来源：川阅全球宏观 我们一直强调，降息是问题的开始，不是结束。降多了、降快了，通胀是风险；降少了、降慢了，特朗普是风险。点阵图暗示年内75bp降息，相较6月增 加了25bp，还是契合了鲍威尔在杰克逊霍尔会议上谨慎宽松的论调，但这和米兰及其背后白宫想要的150bp相差不小。美联储的独立性之争才刚刚开始。 往后看，劳动力市场降温与通胀粘性的"数据悖论"，米兰任命带来的政治博弈等都使得美联储的决策面临"两难"局面，也将后续宽松路径的走势推向复杂 化。在白宫的施压下，市场可能还是会时不时定价年内比75bp更多的降息。而从经济动态来看，我们依旧对持续宽松后的增长和通胀组合保持持续关注， 连续降息不会一帆风顺，在特朗普的政策组合下，"金发女郎式"的软着陆（增长复苏+低通胀）难度更大，"滞"和"胀"的按钮更容易被触发。 9月利率如期下调25bp，意料之外的是，美联储官员展现出了高度的团结性。此前市场预期的沃勒和鲍曼并未对此投出反对票，仅米兰一人支持降息 50bp，表明联储内部并未完全因受迫于政治压力而做出过度激进的表态。 但相较于降息本身，更值得关注的是会议传递出的政策信号。从会议声明、鲍威尔后续的表态以及点阵图上，本次会 ...

Core Insights - The recent transactions involving Sheikh Tahnoon of Abu Dhabi and the Trump family highlight the intertwining of capital, power, and family influence, raising ethical concerns [2][9] - Sheikh Tahnoon invested $2 billion in World Liberty Financial, a cryptocurrency company co-founded by Trump and his associate Steve Witkoff, while the White House approved the export of high-performance AI chips to the UAE shortly after [2][7] - The transactions challenge ethical boundaries, as they may benefit officials and their families, despite denials of any direct connection between the two deals [2][8] Investment and Business Implications - World Liberty Financial's acquisition of $2 billion in stablecoins from Sheikh Tahnoon positions the company prominently in the global cryptocurrency market [7] - The approval for AI chip exports will increase the annual supply from approximately 100,000 to 500,000 units, significantly benefiting Sheikh Tahnoon's tech group G42 [7] - The transactions are expected to generate tens of millions in revenue for World Liberty Financial and strengthen ties with Middle Eastern capital [9] Ethical and Regulatory Concerns - The involvement of David Sacks, a government official with ties to Silicon Valley, in chip negotiations raises concerns about conflicts of interest and the blending of government and private business [8] - The transactions reflect a shift in the traditional separation between government and private business in the U.S., resembling the family governance and wealth-sharing models seen in the Gulf region [9]

Core Points - A confrontation over U.S. government funding is intensifying, with Democrats proposing a significant counter-proposal that increases the risk of a government shutdown on October 1 [2] - The Democratic proposal includes healthcare policy reforms, which House Speaker Mike Johnson has stated have "zero" chance of becoming law as part of the spending bill [2] - The proposal aims to repeal Medicaid cuts enacted in July and seeks to extend Obamacare tax subsidies, potentially costing hundreds of billions [2] Group 1 - The Democratic counter-proposal lists priorities that could form the basis for any future compromise plan, but no serious negotiations have taken place so far [2] - Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer has indicated that Republicans have not requested negotiations, suggesting a lack of willingness to engage [2] - The proposed temporary funding bill from Democrats would last until October 31, just before the insurance enrollment period begins [3] Group 2 - Republicans need at least seven Senate Democrats' support to pass a government funding bill, but Schumer has been firmly opposed to the Republican proposal [3] - Republican leaders have stated they do not intend to negotiate healthcare as part of the temporary funding process, viewing any significant healthcare-related proposals as unserious [3] - Concerns have been raised by Republican Senator Susan Collins about the lack of bipartisan support, with pressure from Schumer on Democrats to resist crossing party lines [3]

