多国央行：警惕稳定币风险 欧洲央行行长克里斯蒂娜·拉加德近期于议会听证会中指出，私人发行的竞争性稳定币存在价值锚定失 效风险，可能引发银行存款迁移效应，并强调此类资产"将对货币政策传导机制及金融体系稳定性构成 系统性威胁"。她同时呼吁加速数字欧元建设进程，将其定位为维护欧洲货币主权自主性的战略关键 。 英国央行行长安德鲁·贝利在多次公开声明中持续表达对稳定币的审慎立场。其主张商业银行应优先发 展代币化存款（即法定货币的数字化形态），而非涉足稳定币发行领域。核心论据在于稳定币可能引发 存款迁移效应，导致银行体系可贷资金规模收缩。 韩国央行行长李昌镛明确警示稳定币对跨境资本流动管理的潜在冲击。直言，在新兴市场及小型开放经 济体中，稳定币的规模化流通可能触发资本外逃压力与货币政策传导阻滞，构成系统性风险引爆点。 文/ 《 清华金融评论 》 杨曦 2 0 25年6月起，全球金融体系持续经历稳定币监管浪潮。香港《稳定币条 例》正式实施与美国《GENIUS法案》完成总统签署，标志着主流经济体 监管框架初步确立，引发市场对行业爆发性增长的普遍预期。然而在市场 情绪高涨之际，多国监管机构与金融机构对稳定币发展前景公开表明审慎 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article emphasizes the need for a unified standard, improved data foundation, product innovation, and policy coordination to promote the development of transition finance in China, aiding in the achievement of the "dual carbon" goals [1] Group 2 - The global climate governance context highlights the necessity for financing that covers transition activities, as traditional green finance primarily supports clean energy and may not meet the substantial funding needs for high-carbon industries transitioning to low-carbon [3] - The G20 Transition Finance Framework provides guiding principles for global transition finance development, addressing issues such as defining transition activities, disclosure requirements, diversification of financial tools, incentive policies, and ensuring a just transition [6] Group 3 - In China, the rapid development of green industries under the "dual carbon" goals necessitates simultaneous low-carbon transitions in high-carbon industries to avoid bottlenecks in renewable energy demand and mitigate risks of revenue decline and potential bankruptcies in high-carbon sectors [8] - The People's Bank of China is actively promoting the development of transition finance directories, having completed initial drafts for coal power, steel, building materials, and agriculture, which outline low-carbon transition paths and standards for financial institutions [8] - Local governments in China are piloting transition finance initiatives, achieving significant progress in areas such as directory compilation, carbon account construction, and product innovation, leading to rapid growth in transition financing [8]

Group 1: Artificial Intelligence and Economic Integration - The integration of artificial intelligence (AI) with the real economy is becoming increasingly evident, serving as a new engine for economic growth and driving the transformation of traditional industries [5][6] - AI technology is enhancing productivity and optimizing resource allocation across various sectors, indicating a deep collaboration between technology and industry [6][7] - China is taking proactive steps in global AI governance, advocating for AI to be treated as an "international public good" and promoting "intelligent equity" to assist developing countries [6][7] Group 2: Securities Regulatory Environment - The China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) identified three certainties for maintaining a stable and healthy market: the certainty of high-quality economic development, the certainty of macro policy expectations, and the certainty of asset valuation recovery [7][8] - These certainties signal a transition from quantity to quality in the economy, with technological innovation and industrial upgrading as core drivers for long-term market stability [8] Group 3: Hainan Free Trade Port Development - The Hainan Free Trade Port is set to officially start its full island customs operation on December 18, 2025, marking a significant step in expanding openness and establishing a policy framework for the free trade port [9] - The customs operation will facilitate the movement of goods and people, enhancing travel experiences and services without hindering access to the mainland [9] Group 4: Agricultural Product Consumption Promotion - A new policy initiative from ten government departments aims to boost agricultural product consumption through 23 specific measures, emphasizing the importance of agriculture in the national economy [10] - The initiative seeks to address supply-demand imbalances and improve circulation efficiency, thereby stimulating related industries and promoting rural consumption upgrades [10] Group 5: Fiscal Budget Overview - In the first half of the year, China's general public budget revenue was 11.56 trillion yuan, a slight year-on-year decline of 0.3%, while expenditure reached 14.13 trillion yuan, an increase of 3.4% [11][12] - The fiscal strategy reflects a proactive approach to stabilize growth and support livelihoods, despite challenges such as weak land finance and uneven tax recovery [12]

