全文 早上好，欢迎来到美联储。我很高兴——虽然并不意外——看到大家对今天会议主题表现出如此浓厚的 兴趣，今天我们要讨论的是对大型银行资本框架的综合审查。我特别感谢监管副主席鲍曼在她任期伊始 就提出举办这场会议的好主意，也要感谢美联储工作人员为筹备这次会议付出的不懈努力。 今天，我们将聆听来自业内资深人士、学者，以及现任和前任政策制定者的看法，他们都非常熟悉大型 银行的运作以及资本框架的主要支柱。这次会议的一大好处，就是有机会将资本框架的各个组成部分作 为一个整体来考虑，而不是孤立地审视每一个环节。 我们的监管资本框架和所有银行规则，最终都要通过监管加 ...

Core Viewpoint - General Motors (GM) is set to release its Q2 earnings report, with investors keenly observing the impact of President Trump's auto tariffs on its performance and whether the company will update its full-year guidance [2] Group 1: Tariff Impact and Company Strategy - The Trump administration's 25% tariffs on imported cars and many auto parts remain in effect, creating uncertainty for automakers [2] - In response to tariff risks, GM announced a $4 billion investment in several U.S. factories, including relocating two models previously produced in Mexico to the U.S. and increasing production of a fuel SUV and pickups in Michigan [2] - GM expressed confidence in offsetting at least 30% of the anticipated increase in tariff costs, while lowering its 2025 profit guidance, estimating the impact of tariffs to be between $4 billion to $5 billion [2][5] Group 2: Financial Expectations - According to Wall Street's average expectations, adjusted earnings per share (EPS) are projected at $2.44, with revenue at $46.281 billion, indicating a year-over-year revenue decline of 3.3% and a 20.3% drop in adjusted EPS [4] - GM's revised full-year guidance includes adjusted EBIT of $10 billion to $12.5 billion, down from a previous estimate of $13.7 billion to $15.7 billion, and net income for shareholders revised to $8.2 billion to $10.1 billion from $11.2 billion to $12.5 billion [5] Group 3: Electric Vehicle (EV) Strategy - Investors are also focused on comments regarding electric vehicles (EVs) during the earnings call, especially in light of the new tax law signed by Trump that will eliminate tax credits for new and used EVs after September 30 [6] - GM initially planned to sell only electric vehicles by 2035 but has indicated that future EV strategies will depend on market demand due to lower-than-expected consumer interest [7] - Despite challenges, GM's stock retains a "buy" rating with a target price of $56 per share according to FactSet [7]

