文/ 工银国际首席经济学家、中国首席经济学家论坛理事 程实 当前来看，美国经济的核心风险正从短期波动转向中长期预期的动摇，多 重结构性因素共同构成当前宏观经济层面需要审慎评估的不确定性变量。 当前来看，美国经济呈现出多重结构性错位与分化特征： 一是虚实部门的错位。实体部门与金融部门运行节奏明显背离，高利率通过融资成本与信贷可得性对投资与消费形成实质约束，而金融市场则在降息预期 与叙事主导下提前修复估值。名义紧缩的政策环境中，金融条件趋于宽松，而实体压力则被阶段性延后。 二是地区经济的分化。不同地区因产业结构、人口流动与财政条件差异，对高利率冲击和产业政策的敏感度明显不同，区域经济分化加剧，空间层面的不 均衡特征越发突出。 三是社会信心的冷却。收入与财富分配结构失衡叠加高通胀后遗效应，使中低收入与中产群体的风险缓冲能力持续削弱，社会信心由长期改善预期转向谨 慎防御，内需结构持续分化。最后是制度预期的动摇。长期以来，美联储的政策独立性被视为美元信用与资产价格稳定的重要锚点，而近期围绕央行职责 边界、政策取向以及未来反应函数的讨论明显升温，反映出市场正对货币政策可预期性进行重新评估。 值得注意的是，制度性预期一旦发 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the structural employment contradictions in China, which arise from mismatches between labor supply and demand due to deep adjustments in population and economic structures. It highlights the role of the AI technology revolution and government actions in addressing these contradictions and provides new theoretical perspectives and decision-making references for resolving structural employment issues [2][4]. Group 1: Structural Employment Contradictions - Structural employment contradictions are closely related to the transformation of economic structures, with significant changes in the labor market due to demographic shifts and economic adjustments. The mismatch between labor supply and demand, alongside difficulties in employment and recruitment, has become a primary issue in the employment sector [4][5]. - The formation and development of structural employment contradictions are linked to the decline of the population dividend and rising labor costs in low-skill industries, while high-skill industries struggle to grow and cannot effectively incentivize educational adjustments [4][5]. Group 2: AI Technology Revolution and Government Role - The article discusses how the AI technology revolution and government interventions can influence economic structure transformation and structural employment contradictions. It proposes a new theoretical framework that includes labor and employment structure changes, production and technology structure transformations, and time allocation in both industrial and household production sectors [5][6]. - The research highlights that the AI revolution simultaneously promotes automation in industrial and household sectors, affecting labor time allocation and industry structure trends, thereby deepening structural employment contradictions [5][6]. Group 3: Theoretical Analysis Framework - A systematic theoretical analysis framework is constructed to depict the mismatch between high and low-skill labor demand and supply. The model categorizes labor into high-skill and low-skill, analyzing their roles in skill-intensive and non-skill-intensive industries and household production [7]. - The structural employment contradictions are characterized by two aspects: the relative supply of high-education labor increases but fails to meet high-skill labor demands, while the relative supply of low-education labor decreases without a corresponding adjustment in low-skill labor demand, leading to rising employment costs for low-skill labor [7].

Core Viewpoint - The modernization of agriculture and rural areas is crucial for the overall modernization of China, with a focus on addressing the "three rural issues" as a top priority for the government [2][18]. Group 1: Food Security and Agricultural Production - Ensuring national food security is a top priority, with a target of stabilizing grain production at around 1.4 trillion jin by 2026, emphasizing quality and efficiency [4]. - The government aims to maintain stable grain planting areas while enhancing yield per unit area through a new round of actions to increase grain production capacity [4][5]. - There is a need to optimize agricultural production structures and promote the cultivation of high-quality grain varieties, particularly focusing on increasing soybean production to address food security gaps [4][5]. Group 2: Agricultural Capacity and Technology - Strengthening farmland protection and improving soil quality are essential for sustainable agricultural production [5]. - Enhancing agricultural technology and innovation is critical, with a focus on integrating technology into agricultural practices and promoting the use of advanced machinery [5]. - Establishing a robust agricultural disaster prevention and mitigation system is necessary to improve resilience against extreme weather events [5]. Group 3: Rural Development and Poverty Alleviation - A mechanism for preventing poverty and ensuring assistance is to be established, focusing on early identification and intervention for those at risk of falling back into poverty [8][9]. - The government emphasizes the importance of industry support for sustainable development, with a focus on long-term growth rather than short-term fixes [9]. - Continuous support for underdeveloped areas is necessary, with a focus on infrastructure development and enhancing public services [9][10]. Group 4: Rural Infrastructure and Living Conditions - Improving rural infrastructure and public services is vital for enhancing the quality of life in rural areas, including better access to education, healthcare, and utilities [13]. - The integration of various industries, such as agriculture, tourism, and culture, is encouraged to create a more diverse and resilient rural economy [12][13]. Group 5: Governance and Policy Implementation - Strengthening the leadership of the Communist Party in rural work is essential for effective policy implementation and coordination [18][20]. - There is a need for tailored approaches to rural governance that consider local conditions and promote farmer participation in decision-making [20]. - Continuous training and capacity building for rural officials are necessary to enhance their ability to implement agricultural and rural policies effectively [20].

