国家统计局10月20日发布数据显示，初步核算， 2025年前三季度中国国内生产总值（GDP）1015036亿元 。按不变价格计算， 同比增长 5.2% 。前三季度经济运行稳中有进，高质量发展取得积极成效。 第二，尽管经济增速有所回落，但经济稳中有进发展态势没有变。从增长水平看，我国三季度4.8%的经济增速水平仍明显高于多数主要经济 体，对于我们这么大体量的经济体尤为难能可贵。三季度经济总量达35.5万亿元，超过了全球第三大经济体2024年全年经济总量。从就业物价 看，就业形势总体稳定，物价运行有所改善。三季度城镇调查失业率与上年同期持平，核心CPI同比涨幅持续扩大，PPI降幅连续2个月收窄。 从国际收支看，保持总体平衡。三季度货物进出口总额同比增长6.0%，外汇储备连续2个月增加。从发展质量看，经济转型升级态势持续。三 季度，规模以上高技术制造业增加值同比增速明显快于全部工业；信息传输、软件和信息技术服务业增加值增长11.7%，比上年同期加快1.7 个百分点；机器人、3D打印设备等智能产品，绿色设备及绿色材料等产品产量持续较快增长。 国家统计局新闻发言人就2025年前三季度国民经济运行情况答记者问： 1.今年 ...

确保基本实现社会主义现代化取得决定性进展——写在党的二十届四中全会召开之际 历史，正在书写新的篇章。 10月20日至23日，党的二十届四中全会在北京召开。会议将审议《中共中央关于制定国民经济和社会发展第十五个五年规划的建议》，为未 来五年中国发展擘画蓝图。 2021年—2025年，"十四五"时期是我国全面建成小康社会、实现第一个百年奋斗目标之后，乘势而上开启全面建设社会主义现代化国家新征 程、向第二个百年奋斗目标进军的第一个五年。全国上下勠力同心、攻坚克难，我国经济社会发展取得新的开创性进展、突破性变革、历史 性成就。 2026年—2030年，围绕以中国式现代化全面推进强国建设、民族复兴伟业，"十五五"时期是基本实现社会主义现代化夯实基础、全面发力的 关键时期。 "十四五"规划收官之际，"两张网"的建设格外引人关注： 一张是国家综合立体交通网，"6轴7廊8通道"主骨架建成率超过90%； 一张是国家水网，2025年底覆盖率预计达到80.3%。 大国之治，江山为基。水网、路网，越千里山川，通四方之利，济万民之需，都是事关现代化建设的大事。 2025年8月19日拍摄的湖南炉慈高速慈利西互通枢纽（无人机照片）。炉慈高 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes that China's export growth is entering a new phase in 2024-2025, with an overall high growth rate expected, driven by various factors including fiscal expansion in developed economies and increased global demand for new industrial products [2][5][6]. Export Growth Analysis - In September, China's exports increased by 8.3% year-on-year, maintaining a high level, with a month-on-month growth of 2.1%, consistent with seasonal averages [3][5]. - The third quarter saw a year-on-year export growth of 6.6%, aligning with expectations, despite a seasonal low of 1.0% month-on-month [5]. - For the fourth quarter, a simple calculation suggests a year-on-year growth of 3.6% if the month-on-month growth aligns with the seasonal average [5]. Historical Context - From 2000 to 2011, China's export growth averaged 21.8%, significantly outpacing global export growth of 11.0% [6]. - The period from 2012 to 2019 saw a decline in China's export growth, averaging only 3.7%, while global export growth was around 0.7% [7]. - The years 2020 to 2023 experienced high volatility in exports, with China’s growth fluctuating in response to global supply chain disruptions [7]. Future Projections - In 2024, global exports are projected to grow by 2.3%, while China's exports are expected to grow by 5.8% [8]. - The article predicts that in 2024-2025, China's export growth will exceed global growth by more than double, driven by factors such as fiscal policies in developed countries and increased demand for high-tech products [6]. Regional Export Dynamics - Exports to ASEAN and Africa have shown significant growth, with cumulative year-on-year increases of 14.7% and 28.3% respectively in the first nine months of the year [10]. - Exports to Africa have been particularly strong, with a year-on-year growth of 56.4% in September [10]. Product Export Performance - High-end product exports are experiencing substantial growth, with exports of integrated circuits increasing by 32.7% and general machinery by 24.9% [11]. - In contrast, labor-intensive products like textiles and clothing have seen a decline in exports, with a combined year-on-year decrease of 5.8% [11]. Import Trends - In September, imports grew by 7.4% year-on-year, with significant increases in iron ore, copper, and integrated circuits [12]. - The acceleration in imports may be linked to policy-driven financial tools and project initiations, indicating potential improvements in investment for the fourth quarter [12].

