Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes that the pricing logic of gold fundamentally returns to one point: demand, highlighting the complexity of gold's pricing framework due to its diverse demand composition across different economic cycles [5][6]. Group 1: Gold Price Trends - Since late April, the gold price has broken a prolonged stagnation, with spot gold reaching a historical high of $3,674.78 on September 9, marking an increase of over $1,000 per ounce and a year-to-date rise of 40% [3][5]. - The surge in gold prices since 2022 is attributed to geopolitical factors, particularly the Russia-Ukraine conflict, which initiated a unique central bank gold purchasing trend [5][6]. Group 2: Future Gold Demand - The trend of central banks purchasing gold is expected to continue into 2023 and 2024, with emerging market investors from countries like China and India contributing significantly to physical gold demand [5][6]. - The marginal pricing of gold in 2024 will be influenced by factors such as deflation in China and the reshaping of Asian supply chains, which will have economic spillover effects [5][6]. Group 3: Investment Strategy and Risk-Return Profile - Gold's unique risk-return characteristics allow it to optimize the risk-adjusted returns of investment portfolios, making it a strategic asset in various macroeconomic scenarios [17][20]. - A quantitative framework is proposed to determine the optimal allocation of gold in multi-asset portfolios, with a suggested minimum allocation of 6% and a maximum of 7.7% to maintain a balance between risk and return [22][23]. Group 4: Economic and Financial Factors - Gold's long-term price dynamics are influenced by both economic factors (like GDP growth) and financial factors (global investment portfolios), reflecting its dual nature as both a consumption and investment asset [19][20]. - Historical data shows that gold has a lower correlation with major asset classes, which aids in diversifying investment portfolio risks [20][21]. Group 5: Geopolitical and Market Dynamics - Recent geopolitical tensions, such as the Israel-Iran conflict, have not significantly impacted gold prices, indicating that gold's pricing is not solely driven by geopolitical events [27][28]. - The article suggests that the market's focus may shift towards "recession trades" and liquidity easing as key drivers for gold prices in the latter half of the year [29].

文/ 《清华金融评论》 王茅 黄 金 期 货 近 期 创 下 370 0 美 元 的 历 史 新 高 ， 推 动 力 量 包 括 美 联 储 降 息 前 景、特朗普威胁对俄罗斯展开新一轮制裁，以及国际黄金协会计划推出挂 钩黄金的数字货币。影响黄金长期走势的则包括4大因素，分别为美元走 势、美国实际利率、市场风险偏好、央行购买黄金。观察黄金未来走势， 就要看这4大因素是否发生变化。 近期金价创 纪 录新高的3个原因 北京时间 9月9日 晚 ，在美国劳工部 公布大幅下修就业数据前，纽约黄金期货 价格 大涨，突破了 3700美元 /盎司 ， 创下 史无前例的纪录高位，在突破 这一历史性点位之后，黄金期货价格随即出现了回落。 本次金价又创新高，直接原因在于， 美国财长贝森特此前预警称，年度非农就业数据可能下修多达 80万，这加剧了市场对美国经济状况的担忧。而后金 价有所回落也属正常， 毕竟短期内金价涨得太过猛烈，需要进行整固。 事实上，美国劳工统计局报告显示，对 2025年3月之前年度非农就业数据的修正值较初值减少了91.1万个岗位，比 贝森特提到的数据还要差，但由于他给 市场提前打了 "预防针"，减少了市场的大幅震 ...

Core Viewpoint - The relationship between population aging and debt has become a focal point at the Jackson Hole Global Central Bank Conference, highlighting that global aging increases fiscal burdens and expands demand for debt assets, creating a "high debt - low interest rate" equilibrium. However, this equilibrium is fragile and not solely determined by demographic factors, as it also depends on interest rate sensitivity to debt, international capital flows, and political stability [2][4][7]. Group 1: Aging Population and Debt Dynamics - The aging population leads to significant increases in fiscal spending, including rising pension payments and healthcare costs, which contribute to persistent fiscal deficits and an upward trend in government debt [4][5]. - Aging not only raises government fiscal burdens but also expands societal demand for safe, long-term investment tools, such as government bonds, allowing governments to issue large amounts of debt at very low interest rates [5][6]. - The political landscape shifts towards older voters, making it more challenging to implement tax increases or spending cuts, resulting in a tendency for governments to opt for "more borrowing" rather than "spending less" [5][6]. Group 2: Fragility of the Current Equilibrium - Despite the apparent sustainability of the "high debt - low interest rate" equilibrium, its fragility is underscored by factors such as interest rate sensitivity to debt, global capital market demand, and political stability [7][8]. - The estimated Debt Sensitivity to Interest Rate (DSIR) is around 0.5 basis points, suggesting that a significant increase in debt-to-GDP ratios could lead to a more pronounced rise in interest rates, potentially worsening fiscal outlooks [7][8]. - Global demand for U.S. Treasury bonds may not remain constant, as geopolitical tensions and the emergence of alternative reserve currencies could weaken reliance on U.S. debt, exposing vulnerabilities in debt sustainability [8]. Group 3: Long-term Solutions - The long-term solution lies in structural fiscal reforms and productivity enhancements, as the current equilibrium, while providing short-term stability, poses long-term risks [12][14]. - Initiating structural fiscal adjustments can help stabilize market confidence and prevent debt expectations from spiraling out of control, while investments in technology, education, and labor market reforms are essential for boosting productivity [14]. - Future monetary policy may need to navigate complex trade-offs among inflation, employment, and fiscal constraints, with central banks facing greater discretion and associated credibility risks [14].

