美联储在会议 声明 中 将经济活动描述 ， 从 "温和扩张"上调至"稳健扩张"，指出失业率出现企稳迹象，但就业增长仍 较 低迷，通胀偏高。 美联储主席鲍威尔在议息会议后的讲话中表示， 加息并非下一步行动的基本假设 。 这 排除 了 加息 的 可能 ， 缓解 了 市场 的相关 担忧。 鲍威尔还指出， 若关税导致的商品通胀（占当前通胀主因）触顶回落，将考虑放松政策。 这说明美联储的 降息条件锚定通胀 。 他没有 明确降息时点 ， 称 未来政策将 "逐次会议决策"，取决于就业、通胀数据演变。 鲍威尔还 强调美联储需远离政治干预，维护决策公信力。 文/《清华金融评论》 王茅 美联储在1月2 9日的议息会议上决定维持基准利率不变，美联储主席鲍威 尔表示，加息并非下一步行动的基本假设， 若关税导致的商品通胀（占 当前通胀主因）触顶回落，将考虑放松政策。 相对鸽派的言论，叠加地 缘风险与宽松预期，推动金价银价再创新高。 北京时间 1月29日凌晨，美联储在结束了为期两天的议息会议后宣布，将联邦基金利率维持在3.50%～3.75%不变，这符合市场的普遍预期，也是美联储自 2025年9月起连续三次降息后首次暂停行动。 美联储决议 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes that despite facing significant domestic and international pressures, the national economy managed to achieve its development goals in 2025, but it still faces numerous challenges and issues that need to be addressed for sustainable growth in 2026 [2][4][21]. Economic Performance in 2025 - In 2025, the GDP growth rate was 5.0%, maintaining the same level as in 2024, showcasing the economy's resilience amid a complex international environment and persistent domestic downward pressure [5][21]. - The overall public budget revenue increased by 0.8% year-on-year, while industrial enterprise profits rose by 0.1%, and per capita disposable income grew by 5.0% [5][21]. Challenges Faced - The main challenges include a slowdown in global economic growth, increased uncertainty, insufficient domestic demand, and weak investment and consumption, which necessitate a focus on expanding domestic demand [3][21][22]. - The unemployment rate remained stable at 5.2%, with youth unemployment particularly high at 16.9% for ages 16-24 [16][21]. Inflation and Price Stability - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) remained stable, with an overall increase of 0% in 2025, indicating a prolonged period of low inflation, which can enhance purchasing power but may also dampen producer motivation [9][12]. - Core CPI showed a gradual increase, reaching 1.2% by the end of the year, suggesting a potential recovery in economic activity [14][21]. Trade Balance - The international balance of payments for goods and services showed a significant surplus of 52,540 billion yuan, an increase of 20,467 billion yuan from the previous year, indicating strong economic resilience and competitiveness [18][21]. Outlook for 2026 - The article highlights that expanding domestic demand is crucial for maintaining stable economic growth in 2026, with a focus on increasing the resident consumption rate as a primary goal [22][27]. - The challenges of insufficient demand, particularly in consumption and investment, are expected to persist, necessitating targeted policies to stimulate growth [23][24][25]. Strategies for Growth - The government aims to increase the resident consumption rate by 1.0 percentage point in 2026, emphasizing the need for effective policies and reforms to boost consumption, particularly in services like healthcare and entertainment [27][30]. - Improving the quality and supply of healthcare and entertainment services is essential to unlock the potential for increased consumer spending [33][30].