文/中欧国际工商学院教授、中国首席经济学家论坛研究院院长 盛松成 ，宁波财 经学院会计学院讲师 汪恒 中国房地产正站在新旧模式转换的关键节点。"十五五"规划为行业明确 了"先化风险、再谋新路"的清晰路径。现阶段，须以稳住市场为前提，以 构建新模式为核心，以提升居住品质为根本，通过分层供给、因城施策、 财政协同等多维发力，推动房地产真正回归居住本源，实现从规模扩张向 质量提升的深刻转型。这不仅关乎行业自身可持续发展，更是中国经济行 稳致远的基本要求。 旧有的房地产发展模式具有鲜明的时代特征，基本符合过去我国快速城镇化进程的需要。旺盛的住房需求、多元的供给主 体、"土地财政"的支持以及金融体系的深度参与，共同推动了行业二十多年的高速增长。从短缺经济中崛起的中国房地产业牢牢 把握解决中国百姓不够住的这一历史命题，各参与方均以拉动投资为主要手段推动行业发展并带动经济增长。我国人均城镇住宅 建筑面积由1998年的18.7平方米上升到2023年的超过40平方米，以美国六分之一的人均GDP实现了三分之二的人均住房面积，房 地产业占GDP的比重由1998年的4.58%上升到2025年的5.92%。 去风险是当前行业发展第一要 ...

一、中国宏观经济金融展望 2025 年，国民经济保持稳中有进态势，高质量发展取得新成效， 现代产业体系建设持续推进，改革开放迈出新步伐，民生保障更加有 力，经济 社会发展主要目标圆满实现，"十四五"胜利收官。全年国 内生产总值 （ GDP ） 同比增长 5% ，经济总量突破 140 万亿元。2026 年经济持续稳 中向好有条件、有支撑。 一是经济平稳发展的基础不断夯实。 "十四五"时期，经济总量稳步增长，粮食产量连 续两年站稳 1.4 万亿斤的台阶，制造业增加值连续 16 年稳 居世界首位，我国成为 150 多个国家和地区的主要贸易伙伴，经济底盘更实、抗风险能力更强。 2025 年 12 月，制造业采购经理指数（ PMI ） 和非制造业商业活动指数双双重回扩张区间，经济稳中向好的积极因素不断积累。 二是新动能持续壮大。 2025 年，我国研发投入强度达到 2.8% ，首次超过 OECD 国家平均水平，创新指数排名进入全球前十，国际 专利申请量 连续 6 年位居全球第一，高技术制造业增加值占规模以上工业增加值比重达到 17.1% 。人工智能等新一代信息技术蓬勃发展，银发经济、冰雪 经济等持续升温，不断激发经济活 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of high-quality population development in the context of China's modernization, highlighting the need for a comprehensive population service system that integrates investment in both material and human resources to ensure sustainable social development [1][2][3]. Group 1: Population Development Trends - Since 1992, China's total fertility rate has been below the replacement level of 2.1, dropping to 1.3 in 2020, indicating a shift to ultra-low fertility levels [4]. - The aging population is rapidly increasing, with projections indicating that by 2025, the number of individuals aged 60 and above will exceed 320 million, and by 2035, it will surpass 400 million [5]. - The transition from population growth to decline is characterized by trends such as low birth rates, aging, and regional population disparities, necessitating a shift from balanced development to high-quality development in population support systems [3][4]. Group 2: Policy Recommendations - A comprehensive approach is required to address the challenges of low birth rates and an aging population, emphasizing the need for coordinated policies that enhance the quality of life and support for families [4][5]. - The establishment of a population service system that covers all demographics and life stages is crucial, focusing on the needs of both the elderly and children [7][9]. - The integration of economic and social policies is essential to enhance the effectiveness of population services, ensuring that they are accessible, equitable, and professional [10][11]. Group 3: Systemic Reforms - Systematic reforms are necessary to break down barriers in the population service system, ensuring that it is comprehensive and coordinated across various sectors [9][13]. - The article calls for a unified leadership approach to population service system construction, emphasizing the importance of integrating various policies and resources to support population development [15]. - Financial mechanisms need to be optimized to ensure sustainable funding for population services, including childcare and elderly care, while also addressing the need for skilled personnel in these sectors [16][17].

