周观点 迎接红十月，关注 Sora 2 带来的板块效应 点击上方"公众号"可订阅哦！ 兴业证券计算机小组 蒋佳霖/孙乾/杨本鸿/陈鑫/张旭光/杨海盟/桂杨/罗池婧 本周观点聚焦 本周 观 点： 迎接红十月，关注 Sora 2 带来的板块效应 坚定看多计算机行业红十月行情。 正如 9 月最后一期周观点所述，在 AI 的 4 个行业中，计算机行业在 Q3 涨幅相对较低。展望 10 月， AI 大模型持续更新，二十届四 中全会将于 10 月 20 日开幕，计算机行业对技术及政策红利较敏感，有望充分受益。同时，自 2010 年以来，计算机行业在 10 月份取得正向收益的概率为 53% ，位 列所有月份第 4 名。 持续推荐 AI 、国产化及金融科技。 从技术受益方向来看， AI 大模型的迭代在加快，带动算力及应用需求， AI 是最核心主线；从政策受益方向来看， AI 、国产化是 科技自强的重点领域，金融科技与流动性政策密切相关。站在当前的位置，建议重点配置头部公司、边际变化较为显著的赛道领军、以及三季报预期较好且有估值切换 逻辑的公司。 关注 Sora 2 对 AI 板块的信心提振。 在 AI 多模态领域， Open ...

蒋佳霖/孙乾/杨本鸿/陈鑫/张旭光/杨海盟/桂杨/罗池婧 本周观点聚焦 点击上方"公众号"可订阅哦！ 兴业证券计算机小组 1、本周 观 点： 持续战略性加配计算机，挖掘 AI 主线的阿尔法 2、深度跟 踪 ：从阿里云栖大会看国内 AI 产业机会 周观点 持续战略性加配计算机，挖掘 AI 主线的阿尔法 持续战略性加配计算机行业。 截至 9 月 27 日， 25Q3 单季，在以 AI 为主线的 TMT 四个行业中，通信、电子、传媒、计算机的涨幅分别为 49.6% 、 43.6% 、 20.2% 、 14.8% ；自 24Q3 最低点以来，通信、电子、传媒、计算机的最高涨幅分别为 144.8% 、 132.5% 、 101.2% 、 114% 。展望 Q4 ，维持 AI 是主线以及 AI 会内部轮动的判断，计算机有望在 Q4 跑出超额，建议持续加配。 预计 Q3 财报的预期较为平稳。 国庆、中秋双节后，市场对 Q3 财报的关注有望升温。计算机行业的业绩具有较强季节性，其中 Q2 、 Q4 单季占比较高，考虑到上半 年的业绩趋势，以及 Q3 需求端、费用端的状况与上半年较为一致， Q3 业绩预期将较为平稳。可基于 Q ...

AI Computing Series Reports - The rise of domestic AI chips is becoming mainstream, indicating a significant shift in the computing landscape [2] - Major AI companies are expanding their capital expenditures (Capex), leading to accelerated performance in domestic computing [2] - The ecosystem investment opportunities are being dissected from Alibaba's advancements in AI [2] - Huawei's industrial chain opportunities are highlighted ahead of the upcoming Full Connection Conference [2] - The upgrade of large models and applications is accelerating, with a continued positive outlook on the domestic computing chain [2] - Insights from the Volcano Force Original Power Conference reveal the AI ecosystem of major companies [2] - The synergy between industry prosperity and policy dividends continues to resonate within the computing sector [2] - Opportunities in the computing industry are being assessed based on insights from NVIDIA's GTC and major companies' expenditures [2] - The inference computing market space and investment opportunities driven by DeepSeek are explained [2] - A comprehensive analysis of investment opportunities influenced by DeepSeek in cloud computing is provided [2] - The expansion of computing expenditures is accelerating, marking a breakout year for AI agents [2] - The introduction of "thinking chains" by OpenAI o1 is leading to sustained increases in computing demand [2] AI Application Series Reports - Palantir's evolution from a big data giant to an agent benchmark is discussed [3] - The top-level design for AI applications is being implemented, accelerating the commercialization process [3] - Financial reports from overseas giants and the validation of GPT-5 indicate a high level of prosperity in the sector [3] - Major companies are competing vigorously, leading to accelerated growth in AI applications [3] - The evolution of AI glasses is highlighted as a rapidly advancing entry point for edge AI [3] - ByteDance's AI ecosystem is thoroughly explained [3] - The acceleration of large model applications in both domestic and international markets is noted [3] - The domestic AI ecosystem's rapid growth is observed from the WAIC 2025 perspective [3] - The concentrated upgrades of large models are emphasized, with a focus on WAIC 2025 [3] - Data and scenarios are deemed crucial, with large models driving acceleration [3] - The demand for AI learning machines is surging, with a sales peak anticipated [3] - The AI industry is entering a "deep thinking" phase with large models [3] Financial Technology Series Reports - The securities IT sector is experiencing a sustained upward trend, driven by stablecoins initiating a new wave of innovation [4] - The recovery in downstream sectors is ongoing, with Web 3.0 financial innovations accelerating [4] - The stablecoin industry is approaching a policy turning point, with three major beneficiary segments identified [4] - The securities IT sector is expected to continue its upward trajectory, supported by three driving forces [4] - A review of the securities IT sector indicates that the bull market's leading stocks still have room to grow [4] eCall/Smart Vehicle Series Reports - The official release of national standards for eCall is accelerating industry development [4] - The potential market size for eCall is explored in detail [4] - The orderly advancement of the national standard AECS for eCall indicates significant market potential [4] - The momentum of intelligent driving is strong, with expectations for accelerated integration of vehicle-road-cloud systems [4] Trust Innovation Series Reports - The demand for trust innovation is rapidly increasing, with a thriving ecosystem [4] - A retrospective study on trust innovation suggests potential for excess growth [4] - The changing international environment presents growth opportunities for