Core Viewpoint - The initial rights definition and minimization of transaction costs are prerequisites for establishing a unified national data factor market, which will drive the industrialization and fair pricing of data factors, ultimately benefiting the real economy [3][4]. Group 1: Basic Elements for Building a Unified Data Factor Market - The four basic elements for constructing a unified national data factor market are initial rights definition, transaction cost minimization, infrastructure development, and industrialization [4]. - Current obstacles to data factor market construction include unclear data property rights and high transaction costs, primarily due to the lagging property rights system behind technological advancements [4][5]. Group 2: Key Scientific Issues in Data Factor Market Construction - The initial rights definition of data resource development and utilization plays a foundational role in the construction of a unified data factor market, while transaction cost issues need urgent solutions [5]. - The construction of data circulation infrastructure introduces a technology trust mechanism, supporting data resource development, transaction pricing, and regulatory safety [5]. - The industrialization of data factors will act as an accelerator in promoting the construction of a unified national market [5]. Group 3: Data Property Rights Governance - The "Data Twenty Articles" propose a structural division of data property rights, which, while aligning with social equity from a legal perspective, presents significant logical conflicts from an economic standpoint [7]. - The classification and grading of data rights can increase transaction costs and complicate the sharing and trading of data resources, leading to data protectionism and monopolization [7][8]. - The initial rights to data resource development should ideally be assigned to the government, which can represent public interests and facilitate the efficient use of data resources [9]. Group 4: Transaction Cost Issues in Data Factor Market - Five key transaction costs affecting data factor flow include externality transaction costs, communication transaction costs, institutional transaction costs, intermediary service costs, and application delivery costs [11]. - High transaction costs hinder the incentive mechanisms for data resource circulation and utilization, necessitating government intervention to reduce these costs [12].

文/清华大学公共管理学院教授、人工智能国际治理研究院副院长 梁正 ，清华大 学公共管理学院博士后、人工智能国际治理研究院助理研究员 田贵平 ，清华大 学公共管理学院博士后、人工智能国际治理研究院助理研究员 宋雨鑫 当前人工智能全球治理面临"行动赤字"，存在发展、公平和安全三个维度 的挑战。在2 025年7月世界人工智能大会暨人工智能全球治理高级别会议 上，中国发布的《人工智能全球治理行动计划》为破解治理困境提供了务 实方案，其构建了普惠包容的治理框架，将人工智能定位为"国际公共产 品"，提出发展、安全、公平多维统筹的制度设计，并倡导建立多元协同 的国际治理网络。这标志着全球人工智能治理从理念共识迈向实质行动的 关键转变，为构建更加公正、包容、可持续的治理体系指明了方向。 面对人工智能技术迭代加速与治理滞后的结构性矛盾，人工智能全球治理亟需从理念倡导走向行动实践。《人工智能全球治理行动计划》作为中国的系统 性治理方案，以鲜明的发展导向和行动逻辑，为破解人工智能全球治理的"行动赤字"和多维困境指引明晰路径，体现了构建更加公平包容的全球治理体系 的中国智慧与责任担当。 多维困境：人工智能全球治理的挑战 当前，全球人 ...

在金融市场体系中，保险行业占据着重要地位，而地方国资控股的中小财险作为其中的组成部分，在区域金融 稳定与民生保障中发挥关键作用，但其公司治理长期存在行业监管与国资监管交叉、"三会一层"权责不清、党委前 置研究衔接不畅、治理运行低效、市场化程度不足等结构性问题。原银保监会曾指出，26 家地方国资财险公司中， 超 60% 存在 "三会一层" 运作不规范，导致风险防控失效、决策机制僵化。本文拟通过介绍国任财产保险股份有限 公司（以下简称"国任保险"）过去几年的探索实践，为地方国资中小财险构建中国特色现代金融企业治理体系提供 参考。 文/ 国任保险党委副书记、总裁 邓可 ， 国任保险董事会办公室资深专家 罗曦 1 地方国有中小 财险公司治理面临的 主要问题 从我国保险公司的治理实践来看， 地方控股中小财险公司面临以下几个主要问题： （一） 国资监管与行业监管边界的问题 国资监管主要目标是确保国有资本的保值增值，实现国有经济在关键领域的控制力和影响力。对于地方 中小险企，地方国资监管部门更关注企业的经济效益、资产回报率、国有股权权益、防止国有资产流失 等方面，强调企业在当地金融板块中的战略布局和产业引导作用。 编 者 ...