Core Points - The article discusses the strained relationship between President Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu, highlighting Trump's dissatisfaction with Netanyahu's military approach towards Hamas instead of a negotiated ceasefire [1][2] - Despite Trump's criticisms, Netanyahu's position remains strong, supported by his influence over U.S. Congress and Republican media [4][5] - The article also explores the complexities of their relationship, including shared perceptions of being outsiders and the political implications of their alliance [3][6] Group 1: Relationship Dynamics - Trump's frustration with Netanyahu stems from the latter's military actions that jeopardize peace negotiations, leading Trump to express feelings of being manipulated [1][2] - Netanyahu's actions have complicated U.S. relations with other allies in the region and hindered the expansion of the Abraham Accords [1][2] - Despite Trump's criticisms, he has not publicly pressured Netanyahu or altered U.S. military support for Israel, indicating a complex dynamic where personal relationships play a significant role [2][6] Group 2: Political Implications - Netanyahu's relationship with Trump is bolstered by their shared experiences of perceived persecution by their respective political elites [3] - The Republican Party's support for Israel remains strong, with a Gallup poll indicating that two-thirds of Republicans view Netanyahu positively, contrasting sharply with the Democratic Party's declining support [4][5] - However, there are emerging fractures within the Republican base, with some members openly criticizing Israel's actions in Gaza, suggesting potential shifts in political support [5] Group 3: Strategic Considerations - Trump's reluctance to publicly sever ties with Netanyahu reflects his desire to maintain a favorable diplomatic legacy, particularly regarding the Abraham Accords [6][9] - The recent attack on Hamas negotiators in Qatar has raised concerns about the timing and effectiveness of military strategies, with Trump warning Hamas of increased military action [8][10] - The article suggests that Netanyahu understands the importance of presenting a narrative of victory to align with Trump's preferences for success [11]

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve's decision to cut interest rates by 25 basis points has led to initial market gains, but investor sentiment quickly cooled following Chairman Powell's description of the move as a "risk management" decision [1][2] - There is significant internal disagreement within the Federal Reserve regarding the outlook for policy in 2026, which may lead to increased market volatility in the coming year [1][4] - The market's mixed reaction is attributed to uncertainty about the future interest rate path, with the S&P 500 index ultimately closing down despite initial gains [5] Group 2 - The Federal Reserve's focus on the weakening labor market is becoming more pronounced, with concerns about potential downward spirals in employment and upward pressures on prices [2][4] - Economic forecasts from the Federal Reserve indicate stronger nominal economic growth and lower unemployment rates for 2026, yet only one rate cut is planned, creating a contradictory signal [4] - The next Federal Reserve policy meeting is scheduled for October 28, with investors closely watching upcoming economic data, particularly initial jobless claims [5]

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve has lowered its policy rate by 25 basis points to a range of 4%-4.25%, marking the first rate cut since December of the previous year, while signaling a gradual easing cycle in response to labor market concerns [1][2] - The latest dot plot indicates expectations for more easing this year, with a projected additional 50 basis points cut by year-end, despite inflation remaining above the 2% target at 3% [2][3] - There is significant divergence among Federal Reserve officials regarding future interest rate paths, leading to increased market uncertainty and potential volatility [4] Group 2 - The recent increase in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) in August, driven by rising housing and food costs, has raised fears of stagflation, characterized by slow growth and high inflation [3] - The labor market is showing signs of weakness, with the unemployment rate rising to 4.3% and employment growth falling short of expectations, supporting the case for multiple rate cuts [2][3] - The market's reaction to the Federal Reserve's dovish shift has been mixed, with major indices like the Nasdaq and S&P 500 experiencing volatility following the announcement [2][4]

Core Viewpoint - The Bank of England is expected to maintain its benchmark interest rate at 4% during the upcoming monetary policy meeting, while also slowing down its quantitative tightening (QT) plan due to increased volatility in the government bond market [1][4]. Group 1: Interest Rate Decision - Economists anticipate that the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) will keep the annual reduction of government bond holdings at £700 billion, down from £1 trillion [1]. - The MPC is expected to vote 7 to 2 in favor of maintaining the interest rate, as decision-makers await clearer signals regarding potential inflationary pressures from the labor market [5][7]. - The market currently sees only a one-third probability of further rate cuts by the end of the year, breaking the trend of quarterly cuts since August 2024 [7][10]. Group 2: Economic Performance - The UK economy showed better-than-expected performance, with a 0.3% growth in Q2, surpassing the previous forecast of 0.1%, making it the leader in growth among G7 countries [11]. - Despite positive economic indicators, the Bank of England remains cautious, predicting a 0.3% growth for Q3 and expressing concerns over persistent inflationary pressures [11]. Group 3: Inflation Concerns - The Bank of England expects inflation to peak at 4%, driven by temporary factors, but officials are wary of a potential "second-round effect" where rising wages could further elevate prices [11]. - The current inflation level remains significantly higher than that of the US and Eurozone, indicating ongoing challenges for the UK economy [11].

