Core Viewpoint - The nomination of Kevin Warsh as the next Federal Reserve Chairman by President Trump is a significant personnel decision that has caused fluctuations in financial markets, particularly impacting precious metal prices. Warsh's policy proposals, which include supporting interest rate cuts, reducing the Fed's balance sheet, and narrowing the Fed's functional scope, are seen as challenging to implement effectively [1][2][11]. Group 1: Warsh's Monetary Policy Proposals - Warsh supports interest rate cuts, aligning with Trump's views that rapid rate reductions are essential for selecting a Fed Chairman. He believes that artificial intelligence will play a crucial role in reducing inflation and enhancing economic competitiveness [7][10]. - Warsh has consistently opposed quantitative easing, arguing that it encourages significant government deficits and ultimately leads to inflation. He advocates for a new agreement between the Treasury and the Fed to clarify the target size of the Fed's balance sheet [8][9]. - Warsh criticizes the Fed for overstepping its responsibilities, particularly in areas like climate change, and calls for a strategic adjustment to restore the Fed's credibility and independence [9][10]. Group 2: Challenges to Implementing Warsh's Policies - The Federal Reserve operates on a consensus basis, meaning Warsh cannot unilaterally implement policies without majority support from other members. The potential continuation of Powell as a Fed governor adds uncertainty to Warsh's ability to enact his agenda [12][13]. - There is a lack of data supporting significant interest rate cuts, as the Fed has recently paused rate reductions. Warsh's reliance on a narrative around productivity improvements from AI may not convince other committee members to support aggressive rate cuts [12][13]. - The plan to reduce the Fed's balance sheet faces resistance from both Fed officials and financial markets, which could lead to higher long-term interest rates, countering Trump's goal of lowering borrowing costs [13][14]. Group 3: Impact on Precious Metal Prices - Warsh's nomination has led to a significant decline in precious metal prices, with gold dropping over 12% and silver by 26.42% on the day of the announcement. This decline is attributed to market corrections following previous overexuberance rather than solely Warsh's nomination [15][16]. - In the medium to long term, precious metal prices are expected to remain strong amid macroeconomic uncertainties, although various factors may increase short-term volatility [15][17]. - Central bank gold purchases have been a key support for gold prices, but any significant reduction in these purchases could lead to market reassessments of gold's value, further impacting prices [17].

Regulatory Framework - The China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) released guidelines on the issuance of asset-backed security tokens overseas, establishing a compliance path for cross-border tokenization of real-world assets (RWA) and defining business boundaries with a "filing system" regulatory model [6][7]. - Six major prohibitions were outlined, including restrictions on financing through capital markets for legally prohibited assets, projects that may endanger national security, and assets with ownership disputes [7]. Banking and Insurance Regulations - The National Financial Regulatory Administration issued the "Banking and Insurance Institutions License Management Measures," effective from June 1, 2026, to enhance the management of banking and insurance licenses and ensure legal operations [8]. - The revised measures aim to improve the classification of licenses and strengthen compliance management, with a focus on preventing illegal operations [8]. International Cooperation - The inaugural meeting of the China-UK Financial Working Group was held in Beijing, focusing on macroeconomic stability, financial regulation, and sustainable finance [9]. - The working group aims to facilitate regular communication and cooperation between the two countries' financial sectors, including mutual recognition of regulatory standards [9]. Taxation Policy - The State Taxation Administration announced an increase in the VAT threshold from 500 yuan to 1000 yuan starting in 2026, with specific conditions for certain transactions [10][11]. - This policy aims to balance tax efficiency and fairness, reducing the tax burden on individuals and allowing small-scale taxpayers flexibility in tax exemptions [11]. Gold Reserves - The People's Bank of China reported a continuous increase in gold reserves for 15 consecutive months, reaching 74.19 million ounces by the end of January 2026, with foreign exchange reserves rising to $339.91 billion [12]. - This strategy aims to optimize the structure of foreign exchange reserves and enhance financial security amid global monetary system adjustments [12]. Stock Market Performance - The Nikkei 225 index surged by 5.15%, reaching an all-time high of 57,000 points, driven by expectations of economic stimulus policies following the ruling party's electoral success [13]. - Market optimism is fueled by anticipated fiscal expansion and continued monetary easing, although concerns about long-term debt sustainability remain [13].