trust innovation [4] - The evolving geopolitical landscape is expected to accelerate industry development [4] - Internal and external factors are resonating, leading to an upward trend in industry prosperity [4] - The most certain direction for advancement in trust innovation is identified [4] - The upcoming release of Harmony OS for PCs is expected to peak ecosystem expansion [4] - The RISC-V open-source ecosystem is rapidly emerging as a domestic alternative [4] - Core software in databases is expected to benefit significantly from the rising prosperity of trust innovation [4] - Huawei's computing industry is poised for accelerated ecosystem development ahead of the Full Connection Conference [4] - Investment opportunities in trust innovation are being assessed based on Intel's business in China [4] Investment Strategy Reports - The mid-term outlook for 2025 emphasizes capitalizing on alpha opportunities, focusing on AI and domestic innovation [5] - The 2025 annual investment strategy highlights technological self-reliance and resilience [5] - The computer industry is experiencing steady recovery, with AI as a core growth engine, as summarized in the mid-year report [5] - The recovery trend is becoming evident, as indicated in the financial report summaries for 2024A and 2025Q1 [5] - The ongoing differentiation in the market suggests a focus on leading companies in improving sectors, as noted in the Q3 2024 report summary [5] - The bottoming out of performance indicates a left-side layout for leading companies in improving sectors, as summarized in the mid-year report for 2024 [5] Key Individual Stock Reports - Unisplendour is positioned as a leader in the ICT stack, serving as a key player in the era of large models [6] - Hengsheng Electronics is entering a new era as a leader in financial technology [6] - Haiguang Information is merging with Zhongke Shuguang to create a domestic chip giant [6] - Weihan Co., Ltd. is experiencing rapid growth in performance, benefiting from the progress of national standards for eCall [6] - Newland's net profit reached a record high in Q1 2025, significantly benefiting from digital payment and identity solutions [6] - Hand Information is enhancing profitability, with agents expected to become a new growth engine [6] - Gallen Electronics is achieving stable revenue growth through a combination of acquisitions and organic development [6] - Compass is realizing high growth in performance while continuously improving its wealth management landscape [6] - Tonghuashun is experiencing rapid growth, with promising prospects for AI and ETF development [6] - Zhongke Shuguang is maintaining stable profit growth while deepening its computing ecosystem [6]

蒋佳霖/孙乾/杨本鸿/陈鑫/张旭光/杨海盟/桂杨/罗池婧 本周观点聚焦 点击上方"公众号"可订阅哦！ 兴业证券计算机小组 1、本周 观 点： 持续聚焦高景气及边际变化，国产算力迎多重催化 2、深度跟 踪 ： 算力：国产 AI 芯片兴起，超节点走向主流 周观点 持续聚焦高景气及边际变化，国产算力迎多重催化 持续聚焦高景气及边际变化。 当前，一方面，高景气赛道具有稀缺性强的特点；同时，流动性环境的持续改善具有较强的确定性，风险偏好有望维持在较高分位。基于 上述市场特征，持续建议重点配置两类资产： 1 ）持续高景气的细分赛道，以 AI 算力、 C 端证券 IT 最为典型； 2 ）强边际变化的细分赛道或者个股，赛道以 AI 应 用、国产化、 B 端金融科技较为典型。 国内外算力产业正持续剧变。 在海外，英伟达宣布将投资英特尔 50 亿美金，发力 CPU+GPU+NPU 的多芯片布局。在国内，继 9 月 13 日海光信息面向全栈产业伙伴 开放 CPU 互联总线之后；华为在其全联接大会上发布了未来三年 昇 腾芯片升级节奏及超节点产品，并将 CANN 编译器和 虛 拟指令集接口开放，其它软件全开源；同 时，摩尔线程科创板 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint emphasizes the continued focus on investing in AI, domestic production, and financial technology due to the rising market risk appetite and expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [1][2][5] - The report highlights the ongoing expansion of capital expenditures (Capex) by major AI companies, indicating a robust demand for computing power infrastructure, as evidenced by Oracle's reported "remaining performance obligations" soaring to $455 billion, a 359% year-on-year increase [1][2][5] - The domestic computing power sector is noted for its low penetration rate and significant growth potential, suggesting a strategic investment opportunity in this area [1][2][5] Group 2 - The upcoming global digital ecosystem conference by Tencent and the Huawei All-Connect Conference are expected to serve as important catalysts for the AI and domestic production sectors [1][2] - The report suggests a proactive investment approach focusing on leading companies within high-growth sectors, particularly in AI and financial technology [1][2][5] - The overall sentiment indicates a bullish outlook on the computing power industry, driven by substantial contracts with major players like OpenAI and xAI, which further enhances the industry's attractiveness [1][2][5]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates a steady improvement in industry prosperity, with AI as the central engine driving growth [2] - In H1 2025, the sector achieved operating revenue of 932.15 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 20.25%, with a median revenue growth rate of 3.72% [2] - The net