Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article emphasizes the need for stronger measures to stabilize the real estate market in 2026, with a focus on controlling supply, reducing inventory, and improving the quality of housing [2][3] - The 2025 Central Economic Work Conference highlighted the urgency of stabilizing the real estate market, indicating that the current situation is more pressing than in late 2024 and early 2025 [3] - The government aims to encourage the acquisition of existing residential properties for use as affordable housing, with a specific policy tool introduced in May 2024 allowing for a 300 billion yuan re-loan for this purpose [4][5] Group 2 - The direction for reducing real estate inventory has become clearer, with a focus on controlling new land supply and revitalizing existing properties [4] - Innovative practices in some cities have emerged, such as using "housing vouchers" in an "old for new" exchange model to facilitate the acquisition of older homes, thereby avoiding pricing issues associated with new properties [5] - The construction of "good houses" is a new initiative aimed at improving housing quality, which is expected to stabilize investment in the real estate sector while balancing the need to reduce existing inventory [6]

文/清华大学五道口金融学院讲席教授，国际金融与经济研究中心（CIFER）主 任 鞠建东 本文围绕中国式现代化建设目标，系统阐述实现该目标的四个关键体制改 革步骤：一是推进权力下 放至县（区）层级；二是建立健全社会保障托 底机制；三是制定促进人口长期均衡发展的生育支持 政策；四是构建"县 （区）、乡镇（街道）、村（社区）"三级联动的知识经济体系。 何为中国式现代化 根据2024年统计数据，新加坡人口规模为600万，人均GDP达9万美元；中国人口总量为14亿，人均GDP约1.3万美元，大致相当于新加坡水平的七分之 一。若以70万人作为县（区）平均人口基数，全国约对应2000个县（区）。 由此，中国式现代化的目标可理解为：在构建全国统一大市场的框架下，建成2000个"小新加坡"。具体而言，力争到2060年前后，即大约35年后，实现全 国2000个县（区）人均GDP平均值达到新加坡当前9万美元的发展水平。关于为何设定为2000个"小新加坡"而非200个或30余个，下文将进一步论证。 推进权力下放至县（区）层级 在这一结构中，中央经济代表全民利益，职能定位于维护全国统一大市场的稳定与发展；县（区）经济代表集体利益，职能 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the transition of sustainable development from a strategic concept to a critical measure of high-quality economic growth in China, particularly highlighting 2025 as a pivotal year for deepening practical implementation of sustainability initiatives [3]. Group 1: Policy and Regulatory Framework - The Chinese government has introduced several policies, including the "Central Enterprises ESG Special Action Guidelines (2025)" and the "Management Measures for Information Disclosure of Listed Companies," mandating the integration of sustainable development into corporate governance and moving from optional to standardized disclosure [3]. - Financial institutions are evolving from advocates of sustainability to key actors, embedding ESG principles into their strategies and business processes, and promoting green finance and responsible investment [3]. Group 2: Case Collection Initiative - Tsinghua Financial Review has launched a "2025 Sustainable Development Typical Case Collection" to create a high-level platform for sharing best practices in green finance and sustainability governance [4]. - The initiative aims to collect, select, and showcase exemplary cases that reflect significant achievements in sustainable development, thereby establishing industry benchmarks and facilitating experience sharing [4]. Group 3: Submission Guidelines - The case collection is open to banks, insurance companies, securities firms, asset management institutions, and listed companies, focusing on innovative and impactful sustainability practices [6]. - Submissions should cover various themes, including climate change response, pollution management, waste treatment, and social responsibility, among others [7]. - Cases must demonstrate the submitting entity's positive contributions to sustainable development and include comprehensive data and visual materials to illustrate their impact [8].

Core Viewpoint - The article introduces the "Liquidity-Adjusted Volatility Index (LVIX)" as a theoretical extension of the Volatility Adjusted Index (SVIX), which allows for deviations from the put-call parity in the context of the Chinese stock market. This development has significant implications for asset pricing and the assessment of systemic risk and expected excess returns in China's financial market [2][3]. Group 1: Market Characteristics and Systemic Risk - By the end of 2025, the total market capitalization of China's stock market is expected to exceed 100 trillion yuan, highlighting its status as one of the largest stock markets globally. The systemic risk in the A-share market continues to attract attention from regulators and investors [3]. - According to modern asset pricing theory, risk and return are two sides of the same coin, where expected excess returns compensate investors for bearing systemic risk. Effectively measuring the expected excess return in the A-share market can enhance price discovery and assist regulators in monitoring systemic risk [3]. Group 2: Challenges in Estimating Expected Excess Returns - Estimating the market's expected excess return is complex, as it is a key factor in pricing models like the Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM) and multi-factor models. The expected excess return reflects future returns and is influenced by macroeconomic trends rather than historical performance [5]. - Previous literature often substitutes historical average excess returns for expected excess returns, which has two main drawbacks: actual market excess returns may deviate from expected returns, and historical data is inherently lagging, making it less useful for predictions [5]. Group 3: Utilizing Information Beyond the Spot Market - A natural consideration is whether information from markets outside the spot market can be used to characterize systemic risk and estimate expected excess returns. Different financial markets exhibit distinct characteristics, and investors often trade across these markets, leading to shared information [6]. - Financial derivatives, particularly index options, play a crucial role in reflecting market risk and aiding price discovery. They can lower hedging costs and enhance risk management strategies, providing a data foundation for measuring market risk and estimating future expected excess returns [6].

