Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the transition of sustainable development from a strategic concept to a critical measure of high-quality economic growth in China, particularly highlighting 2025 as a pivotal year for deepening practical implementation of sustainability initiatives [3]. Group 1: Policy and Regulatory Framework - The Chinese government has introduced several policies, including the "Central Enterprises ESG Special Action Guidelines (2025)" and the "Management Measures for Information Disclosure of Listed Companies," mandating the integration of sustainable development into corporate governance and moving from optional to standardized disclosure [3]. - Financial institutions are evolving from advocates of sustainability to key actors, embedding ESG principles into their strategies and business processes, and promoting green finance and responsible investment [3]. Group 2: Case Collection Initiative - Tsinghua Financial Review has launched a "2025 Sustainable Development Typical Case Collection" to create a high-level platform for sharing best practices in green finance and sustainability governance [4]. - The initiative aims to collect, select, and showcase exemplary cases that reflect significant achievements in sustainable development, thereby establishing industry benchmarks and facilitating experience sharing [4]. Group 3: Submission Guidelines - The case collection is open to banks, insurance companies, securities firms, asset management institutions, and listed companies, focusing on innovative and impactful sustainability practices [6]. - Submissions should cover various themes, including climate change response, pollution management, waste treatment, and social responsibility, among others [7]. - Cases must demonstrate the submitting entity's positive contributions to sustainable development and include comprehensive data and visual materials to illustrate their impact [8].

系统性风险的度量 估计市场期望超额收益率并不是一件容易的事情。对于资本资产定价模型，以及在其基础上发展而来的多因子模型等定价模型，整体市场的期望超额收益 都是关键的定价因素。从理论上讲，期望超额收益率是对未来收益（风险）的展望。只有包含了未来宏观经济走势的信息才会影响整体市场期望超额收益 率，而不是当前已经实现的宏观经济运行状态。以往的资产定价文献普遍使用股票现货市场的历史平均超额收益，代替市场期望超额收益。这样做有两个 缺点：一是实际的市场超额收益可能与市场期望超额收益存在一定偏差；二是基于历史数据的测算存在明显的滞后性，难以用于预测。此外，宏观经济指 标不但更新频率较低，还存在信息时滞与采样不足的问题，不利于在多因子模型框架下实时预测市场收益率。基于以上考虑，现有文献大多使用股票市场 的当前特征，特别是价格特征测算股票市场期望收益率。然而，价格特征对未来收益率的预测表现与理论推断存在较大差异。 那么，一个自然的想法是，是否可以使用现货市场以外的信息刻画市场系统性风险，并估计市场期望超额收益率。这是因为，不同金融市场存在特征差 异，投资者往往选择在不同市场进行交易，使得不同市场反映的信息有所相通。其中，金融 ...

Group 1 - The article discusses the implementation of a loan interest subsidy policy for small and micro enterprises in China, aimed at helping them overcome difficulties and promote high-quality economic development [2][3] - The policy will support fixed asset loans and new policy financial tools for eligible small and micro private enterprises starting from January 1, 2026, with a subsidy rate of 1.5% per year for up to two years [3] - The maximum loan amount eligible for the subsidy is 50 million yuan, with a maximum subsidy of 1.5 million yuan per enterprise [3] Group 2 - The supported sectors include key industrial chains, production service industries, and emerging fields such as artificial intelligence, with specific focus areas like new energy vehicles, medical equipment, and industrial software [3] - The Ministry of Finance and the financial regulatory authority will conduct joint inspections to ensure compliance, with strict penalties for serious violations by enterprises or banks involved in fraudulent subsidy operations [3]