Core Viewpoint - The performance indicators of the banking industry in 2025 show significant improvement, with operational trends becoming more favorable and asset quality continuously optimizing [3]. Revenue Performance - As of January 29, 2026, among the 10 listed banks that disclosed their 2025 performance reports, 9 banks reported revenue growth, while only one bank (CITIC Bank) experienced a decline [5]. - Among the four major joint-stock banks, three achieved total revenues exceeding 200 billion yuan, with Shanghai Pudong Development Bank leading in growth at 1.88%, followed by Industrial Bank at 0.24%, and China Merchants Bank at 0.01%. CITIC Bank reported a revenue decline of 0.55% [5][6]. Net Profit Growth - All 10 listed banks reported positive growth in net profit attributable to shareholders in 2025, with 9 banks achieving both revenue and profit growth, indicating overall stable performance [8]. - China Merchants Bank led with a net profit of 150.18 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.21%. Industrial Bank followed with a net profit of 77.47 billion yuan, up 0.34%, while CITIC Bank reported a net profit of 70.62 billion yuan, up 2.98%. Shanghai Pudong Development Bank's net profit grew significantly by 10.52% to 50.02 billion yuan [8][10]. Asset Quality - The non-performing loan (NPL) ratio among the 10 banks showed a general decline, with five banks reducing their NPL ratios compared to the previous year, while three remained stable and two saw slight increases [12]. - The overall NPL ratio for the banks improved, with Shanghai Pudong Development Bank showing the most significant decline of 0.1 percentage points to 1.26%. China Merchants Bank and CITIC Bank both decreased by 0.01 percentage points to 0.94% and 1.15%, respectively [12][15]. - The provision coverage ratio saw a general decline, with eight banks reporting lower ratios compared to the previous year, although the overall provision cushion remains adequate [13]. Future Outlook - The banking sector is expected to benefit from monetary policy easing, which may alleviate margin pressures and support profit growth through liability optimization and business structure adjustments [18]. - Banks are focusing on quality and efficiency in operations, with an emphasis on risk management and customer base strengthening as they navigate ongoing industry challenges [18].

1月28日 ， 国新办举行新闻发布会，国务院国资委介绍2 025年国资央企 高质量发展情 况， 国务院国资 委副主任庞骁刚、国务院国资委企业改革 局 局 长 林 庆 苗 、 国 务 院 国 资 委 科 技 创 新 局 局 长 张 剑 龙 出 席 会 议 并 介 绍 20 25 年 国 资 央 企 高 质 量 发 展 情 况 ， 本 次 会 议 国 资 委 针 对 央 企 重 组 整 合，"AI+"等表态 ， 同时透露， 正在研究起草培育新兴支柱产业文 件 ， 加快推进交通物流、智慧能源、绿色低碳、金融服务等重点领域数据 资源开放开发 。 此前，国资委 在京召开地方国资委负责人会议，研究提 出 " 十 五 五 " 工 作 思 路 时 也 明 确 ， 着 力 实 施 进 一 步 深 化 国 资 国 企 改 革 方 案， 有效防控重点领域风险，健全长效机制，牢牢守住不发生系统性风 险的底线。 数据显示，截至2025年底，中央企业资产总额突破95万亿元，2025年实现利润总额2.5万亿元，完成固定资产投资5.1万亿元，上缴税费2.5万亿元，有效带 动产业链上下游企业融通发展，为我国顺利完成经济社会发展主要目标任务提供 ...

导语： 过去四十年来，中国成功探索并践行了融合规划、创新与开放的混合发展模式。当前，在复杂的地缘政治、地缘经济格局与技术创 新浪潮下，中国经济已呈现出新的发展态势。这一转变对中国经济自身意味着什么？中国经济是否已实现完全崛起？又将对全球经济产生何 种影响？ 1月21日，在瑞士达沃斯举行的世界经济论坛年会上，多位专家学者围绕"中国经济：全面崛起"这一核心议题，就复杂地缘政治背 景下中国经济的韧性及转型进行了深入探讨。 Q： 2025年，全球经济因主要经济体发起的贸易战留下深刻印记。 中国经济如何应对全球贸易战？从中能够洞察中国经济的哪些核心特征？ 世界经济论坛理事会成员 朱民 ： 中国经济在过去五年确实面临多重严峻挑战。首先是新冠疫情的冲击，随后是房地产行业的深度调整。2017年中国公寓销售面积 约为17亿平方米，目前已缩减至8.5亿平方米，行业规模减半。同时，地方融资平台面临巨额债务压力，消费市场也呈现疲软态 势。 尽管困境重重，但中国通过精准有效的宏观政策成功应对，尤其在房地产领域有效规避了系统性危机，这一成果实属不易。而这段 经历也让我们深刻认识到，必须彻底转变增长模式，不能再依赖房地产、地方融资、基础设 ...

