水皮杂谈 一家之言 兼听则明 偏听则暗 功败垂成 盘面消息 今天 摩尔线程再度暴涨，收盘报 941.08 元 /股 ，创全天最高价，涨幅达 28.04%，总市 值已升至 4423 亿元。相较于上市后556 元 /股 的最低价，当前股价近乎翻倍；若对比 114 元 /股 的发行价，涨幅更为惊人。 作为仍处于亏损状态的个股，摩尔线程为何能遭到爆炒？核心原因有三： 其一， 2025 年科技股炒作中涌现 "市标率" 新概念。所谓 " 市标率 " ，是将国内相关科技 股与美国同类标的对标，核心并非比较估值，而是 比较市值 ， 所以出现了 "市标率" 这一概 念 。 既然寒武纪可与英伟达对标， 为什么 摩尔线程与寒武纪 不能做对比呢？所以，这实际 是 "市标率" 在国内同类股票之中的一个应用。 今天 寒武纪下跌 2.73%，收盘价 1382 元 /股 ，市值 5828 亿元，摩尔线程与寒武纪的市 值差距并非遥不可及，甚至存在超越可能。 其二，国产 GPU "四小龙" 相关标的上市进程持续推进。其中，沐曦股份预计下周上市，有 望吸引炒新资金聚焦；后续还有燧原科技、璧仞科技等公司排队上市，意味着相关概念题材的 炒作尚未进入尾 ...

" 醉里挑灯看剑，梦回吹角连营 " ， 观 今天 盘面， 水皮 脑中不禁浮现辛弃疾《破阵子》中的这两句。 股市如战场，多空双方博弈厮杀、你来我往，胜败往往在转 念 之间。而 今天 力挽狂澜、挽救大盘的，出人意料竟是房地产板块。 午后 13 点 13 分，万科率先启动拉升，不过初期并未扭转盘面颓势，大盘仍在持续探底。直至 13 点 25 分，万科发起第三波拉升时，中信 证券与东方财富同步发力，带动整个券商板块集体走强，进而联动房地产板块协同向上。两大板块交替发力，共同将指数推向相对高点。 水皮杂谈 一家之言 兼听则明 偏听则暗 力不从心 盘面消息 A股三大指数今日涨跌不一，截止收盘，沪指跌0.23%，收报3900.50点；深证成指涨0.29%，收报13316.42点；创业板指跌0.02%，收 报3209.00点。 沪深两市成交额17785亿，较昨日缩量1254亿。 老水看盘 房地产板块盘中一度下跌 0.75% ，随后最高冲高至 2.2% ，日内震荡幅度接近 3% ，最终收盘涨幅回落至 1.5% 左右；券商板块盘中最低 下跌约 0.25% ，之后快速拉升至 0.76% ，收盘回落至 0.58% 。作为此次行情的始 ...

水皮杂谈 一家之言 兼听则明 偏听则暗 吹灯拔蜡 盘面消息 A股三大指数今日涨跌不一，截止收盘，沪指跌0.37%，收报3909.52点；深证成指跌 0.39%，收报13277.36点；创业板指涨0.61%，收报3209.60点。 沪深两市成交额达到 19040亿，较昨日缩量1327亿。 老水看盘 一颗红心两手准备。 什么是两手准备？所谓两手准备就是打得赢就打，打不赢就跑。 今天 市场高点出现在上午 10 点 04 分，此为科技股 " 八大金刚 " 第一波拉升的目标位。 市场所指的 " 八大金刚 " ，在深市的核心标的为 "易中天胜" ，在沪市则是 " 纪 联 海中 " 。彼时深成指涨幅一度达到 0.5% ，而上证指数表现逊色不少，全天高点仅触及 3923.90 点，未能回补跳空缺口，也未实现翻红。 金融股 今天 再度承担护盘职责。 10 点前，中信证券率先被拉升，股价从 28.52 元 / 股 快速冲高至 28.83 元 / 股 ，盘中拉升幅度接近 1% ，但尾盘回落至 28.52 元 / 股 ，最 终全天录得 0.59% 的跌幅；证券板块整体跌幅更大，达到 1.4% 左右。 10 点至 10 点半这半小时内 ...