1月20日上午，国新办举行新闻发布会，介绍落实中央经济工作会议精神，推动"十五五"实现良好开局有关情况。 国家发展改革委副主任王昌林在国新办新闻发布会上表示，今年将 研究制定出台2026—2030年扩大内需战略实施方案。 王昌林还表示，将进一步细化地方招商引资 ，加强重点行业价格监管，依法依规治理企业低价无序竞争 ，形成优质优价良性竞争的市场秩 序，大力实施质量品牌战略，破解内卷竞争。 国家发展改革委综合司司长周陈在国新办新闻发布会上表示，正在谋划推进一批 "十五五"时期高技术产业标志性引领性重大工程 。 发布会上介绍，要发挥好国家创业投资基金行业标杆作用， 研究设立国家级并购基金 ，加强政府投资、基金布局规划等，促进创新创业创 造，加快培育和发展新质生产力。 消费品以旧换新方面，将打击违法行为，严格执行审核，精准识别各类违法违规行为。 严格价格管理 ，对于骗补套补、先涨后补等行为，发 现一起、查处一起、曝光一起、打击一起。 王昌林还表示，着力解决群众急难愁盼，民生福祉实现新提升。面对人民群众新期待，我们进一步加强普惠性、基础性、兜底性民生建设， 努力促进高质量充分就业，全年城镇调查失业率平均为5.2%，有序 ...

中国人民银行授权全国银行间同业拆借中心公布，2026年1月20日贷款市场报价利率（LPR）为： 1年期LPR为3.0%，5年期以上LPR为3.5% 。两个期限LPR均与上月持平。 来源丨中国人民银行 编辑丨兰银帆 审核丨许晨辉 往期回顾 Review of Past Articles - 郑栅洁主任主持召开民营企业座谈会 就"十五五"时期服务业发展听取意见建议 01 02 等你来投！《清华金融评论》12月刊 " 黄金投资逻辑：历史周期与趋势演变 " 征稿启事 小媒求你加·3 标 TSINGHUA PBCSF TSINGHUA Financial Revi 清华五道厂 明年终的未来 《清华金融评论》专注于经济会融 政策解读与建言,设置一个封面专 题以及宏观经济、政策与监管、 银行与保险、资本市场、财富与资 管、金融与科技、论文故事汇、道 口研究、国际九个专业栏目,所有 栏目都期待这样的来稿: 在风格上 既可以是分析研判式的文稿,也可以是解读评论型的文稿, 既可以建言献策经济金融理论与实践,也可以归纳总结新经 济金融模式与案例。 在形式上 无需复杂的理论与计量模型,无需过多的图形与数据表格, 无需臃肿的注释与参考 ...

Key Points - The core viewpoint of the article emphasizes the steady growth of China's economy in 2025, with a GDP growth rate of 5.0%, despite facing multiple pressures and challenges [8][9]. Group 1: Economic Growth - The preliminary calculation shows that the GDP for 2025 reached 14,018.79 billion yuan, reflecting a 5.0% increase from the previous year [8]. - The first industry added value was 933.47 billion yuan (3.9% growth), the second industry was 499.65 billion yuan (4.5% growth), and the third industry was 808.79 billion yuan (5.4% growth) [8]. - Quarterly GDP growth rates were 5.4% in Q1, 5.2% in Q2, 4.8% in Q3, and 4.5% in Q4, with a quarter-on-quarter growth of 1.2% in Q4 [8]. Group 2: Policy Initiatives - The State Council meeting highlighted the need to accelerate the cultivation of new growth points in service consumption and implement measures to boost consumption [9][10]. - The meeting emphasized the importance of improving the quality of service consumption and addressing issues related to credit, standards, and safety management [9][10]. - A long-term mechanism for promoting consumption will be established, including the "15th Five-Year Plan" for consumption expansion and urban-rural resident income increase plans [10]. Group 3: Financial Regulation - The Financial Regulatory Bureau's 2026 work meeting focused on summarizing 2025's work and planning key tasks for 2026, emphasizing risk prevention and high-quality development [11][13]. - The meeting underscored the importance of enhancing financial services to support economic stability and growth, with a focus on structural support and long-term capital guidance [13]. Group 4: Monetary Policy - The People's Bank of China announced several monetary policies aimed at supporting high-quality economic development, including a 0.25 percentage point reduction in various structural monetary policy tool rates [14]. - The policies aim to lower financing costs for the real economy and guide financial resources towards key sectors such as technology innovation and green transformation [14]. Group 5: Market Stability - The China Securities Regulatory Commission emphasized maintaining market stability and preventing extreme fluctuations, with a focus on long-term value investment [15]. - Measures will be taken to strengthen market monitoring and prevent market manipulation, ensuring a stable trading environment [15]. Group 6: Commodity Prices - International gold and silver prices reached historical highs, with gold at $4,671.07 per ounce and silver at $93.194 per ounce, driven by economic uncertainty and inflation pressures [16][17]. - The demand for gold and silver as safe-haven assets is expected to continue increasing, reflecting market concerns about future economic prospects [17]. Group 7: Hainan Free Trade Port - Hainan's offshore duty-free sales reached 4.86 billion yuan in the first month of closure, marking a 46.8% year-on-year increase [18]. - The strong performance of the duty-free market indicates robust consumer enthusiasm and highlights Hainan's role in promoting high-level opening-up [18].