Monetary Policy Overview - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) held its 2025 Q3 monetary policy committee meeting on September 23, emphasizing the need for appropriate monetary policy to support high-quality economic development and create a favorable financial environment for economic recovery [4][5] - The meeting highlighted the effectiveness of the loan market quotation rate reform and the market-oriented adjustment mechanism for deposit rates, which have improved the efficiency of monetary policy transmission and kept social financing costs at historically low levels [4][5] Economic Analysis - The committee analyzed both domestic and international economic conditions, noting a more complex external environment with weakening global economic growth and increasing trade barriers [4][6] - Despite challenges such as insufficient domestic demand and low price levels, China's economy is showing steady progress, with rising social confidence and new achievements in high-quality development [4][6] Banking Sector Focus - The meeting called for large banks to enhance their role in serving the real economy while encouraging small and medium-sized banks to focus on their core responsibilities and strengthen capital [5][6] - It emphasized the importance of implementing structural monetary policy tools effectively and supporting key areas such as technological innovation, consumption, small and micro enterprises, and stabilizing foreign trade [5][6] Real Estate Development - The article discusses the importance of constructing a new model for real estate development, which is crucial for addressing the significant changes in supply and demand dynamics in the real estate market [8][10] - The central government has prioritized stabilizing the real estate market and promoting a new development model, as indicated in recent political meetings [8][14] Challenges and Recommendations - The real estate sector faces challenges such as high debt levels among developers and insufficient supply of affordable housing, necessitating a shift towards a new development model that balances market forces with guarantees [9][10] - Experts suggest that reforms should focus on housing, land, fiscal, and financial systems to achieve a stable and sustainable real estate market [13][14]

文/ 云南国际信托有限公司研究发展部负责 人 黄冬萍 ，云南信托国际有限公司 研究发展部研究员 王虹珊 作为信托制度良性运行的 "基础设施"，股权信托登记制度的完善不仅是 盘 活 存 量 信 托 资 产 的 关 键 环 节 ， 更 是 推 动 我 国 信 托 业 从 粗 放 型 " 规 模 驱 动"向精细化"功能驱动"转型跃迁的重要制度保障。北京、杭州等地开展 的股权信托登记试点工作，有效提升了信托财产登记的规范性、准确性与 完整性。本文以此为焦点，深入分析当前股权信托登记制度面临的现实困 境，探讨其完善路径，并展望相关的业务创新方向。 以《信托法》第十条为起点论股权信托登记制度的构建 完善的信托登记制度在规范信托业务流程、明晰股权信托的设立与生效标准、界定各方权利义务、规范信托财产的管理与处分行为以及减少潜在纠纷等方 面具有重要作用。根据《信托法》第十条规定，以股权等须办理财产登记的财产设立信托的，应依法办理信托登记，该登记是信托财产获得独立性的法定 要件。我国现行立法在信托股权登记方面采登记生效主义，股权依法转移给受托人后，委托和受托人应共同申请办理股东名册变更手续。然而，《信托 法》中关于信托财产登记的 ...