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's decision to cut interest rates by 25 basis points to a range of 4%-4.25% aligns with market expectations, but the latest dot plot and Powell's statements have dampened expectations for rapid and significant rate cuts [1][3] Group 1: Federal Reserve's Rate Decision - This marks the first rate cut by the Federal Reserve this year, following a pause in policy adjustments since December of the previous year [3] - The dot plot indicates a mixed outlook among officials, with one member advocating for no cuts this year, while others suggest varying degrees of cuts, with a consensus hinting at three total cuts of 25 basis points each [3] Group 2: Market Reactions - Following the rate decision, gold prices initially surged to $3707 per ounce, reaching a historical high, before experiencing a decline of nearly $50, settling at $3645.18 per ounce [1] - The market's reaction to the Fed's decision reflects uncertainty, with analysts noting that Powell's characterization of the cut as a "risk management" move led to profit-taking [4] Group 3: Future Expectations - Traders are currently pricing in a 90% probability of another 25 basis point cut in the upcoming October meeting, up from 74.3% the previous day [4] - Analysts predict that gold prices may experience further corrections, potentially dropping to around $3600 per ounce in the short term [4] Group 4: Gold Market Dynamics - The recent decline in gold prices is seen as a typical "buy the rumor, sell the news" reaction, but ongoing geopolitical tensions and economic uncertainties may attract new buyers [5] - Notably, gold prices have nearly doubled over the past two years, with a year-to-date increase of nearly 40%, indicating strong demand driven by central bank purchases and diversification away from the dollar [5]

Group 1 - The SEC has approved three exchanges to expedite the listing process for exchange-traded products (ETPs) that hold physical commodities like Bitcoin and gold, aiming to enhance investor choice and promote innovation [1][2] - The U.S. Congress is advancing a Bitcoin Strategic Reserve bill, proposing the purchase of 1 million Bitcoins over the next five years, positioning Bitcoin alongside gold as a national strategic reserve asset [1][2] - The SEC has approved a universal listing standard for commodity-based trust shares, which includes digital assets, allowing eligible products to be listed without individual rule change applications [2][5] Group 2 - The New York State Department of Financial Services (NYDFS) has issued guidance requiring banks to adopt blockchain analysis tools to combat illegal activities such as money laundering and terrorist financing [4][5] - The UK's Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) plans to include crypto asset companies in a comprehensive regulatory framework while exempting some traditional financial rules to better suit the crypto industry's characteristics [3] - Standard Chartered Bank, Qatar National Bank, and DMZ Finance have launched a regulated tokenized money market fund in the Dubai International Financial Centre [3] Group 3 - The supply of Bitcoin on centralized exchanges has reached a seven-year low, indicating significant institutional investment in Bitcoin [4] - Gemini's stock has fallen below its IPO price of $28, with a current market capitalization of $2.9 billion, following a significant drop in share price shortly after its market debut [4] - Bitfinex analysts report that Bitcoin has formed a new resistance level around $116,000, with potential catalysts needed for a price increase [5] Group 4 - The total open interest in BNB contracts has approached $2 billion, marking a new historical high, with Binance leading in contract volume [6]

"历史不会简单重复，但常惊人相似。"这句箴言在观察"白银与标普500指数总回报（SPXTR）的比率"时尤为贴切——这一鲜少 被关注的指标，或许正释放重大信号。 若留心观察，投资者会发现图表上正上演诡异一幕：一个长期技术形态正在重现，与2000年代初白银开启传奇牛市前的走势高 度吻合。 彼时，几乎无人预见行情将至。形态早已成型，默默积蓄力量，但多数投资者因过度关注股市而错失信号。如今，这一比率再 次发出"低语"。 核心问题在于：这次你会倾听吗？ 白银与标普500指数总回报比率 "白银/SPXTR比率"简洁直接地回答一个问题：谁在领跑——贵金属还是美国股市？ 当比率下降时，白银表现落后。这种情况通常出现在增长驱动的牛市中，此时投资者更青睐股息、盈利和风险资产，而非无息 贵金属，股市就会占据主导地位。 但当比率开始回升（尤其是在形成长期底部或收复关键移动平均线后），往往预示更大变局：这不仅是技术性反弹，更是市场 悄悄从股市转向白银等防御性硬资产的信号。重要的是，由于SPXTR包含股息再投资，股市在这一对比中本就具备结构性优 势。因此，比率要上涨，白银必须展现真正的强势，而非单纯的稳定。 从这个角度看，白银/SPXT ...