Core Viewpoint - The current rise in gold prices, which has increased by 52.06% in 2025 and over 5% this year, reflects a strong investment value and is driven by growing global macroeconomic uncertainties [1]. Group 1: Attributes Determining Gold Prices - Gold has three main attributes: monetary, financial, and commodity. The monetary attribute refers to gold's role as a general equivalent and its function as a central bank reserve, which has diminished but still exists as a counter to the US dollar [3]. - The financial attribute highlights gold as an investment asset, particularly through gold ETFs, which have lowered the entry barrier for investors and amplified price volatility [3]. - The commodity attribute pertains to gold's use in jewelry and technology, with demand increasing in countries like China and India due to economic growth [4]. Group 2: Historical Bull Markets in Gold - The first major bull market occurred from 1968 to 1980, where gold prices surged from $35/oz to $850/oz, a total increase of 2328.57% [8][10]. - The second bull market spanned from 2001 to 2011, with prices rising from $272.50/oz to $1921.15/oz, marking a 605.01% increase [11][15]. - Both bull markets were driven by significant challenges to the US dollar's credibility, with the first linked to economic crises and the second to the aftermath of the tech bubble and the financial crisis [10][15]. Group 3: Current Gold Bull Market Analysis - The current bull market began in 2022, with gold prices rising from $1614/oz to a peak of $4690.88/oz, a maximum increase of 190.64% [19]. - The primary driver of this bull market is the significant increase in gold purchases by central banks, which reached 456.9 tons in Q3 2022, a year-on-year increase of 404.30% [22]. - Central bank purchases have consistently outpaced other demand categories, indicating a shift in the gold market dynamics [23]. Group 4: Future Outlook for Gold - The total value of global central bank gold reserves is projected to exceed $3.93 trillion by the end of 2025, surpassing the total value of US Treasury holdings [26]. - Factors contributing to the ongoing demand for gold include the deterioration of US fiscal discipline, challenges to the US's international standing, and the potential decline of its technological edge [26][27]. - The current gold bull market is expected to last over ten years, with potential price increases comparable to historical bull markets, possibly exceeding 2000's 605.01% rise and approaching the 1970's 2328.57% increase [28].

