5月17日-18日 2025清华五道口全球金融论坛 于深圳盛大召开 汇聚国内外金融界 领袖、学者及行业精英 浓缩思维干货 定位思维坐标 主题三：全球经济碎片化的挑战 主题四：粤港澳大湾区建设与发展 这两场的嘉宾金句干货已打包完毕 快查收↓↓↓ 主题讨论三 全球经济碎片化的挑战 张晓燕 清华大学五道口金融学院 副院长、讲席教授 海拉特・克里姆别托夫 哈萨克斯坦前副总理 哈萨克斯坦央行前行长 鲍里斯・武伊契奇 克罗地亚国家银行行长 欧阳卫民 中国金融学会副会长 国家开发银行原行长 鲁里埃尔・鲁比尼 纽约大学斯特恩商学院荣休教授 主题讨论四 粤港澳大湾区建设与发展 张伟 清华大学五道口金融学院院长助理 时卫干 深圳市委金融委员会办公室常务副主任 市委金融工作委员会常务副书记 市地方金融管理局局长 陈维民, JP 香港金融管理局副总裁 金融学院副主席 王春新 香港特别行政区特首政策组副组长 朱军林 澳门金融管理局顾问 李杰峰 香港中小上市公司协会会长 捷克JKL投资有限公司董事长 编辑丨兰银帆 审核 | 王晗 来源丨清华五道口 ...

Core Viewpoint - The formulation and implementation of the "15th Five-Year Plan" is crucial for advancing China's modernization and fulfilling the strategic deployments of the 20th National Congress of the Communist Party of China [4]. Group 1: Planning and Decision-Making - Emphasis on scientific, democratic, and legal decision-making processes in the planning of the "15th Five-Year Plan" [3][4]. - The need for top-level design and public consultation to gather diverse opinions and experiences from the populace [4]. Group 2: Economic Context and Challenges - The "15th Five-Year Plan" period is seen as a critical transitional phase for achieving socialist modernization by 2035, facing both strategic opportunities and risks [7][8]. - Key economic issues to consider during planning include growth, demand, and supply [7]. Group 3: High-Quality Development - The importance of high-quality development and the need to upgrade supply, demand, and efficiency structures to achieve effective qualitative and reasonable quantitative economic growth [8][9]. - The role of technological innovation and new industries, such as AI and biotechnology, in driving future growth [8]. Group 4: Urban-Rural Integration - Urban-rural integration is highlighted as a necessary requirement for modernization, aiming to enhance planning, construction, and governance at both urban and rural levels [9]. Group 5: Macroeconomic Governance - The necessity for improved macroeconomic governance and policy consistency in response to changing external conditions and internal economic demands [11][12]. - The ongoing evolution of fiscal policy since 2008, with a focus on optimizing its effectiveness for growth and risk management [12]. Group 6: Trust Industry Development - The trust industry is encouraged to focus on high-quality development paths and align its strategies with the broader goals of China's modernization [13].

Core Viewpoint - The conference emphasized the importance of financial security as a critical component of national security and economic stability, highlighting the need for a long-term, systematic approach to strengthen financial safety measures in the face of evolving risks [4][5]. Group 1: Financial Security Importance - Financial is described as the lifeblood of the national economy and a key part of the country's core competitiveness [4]. - The stability and efficient operation of the financial system are crucial for resource allocation, economic innovation, and serving the real economy [4]. - Any instability in the financial system can rapidly affect the real economy, disrupting national economic order and social stability [4]. Group 2: Current Challenges - Experts noted that China's financial security faces unprecedented complexities, including the accumulation of traditional financial risks and the emergence of new risks, particularly due to the dual-edged effects of rapid financial technology development [5]. - There is a call for a "bottom-line thinking" approach, reinforcing a "systemic perspective," and building a "multi-party collaborative" financial security defense [5]. Group 3: Conference Outcomes - The successful hosting of the conference provided a high-level platform for in-depth communication and consensus-building, positively impacting the enhancement of China's financial security and the prevention of systemic financial risks [8].

Core Viewpoint - The 2025 Tsinghua Wudaokou Global Financial Forum was held in Shenzhen, gathering leaders, scholars, and industry elites from the financial sector to discuss future-oriented global monetary systems and international trade and investment under new circumstances [1]. Group 1: Global Monetary System - The forum featured discussions on the future of the global monetary system, emphasizing the need for a restructured Bretton Woods system [10]. - Key speakers included influential figures such as Mark Uzan, Executive Director and Founder of the Bretton Woods Committee, and Marek Belka, former Prime Minister of Poland [6][10]. Group 2: International Trade and Investment - The second theme focused on international trade and investment in the context of new global conditions, with insights from experts like Tian Xuan, Director of the National Financial Research Institute at Tsinghua University [19][20]. - Notable participants included Hu Xiaolian, former Chairman of the Export-Import Bank of China, and Li Nan, Director of the Investment and Enterprise Division at UNCTAD [22][24].