Group 1 - The article discusses the implementation of a loan interest subsidy policy for small and micro enterprises in China, aimed at helping them overcome difficulties and promote high-quality economic development [2][3] - The policy will support fixed asset loans and new policy financial tools for eligible small and micro private enterprises starting from January 1, 2026, with a subsidy rate of 1.5% per year for up to two years [3] - The maximum loan amount eligible for the subsidy is 50 million yuan, with a maximum subsidy of 1.5 million yuan per enterprise [3] Group 2 - The supported sectors include key industrial chains, production service industries, and emerging fields such as artificial intelligence, with specific focus areas like new energy vehicles, medical equipment, and industrial software [3] - The Ministry of Finance and the financial regulatory authority will conduct joint inspections to ensure compliance, with strict penalties for serious violations by enterprises or banks involved in fraudulent subsidy operations [3]

1月20日上午，国新办举行新闻发布会，介绍落实中央经济工作会议精神，推动"十五五"实现良好开局有关情况。 国家发展改革委副主任王昌林在国新办新闻发布会上表示，今年将 研究制定出台2026—2030年扩大内需战略实施方案。 王昌林还表示，将进一步细化地方招商引资 ，加强重点行业价格监管，依法依规治理企业低价无序竞争 ，形成优质优价良性竞争的市场秩 序，大力实施质量品牌战略，破解内卷竞争。 国家发展改革委综合司司长周陈在国新办新闻发布会上表示，正在谋划推进一批 "十五五"时期高技术产业标志性引领性重大工程 。 发布会上介绍，要发挥好国家创业投资基金行业标杆作用， 研究设立国家级并购基金 ，加强政府投资、基金布局规划等，促进创新创业创 造，加快培育和发展新质生产力。 消费品以旧换新方面，将打击违法行为，严格执行审核，精准识别各类违法违规行为。 严格价格管理 ，对于骗补套补、先涨后补等行为，发 现一起、查处一起、曝光一起、打击一起。 王昌林还表示，着力解决群众急难愁盼，民生福祉实现新提升。面对人民群众新期待，我们进一步加强普惠性、基础性、兜底性民生建设， 努力促进高质量充分就业，全年城镇调查失业率平均为5.2%，有序 ...

中国人民银行授权全国银行间同业拆借中心公布，2026年1月20日贷款市场报价利率（LPR）为： 1年期LPR为3.0%，5年期以上LPR为3.5% 。两个期限LPR均与上月持平。 来源丨中国人民银行 编辑丨兰银帆 审核丨许晨辉 往期回顾 Review of Past Articles - 郑栅洁主任主持召开民营企业座谈会 就"十五五"时期服务业发展听取意见建议 01 02 等你来投！《清华金融评论》12月刊 " 黄金投资逻辑：历史周期与趋势演变 " 征稿启事 小媒求你加·3 标 TSINGHUA PBCSF TSINGHUA Financial Revi 清华五道厂 明年终的未来 《清华金融评论》专注于经济会融 政策解读与建言,设置一个封面专 题以及宏观经济、政策与监管、 银行与保险、资本市场、财富与资 管、金融与科技、论文故事汇、道 口研究、国际九个专业栏目,所有 栏目都期待这样的来稿: 在风格上 既可以是分析研判式的文稿,也可以是解读评论型的文稿, 既可以建言献策经济金融理论与实践,也可以归纳总结新经 济金融模式与案例。 在形式上 无需复杂的理论与计量模型,无需过多的图形与数据表格, 无需臃肿的注释与参考 ...