Core Viewpoint - The nomination of Kevin Warsh as the next Federal Reserve Chairman by President Trump raises concerns about the potential for a tightening policy that may conflict with Trump's desire for lower interest rates, creating uncertainty in the market [1][3]. Group 1: Warsh's Policy Stance and Challenges - Warsh advocates for balance sheet reduction to curb inflation and create room for interest rate cuts, suggesting the cessation of purchases of mortgage-backed securities (MBS) to address liquidity excess [3]. - The potential for a tightening policy under Warsh could lead to a liquidity crisis in the market, as historical precedents indicate that previous balance sheet reductions have caused significant market disruptions [3][4]. - If Warsh is appointed, the Federal Reserve's short-term policy may lean dovish due to political pressures from the upcoming midterm elections, possibly prioritizing interest rate cuts over balance sheet reduction [3]. Group 2: Implications of Balance Sheet Reduction - A significant balance sheet reduction could lead to a sharp decline in asset prices, which is contrary to the interests of the Trump administration [4]. - The question arises regarding who would absorb the increasing debt of the U.S. government if the Federal Reserve proceeds with balance sheet reduction, given its current focus on purchasing U.S. Treasury securities [4]. Group 3: Employment Data and Economic Indicators - The non-farm payroll data was not released due to a government shutdown, with the ADP data indicating only 22,000 jobs added in January 2026, significantly below the expected 45,000, marking the worst January performance in nearly five years [5]. Group 4: Central Bank Policies in Europe - Both the European Central Bank (ECB) and the Bank of England (BoE) maintained their benchmark interest rates in February 2026, but their policy outlooks differ significantly [6][7]. - The BoE's decision to keep the rate at 3.75% was narrowly passed with a 5-4 vote, indicating potential for future rate cuts if inflation continues to decline [7]. - The ECB has kept its key rates unchanged for the fifth consecutive time, focusing on data-driven decisions to ensure medium-term inflation stability at 2% [8][9].

以下文章来源于中国金融四十人论坛 ，作者白重恩 中国金融四十人论坛 . 聚焦金融热点，速递论坛动态，独家发布论坛课题成果，连载书系新书、好书。 文/中国金融四十人论坛（CF40）学术委员、清华大学经济管理学院院长、全国 工商联副主席 白重恩 当前中国经济内需不足、价格偏低，此时正是"投资于改革"的好时机，即 通过财政与货币政策的协同配合，为结构性改革支付过渡成本，从而实现 短期刺激与长期制度优化的双重目标。 当下是"投资于改革"的好时机 当前价格走势较为疲软，内需不足。从数据来看，无论是CPI还是PPI，目前都处于较低水平，尤其是PPI更为明显。此外，近年来名义GDP增速甚至低于 实际GDP增速，这反映出需求不足与价格偏低的问题。在此背景下，实现温和的通货膨胀将带来诸多益处，包括稳定包括房地产在内的资产名义价格。我 们应如何实现温和通胀的目标？ 一个重要的思路是实施刺激政策。其中，财政刺激是关键手段之一。关于财政资金应投向何处，存在多种观点。过去主要投资于"物"，即基础设施等实物 资产，但其效果已逐渐减弱。如今，各方普遍强调"投资于人"，这无疑是一大进步。然而，"投资于人"也面临挑战。 例如，若用于改善社会保 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the need for stringent measures to prevent and address risks associated with virtual currencies and the tokenization of real-world assets (RWA) to maintain national security and social stability [4][5]. Summary by Sections Nature of Virtual Currencies and RWA Tokenization - Virtual currencies do not possess the same legal status as fiat currencies and are characterized by their non-issuance by monetary authorities, use of encryption technology, and existence in digital form. They lack legal tender status and should not circulate as currency [5]. - Activities related to virtual currencies are classified as illegal financial activities, including exchanges between fiat and virtual currencies, trading virtual currencies, and issuing tokens without authorization [5]. - RWA tokenization involves converting ownership and income rights of assets into tokens using encryption and distributed ledger technology, which is also deemed illegal without proper authorization [6]. Collaborative Mechanisms - A collaborative mechanism among various departments, including the People's Bank of China and the China Securities Regulatory Commission, is established to coordinate efforts in preventing and addressing risks related to virtual currencies and RWA tokenization [8]. Risk Monitoring and Management - Continuous improvement of monitoring technologies and systems is essential for risk assessment related to virtual currencies and RWA tokenization. Local governments are tasked with effective online and offline monitoring to identify and share risk information promptly [10]. Regulation of Financial and Service Institutions - Financial institutions are prohibited from providing services related to virtual currencies, including account opening and fund transfers. They must also refrain from offering custody or settlement services for unauthorized RWA tokenization activities [11]. - Internet companies are restricted from providing platforms for virtual currency and RWA tokenization activities, and must report any illegal activities to authorities [11]. Advertising and Registration Management - Market regulatory authorities are to enhance management of business registrations, ensuring that names and business scopes do not include terms related to virtual currencies or RWA tokenization [12]. Enforcement Against Illegal Activities - Local financial management departments are responsible for investigating and addressing illegal financial activities related to virtual currencies and RWA tokenization, with severe penalties for violations [13]. International Business Regulations - Strict regulations are imposed on domestic entities engaging in virtual currency activities abroad, ensuring compliance with local laws and regulations [15][16]. Organizational Leadership and Public Awareness - A strong organizational framework is necessary for risk prevention, with a focus on public education regarding the risks associated with virtual currencies and RWA tokenization [18][19].