Global Trade Current Characteristics - Global trade has reached a historical high, with total goods and services trade expected to reach $33 trillion in 2024, driven primarily by service trade. China's total import and export volume is projected to reach 43.85 trillion RMB in 2024, marking a 5% year-on-year increase and setting a new record [3]. Trade Protectionism and Supply Chain Restructuring - Trade protectionism is on the rise, particularly among Western countries led by the United States, which are implementing policies to reverse trade deficits and protect domestic industries. These actions are increasing global production costs and threatening the stability of global supply chains [5]. - The global supply chain is showing clear signs of "regionalization" and "politicization," with major economies accelerating the restructuring of industrial chains through policy interventions. The U.S. is promoting "nearshoring" and "friend-shoring," while Europe is focusing on green transformation and digital development [5]. Multilateral Mechanism Reconstruction and Regional Cooperation - The traditional multilateral governance framework, dominated by institutions like the WTO and IMF, is increasingly failing due to destructive actions from the U.S. Regional trade agreements are becoming key tools for reshaping the global economic landscape, with frameworks like CPTPP, RCEP, and USMCA enhancing regional cooperation [5]. Emerging Market Role Transformation - Emerging economies, particularly large economies within the G20 such as China, India, Brazil, Russia, and Mexico, have transitioned from being "passive participants" to "active influencers" in global trade. Their deep integration into the global economy has significantly enhanced their economic spillover effects, making them core drivers of global trade growth [6]. Future Development Trends in Global Trade - Trade protectionism will persist but face more counterbalances, as emerging economies gain more influence and international organizations push for trade liberalization. The U.S. may continue to implement tariffs under various pretexts, but the collective opposition from emerging markets will increase [9]. - The trend of regionalization in global trade will strengthen, with regional trade agreements playing a crucial role in optimizing supply chain layouts. This shift will prioritize security and resilience over mere efficiency, potentially leading to fragmented global supply chains and increased operational costs for multinational companies [9]. - There will be a deep adjustment in trade structures, with an increasing share of service trade and high-value goods. Digital services and green technology products are expected to become new engines of trade growth, while the U.S. maintains its trade advantages in high-tech sectors, albeit facing challenges from other countries' rising innovation capabilities [10].

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of sustainable information disclosure for listed companies in China, highlighting the progress made in the regulatory framework and the increasing rate of disclosure among companies [4][5][6]. Summary by Sections Sustainable Disclosure System - The China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) has established a sustainable disclosure system for listed companies, which includes mandatory guidelines from stock exchanges and reference guidelines for best practices [4][6]. - The new "National Nine Articles" aims to enhance the sustainable information disclosure system for listed companies, marking the first systematic regulation in this area [4][6]. Disclosure Rate and Market Impact - In 2023, 1,869 listed companies disclosed their 2024 sustainable reports, achieving an overall disclosure rate of 34.7%, an increase of approximately 10 percentage points compared to the previous two years [5][6][7]. - The market capitalization of the disclosing companies accounts for about 70% of the total market [5][6]. Quality of Disclosure - The content of the disclosures has become more detailed and objective, with 99.3% of companies reporting quantitative indicators, and over 80% disclosing more than 25 indicators [7]. - There has been a significant increase in the disclosure of climate-related risks and greenhouse gas emissions, with 62.1% and 65.9% of companies respectively reporting these metrics [7]. Governance and Focused Topics - Companies are increasingly establishing governance structures for sustainability, with 67.3% having a governance framework and 63.9% disclosing strategic information [7]. - The introduction of guidelines has led to a more focused approach to sustainability topics, with increased attention on issues such as climate change and fair treatment of small and medium enterprises [7]. ESG Ratings Improvement - By the end of last year, one-third of companies in the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets saw improvements in their MSCI ESG ratings, with the proportion of companies rated AAA or AA rising from 0% five years ago to 7.2% [7]. Future Directions - The CSRC plans to continue refining the sustainable disclosure system by learning from international practices while adapting to local conditions [9][10]. - The focus will be on gradually implementing mandatory disclosures for key companies, with approximately 400 companies required to disclose by 2026, while encouraging voluntary disclosures from others [10][11]. - The emphasis will remain on high-quality development as the foundation for effective sustainable disclosures, with ongoing training and support for companies [11].