Core Viewpoint - The World Bank, as a multilateral development bank, is undergoing significant reforms to adapt to global challenges such as public health crises, geopolitical conflicts, climate issues, and food security, while facing potential disruptions from the return of unilateralism under the Trump administration [1][4]. Group 1: Structure and Evolution of the World Bank - The World Bank has evolved from a single institution to a multilateral development group, including IBRD, IDA, IFC, MIGA, and ICSID, and has undergone multiple reforms over the past 80 years [2]. - The leadership of the World Bank is influenced by the U.S. due to its veto power, with major reforms often initiated or approved by the U.S. government [2]. Group 2: Key Reforms and Initiatives - The World Bank's vision and mission have been expanded to address global challenges, changing its vision from "a world free of poverty" to "creating a world free of poverty on a livable planet" [5]. - The World Bank plans to increase its financing capacity by $100 billion through a reduction in its capital adequacy ratio from 20% to 19%, allowing for an annual release of $4 billion for climate-related projects [6]. - The World Bank aims to mobilize private capital and domestic resources to support sustainable development goals, with potential financing capacity increases of up to $50 billion over the next decade [7]. - A historic agreement for capital increase was reached in 2018, allowing for an increase of $75 billion in paid-in capital for IBRD, enhancing its total lending capacity by approximately $100 billion [8][10]. Group 3: Operational Changes - The World Bank is focusing on improving loan operational efficiency and enhancing coordination within its group to achieve synergies [10]. - A new framework for joint financing with the Asian Development Bank aims to streamline project processes and provide quicker results for borrowers [11]. - The World Bank has implemented a scoring method for international procurement to assess quality and sustainability, promoting environmentally and socially responsible practices [11]. Group 4: Impact of U.S. Political Changes - The return of Trump to the White House may hinder the progress of World Bank reforms, as his administration favors a reduction in funding and a focus on core functions of poverty alleviation and economic growth [12][13]. - The Trump administration's approach contrasts with the Biden administration's willingness to increase funding for the World Bank, raising concerns about the future direction of the institution [12][13].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the impact of the ongoing tariff war initiated by Trump on China's domestic prices, highlighting the significant downward pressure on prices due to insufficient domestic demand and external shocks from tariffs [2][4]. Group 1: Impact of Tariff War on Prices - The Producer Price Index (PPI) in June 2025 fell to -3.6%, the lowest since August 2023, while the Consumer Price Index (CPI) remained around 0, indicating persistent low price levels in China [4][6]. - The tariff war has exacerbated the downward pressure on domestic prices, with global economic growth expectations declining and commodity prices, such as oil, dropping significantly [5][19]. - The decline in international oil prices has had a notable input drag on domestic prices, with PPI for the petroleum industry showing significant year-on-year declines [6][19]. Group 2: Export Dynamics and Price Changes - Direct exports to the U.S. have decreased significantly, with certain goods like textiles and furniture experiencing price drops due to increased tariffs [7][8]. - Export prices have fallen sharply, with the average price of clothing imports from China to the U.S. dropping by 17.4% and 8.3% in April and May 2025, respectively [8][11]. - The shift of exports to domestic sales has led to increased competition and price reductions in the domestic market, particularly in labor-intensive sectors [21][22]. Group 3: Future Price Trends and Policy Recommendations - The article suggests that the price trajectory in the second half of 2025 will depend on domestic consumption and investment policies, while external shocks from the tariff war remain a concern [18][20]. - Recommendations include expanding non-U.S. market exports, supporting foreign trade enterprises, and preventing excessive price competition in the domestic market to stabilize prices [26][28][29]. - The need to enhance domestic effective demand is emphasized as a critical factor in addressing the ongoing low price levels in China [29].