文/ 广开首席产业研究院院长兼首席经济学家 连平 20 26年1月31日，经过反复权衡后，特朗普宣布在凯文・沃什、国家经济 委员会主任凯文・哈塞特、贝莱德集团高管里克・里德以及美联储理事克 里斯托弗・沃勒等候选人中，将最终提名凯文・沃什担任下一任美联储主 席。从国际金融市场的反应来看，似乎作出了过度解读，如强调沃什曾经 的鹰派立场，忽略了特朗普对于这一关键职位选人的忠诚度要求；而特朗 普本人也对沃什2026年在美联储体系中实际发挥的作用期盼过高，忘记 了 美 联 储 主 席 一 旦 就 职 ， 其 制 度 角 色 往 往 会 压 倒 个 人 倾 向 。 美 联 储 " 换 帅"的结果，最终恐怕很难如特朗普所愿。 特朗普为何选择沃什？ 在四位人选中，哈塞特对特朗普亦步亦趋、唯命是从，此前一度呼声较高，但市场将其视为特朗普的"傀儡"，公信力严重不足；里德缺乏美联储管理经 验，且其华尔街背景容易引发"利益输送"质疑；沃勒的鹰派立场甚至超过鲍威尔，更让特朗普难以接受。只有沃什是相对最优解，特朗普称赞其知道"如 何用规则包装政治诉求""能精准契合自己意图"。 | 候选人 | 政策主张 | | 参议院通过概率 | 特朗普 ...

# 读者福利 ， 欢迎留言互动， 2 月 13 日前，平台随机从留言中选取 1 位读者获赠本期推 荐好书！ 《全球化大变局：贸易冲突与秩序重构》 连平 等著 清华大学出版社 出版 内容简介 风云变幻的时代，看透世界经济变化发展的来龙去脉 本书由中国首席经济学家论坛理事长连平领衔，集结了首席论坛的几位非常优秀 的首席经济学家，秉承了中国首席经济学家论坛一贯严谨专业的研究态度，以丰 富的案例、翔实的数据和深入的分析，全面剖析了当前中美关税战的来龙去脉、 影响以及未来走向，同时对国际贸易中的诸多热点议题进行了细致解读。 全书共分为五篇，围绕2025年特朗普政府推行"对等关税"这一且极具冲击力的事 件，从历史、成因、影响、趋势等多维度对美国"对等关税"政策进行了深度挖 掘，剖析其对全球政治经济格局的冲击，前瞻性洞察全球化大变局下的中美经贸 关系未来可能的走向。 本书充分发挥了中国首席经济学家群体的研究智慧，集合多元化视角，有助于引 发更多关于全球化未来走向、中美合作共赢的深度思考。本书既可作为学术研究 者以及关心国际经济形势的广大读者理解当下国际经贸形势、把握全球化发展脉 搏的参考用书，亦可供相关领域的企业和政府决策 ...