添油加醋 盘面消息 A股三大指数今日集体收涨，沪指涨0.54%，收报3924.08点；深证成指涨1.39%，收报 13329.99点；创业板指涨2.60%，收报3190.27点。 沪深两市成交额达到20366亿，较上 一交易日大幅放量3109亿。 水皮杂谈 一家之言 兼听则明 偏听则暗 老水看盘 今天两大利好政策可总结为三个字 ——"上杠杆"。 其一利好来自金融监管总局，其下调了保险资金投资沪深 300 成分股及相关 ETF 等蓝筹股 的风险因子，从 0.3 降至 0.27，这一调整实质是释放了保险资金的可投资额度，经测算规模 或达千亿元左右，属于实打实的市场利好。其二利好为证监会提出将为优质券商拓宽资本空 间、放开杠杆限制，换句话来讲就是可以适度"上杠杆"。尽管未明确具体指标，但明确了券商 适度加杠杆的政策方向，该政策的象征意义相对更强。 上述两项政策均剑指入市资金问题。不难看出，管理层对市场资金工具的运用具备清晰认知， 在增量资金有限的背景下，选择从存量资金中挖潜 —— 无论是保险资金还是券商资金，均为 场内已有的资金储备，市场对此也是心领神会。 今天开盘后， A 股指数整体呈现高开高走局面，其中券商板块 ...

水皮杂谈 一家之言 兼听则明 偏听则暗 多头不死 盘面消息 A股三大指数今日集体走强，截止收盘，沪指涨0.70%，收报3902.81点；深证成指涨 1.08%，收报13147.68点；创业板指涨1.36%，收报3109.30点。 沪深两市成交额达到 17258亿，较昨日放量1768亿。 老水看盘 值得注意的是，大金融 虽然在指数上涨过程中做了贡献，但 阵营内部的银行股， 今天 反而 处于跌幅榜前列 ，所以说，金融出现明显的分化 。 成交量方面， 今天 全天成交额较上午出现显著放量，整体增量近 2000 亿，一定程度上为指 数上行提供了资金支撑。但从总量来看，放量力度仍相对有限，昨 天 成交额为 1.55 万亿， 今天 增至 1.73 万亿左右，这样的量能支撑短期反弹不成问题，但其能否延续还需打个问 号。 今天 主力资金净流入超百亿，这一现象实属难得。究其原因，是 因为今天 有一只万众瞩目的 新股上市 —— 摩尔线程，其发行价 114.28 元 / 股 ，开盘价便冲高至 650 元 / 股 ，盘 中最高价触及 688 元 / 股 ，最终收于 600.50 元 / 股 ，对应总市值已突破三千亿。市场 常将其与寒武 ...

Core Viewpoint - The market is experiencing a "virtual strength welcoming new" phenomenon, where the performance of major indices is misleading due to the influence of a few key stocks, particularly "Ning Wang" (CATL) and "Han Wang" (Cambricon) [4][7]. Market Performance - The three major A-share indices showed mixed results, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 0.06% at 3875.79 points, the Shenzhen Component Index up 0.40% at 13006.72 points, and the ChiNext Index up 1.01% at 3067.48 points [3]. - The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets was 15.49 trillion, a decrease of 121 billion from the previous day [3]. Index Discrepancies - The degree of index distortion has reached an extreme level, with significant performance differences among indices. The Sci-Tech 50 Index rose approximately 1.53%, while the ChiNext Index also saw around a 1% increase [4]. - The notable performance of key stocks, particularly Cambricon and CATL, has had a decisive impact on the indices, with both stocks rising nearly 2% [4]. Overall Market Sentiment - Despite the gains of a few key stocks, the majority of individual stocks performed poorly, with over 4,000 stocks declining during the day and only about 1,400 stocks rising [5]. - The market sentiment was somewhat uplifted by the securities sector, which saw a rally, although the overall number of stocks hitting their daily limit down was concerning, with 26 stocks reaching the limit down compared to only 40 stocks hitting the limit up [6]. Future Outlook - The upcoming listing of new stocks, particularly Moer Thread and Muxi Co., is expected to attract active capital, potentially leading to a "blood-sucking effect" on other stocks and suppressing overall market performance [6]. - The market is likely to continue facing adjustment pressures, as the indices are being "hijacked" by a few key stocks, making it difficult to reflect the true overall market condition [6][7].

Market Overview - The A-share market experienced a collective pullback, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 0.51% closing at 3878.00 points, the Shenzhen Component down 0.78% at 12955.25 points, and the ChiNext Index down 1.12% at 3036.79 points [2] - The trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets reached 1.67 trillion, an increase of 76.5 billion compared to the previous day [2] Market Dynamics - The behavior of major players in the market, particularly in lifting bank stocks, is questioned as it may lead to panic among investors due to the perception of "pump and dump" strategies [3] - Despite a brief rise in bank stocks, they ultimately fell by approximately 0.6%, reflecting a broader market decline where around 3800 stocks were down and only about 1400 were up [3] - The median decline for individual stocks was 0.9%, indicating that most investors faced losses during the trading session [3] Sector Performance - Strong performance was noted in the coal and electricity sectors, while TMT (Technology, Media, and Telecommunications) and new energy stocks showed weakness [4] - Key stocks like CATL and Cambricon Technologies struggled to support the index, with CATL down about 1% [4] - The Hong Kong market, which has not been heavily intervened, showed a more natural adjustment process, with the Hang Seng Index and Hang Seng Tech Index both down over 1% [4] Securities Sector - Major players in the securities sector, including CITIC Securities and East Money, experienced significant downward movements, indicating a bearish sentiment in the market [5] - The performance of the securities sector, often seen as a barometer for market trends, suggests that investors should be cautious about the timing and extent of market adjustments [5]