文/ 国家开发银行资金部总经理 谢志军 ，国家开发银行资金部市场发展处处长 周俊桃 深入研究美国贸易战历史，总结贸易战发动的深层次背景、措施过程、各 国应对方式以及对全球经济金融与国际治理体系的影响，对当前我国积极 应对此次中美贸易摩擦具有重要的意义。从全球治理与国际关系来看，贸 易战成为全球秩序重构的催化剂，大国博弈从均衡走向失衡，再去寻找新 的均衡。 美国历史上五次主要贸易战 镀金时代麦金莱系列关税（1890—1900） 第一阶段，1890年共和党推行《麦金莱关税法案》，所有进口商品平均税率提高至历史新高49.5%，提 高钢铁、纺织、锡板和羊毛等制成品的关税以保护国内产业。第二阶段，1894年民主党推出《威尔逊- 戈尔曼关税法案》，名义上降低部分关税，但贸易政策保护主义立场未显著改变。第三阶段，1897年共 和党总统麦金莱在美西战争前推出提高关税的《丁利关税法案》，关税功能从保护产业扩展到增加收入 资助战争，超高税率引发各国报复性关税，最终导致贸易战。 金融市场表现 麦金莱关税对金融市场产生强烈冲击。1888年至1890年5月，道琼斯平均指数处于牛市，而当市场预期 关税法案极有可能通过时，股市从1890年 ...

7月24日，中国证监会召开证监会系统党的建设暨2025年年中工作会议， 深入学习贯彻习近平总书记关于党的建设的重要思想、关于党的自我革命 的重要思想，认真贯彻落实党的二十届三中全会、中央经济工作会议等一 系列会议决策部署，全面落实金融系统党的建设工作会议要求，总结上半 年工作，分析当前形势，部署下一阶段证监会系统党的建设和改革发展重 点任务。证监会党委书记、主席吴清出席会议并讲话。 会议认为，今年以来，面对复杂严峻风险考验，证监会系统认真贯彻落实党中央、国务院决策部署，紧 扣防风险、强监管、促高质量发展主线，协同各方持续推动新"国九条"和资本市场"1+N"政策文件落地 见效，打好政策"组合拳"，全力维护市场稳定运行；推动中长期资金入市、公募基金改革、科创 板"1+6"政策措施、上市公司并购重组等一批标志性改革取得突破；强化监管"长牙带刺"、有棱有角， 从严打击财务造假、操纵市场、内幕交易等严重违法违规行为；严控增量、妥处存量，稳步推进债券违 约、私募基金、融资平台等重点领域风险化解和持续收敛。经过各方共同努力，资本市场经受住了超预 期的外部冲击，市场韧性增强，预期改善，回稳向好的态势不断巩固。 在此过程中，证 ...