Key Points - The core viewpoint of the article emphasizes the steady growth of China's economy in 2025, with a GDP growth rate of 5.0%, despite facing multiple pressures and challenges [8][9]. Group 1: Economic Growth - The preliminary calculation shows that the GDP for 2025 reached 14,018.79 billion yuan, reflecting a 5.0% increase from the previous year [8]. - The first industry added value was 933.47 billion yuan (3.9% growth), the second industry was 499.65 billion yuan (4.5% growth), and the third industry was 808.79 billion yuan (5.4% growth) [8]. - Quarterly GDP growth rates were 5.4% in Q1, 5.2% in Q2, 4.8% in Q3, and 4.5% in Q4, with a quarter-on-quarter growth of 1.2% in Q4 [8]. Group 2: Policy Initiatives - The State Council meeting highlighted the need to accelerate the cultivation of new growth points in service consumption and implement measures to boost consumption [9][10]. - The meeting emphasized the importance of improving the quality of service consumption and addressing issues related to credit, standards, and safety management [9][10]. - A long-term mechanism for promoting consumption will be established, including the "15th Five-Year Plan" for consumption expansion and urban-rural resident income increase plans [10]. Group 3: Financial Regulation - The Financial Regulatory Bureau's 2026 work meeting focused on summarizing 2025's work and planning key tasks for 2026, emphasizing risk prevention and high-quality development [11][13]. - The meeting underscored the importance of enhancing financial services to support economic stability and growth, with a focus on structural support and long-term capital guidance [13]. Group 4: Monetary Policy - The People's Bank of China announced several monetary policies aimed at supporting high-quality economic development, including a 0.25 percentage point reduction in various structural monetary policy tool rates [14]. - The policies aim to lower financing costs for the real economy and guide financial resources towards key sectors such as technology innovation and green transformation [14]. Group 5: Market Stability - The China Securities Regulatory Commission emphasized maintaining market stability and preventing extreme fluctuations, with a focus on long-term value investment [15]. - Measures will be taken to strengthen market monitoring and prevent market manipulation, ensuring a stable trading environment [15]. Group 6: Commodity Prices - International gold and silver prices reached historical highs, with gold at $4,671.07 per ounce and silver at $93.194 per ounce, driven by economic uncertainty and inflation pressures [16][17]. - The demand for gold and silver as safe-haven assets is expected to continue increasing, reflecting market concerns about future economic prospects [17]. Group 7: Hainan Free Trade Port - Hainan's offshore duty-free sales reached 4.86 billion yuan in the first month of closure, marking a 46.8% year-on-year increase [18]. - The strong performance of the duty-free market indicates robust consumer enthusiasm and highlights Hainan's role in promoting high-level opening-up [18].

Core Viewpoint - The current rise in gold prices, which has increased by 52.06% in 2025 and over 5% this year, reflects a strong investment value and is driven by growing global macroeconomic uncertainties [1]. Group 1: Attributes Determining Gold Prices - Gold has three main attributes: monetary, financial, and commodity. The monetary attribute refers to gold's role as a general equivalent and its function as a central bank reserve, which has diminished but still exists as a counter to the US dollar [3]. - The financial attribute highlights gold as an investment asset, particularly through gold ETFs, which have lowered the entry barrier for investors and amplified price volatility [3]. - The commodity attribute pertains to gold's use in jewelry and technology, with demand increasing in countries like China and India due to economic growth [4]. Group 2: Historical Bull Markets in Gold - The first major bull market occurred from 1968 to 1980, where gold prices surged from $35/oz to $850/oz, a total increase of 2328.57% [8][10]. - The second bull market spanned from 2001 to 2011, with prices rising from $272.50/oz to $1921.15/oz, marking a 605.01% increase [11][15]. - Both bull markets were driven by significant challenges to the US dollar's credibility, with the first linked to economic crises and the second to the aftermath of the tech bubble and the financial crisis [10][15]. Group 3: Current Gold Bull Market Analysis - The current bull market began in 2022, with gold prices rising from $1614/oz to a peak of $4690.88/oz, a maximum increase of 190.64% [19]. - The primary driver of this bull market is the significant increase in gold purchases by central banks, which reached 456.9 tons in Q3 2022, a year-on-year increase of 404.30% [22]. - Central bank purchases have consistently outpaced other demand categories, indicating a shift in the gold market dynamics [23]. Group 4: Future Outlook for Gold - The total value of global central bank gold reserves is projected to exceed $3.93 trillion by the end of 2025, surpassing the total value of US Treasury holdings [26]. - Factors contributing to the ongoing demand for gold include the deterioration of US fiscal discipline, challenges to the US's international standing, and the potential decline of its technological edge [26][27]. - The current gold bull market is expected to last over ten years, with potential price increases comparable to historical bull markets, possibly exceeding 2000's 605.01% rise and approaching the 1970's 2328.57% increase [28].

2025年，面对国内外经济环境的复杂变化，在以习近平同志为核心的党中央坚强领导下，各地区各部门深入贯彻落实党中央、国务院决策部署， 坚定不移贯彻新发展理念、推动高质量发展，统筹国内国际两个大局，统筹发展和安全，实施更加积极有为的宏观政策，纵深推进全国统一大市 场建设，国民经济运行顶压前行、向新向优，高质量发展取得新成效，经济社会发展主要目标任务圆满实现，"十四五"胜利收官。 三、服务业平稳增长，现代服务业发展良好 全年服务业增加值比上年增长5.4%。其中，信息传输、软件和信息技术服务业，租赁和商务服务业，交通运输、仓储和邮政业，批发和零售 业，住宿和餐饮业增加值分别增长11.1%、10.3%、5.2%、5.0%、4.9%。12月份，服务业生产指数同比增长5.0%。其中，信息传输、软件和信息 技术服务业，租赁和商务服务业，金融业生产指数分别增长14.8%、11.3%、6.5%。1—11月份，规模以上服务业企业营业收入同比增长7.8%。12 月份，服务业商务活动指数为49.7%，比上月上升0.2个百分点；服务业业务活动预期指数为56.4%，上升0.5个百分点。其中，电信广播电视及卫 星传输服务、货币金融服务、资本 ...