以下文章来源于财经杂志 ，作者徐奇渊 财经杂志 . 《财经》杂志官方微信。《财经》杂志由中国证券市场研究中心主办，1998年创刊，秉承"独立、独家、独到"的新闻理念，以权威性、公正性、专业性报 道见长，是政经学界决策者、研究者、管理者的必读刊物。 文/中国社会科学院美国研究所研究员 徐奇渊 20 26年达沃斯论坛落幕，人们意识到，一个以交易、筹码、不确定性和 多极博弈为特征的新时代已然开启，"中国"一词高频出现在各类分论坛中 ——正如资深观察者所言："中国没有占据舞台，却占据了坐标系"。 从1月19日至23日，笔者随团参加了在瑞士达沃斯举办的世界经济论坛。由于行程1月初才最终确定，只能预订到距离会场较远的酒店，距离会场两小时车 程（每天往返四小时），不过每晚价格仍约2800元。头一天上山的途中，笔者还遭遇了比往年更严格的安检，抽查过程用了半个多小时。价格如此之高， 安检如此之严，这次论坛注定不平凡。 果然，论坛甫一开幕便呈现出两个截然不同的叙事维度：一边是科技巨擘们对人工智能（AI）未来的热烈畅想——英伟达CEO黄仁勋强调，AI正成为新 的基础设施，而且已经触发"人类史上最大规模的基础设施建设"。马斯克的意外 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the evolving landscape of geopolitical economics and its impact on economic policy objectives, emphasizing the need for a careful analysis of resource allocation and the potential long-term consequences of prioritizing geopolitical goals over economic efficiency [4][5][6]. Group 1: Geopolitical Economic Context - China is facing unprecedented external challenges due to rising unilateralism and protectionism, as highlighted in the "14th Five-Year Plan" [4]. - Zhou Xiaochuan, former governor of the People's Bank of China, provided insights on the three key dimensions of geopolitical economics during a closed-door seminar, offering new perspectives on the current situation [4]. Group 2: Changes in Economic Policy Objectives - Economic policies have shifted from primarily focusing on development to incorporating geopolitical considerations, which may lead to suboptimal resource allocation [5]. - Historical examples, such as the Cold War, illustrate how prioritizing geopolitical goals can adversely affect a nation's economic strength in the long run [5][6]. Group 3: Resource Allocation and Economic Efficiency - The article presents a microeconomic example from China in the late 20th century, where tariff distortions led to overcapacity in the textile industry, demonstrating the importance of optimal resource allocation [6][7]. - Measures taken for geopolitical reasons, such as tariffs, can result in significant resource misallocation and long-term competitiveness issues [7][9]. Group 4: Current Tariff Wars - The U.S. tariff strategy includes both a general tariff rate and differential tariffs based on product or country, which contradicts established international trade rules [9][10]. - The imposition of tariffs can lead to resource misallocation and may provoke retaliatory measures from other countries, undermining overall economic efficiency [9][10]. Group 5: Multilateral Rules and Challenges - The article emphasizes the importance of multilateralism and the need to support reforms within the World Trade Organization (WTO) to address current challenges in international trade [12][13]. - The concept of origin certification is discussed, highlighting its limitations in the context of globalized supply chains and the need for reform to better reflect value addition [14][15].

2026年1月22日，中国人民银行召开2026年宏观审慎工作会议，会议以习近平新时代中国特色社会主义思想为指导，深入学习贯彻党的二十 届四中全会和中央经济工作会议精神，落实中国人民银行工作会议要求，总结2025年宏观审慎管理和跨境人民币业务工作，分析当前形 势，部署2026年工作。中国人民银行党委委员、副行长陶玲出席会议并讲话。 会议认为，2025年中国人民银行加快构建宏观审慎管理体系，完善治理机制，夯实宏观审慎监测评估的规范化、标准化和实战化能力，加 强系统重要性金融机构、金融市场、跨境资本流动等重点领域宏观审慎管理。推进人民币国际化，完善人民币跨境使用安排，优化货币互 换和清算行网络，强化人民币融资货币功能，进一步支持贸易投资便利化，持续提高服务实体经济能力。 会议要求，2026年宏观审慎工作要继续按照构建覆盖全面的宏观审慎管理体系部署， 强化中央银行宏观审慎管理功能，持续完善宏观审慎 和金融稳定委员会工作机制，逐步拓展宏观审慎政策覆盖范围，前瞻性研判系统性金融风险隐患，创新丰富政策工具箱，维护金融市场稳 健运行和金融体系整体稳定 。以服务构建新发展格局为导向，进一步完善人民币跨境使用政策，促进货物贸易便 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the strategic shift of leading life insurance companies towards mid-range medical insurance, emphasizing its role as a key entry point for building a health ecosystem in response to changing demographics and healthcare reforms [5][6]. Group 1: Industry Trends - During the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, health insurance is transitioning from "financial compensation" to comprehensive "health solutions" [5]. - Major life insurance companies, such as Ping An and AIA, are significantly increasing their investment in mid-range medical insurance, indicating a fundamental shift in the industry's health insurance strategy [6]. - By the end of 2025, the DRG/DIP reform will be fully implemented nationwide, which is expected to drive insurance companies to offer products that effectively address medical payment issues [6]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - The number of insurance agents has drastically decreased from 9 million in 2019 to over 200,000 in 2024, necessitating a shift from wealth-oriented products to mid-range medical insurance