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the critical role of innovative pharmaceuticals as a new productive force for human health, driven by the increasing global population and healthcare demands, particularly in the context of China's evolving pharmaceutical landscape [4][5]. Group 1: Financial Support for Innovative Pharmaceuticals - The innovative pharmaceutical industry is characterized by advanced multidisciplinary knowledge, high-end talent aggregation, and significant capital intensity with long cycles, making it a clear growth sector [8]. - By 2050, the global market share of Chinese innovative pharmaceuticals is expected to increase from less than 5% to 30-35%, potentially generating an industry output value of 30-40 trillion RMB [6]. - The financial system in China needs to upgrade to better understand the intrinsic rules of innovative pharmaceuticals, focusing on a systematic, layered, and tool-based financial support approach throughout the drug lifecycle [6][7]. Group 2: Key Aspects of Innovative Drug Development - Precise and scientific project initiation is crucial for ensuring resource allocation to the most promising projects, thereby enhancing R&D success rates and reducing failure risks [9]. - Intellectual property protection serves as a sustainable competitive advantage for innovative pharmaceutical companies, helping them establish a "moat" against competitors [10]. - The Chemistry, Manufacturing, and Controls (CMC) process is essential for efficiently transitioning innovative drugs from the laboratory to commercialization, encompassing all critical steps from raw material selection to final product quality control [11]. Group 3: Clinical Trials and Market Strategies - Innovative clinical trial centers should enhance trial quality and efficiency while safeguarding participant rights, and improve communication with international regulatory bodies [13][14]. - A new product launch strategy based on value creation and delivery is necessary to navigate the challenges faced by pharmaceutical companies amid a wave of upcoming product launches [15]. - Out-licensing has become a vital bridge connecting local innovations with global markets, highlighting the strategic pathways for Chinese pharmaceutical companies [15]. Group 4: Investment and Financing Mechanisms - Angel investment plays a significant role in supporting early-stage biotech companies, while venture capital needs to refine its evaluation mechanisms for intellectual property and CMC transitions [16][17]. - The IPO journey for innovative pharmaceutical companies is fraught with challenges, including high R&D costs and market competition, necessitating robust financial strategies [18]. - Mergers and acquisitions are key for enriching technology and product pipelines, expanding markets, and integrating resources within the innovative pharmaceutical sector [19]. Group 5: Payment Systems and Global Perspectives - The core goal of the innovative drug payment system is to balance patient accessibility, corporate returns, and stable fund operations, marking the completion of the value transformation loop in pharmaceuticals [21]. - Learning from the U.S. financial support system for innovative pharmaceuticals can provide insights for developing a tailored financial support framework in China [22].

Core Viewpoint - The establishment of the Digital Renminbi International Operation Center in Shanghai marks a significant step towards enhancing the internationalization of the digital renminbi, aiming to improve its global circulation and acceptance in international markets [3][12]. Group 1: Digital Renminbi International Operation Center - The Digital Renminbi International Operation Center has officially commenced operations, following the plan announced by the People's Bank of China (PBOC) during the Lujiazui Forum in June [3][4]. - The center features three main platforms: cross-border payment, blockchain infrastructure, and digital asset services, which are designed to enhance the operational capabilities of the digital renminbi in international markets [4][12]. Group 2: Cross-Border Payment Platform - The cross-border payment platform aims to address pain points in traditional cross-border payment models, focusing on technological integration, ecosystem reconstruction, and regulatory innovation [6]. - The goal is to create a secure, efficient, and inclusive global payment network, providing a "China solution" for a new ecosystem of cross-border payments that is "lossless, interoperable, and compliant" [6]. Group 3: Blockchain Service Platform - The blockchain service platform serves as a key hub for on-chain digital renminbi payment services and standardized blockchain transaction information transfer [8]. - It aims to enhance interoperability and transaction efficiency across various industry blockchain networks, reducing integration costs for participants [8]. Group 4: Digital Asset Platform - The digital asset platform focuses on the compliant operation of assets on the blockchain, supporting various asset types such as bonds, bills, electronic vouchers, and carbon credits [9]. - It aims to digitize the entire process of issuance, registration, custody, and trading while ensuring compliance and preventing financial risks like fictitious transactions and double pledges [9]. Group 5: Global Payment System Improvement - The PBOC is actively promoting improvements in the global cross-border payment system, adhering to the principles of "lossless, compliant, and interoperable" as foundational guidelines for the construction of cross-border infrastructure for legal digital currencies [11]. - The center is expected to play a crucial role in forming global central bank digital currency standards, addressing potential fragmentation in digital currency development [11]. Group 6: Internationalization Strategy - The core value of the Digital Renminbi International Operation Center lies in significantly expanding the network effect of the digital renminbi, enhancing its global liquidity and acceptance [13]. - The strategic focus has shifted from domestic retail testing to exploring applications in cross-border trade and international financial services, aiming to increase the global market share and competitiveness of the digital renminbi [13].

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