A股三大指数今日集体回调，截止收盘，沪指跌0.42%，收报3897.71点；深证成指跌 0.68%，收报13056.70点；创业板指跌0.69%，收报3071.15点。 沪深两市成交额15934 亿，较昨日缩量2805亿。 老水看盘 怕他不来，又怕他乱来。 当前市场心态极为复杂， 当指数缩量反弹的时候，大家就担忧 量能不足导致反弹难持续；而 一旦放量，又担心获利盘回吐引发反弹夭折。 今天 市场便呈现这一特征， 3900 点得而复 失， 昨 天 3000 亿的成交量 今天 大幅萎缩，指数重回弱势格局。 指数回落之外，成交量已成为判断市场情绪的核心指标。 今天 成交量虽与前天基本持平，但 结构差异显著：深 证 市场小幅放量约 200 亿，上 证 市场则较前天再缩量 200 亿，延续缩 量态势。这一现象让地量何时出现的判断陷入困惑，也使得指数表现愈发纠结。 水皮杂谈 一家之言 兼听则明 偏听则暗 心猿意马 盘面消息 一句话点评：心猿意马。 编辑：柴多多 排版：刘雪影 个股表现与指数走势基本一致。 今天 下跌个股达 3531 家，上涨个股仅 1534 家，中位数 跌幅 0.76% ，显著大于上证指数 0.42% 和深 ...

水皮杂谈 一家之言 兼听则明 偏听则暗 盘面消息 A股三大指数今日集体上涨，沪指收复3900点整数关口。截止收盘，沪指涨0.65%，收报 3914.01点；深证成指涨1.25%，收报13146.72点；创业板指涨1.31%，收报3092.50 点。 沪深两市成交额达到18739亿，较上一交易日放量2881亿。 老水看盘 开门红，今天市场给大家的回馈还是不错的， 市场表现亮眼且呈现相对独立行情。 为何如此定义？纵观 今天 亚太市场，日经指数跌幅约 1.9% ，韩国指数、澳大利亚指数均同 步下跌；香港恒生指数盘中震荡明显，午盘时段波动加剧；白天交易的美国三大股指期货同样 表现疲软，纳斯达克指数跌幅接近 1% 。在此背景下， A 股未受明显拖累，开盘后在银行股 与证券股的快速拉升下完成探底回升，全天保持相对强势，尾盘最后一小时，银行股与证券股 再度发力，稳稳守住上涨成果。 从指数贡献来看，对上证 指数 支撑作用显著的包括 " 三桶油 " 及 "寒王"—— 寒武纪；而 对深 证 市场指数影响较大的则是 "易中天" 与 "宁王"—— 宁德时代。 " 两王 " 携手，叠 加传统权重 " 三桶油 " 与 目前权重 "易中天 ...

Market Overview - The three major A-share indices collectively rose today, with the Shanghai Composite Index up 0.34% closing at 3888.60 points, the Shenzhen Component Index up 0.85% at 12984.08 points, and the ChiNext Index up 0.70% at 3052.59 points [2] - The trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets was only 158.58 billion, a decrease of 124 billion from the previous day [3] Market Dynamics - Despite the positive index performance, there is a concern regarding insufficient volume to support the upward trend, as today's trading volume shrank to 1.58 trillion, failing to break through 1.6 trillion [3] - The market experienced a "step back" pattern, with significant upward movement concentrated before the morning close, followed by a consolidation phase in the afternoon [3] - Key stocks like Ningde Times and the brokerage sector, particularly CITIC Securities, played a crucial role in driving the indices higher [3][4] Sector Performance - The semiconductor sector showed strength, with stocks like Cambrian Technology experiencing significant price movements, rising from a drop of 1.6% to an increase of 2.08%, reaching a peak of 1347 yuan per share [6] - The battery sector, led by Ningde Times, was one of the strongest performing sectors of the day, contributing to the overall market strength [6] - The median increase in individual stock prices was 0.98%, with a rare net inflow of 8 billion in capital, although this amount is still considered low compared to typical outflows [6] Notable Events - Vanke, facing debt issues, saw its stock price drop to a new low of 5.27 yuan per share, with a maximum decline of 3.47%, although the overall real estate sector rose by 1.1% [7] - The robotics sector is under scrutiny due to warnings from the National Development and Reform Commission about issues of redundancy and low industry quality, with over half of the 150 domestic manufacturers facing these challenges [7] Hong Kong Market - The Hang Seng Index opened high but fluctuated downwards, failing to close in the green, with a trading volume of only 140 billion HKD, indicating a cautious attitude among investors [7]