to attract quality-conscious clients [7]. - As consumer income rises and health awareness increases, the demand for medical services is shifting from "basic coverage" to "quality enhancement," with mid-range medical insurance filling a significant market gap [7]. Group 3: Product Definition and Advantages - Mid-range medical insurance is defined as a commercial medical insurance that operates independently of basic medical insurance, covering special departments in public hospitals and some private hospitals, while providing comprehensive health management services [8]. - Unlike traditional medical insurance, mid-range medical insurance does not require prior reimbursement from basic medical insurance, offering more flexible deductible designs and covering non-reimbursable drugs and treatments [8]. Group 4: Company Strategies - Leading life insurance companies leverage offline agent channels to promote mid-range medical insurance and critical illness insurance, integrating product offerings with value-added services to enhance customer engagement [10]. - Companies like Zhong An Insurance and Da Di Property Insurance focus on short-term insurance operations and rapid iteration, primarily through online channels, but face challenges in long-term coverage capabilities [9]. Group 5: Recommendations for Stakeholders - Regulatory bodies should expedite the standardization of insurance clauses to align with medical advancements, reducing potential disputes over claims [11]. - Insurance companies are encouraged to adopt a long-term perspective, integrating mid-range medical insurance into their core strategies and enhancing agent training to facilitate a transition towards health insurance [11]. - Consumers are advised to recognize the importance of medical coverage and consider mid-range medical insurance as a fundamental part of their health security, especially in light of the upcoming DRG/DIP reforms [11].

Group 1: Banking Sector Performance - The first batch of 2025 performance reports from listed banks has been released, with eight banks including China Merchants Bank and Huatai Bank reporting positive growth in net profit attributable to shareholders, with seven of them achieving both revenue and net profit growth [6][7] - Key characteristics observed among these banks include steady asset expansion, improved asset quality with no significant increase in non-performing loan ratios, and increased provisioning efforts despite a decline in coverage ratios [7] - The outlook for 2026 suggests that benefiting from monetary policy, the decline in interest margins is expected to stabilize, potentially leading to a rebound in net interest income growth, while insurance policies are anticipated to boost fee income [7] Group 2: Fiscal and Monetary Policies - The Ministry of Finance has released five important fiscal and financial policies aimed at stimulating economic growth, including optimizing personal consumption loan subsidies and implementing special guarantees for private investment [8][9] - These policies are designed to lower financing costs across various sectors, enhance credit demand in key areas, and improve the efficiency of fund utilization, thereby injecting strong momentum into the economy [9][10] - The government emphasizes a combination of proactive fiscal policies and moderately loose monetary policies to support high-quality development and address challenges in the economy [8] Group 3: Regulatory Developments - The China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) has announced the addition of 14 futures and options products as specific domestic varieties, marking a significant step in the internationalization of China's futures market [11] - This expansion is the largest in history, with the total number of specific domestic varieties reaching 38, and aims to enhance China's pricing power in global markets [11] - The CSRC's recent actions reflect a zero-tolerance approach towards market manipulation, as evidenced by a substantial fine of 1.02 billion yuan imposed for long-term stock price manipulation [12] Group 4: Global Economic Outlook - The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has slightly raised its global economic growth forecast for 2026 to 3.3%, reflecting resilience despite challenges such as trade disruptions [13] - Emerging markets and developing economies are expected to maintain growth rates above 4.0%, while advanced economies are projected to grow at 1.8% and 1.7% in 2026 and 2027, respectively [13]