TSINGHUA Financial Review 清华金刚评论 TSINGHUA Financial Review 布 众保险董事会秘书 F = R "十五五"开局保险专栏 80 ■ ▼ I ITT FLA 7 7 文/ 瑞众保险董事会秘书 笪莹、董事会办公室公司治理处 王聪 新《公司法》对董事履职提出了新的要求，不仅对构建公平透明的市场环境具有重要意义，更为保险公司董事履职水平提升提供了 新的方向。在新《公司法》背景下，通过对保险公司董事履职评价机制进行研究，本文分析新《公司法》实施后保险公司董事履职 评价面临的问题并对董事履职评价机制提出优化设计建议，为进一步提升董事履职能力提供有益借鉴参考，并为完善中国特色现代 企业制度，提升保险公司综合竞争力，实现高质量发展提供有力支撑。 保险公司董事履职评价制度的发展历程，是我国金融机构公司治理现代化进程的重要缩影，历经从原则性规范到系统化机制的演进，形成了与保险 行业特性深度适配的制度体系。 （⼀）探索萌芽阶段（2010年前 ）： 义务框架初步确⽴ 这一时期尚未形成专门的履职评价制度，主要依托基础性法律构建董事义务框架。2005 年修订的《公司法》首次明确董事对 ...

文/ 建信信托有限责任公司财富管理业务部 周萱 "完善地方税、直接税体系，健全经营所得、资本所得、财产所得税收政 策，规范税收优惠政策，保持合理的宏观税负水平。坚决破除阻碍全国统 一大市场建设卡点堵点，完善有利于统一大市场建设的统计、财税、考核 制度，优化企业总部和分支机构、生产地和消费地利益分享。坚持扩大内 需，支持高新技术企业和科技型中小企业发展。"同时围绕统一的全国大 市场建设、科技创新、民生保障、绿色转型、促进消费等战略部署，配套 实施针对性税收调控措施。这表明，税务改革已成为衔接国家战略、市场 运行、个人生活的重要纽带，其根本导向是兼顾公平与效率，既服务于中 国式现代化大局，也深刻影响着微观主体的经营决策与财富布局。 十五五期间税务改革的方向 十五五规划勾勒出未来 5年我国税务改革的方向，将会在以下方面有重大的变化。 以统一大市场为导向，清理区域化的税收政策 。为破除全国统一大市场建设阻碍，将全面清理税收洼地、区域性税收补贴、违规税收返还、核定征收等 地方性税务减免措施。 2025年4月发布的《税收征管法（征求意见稿）》也反映了上述趋势。 "任何机关、单位和个人不得违反法律、行政法规和国务院 的规定 ...

2月1日出版的第3期《求是》杂志，发表了习近平总书记重要文章《走好中国特色金融发展之路，建设金融强国》。这篇重要文章，是习近平总书记 2024年1月16日在省部级主要领导干部推动金融高质量发展专题研讨班上讲话的节录。金融是国民经济的血脉，是国家核心竞争力的重要组成部分。加 快建设金融强国是全面建成社会主义现代化强国、推动高质量发展的必然要求。 建设金融强国目标的提出，赋予了金融行业前所未有的历史责任与时代机遇。基金行业连接着广大投资者、实体企业与资本市场，其健康发展对于优化 融资结构、推动创新资本形成、促进资本市场稳定、增加居民财产性收入具有不可替代的作用。 为洞察全球基金行业动态，剖析发展特征，并评估中国基金业的金融服务效能，近日清华大学五道口金融学院《清华金融评论》编辑部与资产管理研究 中心、财富管理研究中心、全球母基金研究中心联合发布《2025基金行业发展现状与投资趋势研究报告》。 该报告主体内容分为 "全球基金行业发展分析" 与 "全球投资市场专题分析" 两大部分， 重点关注基金行业在高质量发展进程中涌现的新思维与新动 向，以期为行业提供有益参考，助力中国基金业行稳致远。 第一部分： 全球基金行业发展 ...

TSINGHUA Financial Review 清华金融坪论 全球债务持续高增长 文 / 清华大学五道口金融学院讲席教授 陆毅 ，中国石油集团管理干部学院助理研究员 李墨凡 在地缘冲突加剧、全球化重构等不确定性因素和人口老龄化、经济增速换挡等结构性因素影响下，全球政府倾向于推高债务以稳 定增长、对冲公共风险。国际主要经济体的公共债务进一步攀升、政府负债率高企，导致全球债务规模持续膨胀，加之债务期限 全球债务风险的持续累积，既是外生不确定性冲击的产物，也是内生结构性因素调整的结果。因此，破解债务困局的关键在于双 轮驱动：一方面，须完善全球经济治理体系，弱化外生冲击的频率与强度，构筑债务治理的协同框架，优化国际政策协调机制， 以制度性安排提升合作的可预期性；另一方面，应提升宏观经济治理效能，培育经济增长的内生动力，通过优化财政资源配置、 提高债务资金使用效率增强偿债能力，深化金融市场改革，完善债务风险防控与监管体系，阻断系统性风险的传导，依托科技与 产业创新引领新一轮增长周期，在发展中实现化债与提质并行。 在此背景下，中国秉持"在发展中化债、在化债中发展"的总体方略，确保债务风险总体可控，政府负债率显著低于主 ...