2025年，面对国内外经济环境的复杂变化，在以习近平同志为核心的党中央坚强领导下，各地区各部门深入贯彻落实党中央、国务院决策部署， 坚定不移贯彻新发展理念、推动高质量发展，统筹国内国际两个大局，统筹发展和安全，实施更加积极有为的宏观政策，纵深推进全国统一大市 场建设，国民经济运行顶压前行、向新向优，高质量发展取得新成效，经济社会发展主要目标任务圆满实现，"十四五"胜利收官。 三、服务业平稳增长，现代服务业发展良好 全年服务业增加值比上年增长5.4%。其中，信息传输、软件和信息技术服务业，租赁和商务服务业，交通运输、仓储和邮政业，批发和零售 业，住宿和餐饮业增加值分别增长11.1%、10.3%、5.2%、5.0%、4.9%。12月份，服务业生产指数同比增长5.0%。其中，信息传输、软件和信息 技术服务业，租赁和商务服务业，金融业生产指数分别增长14.8%、11.3%、6.5%。1—11月份，规模以上服务业企业营业收入同比增长7.8%。12 月份，服务业商务活动指数为49.7%，比上月上升0.2个百分点；服务业业务活动预期指数为56.4%，上升0.5个百分点。其中，电信广播电视及卫 星传输服务、货币金融服务、资本 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the new characteristics and trends of Chinese enterprises going global, highlighting the significant impact this phenomenon may have on the global economic landscape and the competitive dynamics between developing and developed countries [4][5][14]. Group 1: Characteristics of Chinese Enterprises Going Global - Since 2018, the trend of Chinese enterprises going global has shown unprecedented diversity in terms of participants and destinations, with a wide range of industries involved and a significant scale of operations [4][5]. - The motivations for Chinese enterprises to go global have evolved, including market expansion, resource acquisition, strategic investments, technology transfer, and cost reduction due to rising domestic labor costs [7][10]. - A notable characteristic is the large number of enterprises, including small and medium-sized enterprises and individual entrepreneurs, participating in this global expansion, which is unprecedented in history [10]. - Chinese enterprises are venturing into various industries, from low-end manufacturing to high-tech sectors like electric vehicles and fintech, showcasing a comprehensive approach to globalization [11]. - The phenomenon of cluster-based industrial chain expansion is emerging, where enterprises leverage domestic supply chains to enhance efficiency and cost-effectiveness in foreign markets [12]. - The scale of Chinese enterprises going global is substantial, impacting local economies and elevating their industrial levels [12]. Group 2: Impact and Trends of Chinese Enterprises Going Global - The global presence of Chinese enterprises is likely to reshape the world economic structure, potentially leading to rapid industrial upgrades in developing countries and creating competitive relationships with developed nations [14]. - A new industrial chain and supply chain dominated by Chinese enterprises may emerge, with local businesses gradually adopting Chinese standards and practices, particularly in sectors where China leads technologically [15]. - The trend of Chinese enterprises going global is expected to become a major force in international industrial transfer and cross-border investment, as traditional patterns of labor-intensive manufacturing relocation are unlikely to recur [16]. - Challenges may arise due to varying national systems, cultures, and legal frameworks, which could lead to friction between China and other countries [16]. - The article emphasizes the need for strategic government support to facilitate the global expansion of Chinese enterprises, ensuring their rights and interests are protected while promoting sustainable international operations [23][24]. Group 3: Financial Services for Outbound Enterprises - The demand for comprehensive financial services is critical as Chinese enterprises expand globally, necessitating a strategic approach to cross-border capital flow management [31][32]. - Shanghai is proposed to be developed as a service center for outbound enterprises, providing a range of financial products and services tailored to their unique needs [34]. - Collaboration between large financial institutions and smaller ones is encouraged to create a robust financial service chain that supports the diverse needs of enterprises going global [39].

产业革命与金融理论的同频共振 大约2000年前，随着铁器在全球农业生产中的广泛使用，人类第一次拥有了在生活所需之外的少量物质冗余，这是人类最初的财富。犹太人在《塔木德》 中第一次提出了"1/3土地，1/3生意，1/3储蓄"的教条，这是一种0维方法。它没有任何寻求优化的努力，只是安于经验法则的现状，因此也不需要纳入任 何决定组合表现的努力。 大约100年前，两次工业革命的成果推动了人类生产能力几何级数的增长，财富的拥有者也不再像过去千年间只积累在王公贵族手中，财富积累的目的也 不再仅仅只是彰显特权和维持奢靡，新兴资产阶级将积累财富作为扩大生产能力的手段，本杰明·格雷厄姆开创性地提出应使用价值投资理念来挑选未来 的优胜者，如同创世般，资产配置方法论实现了"从0到1"的突破，投资价值摆脱了《塔木德》经验法则的束缚，成为决定最优配置目标的唯一维度。 大约50年前，第三次工业革命蓬勃兴起，人类从电气时代进入信息时代，财富的拥有者进一步下沉到普罗大众，而金融深化也为投资者带来了更加纷繁复 杂的资产类别，投资者和融资者双方互相审视，哈利·马科维茨和威廉·夏普共同开创的现代投资组合理论引入了风险调整收益的概念，也成为了市场上 ...