数字资产交易行业是区块链技术与金融创新深度融合的产物，近 年来伴随全球数字化进程加速，已成为重塑全球经济格局的重要 力量。《清华金融评论》编辑部特地展开征稿活动，就 前瞻 全 球数字资产展开征文。 《清华金融评论》 2025 年第 10 期专题 前瞻 全球 数字资产 数字资产交易行业是区块链技术与金融创新深度融合的产物，近年来伴随全球数字化进程加速，已成为 重塑全球经济格局的重要力量。《清华金融评论》编辑部特地展开征稿活动，就 前瞻 全球数字资产 展 开征文。 以"顶天、立地、学术、政策"为原则，以"分析研究经济金融形势、解读评论经济金融政策、建言献策 经济金融实践"为内容，旨在为政策制定者提供智囊服务，为经营决策者提供咨询服务，为教学研 究者 搭建交流平台，为广大投资者提供投资建议。围绕以下 12 个 选题展开论述， 您也可以根据自己擅长的 领域进行调整 。欢迎各位专家学者踊跃投稿，期待您的原创佳作。 约稿方向 4000～6000字（含图表） 3 查重 知网查重不超过8% 4 投稿格式 5 截止时间、投稿邮箱 2025年9月20日 thfrc@pbcsf.tsinghua.edu.cn 1 全球央行数字货币 ...

拥抱 人工智能 变革，共塑金融未来 文 /清华大学五道口金融学院 讲席 教授、副院长 张晓燕 2025年3月，政府工作报告提出持续推进"人工智能+"行动。这引发了人们对人工智能（AI）的更大关注。作为新一轮科技革命和产业变 革的重要驱动力量，人工智能正以前所未有的广度与深度， 重构各行业的业务形态与 服务模式。金融业因其数据密集型与技术驱动型特 征，正处于智能化变革的前沿，面临深刻的范式转型。如何把握历史性机遇，审慎应对伴生的复杂挑战，已成为金融生态体系亟待解决 的重要议题。这不仅是金融业自身转型升级的内在要求，更是响应国家战略部署、发展新质生产力、建设数字中国和金融强国的重要契 机。 人工智能对金融的战略意义，体现为三大引领性作用。其一， 人工智能 是驱动金融安全与效率提升的 "新基建"。它通过提升风险计量的 穿透性与市场监测的前瞻性，为维护金融体系稳定提供了关键技术支撑；同时以对核心业务流程的自动化决策与流程优化，带来了运营 效能的跃升。其二， 人工智能 是服务普惠金融等 "五篇大文章"的核心驱动力。它以技术力量，消解传统金融服务的边界与壁垒，推动金 融价值从服务少数群体走向赋能整个社会；同时通过对ESG ...

Financial Weekly 每周金融评论 | 目录 CONTENTS 热点聚焦 FOCUS ◎《关于加强商业银行互联网助贷业务管理提升金融服务质效的通知》 2025年9月8日 235 | 证监会 财政部、央行:加强协同,持续 推动我国债券市场平稳健康发展 FINAncial 每周金融评论 . . 10月1日即将实施，网贷监管更趋严格 MEETINGS ◎ 财政部、央行:加强协同，持续推动我国债券市场平稳健康发展 重大政策 POLICIES ◎ 证监会:合理调降公募基金认购费、申购费 EVENTS ◎ 美国8月非农就业数据远逊预期，9月降息几成定局 ◎ 财政部拟第二次续发行2025年超长期特别国债(三期) 車要数字 ◎ 中国8月末外汇储备较7月末上升299亿美元 深 刻 - 展 想 前 ଚଳ T 实 15 专注于经济金融政策解读与建言的智库型全媒体平台 5 元/篇 36 18 电子刊 纸质刊 元/期 432 元/ 180 元/年 010-62773231 载点 聚焦 l 《关于加强商业银行互联网助贷业务管理提升金融服务质效的通知》10月1日即将实施，网贷监管更趋严格 01 2025年4月初，国家金融监督管 ...

对中央银行货币供应管理职能构成潜在冲击。 周小川指出，稳定币发行机构凭借其发行行为实质上获得了货币创造能力，试图履行部分中央银行的职 能，这一趋势亟需引起高度重视。由于该类机构普遍缺乏对货币政策框架及央行运作机制的专业认知，其行为可能带来系统性风险。 此外，现实中准备金托管机制可能存在监管不足或执行不到位的情况。尽管存在准备金约束，稳定币的实际发行规模仍主要由发行机构自主决定。即便实 行100%准备金制度，稳定币仍可能通过存贷、抵押及多重交易渠道衍生出广义流动性，导致实际流通规模难以准确测算，从而干扰央行对货币供应量的 判断与政策制定。 应用场景渗透速度低于此前市场预期。 目前，稳定币的使用已不再局限于原生加密货币生态，正逐步扩展至跨境支付体系、电子商务清算、供应链金融 以及真实世界资产（RWA）代币化等多个领域。市场对稳定币规模的预估，普遍建立在上述应用实现大规模推广的前提之下。 文/《清华金融评论》 杨曦 中国人民银行原行长周小川在ICMA第57届法兰克福年会上发表了以"数 字货币的挑战与潜在风险"为主题的演讲，指出了数字货币尤其是稳定币 落地面临的挑战和潜在风险。他总结时强调，数字货币发展在提升效率、 ...