据路透社本周援引欧盟外交官的消息，如果欧盟无法与美国总统特朗普达成贸易协议，包括法国和德国 在内的多个欧盟成员国正考虑对美国采取"ACI"措施。 这些措施可能包括：欧盟限制美国供应商进入欧盟市场，将其排除在欧盟公共采购的参与之外，以及对 商品和服务施加进出口限制，并限制对该地区的外国直接投资。 鉴于特朗普与欧盟的贸易争端已接近白热化，部署欧盟"贸易核选项"的时机也可能临近。 目前，白宫表示，如果在此之前未能达成贸易协议，它将于8月1日对欧盟进口商品征收30%的关税。白 宫表示该截止日期已确定，但指出贸易谈判在此日期之后仍可能继续。 随着美国对欧盟进口商品征收30%关税的威胁日益逼近，欧盟似乎正准备部署其"反经济胁迫工 具"（ACI），该工具被描述为旨在阻止贸易争端的"核选项"。 欧盟委员会指出，欧盟的应对措施必须"与其所抵消的损害成比例，并且必须具有针对性和临时性"，只 要感知到的胁迫持续存在，就将一直适用。 欧盟委员会采取行动也需要时间，该程序要求其在调查可能的胁迫案件后，请成员国确认其调查结果。 然后，需要合格多数（27个成员国中至少有15个）同意采纳ACI应对措施，甚至在这些措施付诸实施之 前，欧盟委员 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the need for structural reform of the Federal Reserve, emphasizing systemic issues beyond short-term interest rate decisions, as highlighted by Judy Shelton and Kevin Warsh [1] Group 1: Federal Reserve's Challenges - Shelton identifies deeper systemic problems within the Federal Reserve, including its models, structure, and the way meetings are organized [1] - There is a call to integrate the Federal Reserve into broader economic and national security strategies [1] - Shelton questions the democratic legitimacy of the Federal Reserve's independence, arguing that its leadership cannot be dismissed by Congress or the President [1] Group 2: Financial Implications - The Federal Reserve has incurred operational losses since September 2022, with over $900 billion in unrealized capital losses in its investment portfolio [1] - Shelton criticizes the policy of paying interest on reserves held by commercial banks, stating it discourages productive investment [2] - Senator Ted Cruz advocates for the elimination of interest on reserve balances, suggesting it could save $2 trillion in deficits over the next decade [2] Group 3: Broader Economic Impact - The shift of the Federal Reserve from a profit-contributing entity to one that expands deficits raises concerns about its operational framework [2] - Economic expert Jeremy Siegel supports the scrutiny of the Federal Reserve's operations due to its changing role in the economy [2]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that the dollar is facing new pressures as a series of risks loom in August, with the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index's one-month risk reversal turning negative for the first time, reflecting a shift in market sentiment towards bearish expectations for the dollar [2] - Several macro catalysts are influencing this trend, including potential dovish signals from the Federal Reserve's July meeting, unpredictability in Washington's policies, and ongoing concerns about the Fed's independence, alongside new tariff announcements and weak U.S. economic data [2] - Peter Kinsella, head of foreign exchange strategy at Union Bancaire Privee, suggests that the dollar may weaken as short-term interest rates peak while long-term rates steepen, with Trump's comments adding pressure on Fed Chair Powell and increasing uncertainty [2] Group 2 - The strong performance of the dollar in July is viewed merely as a correction, with data from the Depository Trust & Clearing Corporation indicating an increase in demand for dollar downside risk exposure, suggesting a return of bearish sentiment [5] - The volatility skew has decisively turned negative compared to the rebound in June, indicating that options traders are preparing for a continuation of the current downtrend for the dollar [5] Group 3 - Technically, the dollar remains locked in a bearish trend channel, with recent rebounds resembling a pattern seen earlier this year, where momentum fades after a roughly 2% increase [6] - The recent rebound has been capped by the 55-day moving average, a key resistance level that has repeatedly acted as a ceiling, reinforcing the view that the dollar's strength is only temporary rather than indicative of a breakout [6] Group 4 - The dollar has maintained a downward trend throughout the year [7]

AI播客：换个方式听新闻 下载mp3 不过，像高盛这样的竞争对手目前不接受加密货币作为抵押品。 这项政策将标志着摩根大通首席执行官戴蒙的一大转变，他曾在八年前将比特币斥为"欺诈"，称其"最 终会爆炸"，并且只对毒贩和杀人犯有用。 据知情人士透露，摩根大通可能最早在明年开始直接以比特币和以太坊等加密资产为抵押进行贷款，但 他们警告称，该计划可能会有变动。摩根大通拒绝对此发表评论。 此举将凸显出大型银行乃至更广泛的受监管金融行业，正以何种程度开放与加密货币的更密切互动。据 一位知情人士称，戴蒙早期关于比特币的评论——其中他还表示会解雇任何交易比特币的交易员——曾 疏远了一些潜在客户，这些客户要么是通过加密资产赚钱的，要么是长期相信其潜力的。 随着华盛顿风向的转变，更多银行已开始拥抱加密货币，特朗普第二届政府倾向于比拜登政府更宽松的 监管。摩根士丹利一直在考虑通过其ETrade平台提供加密货币交易。 音频由扣子空间生成 上周，美国众议院通过了监管稳定币的立法，这是国会批准的首个主要加密法律。大型银行对此法案表 示欢迎，认为这是一种能让他们更容易地开展数字资产业务的方式。与比特币等没有基础资产支持的加 密货币不同，稳 ...