Core Viewpoint - The forum discussed the need for a restructured global financial system in the face of rising geopolitical uncertainties and the importance of multilateralism to address global challenges [5][10][12]. Group 1: Global Financial Cooperation - The forum featured discussions among experts on the importance of multilateralism and the need for a diversified global financial order to address current challenges [3][5]. - Lord Mark Malloch-Brown emphasized the crisis in international order due to unilateral actions by the U.S. and the need for countries like China and Europe to actively promote multilateralism [5]. - Erik Berglof highlighted the necessity for a new multilateralism that reflects the current geopolitical landscape, advocating for cooperation between Europe and developing countries [8]. Group 2: Economic Imbalances and Domestic Demand - Professor Shi Kang pointed out that addressing global economic imbalances requires multilateral coordination and that China should focus on domestic demand rather than relying solely on external markets [10]. - The need for China to stimulate domestic consumption and create demand was emphasized as a key task for 2025, alongside the importance of economic reforms and industry upgrades [10]. Group 3: Currency Dynamics and Financial Stability - Massimiliano Castelli discussed the potential for the euro and renminbi to gain prominence as global reserve currencies, while the dollar remains the primary safe-haven asset [12]. - The discussion included the gradual reduction of dollar asset holdings by global central banks and institutional investors, indicating a shift in currency dynamics [12]. - Marc Uzan stressed the importance of regional cooperation and the establishment of new rules in rebuilding the international financial system [15].

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the need for a multilateral trade system supported by major economies like Europe and China, as trade wars are mutually harmful and must be corrected [1][9]. Trade War and Global Economy - Trade wars are detrimental, and the current U.S. administration's approach is primarily bilateral, particularly with China, which accounts for 13% of U.S. imports and 15% of China's exports [5][6]. - The temporary suspension of certain tariffs has positively impacted global markets, indicating a potential shift towards more cooperative trade negotiations [4][5]. - The U.S. economy, which constitutes 25% of the global economy, is experiencing negative effects from trade tensions, leading to decreased consumer confidence [5][6]. Monetary Policy and Economic Stability - The Federal Reserve's monetary policy is a source of uncertainty, with its primary focus on managing employment and inflation [5][6]. - There is a possibility of easing cost pressures through negotiations, which could help stabilize the economy and mitigate inflation concerns [6][7]. - The Fed's response to economic changes will be crucial in maintaining economic health without triggering excessive inflation [6][7]. Future of Global Trade Systems - The article outlines three potential scenarios for the future of global trade: 1. Countries acting independently, which is unlikely due to historical failures [7]. 2. Major powers exerting influence, which may not be sustainable as emerging markets prefer balanced relations with both the U.S. and China [7]. 3. A multilateral system supported by Europe, China, and other emerging markets, which is deemed the most likely outcome [7][8]. AI Development and Global Impact - The rapid advancement of AI technology is highlighted, with significant developments in both the U.S. and China, narrowing the gap between the two nations [11][12]. - The emergence of open-source AI models and smaller models is making AI more accessible and cost-effective, positively impacting global economies [11][12]. - The integration of AI in various sectors, including healthcare and environmental predictions, is expected to drive innovation and productivity [13][14]. Education and AI Integration - The article discusses the importance of incorporating AI into education, emphasizing its potential as a research tool rather than a means for academic dishonesty [15][16]. - The need for educational institutions to adapt to the evolving landscape of AI and maintain global collaborations is stressed, particularly in light of changing international relations [17][18].

Core Viewpoint - The 2025 Tsinghua Wudaokou Global Finance Forum emphasizes the importance of building an open and inclusive economic and financial system in the context of a rapidly changing global landscape and economic slowdown [5][10]. Group 1: Forum Overview - The forum is held in Shenzhen for the first time, themed "Sharing the Future: Building an Open and Inclusive Economic and Financial System," aiming to create a high-level dialogue platform for global political, academic, and business elites [5][10]. - Tsinghua Wudaokou Financial School, established in 2012, has evolved from the People's Bank of China Graduate School, becoming a leading platform for financial talent cultivation and research in China [4][10]. Group 2: Global Economic Context - The world is experiencing significant changes, with increasing fragmentation and rising uncertainties, leading to structural challenges and risks in global economic growth [10]. - China is transitioning from a follower of global governance rules to a reformer of systems, advocating for true multilateralism and actively participating in global economic governance [10]. Group 3: Financial Development Initiatives - The Chinese government has identified five key areas for financial development: technology finance, green finance, inclusive finance, pension finance, and digital finance, which are seen as new drivers for high-quality financial development [10][11]. - The forum aims to gather insights and foster consensus among participants to contribute innovative solutions for the future of finance [11].