Core Viewpoint - Forestry is not only a public welfare undertaking but also a fundamental industry that plays a crucial role in ecological responsibility and economic development, especially in the context of rural revitalization and green transformation goals set by the government [4][23]. Group 1: Current State of Forestry Development - As of the end of 2024, China's forest land area reached 4.253 billion acres, with a forest coverage rate of 25.09%, an increase of approximately 2 percentage points since 2020, making China the fastest-growing country in global forest resources [7]. - The total output value of the forestry industry exceeded 10 trillion yuan in 2024, with a year-on-year growth of 9.6% [7]. - The structure of the forestry industry has evolved from a primary industry focus in 2004 (56.4:37.2:6.4) to a more integrated approach by 2023 (31.8:43.2:25) [7]. Group 2: Challenges in Forestry Financial Support - The financing channels for forestry enterprises are currently narrow, primarily relying on policy funds, bank credit, direct financing, and social capital, with commercial financing being limited [11]. - Existing financial products do not adequately address the complex risk structures and diverse operational types within the forestry sector, leading to mismatches between financial supply and actual industry needs [12]. - The lack of insurance products and risk-sharing mechanisms in forestry exposes enterprises to various risks, including natural, market, and financial risks, which are compounded by the long production cycles typical in the industry [13]. Group 3: Financial Innovation Paths for Forestry - Strengthening financial policy guidance and support is essential, including improving the forest rights mortgage financing mechanism and enhancing the evaluation and information-sharing systems [15][16]. - Financial institutions should innovate products and services tailored to the unique needs of the forestry sector, such as developing small credit loans for short-term projects and deepening services like forest rights pledge loans [17]. - A diversified insurance system should be established to cover various risks in forestry, with a focus on developing products that address the specific needs of different regions and types of forestry operations [19]. Group 4: Role of Patient Capital and Digital Finance - Patient capital is crucial for supporting long-term technological innovation in forestry, as it aligns with the industry's need for sustained investment over extended periods [20]. - Digital inclusive finance can enhance the efficiency of forestry operations and support the digital transformation of the industry, facilitating better access to financial services and improving overall productivity [22].

文/ 建信信托公益慈善与消保部总经理 徐进 ， 德恒律师事务所顾问 、 天津新 开法律研究院院长 柏高原 ， 天津新开法律研究院研究员 、 涉外法治研究中心 主 任 汤杰 本文重点以家族信托为例，研究思考财富管理服务信托适当性管理的理论 框架、实践路径与优化策略，以期对规范行业发展、保护委托人和受益人 权益、防范金融风险提供建设性的理论参考与现实借鉴。 2025年7月11日，国家金融监督管理总局正式颁布《金融机构产品适当性管理办法》（以下简称《办法》），并规定自2026年2月1日起实施。该《办法》 的出台标志着我国金融消费者适当性保护进入了更加系统化、规范化的新阶段。 近年来，我国金融市场不断深化发展，金融产品和服务日趋丰富和复杂，金融消费者保护也成为了监管部门的重点关注领域。适当性管理作为金融消费者 保护的核心制度，其理念是通过要求金融机构将适当的产品销售给适当的客户，来弥补金融交易中信息不对称和专业能力不对等的缺陷。这次出台的《办 法》中第一条明确阐述了其立法目的： "为规范金融机构产品适当性管理，保护金融消费者合法权益"。 这表明《办法》的核心价值取向是在规范金融机构行为的同时，着重保护处于相对弱势地位 ...

导语： 根据"十五五"规划建议要求，必须将有效市场与有为政府紧密结合，强化市场在资源配置中的决定性功能。资本市场作为现代金融 体系的关键构成，其服务于资源优化配置、推动科技创新与促进产业升级的基础作用日益突出。中国人民大学国家金融研究院院长、国家一 级教授吴晓求，立足于对资本市场战略地位的深刻把握，系统剖析了其"五边形"生态链的重构方向与改革关键，从资产端、资金端及规则端 三重维度进一步厘清了整体重塑路径。 一 引言 2025年10月20日—23日，中国共产党第二十届中央委员会第四次全体会议在北京召开。会议准确把握"十五五"时期党和国家事业 发展所处历史方位，深入分析我国发展环境面临的深刻复杂变化，对未来五年发展作出顶层设计和战略擘画。其中，"十五五"规划 明确提出必须坚持有效市场和有为政府相结合，充分发挥市场在资源配置中的决定性作用。作为现代金融市场的重要组成， 资本 市场在资源优化配置、科技创新支持和产业结构升级中的基础性作用愈加凸显 。面对国内外经济环境的深刻调整和金融格局的深 度演变，中央对资本市场的功能定位、制度建设与治理体系提出了更高要求，使其成为推动高质量发展和构建新发展格局的重要支 撑力量。 ...