Group 1 - IBM's stock has outperformed the S&P 500 index this year, rising 30% compared to the index's 7% increase, which may pose challenges for its upcoming earnings report [2] - Analysts have mixed expectations for IBM's Q2 performance, with optimism surrounding its software business, particularly the Red Hat acquisition, despite a potential slowdown in consulting services [2][3] - The software business is considered a core pillar for IBM, with expectations of a 10% year-over-year revenue growth for the full year, despite a slowdown in Q1 [4] Group 2 - IBM is expected to report Q2 revenue of $16.6 billion and adjusted earnings per share of $2.65, according to analyst forecasts [5] - The consulting business may face challenges in the second half of the year due to federal budget cuts, but its overall reliance on federal business is low, accounting for only about 5% of total revenue [4] - The anticipated growth in the software segment is supported by increased enterprise investment in AI and the modernization of software through hybrid cloud adoption [3][4]

Group 1 - Intel is set to release its Q2 earnings report, but analysts believe investors are more focused on the company's future strategy rather than specific financial data [2] - The company appointed a new CEO, Lip-Bu Tan, in March, amid challenges in the AI competition and significant layoffs, necessitating tough decisions regarding business development [2] - Analysts from Bernstein noted that Intel's PC business appears stable due to tariff factors, but the growth in PC demand is seen as a result of "pulling forward" orders to avoid potential future tariff adjustments [2] Group 2 - Investors are questioning Intel's 18A chip manufacturing process, with reports suggesting the company may not offer this process to external customers, which could lead to significant asset impairment [3] - Bernstein's team slightly adjusted Intel's Q2 revenue forecast from $11.8 billion to $11.9 billion, still below the FactSet consensus of $12 billion, while lowering the Q3 forecast from $12.6 billion to $12.5 billion [3] - The stock is viewed as event-driven, making it difficult to short, as it can experience sudden spikes due to news [3]

尽管黄金的看涨投机仓位依然拥挤，但一位市场策略师认为，这并非近期价格走势背后的主要驱动力。 美国商品期货交易委员会的最新交易数据显示，截至7月18日当周，基金经理将其看涨押注增加了7972 份合约，至总数172657份。与此同时，他们将其空头头寸减少了13763份合约，至22625份。 渣打银行贵金属分析师Suki Cooper在她最新的黄金报告中指出，净持仓占未平仓合约的百分比在过去 七周里一直徘徊在31%左右。 Cooper继续看好黄金，因为尽管近几个月购买速度有所放缓，各国央行仍在继续增加其官方储备。她 说，"官方部门的购买已显示出放缓迹象，但尽管价格创下纪录，央行的购买仍在持续，并未转向净卖 出。" 她指出，随着美国总统特朗普在他的持续贸易战中发布新的进口关税威胁，未平仓合约在7月初保持稳 定。她补充说，尽管战术性仓位仍然坚定地看多且拥挤，但它也已成为近期价格走势的一个关键驱动因 素。 然而，Cooper表示，她正在密切监控的是全球黄金交易所交易产品（ETP）的投资需求，而非投机性 仓位，前者的资金流入在2025年上半年达到了五年来的最高水平。 除了追踪ETP投资需求外，Cooper说她也在监控美元。 ...

AI播客：换个方式听新闻 下载mp3 美联储还表示，部分额外成本是由于原材料价格上涨、劳动力成本上升以及施工进度变化导致租赁空间 使用时间延长所致。而鲍威尔指出，2021年提交给国家首都规划委员会的规划文件中的一些升级内容后 来被取消，但美联储无需重新提交文件，因为这些变更并不"重大"，而是为了简化施工、减少进一步延 误和成本增加的可能性。 自特朗普第二任期开始以来，他一直试图让美联储降低利率，但美联储因特朗普的关税政策恐再度引发 通胀而不愿配合。随着美联储拒绝让步，特朗普曾表示想要解雇美联储主席鲍威尔，但最高法院暗示解 雇鲍威尔可能违宪，华尔街投资者也反对这一想法。 特朗普政府似乎抓住了美联储大楼翻新一事，试图找到解雇鲍威尔的借口。上周，当被问及是否会解雇 鲍威尔时，特朗普表示，除非涉及欺诈，否则可能性极小。 音频由扣子空间生成 北京时间周二20:30，美联储主席鲍威尔将出席一场跟大型银行资本框架综合审查相关的监管会议，并 且发表开幕词。 他的讲话料将聚焦于巴塞尔协议III最终方案、压力测试、大型银行的资本附加以及杠杆要求等监管相关 的话题。但是，由于近期特朗普以及共和党议员频繁就美联储总部翻新工程超支一事 ...