Core Viewpoint - The 2025 Tsinghua Wudaokou Global Financial Forum emphasizes the importance of building an open and inclusive economic and financial system in the face of global uncertainties and challenges [6][7]. Group 1: Opening Ceremony Highlights - The forum was inaugurated by notable figures including Zhou Xiaochuan, former Governor of the People's Bank of China, and Marek Belka, former Prime Minister of Poland, who delivered keynote speeches [2][11]. - Guo Yong, Deputy Secretary of Tsinghua University, highlighted China's role in providing stability to the global economy through high-quality development and financial strength [5]. - The forum aims to foster global economic and financial cooperation and sustainable development by gathering elite representatives from politics, business, and academia [7][15]. Group 2: Key Themes and Discussions - The forum's theme, "Sharing the Future: Building an Open and Inclusive Economic and Financial System," reflects the need for structural reforms and new productive forces in China [6][7]. - Marek Belka pointed out the imbalances and instabilities in the global economy, particularly in the U.S., and emphasized the need for Europe to adapt to these challenges [11]. - Michael Spence discussed the necessity of correcting trade wars and the potential for establishing a multilateral trade system supported by major emerging economies [12]. Group 3: Forum Structure and Participation - The forum spans two days (May 17-18, 2025) and includes 13 thematic discussion sessions and 2 closed-door meetings [15]. - Nearly a hundred high-level political and economic leaders and experts are participating to explore topics such as the global monetary system, international trade and investment, and the challenges of economic fragmentation [15].

2025年5月17日上午，2025清华五道口全球金融论坛在广东省深圳市盛大开幕。 波兰前总理马雷克·贝尔卡出席开幕式并发表主旨演讲。他指出，从全球视角看，世 界面临新局势、新变化，全球面临的最大挑战是不平衡、不稳定，尤其是美国社会 和经济结构出现了很大的不平衡。究其原因，美国慢性贸易赤字来自国内经济的不 平衡，特别是美国民众的低储蓄率以及消费型经济所致，因此美国推出的关税并不 会带来太多帮助。 他表示，从欧洲视角看，欧洲在不稳定的世界里显得更加脆弱。应对这些挑战，一 方面，欧洲需要直面美国新政府带来的挑战，利用好关税同盟的内部优势；另一方 面，欧洲应允许市场进行多样化调整。 在他看来，中国已成为全球科技的重要制造 者和出口者，新形势下，欧洲公司希望可以更多地进入中国市场。 图为马雷克·贝尔卡 以下为马雷克·贝尔卡在论坛上的发言： 女士们、先生们上午好，非常感谢各位能够来到这个卓越的论坛，非常荣幸能够有机会来到中国与国内 外重量级嘉宾共聚一堂，探讨全球范围内非常重量级的大事。 就接下来要讨论的内容，我会从欧洲视角下提供一些观点。当然，每次谈到国际大事的时候必须从美国 谈起，同时不得不提到美国的新政府，因为这给全 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent financial policies implemented in China, particularly the "5·07" incremental policy, which aims to stabilize the market and expectations amid external uncertainties and economic transitions. The response from the financial markets, especially the A-share market, has been more restrained compared to the previous "9·24" policy [1][4]. Summary by Sections Financial Policy Overview - On May 7, China announced a comprehensive set of financial policies to stabilize the market, which included a 0.1 percentage point reduction in policy rates and a 0.5 percentage point cut in the reserve requirement ratio [4][9]. - The "5·07" policy is characterized by its broad scope, multiple measures, and rapid implementation, comparable to or exceeding the "9·24" policy [2][4]. Market Reactions - Following the "9·24" policy, the Shanghai Composite Index experienced a significant rally, gaining 27% over a two-week period. In contrast, the response to the "5·07" policy was more muted, with only a 2% increase over three trading days [4][6]. - The market's restrained reaction to the "5·07" policy is attributed to the fact that many of the measures were anticipated by investors [4][6]. Economic Context - The article highlights the ongoing economic challenges, including a decline in the GDP deflator index and a prolonged decrease in the Producer Price Index (PPI), which has raised concerns about the effectiveness of monetary policy [9][10]. - The need for a balance between supporting the real economy and maintaining the health of the banking system is emphasized, as low interest rates face constraints from insufficient market demand and bank credit supply [11][12]. Fiscal Policy Measures - The article outlines the government's commitment to a more proactive fiscal policy, with a projected deficit rate of around 4% and an increase in new government debt to support economic stability [13][15]. - Specific measures include enhancing financial support for foreign trade enterprises affected by tariffs and promoting domestic consumption [14][15]. Trade and External Relations - Despite challenges in exports to the U.S., overall Chinese exports have shown resilience, with significant growth in exports to non-U.S. markets [16]. - The article suggests that ongoing trade negotiations between China and the U.S. may lead to a reduction in tariffs, which could further support economic stability [16].