profit attributable to shareholders reached 18.744 billion yuan, up 40.48% year-on-year, with a significant improvement in profitability [2] Group 2 - In Q2 2025, the sector's operating revenue was 506.26 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 18.53%, with nearly 60% of companies reporting positive growth [3] - The net profit attributable to shareholders for Q2 2025 was 13.15 billion yuan, a 36.13% increase year-on-year, driven by improved revenue growth and management efficiency [3] Group 3 - In the AI segment, revenue growth reached 39.94% in H1 2025, driven by increasing demand for computing power and accelerated application of AI technologies [4] - In the financial technology sector, C-end performance saw significant growth, while B-end opportunities are gradually improving [4] - The self-security sector is entering a new upward cycle, with network security showing signs of stabilization [4]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint emphasizes the importance of strategically investing in high-quality leading companies during market dips, particularly in the AI and fintech sectors, as the market shows signs of adjustment and potential for valuation expansion [1][2] - The report highlights the recent advancements in AI models, noting that Alibaba has launched the Qwen3-Max-Preview model, which has over one trillion parameters, marking it as the largest model to date. Other companies like Meituan and Deepseek are also making significant strides in AI model development [1][2] Group 2 - The report provides a deep dive into Alibaba's AI ecosystem, analyzing investment opportunities within its ecosystem and the broader implications for the AI industry [2]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article emphasizes that the mid-year reports validate a continuous recovery in performance, suggesting an increase in investment in AI applications and domestic production [1][2] - The mid-year reports show that the computer industry's revenue, net profit attributable to the parent company, and net profit excluding non-recurring gains and losses have median year-on-year growth rates of 3.17%, 7.6%, and 6.28% respectively, continuing the recovery trend observed in Q1 2025 [1][2] - The article suggests that during the performance disclosure window, sectors with superior growth rates, such as computing power and internet brokerage, are favored, and recommends increasing allocation to AI applications and domestic production due to their high elasticity and improving market conditions [1][2] Group 2 - Alibaba's latest financial report indicates a significant increase in confidence in computing power, with cloud revenue growing by 26% year-on-year, and capital expenditures reaching 38.7 billion yuan, a 220% increase [2] - Alibaba plans to invest 380 billion yuan in AI capital expenditures over the next three years and has prepared backup plans for global AI chip supply and policy changes [2]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint emphasizes increasing positions in leading technology stocks and focusing on the domestic computing power chain [1] - The upcoming half-year performance disclosures are expected to highlight the advantages of leading companies in the sector, benefiting from the domestic technology industry's growth [1] - The report anticipates that September will bring significant events, with a focus on technological self-reliance and the rise of innovation, particularly in the computing sector [1] Group 2 - Deepseek has released version V3.1, which is designed for the next generation of domestic chips, enhancing the domestic chip ecosystem [1] - Recent advancements in the performance and development ecosystem of new domestic AI chips indicate significant growth potential for leading companies in this space [1] - The report recommends focusing on the domestic computing power industry chain for investment opportunities [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint emphasizes selecting leading companies in high-growth sectors, particularly in AI and fintech, and suggests continuing to invest in these areas [1] - The market's trading volume continues to increase, indicating a rising risk appetite, and it is recommended to focus on core leading companies in sectors experiencing upward trends [1] - Tencent's latest financial report shows accelerated commercialization of AI, with a 119% year-on-year increase in capital expenditure in Q2, suggesting ongoing investment opportunities in the AI industry [1] Group 2 - The fintech sector is experiencing an upward trend, and increasing trading volumes are expected to boost the downstream demand, enhancing the fundamentals of the sector [1] - Historical analysis indicates that fintech companies tend to perform strongly during market uptrends, suggesting a focus on aggressive leading companies in this sector [1]