Core Viewpoint - The passage discusses the recent approval of three key cryptocurrency bills by the U.S. House of Representatives, which are expected to significantly impact capital formation and drive innovation in blockchain technology, thereby reshaping the global digital asset competitive landscape [1][2]. Group 1: Legislative Overview - The week of July 2025 was designated as "Cryptocurrency Week" by the U.S. legislative body, during which three core digital asset bills were submitted for review [2]. - The "GENIUS Act" was passed with overwhelming support, establishing a regulatory framework for stablecoins, which will accelerate their application in payment and settlement scenarios [2]. - The "CLARITY Act" and the "Anti-CBDC Surveillance National Act" faced legislative hurdles but were ultimately approved and sent to the Senate for further consideration [2]. Group 2: Regulatory Framework - The three bills together form a comprehensive regulatory framework for the cryptocurrency industry in the U.S., aiming to enhance the dollar's influence in the global digital currency process [2]. - The regulatory matrix delineates clear responsibilities: the "GENIUS Act" focuses on stablecoin regulation, while the "CLARITY Act" introduces a technical protocol audit framework for blockchain networks [2]. - The "Anti-CBDC Surveillance National Act" prohibits the issuance of central bank digital currencies (CBDCs), ensuring the innovation and competitive vitality of stablecoins [2]. Group 3: CLARITY Act Details - The "CLARITY Act" establishes a framework for regulatory jurisdiction over digital assets, distinguishing between "digital asset securities" (regulated by the SEC) and "digital commodities" (regulated by the CFTC) [5]. - It introduces a "decentralization maturity assessment system" that adjusts regulatory intensity based on the governance structure's decentralization level [5]. - This act aims to fill the regulatory gap in blockchain technology in the U.S. and establish a compliance foundation for stablecoin infrastructure [5]. Group 4: Anti-CBDC Surveillance National Act - The "Anti-CBDC Surveillance National Act" anchors the U.S. strategic direction in cryptocurrency regulation, emphasizing the protection of private sector innovation and market autonomy [7]. - It explicitly prohibits the Federal Reserve from directly issuing or managing retail CBDCs, requiring congressional authorization for any government token projects [7]. - The act aims to mitigate the risks associated with programmable currencies, thereby establishing a legal boundary for citizens' financial privacy [7].

Core Viewpoint - The retail asset business of commercial banks in China is currently underperforming, which is seen as a temporary phenomenon. Strategies are suggested to better understand the business logic of retail assets and to focus on risk management models that emphasize the primary repayment source [1][14]. Summary by Sections Performance of Retail Asset Business - The retail asset business, which includes housing mortgage loans, personal consumption loans, personal business loans, and credit card services, is facing significant pressure in 2024, characterized by a slowdown in personal loan growth, declining yields, and rising non-performing loan (NPL) ratios. The growth rate of personal loans dropped from over 10% before 2021 to 4.89% in 2022 and further to 3.69% in 2024. The average NPL ratio for personal loans increased from below 1% before 2021 to 1.10% in 2022 and 1.51% in 2024, marking a rise of over 65% compared to 2021 [2][3][5]. Characteristics of Retail Asset Business - Retail asset business is characterized by light capital attributes, risk diversification advantages, and weak cyclical features. The light capital nature is reinforced by new regulations effective from 2024, which lower risk weights for various types of retail loans. The risk diversification is due to the broad customer base, minimizing the impact of individual defaults. The weak cyclical nature allows retail assets to provide stability during economic fluctuations, as evidenced by historical data from the U.S. banking sector [8][9][10]. Underperformance as a Temporary Phenomenon - The underperformance of retail asset business since 2022 is attributed to a supply-demand imbalance in the economy. The real estate market's downturn and weak consumer demand have led to reduced consumer confidence and spending. This imbalance has persisted for over a year, affecting the performance of personal business loans and consumption loans, particularly for small and micro enterprises [13][14][16].

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of carbon neutrality and the investment opportunities it presents, particularly in the context of global and Chinese strategies for achieving carbon peak and neutrality [1][2]. Summary by Sections Section 1: Global Perspective on Carbon Peak and Neutrality - The book provides a comprehensive overview of global climate change, energy technologies, and economic transformations related to carbon neutrality [4][7]. Section 2: China's Path to Carbon Peak and Neutrality - It outlines China's specific goals and policies for achieving carbon peak and neutrality, highlighting the legal and institutional frameworks necessary for implementation [5][7]. Section 3: Development of Carbon Markets - The text discusses the construction and evolution of carbon markets, including key points and international participation opportunities [6][7]. Section 4: Carbon Asset Management Theory and Practice - It covers the theoretical foundations and practical applications of carbon asset management, emphasizing the importance of effective management systems [5][7]. Section 5: Investment and Financing Systems for Carbon Neutrality - The book details the investment and financing frameworks that support carbon neutrality initiatives, showcasing typical case studies [6][7]. Section 6: Typical Cases of Carbon Neutrality Investment and Financing - It presents various case studies that illustrate successful investment strategies in the carbon neutrality sector, providing practical insights for stakeholders [6][7].